Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[DaveMatthew]

You're missing a 13th forward, which would put that team over the cap.

I'm also very skeptical that Hamonic would sign for anywhere close to 1.3M.

I think he'll probably cost 2-3M on a short-term deal at least.

But the biggest problem with that is penciling in Sogaard as the backup. It's just not a smart idea to do that with Forsberg coming off multiple MCL tears. It's asking for a bottom 10 finish.



We're going to be in cap trouble after next season too, unless the cap jumps significantly.

Our 5M in dead cap comes off the books after next season, but Sanderson is going to need a long-term extension, which will probably cost 8M at least given how he's developing.

Also unlikely Pinto comes in at $2.2M, even on a short bridge. Dillon Dube got a 3 year deal at $2.3M per coming off an 11 goal/22 point season (albeit in 51 games). Tyson Jost got 2 years at $2M per after a 7 goal, 17 points season (in 54 games).

Pinto probably gets a similar deal to the Robert Thomas bridge (which was 2 years at $2.8M per).

I'd bet on something between $2.75-3M on a 2 year term.

 

[bicboi64]

Not going to bother reading into Cat's body language or anything, none of us know the guy. It's going to come down t money and if whatever he signs works out for his family.

I think anything over$7.5 million is going to force us to rely on ELC and waiver wire pick ups when we're trying to compete. Honestly don't think he stays, especially if he wants $9 million

 

[SlapJack]

You're missing a 13th forward, which would put that team over the cap.

I'm also very skeptical that Hamonic would sign for anywhere close to 1.3M.

I think he'll probably cost 2-3M on a short-term deal at least.

But the biggest problem with that is penciling in Sogaard as the backup. It's just not a smart idea to do that with Forsberg coming off multiple MCL tears. It's asking for a bottom 10 finish.



We're going to be in cap trouble after next season too, unless the cap jumps significantly.

Our 5M in dead cap comes off the books after next season, but Sanderson is going to need a long-term extension, which will probably cost 8M at least given how he's developing.

Until a team is over the cap and you're having trouble moving a guy to get under, you're not in cap trouble. Cap is projected to go up another $4M for 24/25 so that's 9M in space. Then the following year it goes up another 5M. This is also going to drive salaries up where $8M might get you Micheal freaking Bunting or another guy not as good as DeBrincat.

Something else that keeps getting missed in the whole DeBrincat discussion is that Claude Giroux ain't going to be around forever. So that's 2 top 6 guys gone in the not too distant future with zero prospects that are remotely near those talents. You're not getting good value back for DeBrincat if he's getting traded this year either. Mid 1st and a B prospect. He's going to have a $9M cap hit next year if he's not signed long term which not a lot of teams can take on, and even less would want to give up significant assets for an impending UFA.

DeBrincat is more valuable as a signed asset now and in the future.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Until a team is over the cap and you're having trouble moving a guy to get under, you're not in cap trouble. Cap is projected to go up another $4M for 24/25 so that's 9M in space. Then the following year it goes up another 5M. This is also going to drive salaries up where $8M might get you Micheal freaking Bunting or another guy not as good as DeBrincat.

Something else that keeps getting missed in the whole DeBrincat discussion is that Claude Giroux ain't going to be around forever. So that's 2 top 6 guys gone in the not too distant future with zero prospects that are remotely near those talents. You're not getting good value back for DeBrincat if he's getting traded this year either. Mid 1st and a B prospect. He's going to have a $9M cap hit next year if he's not signed long term which not a lot of teams can take on, and even less would want to give up significant assets for an impending UFA.

DeBrincat is more valuable as a signed asset now and in the future.

Even if the cap goes up 4M in 2024/25, Sanderson is going to eat up most of that and the 5M in dead cap coming off the books.

It just isn't the case that we just need to get past this year of cap hell. We're going to be struggling to keep all our guys for years beyond this one. Just the reality we have to deal with.

Unfortunately it appears Sens management agrees with your belief that there's no need to worry about spending until you find yourself over the cap, hence the 5M in dead cap we're struggling with right now.

 

[Neil Patrick Harris]

The vibes were off from day 1.

Seriously. Y'all are acting like a psycho girlfriend who's been dumped too many times and is now trying to be the dumper instead of the dumpee at the tiniest hint of uncertainty.

