Player Discussion Alex Newhook

[Natey]

ok now. thats enough

Not my statement - It's from Mitchell Brown, who is a known analytics guy.

 

[LaP]

That’s insane to the point where I almost don’t believe it.

There's nothing insane or surprising about it.

1. Small sample size.
2. Take into account only 1 possibility (the one hapenning) instead of all possibility.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter who took what at 31st what matters is which other players where available to be taken and which ones of them were a realistic option at that rank.

It's like saying i got to take a number in a hat having 20 numbers is it, numbered from 1 to 20. What is the chance i take the number 4? Answer is 5%. 1 possibility out of 20. But you could take a number 100 times (returning the number taken in the hat) without taking 4 a single time and if you concluded your chances would be 0% then you would be wrong. And BTW taking a number 100 times without taking 4 a single time is perfectly possible. What matters is which numbers were avalaible to be taken and how many of them where in the hat. What you take in a small sample size (under 1000 i'd say) do not matter at all. I've played a game of Blood Bowl once where a guy attemped 30 going for it without missing a single one and the chances to miss a going for it is 16% (true story BTW). I wanted to slap him in the face at the end of the game.

Now obviously with the draft it's hard to come with a real % because there's a part of subjectivity about it. If you talk 31st which players are in the hat? i.e. which players are actually on your list up for consideration at that rank? Are the remaining good players even on your list? How many players on your list? Nobody really knows for sure. It's not like a dice.

 

[MadMslm]

Doesn't change my statement. Of course he was (supposed to be anyway, we will see if that translates). But their overall style of hockey is vastly different.

Newhook doesn’t hustle like Lekhonen and has a widely different understanding of the game. Lekhonen is a great positional player and he’s amazing at cutting passing lane. He’ll outwork most players on the ice, win a tremendous amount of battles and hustles like a dog which is tiring for any player facing that much pressure.

Newhook has more talent, better hands and a faster skater. Byron was also faster than him.

I’d take Benson over Newhook, he’s more dynamic offensively, he has great hustle and can win battles. Add his playmaking ability and understanding of the game and I think it’s an easy choice.

I’m not convinced Newhook succeeds much when there’s no space on the ice. He’s a player that will get most of his points on the rush or on set plays.

 

[Wats]

I rather give same package for Hart. Maybe I'm just not hockey savvy. Hope Newhook proves me wrong but this is probably my least favourite Hughes trade.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Not my statement - It's from Mitchell Brown, who is a known analytics guy.

well pass my message on to him. No one needs to hear that type of nonsense.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

There's nothing insane or surprising about it.

1. Small sample size.
2. Take into account only 1 possibility instead of all.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter who took what at 31st what matters is which other players where available to be taken and which ones of them were a realistic option at that rank.

It's like saying i got to take a number in a hat having 20 numbers is it, numbered from 1 to 20. What is the chance i take the number 4? Answer is 5%. 1 possibility out of 20. But you could take a number 100 times (returning the number taken in the hat) without taking 4 a single time and if you concluded your chances would be 0% then you would be wrong. And BTW taking a number 100 times without taking 4 a single time is perfectly possible. What matters is which numbers were avalaible to be taken and how many of them where in the hat. What you take in a small sample size (under 1000 i'd say) do not matter at all. I've played a game of Blood Bowl once where a guy attemped 30 going for it without missing a single one and the chances to miss a going for it is 16%. I wanted to slap him in the face at the end of the game.

Now obviously with the draft it's hard to come with a real % because there's a part of subjectivity about it. If you talk 31st which players are in the hat? i.e. which players are actually on your list up for consideration at that rank? Are the remaining good players even on your list? How many players on your list? Nobody really knows. It's not like a dice.

The bottom line is that you get one selection with each pick. And that selection with the 31st pick over the last 30 years has yielded George Laraque and a bunch of no names.

 

[Mudz]

There's nothing insane or surprising about it.

1. Small sample size.
2. Take into account only 1 possibility (the one hapenning) instead of all possibility.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter who took what at 31st what matters is which other players where available to be taken and which ones of them were a realistic option at that rank.

It's like saying i got to take a number in a hat having 20 numbers is it, numbered from 1 to 20. What is the chance i take the number 4? Answer is 5%. 1 possibility out of 20. But you could take a number 100 times (returning the number taken in the hat) without taking 4 a single time and if you concluded your chances would be 0% then you would be wrong. And BTW taking a number 100 times without taking 4 a single time is perfectly possible. What matters is which numbers were avalaible to be taken and how many of them where in the hat. What you take in a small sample size (under 1000 i'd say) do not matter at all. I've played a game of Blood Bowl once where a guy attemped 30 going for it without missing a single one and the chances to miss a going for it is 16% (true story BTW). I wanted to slap him in the face at the end of the game.

Now obviously with the draft it's hard to come with a real % because there's a part of subjectivity about it. If you talk 31st which players are in the hat? i.e. which players are actually on your list up for consideration at that rank? Are the remaining good players even on your list? How many players on your list? Nobody really knows. It's not like a dice.

You got a basic understanding of probabilities but you don't understand how to apply it, if that makes sense.

Like your number in a hat is a perfect example of why you can't use the list of good players in the 30-60s you've put together, funny enough

 

[LaP]

You got a basic understanding of probabilities but you don't understand how to apply it, if that makes sense.

Like your number in a hat is a perfect example of why you can't use the list of good players in the 30-60s you've put together, funny enough

If you take into account only the players drafted 31st it's potentially even worse. The sample size is so small what would be the margin of error, confidence interval and the level of confidence?

