Value of: Alexis Lafrenière in a trade

[pld459666]

They don't have the $ to do so.

If they match they can't extend KAM

Buying out Goodrow gives the Rangers 3.8 in room thisbyear and 3.7 next

They have options

 

[hawksrule]

Why today? When people compare value and say similar trade to Dach (whether that happens or not), they're comparing it at the time he was traded. Not for what he's done since. That's a little unfair, no?

From day one Dach showed more skill and at least had flashes indicating he could turn into a top line player. That’s the difference between the two.

 

[Qward]

Want to swap alex's?

 

[bernmeister]

Would the Rangers match a 4.2 mil offer sheet or take the second round pick as compensation?

Rs match, IF nec trade him, and get more than a 2nd, prob way more

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Rs match, IF nec trade him, and get more than a 2nd, prob way more

If this scenario occurred, Laf’s value drops. A 30-40 point $4.2 mill winger with a high qualifying offer is not a very valuable asset.

 

[bernmeister]

If this scenario occurred, Laf’s value drops. A 30-40 point $4.2 mill winger with a high qualifying offer is not a very valuable asset.

Falsely assumes no increase in pts which happens if they listen to bern and make kid line 2nd or even 1st line; mo mins = mo pts, + they are improving already w/better chemistry.

 

[mydnyte]

What would the Rangers be asking for in return?

he looked good in his 1st playoffs, after looking bad that whole season, and he's regressed since, and was as poor in the playoffs this season, as his regular season.
NYR are better off hanging onto him, as he is a Puljujärvi in the making, and a 3rd will be an overpay,
Someone would take a flyer on him, and he'll likely disappoint, just like Puljujärvi has.

 

[TageGod]

Bryson and a 7th

 

[eXile3]

I bet if the Rangers gave him another minute of pp time a game you would see him closer to his potential. For a guy who’s skating seems to be an issue the pp seems like a good place to show his talent.

Right now it looks like he’s getting 2nd unit minutes.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

To paraphrase Colonel Potter, that is 100%, grade A, bull cookies.

General Steel also played by Harry Morgan should weigh in

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Falsely assumes no increase in pts which happens if they listen to bern and make kid line 2nd or even 1st line; mo mins = mo pts, + they are improving already w/better chemistry.

Weird how he didn’t really do that after he got top 6 time last season.

I’m not saying he can’t/won’t breakout, just going off the evidence so far.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I bet if the Rangers gave him another minute of pp time a game you would see him closer to his potential. For a guy who’s skating seems to be an issue the pp seems like a good place to show his talent.

Right now it looks like he’s getting 2nd unit minutes.

The biggest issue is that it seems like he kind of sucks on the Powerplay, at least right now.

He's played 276.4 minutes on the powerplay in his career, 111.4 this most recent season, and he has just 6 Powerplay points in his career (3 goals, 3 assists) with 4 points this most recent season (3 goals, 1 assist). That's a pretty terrible rate (2.2 points per 60 this most recent season), especially for a guy praised for his skill. Compare that to how Tim Stutzle produced 5.4 points per 60 on the Powerplay this most recent, after producing 6.1 points per 60 on the powerplay the previous season. I know Rangers make all the excuses in the world that he only plays 2nd unit and "puck left the zone" or whatever, but it seems pretty clear he hasn't shown enough in his more limited minutes to prove he deserves more powerplay time. Surely his rate could improve if his time on the Powerplay was more consistent, but he does need to show more in that area.

 

[TGWL]

The biggest issue is that it seems like he kind of sucks on the Powerplay, at least right now.

He's played 276.4 minutes on the powerplay in his career, 111.4 this most recent season, and he has just 6 Powerplay points in his career (3 goals, 3 assists) with 4 points this most recent season (3 goals, 1 assist). That's a pretty terrible rate (2.2 points per 60 this most recent season), especially for a guy praised for his skill. Compare that to how Tim Stutzle produced 5.4 points per 60 on the Powerplay this most recent, after producing 6.1 points per 60 on the powerplay the previous season. I know Rangers make all the excuses in the world that he only plays 2nd unit and "puck left the zone" or whatever, but it seems pretty clear he hasn't shown enough in his more limited minutes to prove he deserves more powerplay time. Surely his rate could improve if his time on the Powerplay was more consistent, but he does need to show more in that area.

When you look at the entire PP 2 and you see it's not just Laf, the excuses kinda' line up, no?Up until we traded for Tarasenko and Kane, PP were given the last remaining tick down seconds while the puck is all the way down their zone. It's not an excuse. It's what actually happened. I'm not saying he'll shine. But comparing minutes to production on the powerplay can't really give you an overall picture. Powerplay #2 production didn't just limit Laf, so we can't just say Laf was bad.

With that said, I think most NYR fans aren't blind to Laf will never be a top line winger, putting up close to a point per game with us. (It's funny to see a poster call him soft when the problem is he's playing like a grinder, producing at a 3rd line rate.)

 

[WarriorofTime]

PP were given the last remaining tick down seconds while the puck is all the way down their zone. It's not an excuse. It's what actually happened.

I mean that sort of feeling is consistent with basically every 2nd unit in the League, bit 276.4 "tick down" minutes is basically impossible.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

TML
Nylander with 8x8.5 extension

NYR
LaFreniere
2024 1st that drops to a second if he scores more than 55 points in is first year with TML

If the Rangers can't afford to keep Lafreniere, how on Earth would they afford Nylander at 8.5M??

 

[Justicebork]

Rangers are headed towards a situation where they have like $6mm to use on 9 roster spots. Who cares what you do when you're in that situation? You're effed to begin with, might as well have fun with it.

If the Rangers can't afford to keep Lafreniere, how on Earth would they afford Nylander at 8.5M??