I swear, we do this every single time we have a pending free agent. We went through the same shit when Tkachuk and Norris were RFAs.

Everyone wishes players would give honest answers, until they give honest answers.

 

[swiftwin]

Even if the cap goes up 4M in 2024/25, Sanderson is going to eat up most of that and the 5M in dead cap coming off the books.

It just isn't the case that we just need to get past this year of cap hell. We're going to be struggling to keep all our guys for years beyond this one. Just the reality we have to deal with.

Unfortunately it appears Sens management agrees with your belief that there's no need to worry about spending until you find yourself over the cap, hence the 5M in dead cap we're struggling with right now.

Sanderson is the last big piece of the core we need to sign. Through a combination of dead cap coming off and the cap going up, we'll find a way to squeeze him in.

The season after that, Giroux's contract will be expired (and hopefully re-signed at a much lower cost), and the cap will go up again, which should let us sign Pinto and Chychrun. We'll be insanely flush with cap space at a time when our core players will be at their absolute peak and locked down on good contracts. IMO, 2025-26 is when our contention window truly opens up.

 

[Samsquanch]

Just watched his interview (listened to it the first time) and I can't believe how badly this is getting blown out of proportion. This is actually the exact kind of shit that drives players away from a Canadian market.

His interview was totally sincere. And if anything to me his body language and demeanor was that of a guy that was feeling slightly sheepish about an underwhelming season (by his standards). He wasnt proud of it.

He's such a low key guy and you can tell how much this move impacted his personal life (him being a creature of habit). So I seriously think we are in a good position to sign him at a reasonable price. Better than most people realize.

 

[swiftwin]

Everyone wishes players would give honest answers, until they give honest answers.

The craziest thing is that people are misinterpreting what he's saying.

People are assuming he says he wants to talk to his family because he doesn't like it here. When in reality, he probably wants to talk to his family because they DO like it here. The fact is, with our cap space, we probably can't offer much more than $8m. He could probably squeeze out an extra 500k-1m if he went elsewhere. But moving cities is difficult for him and his wife, especially with a new baby, therefore, it would make sense for him to take a small discount to stay here.

He literally talks about how difficult it is to move cities. Yet, people's reaction to that is he wants to leave the city?!?!?! People are insane.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Sanderson is the last big piece of the core we need to sign. Through a combination of dead cap coming off and the cap going up, we'll find a way to squeeze him in.

The season after that, Giroux's contract will be expired (and hopefully re-signed at a much lower cost), and the cap will go up again, which should let us sign Pinto and Chychrun. We'll be insanely flush with cap space at a time when our core players will be at their absolute peak and locked down on good contracts. IMO, 2025-26 is when our contention window truly opens up.

Our contention window will only open in 25/26, when Chabot is 29, Chychrun is 28 and Norris and Tkachuk are 26? When Giroux is 38?

As a point of reference, our last "window" closed when Karlsson was 27, Duchene was 26, Stone was 25 and Pageau was 24. One can argue that all of those players declined once they left here and moved into their late 20's.

St.Louis was considered "old" when they won their cup. Pietrangelo was 28. O'Reilly was 27. Tarasenko was 26. Parayko was 25. They had had 5 playoff runs before that year, with a WCF appearance.

I certainly hope our window opens sooner than that. If it's not going to, we should trade Chabot for futures tomorrow.

 

[SlapJack]

Even if the cap goes up 4M in 2024/25, Sanderson is going to eat up most of that and the 5M in dead cap coming off the books.

It just isn't the case that we just need to get past this year of cap hell. We're going to be struggling to keep all our guys for years beyond this one. Just the reality we have to deal with.

Unfortunately it appears Sens management agrees with your belief that there's no need to worry about spending until you find yourself over the cap, hence the 5M in dead cap we're struggling with right now.

Sens management, like most other teams, are probably not concerned about the cap because there's ways to get out of problems. Some are unsavoury, some require creativity, and sometimes you get lucky that highly paid guy misses half the season but you're still doing well in the standings and can actually add someone for the playoffs.

There's always a way. Minnesota has $15M in dead cap for this year and the next 2 and they're doing ok. Could it be a better situation? Of course. But they're dealing with it and in the playoffs right now.