 

[SpeedyPotato]

His biggest con was that ultra stacked USNDTP.

Even their goalie was considered a top 10 prospect by many.

He never played for the USNDTP, his biggest knock was actually coming out of the BCHL and the questions everyone has about player coming from that lesser league.

 

[Natey]

well pass my message on to him. No one needs to hear that type of nonsense.

It's not nonsense based on the data though lol

I bet every prospect you've ever been excited for has turned out great because you're such a unmatched scout. So damn good that they've banned you from joining teams since it would be an unfair advantage!

 

[Frank Drebin]

It's not nonsense based on the data though lol

I bet every prospect you've ever been excited for has turned out great because you're such a unmatched scout. So damn good that they've banned you from joining teams since it would be an unfair advantage!

I'm not a scout. I just scour the internet for nonsense.

 

[Skip Bayless]

He never played for the USNDTP, his biggest knock was actually coming out of the BCHL and the questions everyone has about player coming from that lesser league.

I meant the reason he was drafted in the middle round was because that abnormal USNDTP edition made prospects of his calibre fall lower than he would have in a normal season.

He was a victim of both the talent and hype of that team.

 

[SpeedyPotato]

I meant his biggest knock was how that abnormal USNDTP team made prospects of his calibre fall lower than he would have in a normal season.

He was a victim of both the talent and hype of that team.

Ahhh gotcha!! Yeah that was a crazy USNDTP year indeed

 

[Natey]

I'm not a scout. I just scour the internet for nonsense.

Ah and when you don't find any, you make posts yourself.

 

[Habricot]

No im talking about today's value. Montreal could have just offer sheet him they would have paid way less.

This trade made no sense.

From what I understand they would have too many contracts anyways. I think this trade will payoff.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

There's been what, one offer sheet every 5 years on average, if that? It's not exactly a super obvious option that every GM would be dumb not to consider, even less so for a guy like Newhook.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

There was room for Newhook last year. People saying otherwise did not watch them. There was definitely without any doubt a spot open for him after Kadri and Burakovsky left and Landeskog got injured. It was also clearly the plan by Sakic for Newhook to take that spot.

Avs top 6 last year (offensively speaking) was :

MacKinnon
Rantannen
Compher (historically a 3rd line player who is 28)
Lehkonen
Nishuskin (missed half the year)
Evan Rodrigues (historically a 3rd line player who is 29)

With Landeskog injured last year and Nishuskin who missed almost half the season Avs top 6 was uber weak last year. I mean i'm sorry but if you can't beat Evan Rodrigues then the problem is not that the spot is not open it's just that you did not take it.

Now why did Newhook not make his way into what was a clearly open spot in the top 6? Is it age? Is it experience? Is it talent? Time will tell. Either Sakic is wrong or KH is wrong there. If Sakic believed Newhook still had the potentiel to be a 50+ points player he would not have traded him for a 31st and 37 overall picks for sure imo. Let's hope that mister Sakic is the one in the wrong here. But i like Sakic a lot as a GM and i'm not sure i'm willing to say he's clearly in the wrong here. I hope he is and this trade is not Dvorak 2.0 at least Newhook is still young.

Agree but time will tell. Not often Sakic is wrong. The good point is MSL who can turn water into cherry wine, lol. A bit of exageration there. If you tell me Dvorak 2.0, I'll vomit, lol. Dvorak is a slow skater and Newhook is a fast skater so the Dvorak 2.0 doesn't exactly apply.

 

[LaP]

Agree but time will tell. Not often Sakic is wrong. The good point is MSL who can turn water into cherry wine, lol. A bit of exageration there. If you tell me Dvorak 2.0, I'll vomit, lol. Dvorak is a slow skater and Newhook is a fast skater so the Dvorak 2.0 doesn't exactly apply.

You're right that Newhook definitely got more potential then Dvorak had back when he was young.

 

[MtlSars]

When we traded Petry away, I was told the return was underwhelming and Mike Matheson was a damn scrub with Florida and he got 1 good year in Pittsburgh but all he could do was skate etc....

This is not a exaggeration, the consensus on this board was meh....

When we acquired Dach, most of the feedback was we gave a solid roster guy and draft picks for a kid with a bum wrist who couldn't win faceoffs to save his life and who has peaked producing 30 points with much better talent than what we have in this lineup....yada yada.

Considering what we saw last year on the ice.....I'd say we owe management some benefit of the doubt....

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

When we traded Petry away, I was told the return was underwhelming and Mike Matheson was a damn scrub with Florida and he got 1 good year in Pittsburgh but all he could do was skate etc....

This is not a exaggeration, the consensus on this board was meh....

When we acquired Dach, most of the feedback was we gave a solid roster guy and draft picks for a kid with a bum wrist who couldn't win faceoffs to save his life and who has peaked producing 30 points with much better talent than what we have in this lineup....yada yada.

Considering what we saw last year on the ice.....I'd say we owe management some benefit of the doubt....

delete

 

[CHwest]

Newhook like Dach has room for growth. Probably a good trade.

 

[PeteWorrell]

Newhook like Dach has room for growth. Probably a good trade.

It's a good gamble. I will take the young NHL player with room to grow over two potential kids who might never play in the NHL and an AHL player.

 

[HabsQC]

Un tiens vaut mieux que deux tu l'auras

 

[Miller Time]

Hope he handles pressure & scrutiny well...

Through no fault of his own, he's going to be attached to the output of this draft class for years to come.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Very pleased with the trade, so gonna focus on that for today. He’s miles better than anyone available at 31 and should step into the top six immediately.