 

[smoneil]

Weird how he didn’t really do that after he got top 6 time last season.

I’m not saying he can’t/won’t breakout, just going off the evidence so far.

On the contrary, when Laf got a brief run in the top six, he went ppg. It wasn't a long stretch, but then he doesn't spend much time in the top six (behind Kreider and Panarin, and none of the three seem comfortable playing RW).

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

On the contrary, when Laf got a brief run in the top six, he went ppg. It wasn't a long stretch, but then he doesn't spend much time in the top six (behind Kreider and Panarin, and none of the three seem comfortable playing RW).

Maybe we are discussing different times in the season? I recall he started in the top 6 in the beginning of the season and did not produce.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

On the contrary, when Laf got a brief run in the top six, he went ppg. It wasn't a long stretch, but then he doesn't spend much time in the top six (behind Kreider and Panarin, and none of the three seem comfortable playing RW).

This is false.

His 5v5 p/60 plummeted when he was taken away from Chytil this year:

Chytil (662 mins)
1.99 p/60

Trocheck (248 mins)
0.78 p/60

Zibanejad (101 mins)
1.78 p/60

Total without Chytil (420 mins)
0.99 p/60

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8482109

 

[smoneil]

I mean that sort of feeling is consistent with basically every 2nd unit in the League, bit 276.4 "tick down" minutes is basically impossible.

You're using his cumulative career minutes. To add to @TGWL 's excellent post, Laf's use was probably worst even among the second unit. Panarin was notorious for staying out for the entire two minutes, or only going off as the puck went the other way so he wouldn't have to defend/retrieve. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'd guess that Laf has even less average PP time than the rest of the second unit.

Another aspect to consider--Laf wasn't ready for NHL play in his rookie year (especially at the beginning). Most Rangers fans will tell you that he should have started in Hartford. Those first 20 games? He got just under 42 minutes of PP time. That's more than double the rate of his full career number.

To be perfectly honest, we don't really have any idea how good/bad Laf is on the PP because his use there, much like the rest of the second unit, has been so haphazard. And yes, you are right that this is true of most second units, but most top draft picks are spoon-fed PP minutes to aid in their development.

 

[smoneil]

This is false.

His 5v5 p/60 plummeted when he was taken away from Chytil this year:

Chytil (662 mins)
1.99 p/60

Trocheck (248 mins)
0.78 p/60

Zibanejad (101 mins)
1.78 p/60

Total without Chytil (420 mins)
0.99 p/60

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8482109

I know the Chytil line got hot for a while, where all three of the kids were putting up points (in January/February).

To be perfectly honest, I might be thinking of last year? There was a stretch where Laf played with Zibanejad for ~10 games or so, put up around a ppg (I just went back and checked, and I was thinking about last year. He had a short stretch in late February/early March on the RW with Kreider and Zibanejad).

 

[Lt Dan]

To the Kings: Alex LaFreniere

To the Rangers: Alex Laferriere

 

[UnSandvich]

I mean that sort of feeling is consistent with basically every 2nd unit in the League, bit 276.4 "tick down" minutes is basically impossible.

There is something else to consider though, that non-NYR fans might not think of. Jacob Trouba was the PPQB for the Rangers for most of the year. The difference bt Laf’s numbers on the PP with and without Trouba is fairly significant.

CF/60:
With Trouba: 74.26
Without Trouba: 113.13

FF/60:
With: 59.22
Without: 90.5

Shots For/60:
With: 43.24
Without: 55.31

Goals For/60:
With: 4.7
Without: 6.28

xGF/60:
With: 5.75
Without: 9.55

 

[smoneil]

Maybe we are discussing different times in the season? I recall he started in the top 6 in the beginning of the season and did not produce.

He was in the top six for about 10 to 12 games or so, playing his off wing with Trocheck and Panarin. He did fairly well, putting up .5ppg through his first ten games (not bad considering he was playing out of position and getting scant PP time). Then Gallant got to line juggling and dropped him down.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You're using his cumulative career minutes. To add to @TGWL 's excellent post, Laf's use was probably worst even among the second unit. Panarin was notorious for staying out for the entire two minutes, or only going off as the puck went the other way so he wouldn't have to defend/retrieve. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'd guess that Laf has even less average PP time than the rest of the second unit.

Another aspect to consider--Laf wasn't ready for NHL play in his rookie year (especially at the beginning). Most Rangers fans will tell you that he should have started in Hartford. Those first 20 games? He got just under 42 minutes of PP time. That's more than double the rate of his full career number.

To be perfectly honest, we don't really have any idea how good/bad Laf is on the PP because his use there, much like the rest of the second unit, has been so haphazard. And yes, you are right that this is true of most second units, but most top draft picks are spoon-fed PP minutes to aid in their development.

I do agree that he would likely be able to find more consistency on the Powerplay and thus produce at a better rate, with a more steady spoonfeeding of minutes. I just disagree that a player that played 111.4 minutes on the powerplay last season was "only" getting the time where the puck left the zone and there's only like 10 seconds left (the time it takes to re-establish). That's just not really possible with that much time. The Rangers had 245 Powerplay Opportunities on the season, on the whole their PP% was 7th best in the League. If the 2nd Unit was very UNPRODUCTIVE as a whole, that means the 1st unit was likely very productive. Lafreniere didn't seem to have the ability to boost the 2nd Unit up to a more productive level (can't blame him entirely, but it doesn't appear he was helping given his low rate) and that combined with a productive 1st Unit suggests he didn't do anything to really earn a greater Powerplay role.

A broken Patrick Kane joined the Rangers at the deadline and produced 1 more Powerplay for the Rangers in less than half the total Powerplay ice time than Lafreniere did. To be a top player, Lafreniere is going to need to figure out how to produce on the powerplay more.