When something needs to get done, they will figure it out. They got rid of Murray and Zaitsev, they'll make different moves to accommodate for DeBrincat if he signs. This happens every year with many teams and they always work it out

 

[Masked]

Also unlikely Pinto comes in at $2.2M, even on a short bridge. Dillon Dube got a 3 year deal at $2.3M per coming off an 11 goal/22 point season (albeit in 51 games). Tyson Jost got 2 years at $2M per after a 7 goal, 17 points season (in 54 games).

Pinto probably gets a similar deal to the Robert Thomas bridge (which was 2 years at $2.8M per).

I'd bet on something between $2.75-3M on a 2 year term.

I'd bet on a one year deal with a very slight raise over what he made this year. He has no bargaining power and the Sens will be in a better position to take care of him next off-season.

Assen na yo!

 

[DaveMatthew]

I'd bet on a one year deal with a very slight raise over what he made this year. He has no bargaining power and the Sens will be in a better position to take care of him next off-season.

Assen na yo!

He has the same amount of bargaining power as every RFA coming off their last ELC year where they performed well. It's not nothing. He made $925k this year. Even on a 1-year deal, he's getting double that at a minimum.

A 1-year deal poses a risk for Ottawa too. If he scores 30 next year, all of a sudden he's asking for $5M on his next deal. At the same time that Sanderson is asking for $8M. The year after you (maybe) gave DeBrincat $8M. When Chychrun is 1 year away from UFA and probably asking for 8M. All before our "window" opens!!

We'd be better off getting at least 1 of these guys (Pinto or Sanderson) locked into a reasonable 2-3 year bridge instead of kicking the can 1 year down the road. And I'd rather it be Pinto than Sanderson.

 

[Blotto71]

I'd bet on a one year deal with a very slight raise over what he made this year. He has no bargaining power and the Sens will be in a better position to take care of him next off-season.

Assen na yo!

His team might consider that risky, but I certainly like the idea.

Alex signed his last deal the off season before covid threw everything into flux. Prior to 2020 the cap had been growing at an average of 4% per year (for 7 years). His agent made a good deal that put him in a position to control his future. Had the cap continued to grow he would be closer to a $9m salary, but as it didn't, he's not going to see that anywhere. He could very well get locked up for 6 - 8 years at for Tkachuk money - $8.2ish per year.

 

[Masked]

He has the same amount of bargaining power as every RFA coming off their last ELC year where they performed well. It's not nothing. He made $925k this year. Even on a 1-year deal, he's getting double that at a minimum.

A 1-year deal poses a risk for Ottawa too. If he scores 30 next year, all of a sudden he's asking for $5M on his next deal. At the same time that Sanderson is asking for $8M. The year after you (maybe) gave DeBrincat $8M. When Chychrun is 1 year away from UFA and probably asking for 8M. All before our "window" opens!!

We'd be better off getting at least 1 of these guys (Pinto or Sanderson) locked into a reasonable 2-3 year bridge instead of kicking the can 1 year down the road. And I'd rather it be Pinto than Sanderson.

First off, as a 10.2(c) RFA he does not have the same amount of bargaining power as every RFA coming off their ELC.

Second, if he scores 30 next year then he's too good to be a third line center and either he or someone in the top two lines will need to be moved. He'll also have lots of trade value if the Sens did move him.

Third, the Sens have an estimated $27M in cap space next summer with Sanderson being the only other core player needing a deal.

Next season is the only real cap crunch offseason for the team. After that all the great long term deals Dorion signed will pay off.

Assen na yo!

 

[Adele Dazeem]

There is so much wrong with the perception of DBC it is crazy.

Since he entered the league in 2017/18 he ranks, among ALL FORWARDS:

31st in total points
14th in goals

So no, we won't just find another player like him who produces the same for $4M.

I never said the 4M guy will produce like him.
He ranks 64th this season in points and 72nd in goals.
The stats your using make him look better than what he showed this season; you know exactly why that is.

For those who haven’t, I recommend watching the full media availability with DeBrincat (as well as the other players). He’s very candid about the challenges of moving a young family with a baby to a different city and country, but also said his wife has made a ton of new friends in Ottawa. Mentions several times about how welcoming everyone has been, and how he got more comfortable with the team (both the system and his teammates) as the season progressed. Also said “I think we (the Sens) have a bright future.” I think when DeBrincat says he’s open to signing long term but wants some time to discuss it with his family first, he means exactly what he says and there’s no ulterior motive or anything like that.

