Value of: Alexis Lafrenière in a trade

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Laffy worth a mid 2nd LOL. Some people are really out of their minds here. Said it once and ill say it again, hfboards is the only place on earth where the majority of people would prefer 3 1st’s rather than a cup

Well ya, those 3 1sts could be worth anything. Maybe even a cup!

 

[hawksrule]

Dach is nearly a year older.

Dach played almost 3 and a half minutes more per game (and significantly more time on the PP)

Dach only scored 22 even strength points to Lafreniere's 35

Dach's shooting % this season was nearly double that of his previous three seasons (which had been pretty consistent, making this year look like a aberration)

Laf's shooting % this season was a third lower than the previous two seasons (again, making it seem like this year was the aberration)

Dach plays with Montreal's best players. Lafreniere plays with the Rangers' 3rd line.

Ultimately it doesn't matter. Laf is not a bust. If he never improves from where he is right now (which is a stupid thing to assume of a 21 year old player), he's still an NHL player. No team is going to offer more than a low-ball or, at best, a lateral trade for him, and the Rangers have no need to accept even fair value, as they would already have a player of that caliber (Laf) who has a chance to become even more.

Running out the current group (with the vets taking up all the minutes and starving the kids of the ice time they need to develop) doesn't work. I'd rather retain on Panarin, bring back a bunch of assets by moving him, and thereby free up the minutes Laf needs on the PP and in the top six. If Laf still doesn't develop, oh well. It isn't like the current group was going to win the Cup anyway, and at least then you'd have the assets in the fold from trading Panarin.

Dach is a far better skater, far better passer, and has the much higher hockey iq. As the poster you responded to said, he’s shown flashes from the very beginning. His value is so much higher than Lafreniere, it’s not close.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

He had a solid season last year - and has shown steady improvement season over season. Rangers would be fools to sell low now.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Garland @ $3 million cap hit ($2 mill retained) + 3rd or Klimovich for Lafreniere.

 

[Boxertim]

Why not trade for Dubois? Does that trade work?

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

What would the Rangers be asking for in return?

What do the rangers need? Defensive upgrade? Stars who show up in playoffs?

I think that’s the better question, and why it’d make no sense to move him. They aren’t getting their needs from trading Laf, so why bother? His value is low, potential is still there and I’m not even particularly a fan of his. Just don’t get how it’d help em.

 

[jellybeans]

Top 10 picks (plural) and top tier prospect is staring point? How about a Habs 5OA + Owen Beck + FLA 1st ++? Would that do it? I know FLA's pick is a late first but maybe we can add our 2nd to sweeten the deal?

Are you ok i think you need help.

 

[LionsHeart]

Laf is one of those players where the team acquiring him would have to give up more than they’d like, but to the Rangers he’s still a good player with untapped potential and cheap during a cap crunchy.

 

[Bizz]

I wouldn't even waste a conditional 7th on the verified bust.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Just as a reminder, the closest situation/precedent in recent memory was Yakupov. He was traded 4 years post-draft as a 23 year old, for a nothing prospect in Pochiro and a conditional 3rd round pick (turned into a 2nd if Yakupov scored 15 goals, which he did not).

At the time of that trade Yakupov’s career production was 0.44 PPG (111 points in 252 games played). Granted, I believe he was given more top 6 time and opportunities than Laf has received as Edmonton had much worse rosters than NYR have assembled.

Laf is 3 years post-draft and will be 22 years old to start next season. He currently has a career production of 0.42 PPG (91 points in 216 games played). He’s essentially one year away from very similar circumstances as the Yakupov trade.

If you believe the Yakupov trade was fair value or has any influence, NYR are likely looking at the value of a 2nd + B prospect. But people will just laugh emoji this post because homerism and draft hype led them astray.

 

[mm11]

kid is gonna be a star soon enough. Watch out NHL and watch out haters.

 

[bernmeister]

Have they ever listened to bern? Nieves still isnt 1C last i checked.