That's completely fair.

 

[DaveMatthew]

First off, as a 10.2(c) RFA he does not have the same amount of bargaining power as every RFA coming off their ELC.

Second, if he scores 30 next year then he's too good to be a third line center and either he or someone in the top two lines will need to be moved. He'll also have lots of trade value if the Sens did move him.

Third, the Sens have an estimated $27M in cap space next summer with Sanderson being the only other core player needing a deal.

Next season is the only real cap crunch offseason for the team. After that all the great long term deals Dorion signed will pay off.

Assen na yo!

So the cap casualties start coming before the window of contention even opens. Sweet! I guess that's what happens when your rebuild takes 6+ years.

I'll eat my hat if Pinto only gets a small raise from $925K. I'll guess 3x2.75.

 

[swiftwin]

Our contention window will only open in 25/26, when Chabot is 29, Chychrun is 28 and Norris and Tkachuk are 26? When Giroux is 38?

As a point of reference, our last "window" closed when Karlsson was 27, Duchene was 26, Stone was 25 and Pageau was 24. One can argue that all of those players declined once they left here and moved into their late 20's.

St.Louis was considered "old" when they won their cup. Pietrangelo was 28. O'Reilly was 27. Tarasenko was 26. Parayko was 25. They had had 5 playoff runs before that year, with a WCF appearance.

I certainly hope our window opens sooner than that. If it's not going to, we should trade Chabot for futures tomorrow.

Jesus christ dude. You know very well that their age wasn't the reason our last window closed. Just look at the Bruins. Most of their players are 30+.

The 2026 playoffs are 3 years from now. Next year is the earliest we can make the playoffs. Then there's a year after that, then it's the 2026 playoffs. In 2026, Stu will be 24, Sanderson 23, Norris and Tkachuk 26. They will all be entering their prime. They'll all be signed to cheap deals (relative to the cap in 2026), and we'll be swimming in cap space to fill up with solid depth veterans.

That's a completely realistic timeline to when we could be a true cup contender. Unless you think we should be a cup contender sooner? If so, then that's an even bigger reason to KEEP DeBrincat! Futures do not help us right now.

So the cap casualties start coming before the window of contention even opens. Sweet! I guess that's what happens when your rebuild takes 6+ years.

Literally the opposite. We're biting the bullet for the next 2 seasons so that we have maximum cap flexibility in 2026-2029 when all our long term contracts are reaching a peak performance/cap value.

 

[Neil Patrick Harris]

For those who haven’t, I recommend watching the full media availability with DeBrincat (as well as the other players). He’s very candid about the challenges of moving a young family with a baby to a different city and country, but also said his wife has made a ton of new friends in Ottawa. Mentions several times about how welcoming everyone has been, and how he got more comfortable with the team (both the system and his teammates) as the season progressed. Also said “I think we (the Sens) have a bright future.” I think when DeBrincat says he’s open to signing long term but wants some time to discuss it with his family first, he means exactly what he says and there’s no ulterior motive or anything like that.

That's all very well and good, but have you considered that this won't generate as many clicks and attention as "DeBrincat super duper wants out"

 

[swiftwin]

That's all very well and good, but have you considered that this won't generate as many clicks and attention as "DeBrincat super duper wants out"

It's like they know how sensitive this fanbase is, and yet, people keep falling for it.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Jesus christ dude. You know very well that their age wasn't the reason our last window closed. Just look at the Bruins. Most of their players are 30+.

The 2026 playoffs are 3 years from now. Next year is the earliest we can make the playoffs. Then there's a year after that, then it's the 2026 playoffs. In 2026, Stu will be 24, Sanderson 23, Norris and Tkachuk 26. They will all be entering their prime. They'll all be signed to cheap deals (relative to the cap in 2026), and we'll be swimming in cap space to fill up with solid depth veterans.

That's a completely realistic timeline to when we could be a true cup contender. Unless you think we should be a cup contender sooner? If so, then that's an even bigger reason to KEEP DeBrincat! Futures do not help us right now.