And they have paid the price for wrongly ignoring bern, usually proven correct in hindsight, including as to trying Nieves at pivot w/Kreid + Zib as Ws, which being the top line would make him the de facto 1C at that time.
I will repudiate any/all efforts by you to suggest false narrative.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Just as a reminder, the closest situation/precedent in recent memory was Yakupov. He was traded 4 years post-draft as a 23 year old, for a nothing prospect in Pochiro and a conditional 3rd round pick (turned into a 2nd if Yakupov scored 15 goals, which he did not).

At the time of that trade Yakupov’s career production was 0.44 PPG (111 points in 252 games played). Granted, I believe he was given more top 6 time and opportunities than Laf has received as Edmonton had much worse rosters than NYR have assembled.

Laf is 3 years post-draft and will be 22 years old to start next season. He currently has a career production of 0.42 PPG (91 points in 216 games played). He’s essentially one year away from very similar circumstances as the Yakupov trade.

If you believe the Yakupov trade was fair value or has any influence, NYR are likely looking at the value of a 2nd + B prospect. But people will just laugh emoji this post because homerism and draft hype led them astray.

Raw number output doesn’t tell the whole story.

Yakupov peaked in his rookie season and went downhill from there, never being able to recreate the success he found in his freshman campaign.

If you haven’t noticed, Lafreniere‘s numbers have steadily increased year over year showing progression in his game over his 3 years in the league - the situations are completely different re: Yakupov and Lafreniere.

If Ridly Greig came into next year and scored 39 points in 80 games, Senators fans would be esctatic about that. He was in the same draft class as Lafreniere, has only played a few NHL games and I doubt you’d find any Sens fans that would trade him for a 2nd and ”B” Prospect.

I feel like you’re getting caught up on a narrative here - Lafreniere is a dissapointing selection at this point in time, but he is absolutuey Worth more than Yakupov at this point in their respective careers.

I‘d like to see what Laffy can do under a new coach this season, I think it will be great for his game. Okay

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Raw number output doesn’t tell the whole story.

Yakupov peaked in his rookie season and went downhill from there, never being able to recreate the success he found in his freshman campaign.

If you haven’t noticed, Lafreniere‘s numbers have steadily increased year over year showing progression in his game over his 3 years in the league - the situations are completely different re: Yakupov and Lafreniere.

If Ridly Greig came into next year and scored 39 points in 80 games, Senators fans would be esctatic about that. He was in the same draft class as Lafreniere, has only played a few NHL games and I doubt you’d find any Sens fans that would trade him for a 2nd and ”B” Prospect.

I feel like you’re getting caught up on a narrative here - Lafreniere is a dissapointing selection at this point in time, but he is absolutuey Worth more than Yakupov at this point in their respective careers.

I‘d like to see what Laffy can do under a new coach this season, I think it will be great for his game. Okay

I acknowledge this and agree.

To be fair, my proposal was a clear upgrade on what Yakupov returned. 2nd (potentially high if coming from a bad team) + B prospect (likely recentish 2nd round pick) >>> 3rd (from a playoff team) + a busting 4th round prospect.

I am not saying NYR should do this. But it’s a gamble (for both sides entertaining such a trade) as Laf could easily be diminishing returns and his value will drop exponentially over the next couple seasons. I think my Garland trade above made more sense for NYR from a competitive standpoint.

 

[Price is Wright]

I‘d like to see what Laffy can do under a new coach this season, I think it will be great for his game. Okay

You don't even know who the new coach is so you can't predict how it'll be for his game.

 

[pld459666]

Dach is nearly a year older.

Dach played almost 3 and a half minutes more per game (and significantly more time on the PP)

Dach only scored 22 even strength points to Lafreniere's 35

Dach's shooting % this season was nearly double that of his previous three seasons (which had been pretty consistent, making this year look like a aberration)

Laf's shooting % this season was a third lower than the previous two seasons (again, making it seem like this year was the aberration)

Dach plays with Montreal's best players. Lafreniere plays with the Rangers' 3rd line.

Ultimately it doesn't matter. Laf is not a bust. If he never improves from where he is right now (which is a stupid thing to assume of a 21 year old player), he's still an NHL player. No team is going to offer more than a low-ball or, at best, a lateral trade for him, and the Rangers have no need to accept even fair value, as they would already have a player of that caliber (Laf) who has a chance to become even more.