The Bruins are a huge exception. Patrice Bergeron is making less than Mathieu Joseph this year. David Krejci is making less than Auston Watson.
And this is seen as their "last dance" season. Not the middle of their window.

The last time the Bruins won the cup, Bergeron was 25, Krejci was 24, Lucic was 22, Marchand was 22 and Seguin was 18. They had made the playoffs for a couple seasons before that cup win. If we were on the Bruins timeline, we would have won the cup this season.

I absolutely think we should be a cup contender sooner. That's why DJ Smith should have been fired yesterday and a new GM should be brought in prior to the draft to put the finishing touches on this roster.

After 2026, Tkachuk and Chabot will have 2 years left on their deals. So we get two real kicks at the can after an 8-year rebuild? Maybe 1 if there's any sense of them leaving as UFA's (aka the Karlsson/Stone/Duchene situation?). After all, the cap will be so much higher they'll surely want big raises right?

Luckily, I do expect the attitude to change as soon as new owners take over, and PD/DJ will be quickly shown the door.

 

[swiftwin]

The Bruins are a huge exception. Patrice Bergeron is making less than Mathieu Joseph this year. David Krejci is making less than Auston Watson.
And this is largely seen as their "last dance" season. Not the middle of their "window".

The last time the Bruins won the cup, Bergeron was 25, Krejci was 24, Lucic was 22, Marchand was 22 and Seguin was 18.

I absolutely think we should be a cup contender sooner. That's why DJ Smith should have been fired yesterday and a new GM should be brought in prior to the draft to put the finishing touches on this roster.

Cool, and in 2026, Giroux is also likely going to be making Bergeron/Krejci/Spezza "end of their career" type money.

You're insane if you think we need to be a cup contender in the next 2 years when our two best, highest potential players were 20 years old at the start of this season.

Besides, if you think we need to be a cup contender sooner, then we need to keep DeBrincat! No point in trading him for futures!

Your arguments make literally no sense. You're angrily ranting because you don't want to admit Dorion has done an amazing job. People are finally turning around on him. I was right about him all along, and you were wrong. Deal with it.

 

[Masked]

So the cap casualties start coming before the window of contention even opens. Sweet! I guess that's what happens when your rebuild takes 6+ years.

How many teams have a third liner scoring 30 and then keeping them in that role?

Assen na yo!

 

[SensHulk]

Ppl are misinterpreting DBC because of Garrioch’s headline. That’s it, that’s all.

But if he really doesn’t want to be here, then that’s a shame but I’m hopeful we can get some solid pieces back (might need a 3 team trade to work it all out)

 

[DaveMatthew]

You're insane if you think we need to be a cup contender in the next 2 years when our two best, highest potential players were 20 years old at the start of this season.

I mean, that's how a lot of teams in the cap era have won the cup. When their best players were in their early 20's and hadn't gotten their massive paydays yet. See: Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Toews, Doughty, Makar, etc.

Having your top-end players on ELCs gives you a massive advantage. As soon as players get paid, it becomes harder. Wasting those years puts you behind. Look at Toronto.

DJ Smith and Pierre Dorion have already missed the playoffs for more consecutive years than any other GM/coach combo in the cap era. And we're giving them another 3 years before we should expect to win?

A couple of years ago, the new GM of the Houston Rockets suggested he needed "9 years before being judged". He was unanimously mocked on ESPN for weeks. But you think that's cool, and a reasonable timeline.

 

[ottawah]

What makes him deserve more than Stutzle and Brady?

2 things can drive his price above those two. You are buying UFA years not RFA years and they are more expensive. Secondly, as the cap goes up every year (generally) you have to think of signings to where they were at. If a player signs for 10% of the cap, and two years later another player signs for more, but its 9.7% of the cap, you can argue he took "less" even though its actually more dollars. With Debrincat signing going into some + years of the cap, he's just going to get more. Its been a bit odd with the flat cap, but sometimes you have to look beyond the dollar value.

There's absolutely no reason he wouldn't sign here long term if we made him a fair offer.

We do not know that. There are lots of reasons for players wanting to avoid Canadian winters, taxes and notoriety. Not saying he falls into that boat, but some players do. Turris was happy to sign an extension in Nashville that he refused here. And no one thought he was unhappy here.