Running out the current group (with the vets taking up all the minutes and starving the kids of the ice time they need to develop) doesn't work. I'd rather retain on Panarin, bring back a bunch of assets by moving him, and thereby free up the minutes Laf needs on the PP and in the top six. If Laf still doesn't develop, oh well. It isn't like the current group was going to win the Cup anyway, and at least then you'd have the assets in the fold from trading Panarin.

Great post.

Folks love to ignore important facts and context.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Prob not worth what rangers fans will want…. But if he came at a reasonable price a lot of teams would have interest

 

[ZDH]

Don't see much interest for him tbh, especially for a top 10/top 15 pick. Worst case scenario prerty much is your top 10/15 pick produces like Laf has. Who would do that? Makes absolutely zero sense.

 

[GAGLine]

Don't see much interest for him tbh, especially for a top 10/top 15 pick. Worst case scenario prerty much is your top 10/15 pick produces like Laf has. Who would do that? Makes absolutely zero sense.

That isn't even close to the worst case scenario.

 

[Synergy27]

The Rangers need to trade Panarin and staple Laf to the top 6 and the PP. That’s not going to happen though, which is incredibly frustrating as a Ranger fan, so I can maybe be talked into trading him for a RW with a similar profile (age, salary, potential).

The problem is, I don’t think that player exists. The only name that moves the needle is Jack Quinn but I doubt Buffalo would make that move. Podkolzin definitely ain’t it.

 

[ZDH]

That isn't even close to the worst case scenario.

Look at the rest of that first round. Essentially every pick is = or > Laf's production. Can't really count d for obvious reasons. Go the year before - same thing (Turcotte and Podkolzin aside, but there's plenty of picks with better production than Laf that offset that.)

It's pretty much worse case. Nobody is moving the chance to draft an actual star for a player who is tracking like Laf is.

 

[The Real JT]

That isn't even close to the worst case scenario.

You beat me to it.

The ceiling for Laf and his likely trajectory is that of a middle 6 forward. That’s not a bust but it’s certainly a disappointment. His hockey IQ is low and his work ethic is below average. Those last comments are insights from someone of stature within the organization (not me). I’ll leave it at that. You can take my comments with a grain of salt if you like (and you probably do).

If the NYR organization wants to maximize value they should cut bait now IMO. They’d lose face to some extent and I’m not sure Drury wants to do that. He’s on a short leash now anyway.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Laffy and Dubois are getting the multi year "trade Kerfoot" treatment.

At this point, Laffy is worth a mid 2nd. It may not make the Ranger fans happy but don't blame the other team fans, blame Laffy.

Lias Andersson got a mid 2nd.

Stop.

Dach is nearly a year older.

Dach played almost 3 and a half minutes more per game (and significantly more time on the PP)

Dach only scored 22 even strength points to Lafreniere's 35

Dach's shooting % this season was nearly double that of his previous three seasons (which had been pretty consistent, making this year look like a aberration)

Laf's shooting % this season was a third lower than the previous two seasons (again, making it seem like this year was the aberration)

Dach plays with Montreal's best players. Lafreniere plays with the Rangers' 3rd line.

Ultimately it doesn't matter. Laf is not a bust. If he never improves from where he is right now (which is a stupid thing to assume of a 21 year old player), he's still an NHL player. No team is going to offer more than a low-ball or, at best, a lateral trade for him, and the Rangers have no need to accept even fair value, as they would already have a player of that caliber (Laf) who has a chance to become even more.

Running out the current group (with the vets taking up all the minutes and starving the kids of the ice time they need to develop) doesn't work. I'd rather retain on Panarin, bring back a bunch of assets by moving him, and thereby free up the minutes Laf needs on the PP and in the top six. If Laf still doesn't develop, oh well. It isn't like the current group was going to win the Cup anyway, and at least then you'd have the assets in the fold from trading Panarin.

Excellent post.

 

[HabsAddict]

Only on HF will anyone compare Laff to Dach.

NHL2000 in some is strong...

 

[Funk21]

TML
Nylander with 8x8.5 extension

NYR
LaFreniere
2024 1st that drops to a second if he scores more than 55 points in is first year with TML