Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[L'Aveuglette]

The vibes were off from day 1.

Projection from you and most people because he took longer than expected to adjust to a new team.

 

[BondraTime]

If he wants 8.5, bye bye. But I don't think that's the starting point, there is absolute potential to get him signed for less. Will it happen? No idea. It's definitely not zero chance

To stay in Ottawa, I think 8.5 for a UFA to be DBC may not even be the starting point.

It’s going to cost a lot more to keep him here than a majority/all of the places that would be looking at him as a UFA, and he’s definitely not worth anywhere close to that type of commitment from this iteration of the Sens.

I’d imagine we start to hear that we’re shopping him around June 10th and he’s dealt day 1 at the draft.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Let's be clear - ADB is not signing for a dime less than 8 x 8, and he likely believes he can get more after a good season. It would probably cost us 8.5/9 x 8 to get him to even consider an extension. If that number doesn't make sense for Dorion, might as well rip off the bandage now...

Problem is, he'd only return good value if he's traded to a team where he'd be willing to sign an extension. So you need to find a team that has a) a need for an $8M LWer and b) a market where he'd be willing to stay.

There'll be limited options.

I could see Philly if we take money back (they'd happily dump Hayes on us). Maybe St.Louis or Carolina.

 

[SquidNasty]

For those who haven’t, I recommend watching the full media availability with DeBrincat (as well as the other players). He’s very candid about the challenges of moving a young family with a baby to a different city and country, but also said his wife has made a ton of new friends in Ottawa. Mentions several times about how welcoming everyone has been, and how he got more comfortable with the team (both the system and his teammates) as the season progressed. Also said “I think we (the Sens) have a bright future.” I think when DeBrincat says he’s open to signing long term but wants some time to discuss it with his family first, he means exactly what he says and there’s no ulterior motive or anything like that.

can you drop a link? Can't find it.
edit: Alex DeBrincat - Garbage Bag Day - April 14, 2023

 

[swiftwin]

Because one will cost another 8.5 x 8, minimum, likely higher from the Sens, and there are serious holes in other areas of the team.

There is no way that DBC and his salary commands fit with this Sens roster. Zero.

Serious holes in other areas? The only hole on this team if he was traded would be the 2nd line LW.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Serious holes in other areas? The only hole on this team if he was traded would be the 2nd line LW.

We don't have a 3rd line LWer or RWer.
We don't have a goalie.
We don't have a 3rd pairing RD.

Assuming you can fill one of the 3rd line spots with a DBC deal (i.e. you get a Jake Neighbours + 1st like return), that leaves the holes, in order of priority:

G
2nd LW
3rd RW
3rd RD

This is assuming some combination of Joseph, Kastelic, Kelly, Gauthier, Crookshank and Sokolov is a good enough 4th line, and Brannstrom is brought back.

Greig should start in the AHL again at C.

Tkachuk - Stützle - Giroux
XXX - Norris - Batherson
XXX - Pinto - XXX
Kelly - Kastelic - Joseph
Gauthier

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Chychrun
Brannstrom - XXX

XXX
Forsberg

 

[swiftwin]

We don't have a 3rd line LWer or RWer.
We don't have a goalie.
We don't have a 3rd pairing RD.

Assuming you can fill one of the 3rd line spots with a DBC deal (i.e. you get a Jake Neighbours + 1st like return), that leaves the holes, in order of priority:

G
2nd LW
3rd RW
3rd RD

We already have a G in Forsberg, which brings us to #2 on your list, which is 2nd LW, which we already have in DeBrincat! A 3rd line RW is waaay easier to find than a 40-goal top 6 LW. Then 3rd RD is easily Hamonic. There's even an outside chance we may get Formenton back.

Moving DeBrincat would be a terrible move. We were already top heavy, relying on Tkachuk-Stu-G too much, moving DeBrincat makes things infinitely worse. Not only that, but you're suggesting moving him for a 1st round pick?!?! Are you insane? We're trying to make the playoffs next year, not rebuild.

 

[bert]

I want to cycle back on this post where you commented on Dorion without leverage

Stuetzle didn't have to sign a contract last summer. Dorion has zero leverage to make that happen. But it did happen. 8 years at 8.35.

Suppose it didn't happen. Tim plays out his ELC as is pretty common. Like Tkachuk did. Timmy posts 90 points. Some guy tweets that the only players to post 90 points in their 21 year old season since the 06 lockout we're Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos and McDavid.

So, where are we right now if Tim is without contract? Certainly we're looking at a deal that is well north of 10 AAV. Possibly 11 AAV.

Marner has a 10.9 AAV deal and he had a 69 point 21 year old season. He's a winger. Timmy is a centre.

Not much of a stretch to think that Timmy could sign a 10.85 AAV deal if he hadn't signed last summer. What's the difference there? 20 million.

So without any leverage Dorion signed Stuetzle to an 8 year deal that probably saved the franchise 20 million and provided 2.5 in cap space for 8 years to be used elsewhere.

You don't win every deal you make nor do you lose every deal you make. This particular deal may well be viewed as the best contract in the league as early as next year. Without leverage

I was referring to leverage in a trade scenario. But again these two situations are not comparable. One player was on his ELC the other can walk to UFA.

I never critisized the Stutzle deal it was a good one. But there are plenty of poor contracts if you want to go down that path.

 

[BondraTime]

Would be calling Barry Trotz as soon as he got into office and see if anything could be done around Tomasino/Evangalista and DBC.

They need some goal scoring pretty badly, have the cap space for him, and would likely be a place DBC would consider staying long term.

Get either one of those guys, and the 7 million in cap space, and fill in the remaining holes on the team, would be a smart move, obviously much less than we gave up but that’s a sunk cost at this point.

 

[DaveMatthew]

We already have a G in Forsberg, which brings us to #2 on your list, which is 2nd LW, which we already have in DeBrincat! A 3rd line RW is waaay easier to find than a 40-goal top 6 LW. Then 3rd RD is easily Hamonic. There's even an outside chance we may get Formenton back.

Moving DeBrincat would be a terrible move. We were already top heavy, relying on Tkachuk-Stu-G too much, moving DeBrincat makes things infinitely worse. Not only that, but you're suggesting moving him for a 1st round pick?!?! Are you insane? We're trying to make the playoffs next year, not rebuild.

Forsberg is a platoon goalie. He can play 40-45 games, max. He needs a partner who can play the other half, and do it well.

Debrincat will decide if he's moved or not. The "I need time to discuss with my family" lukewarm answer isn't a positive development.

If he decides he wants to be moved, that opens up a significant hole. Nobody is trading a 30-goal winger for a 30-goal winger. If he's dealt, you'll get a volume package (depth player + pick + prospect). Hopefully the depth player is young and cheap, not middle-aged and expensive, so the savings can be used to address hole #1 - a goalie.

 

[swiftwin]

Debrincat will decide if he's moved or not. The "I need time to discuss with my family" lukewarm answer isn't a positive development.

That doesn't mean shit. Every high profile free agent that's close to UFA says stuff like this.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

We don't have a 3rd line LWer or RWer.
We don't have a goalie.
We don't have a 3rd pairing RD.

Assuming you can fill one of the 3rd line spots with a DBC deal (i.e. you get a Jake Neighbours + 1st like return), that leaves the holes, in order of priority:

G
2nd LW
3rd RW
3rd RD

This is assuming some combination of Joseph, Kastelic, Kelly, Gauthier, Crookshank and Sokolov is a good enough 4th line, and Brannstrom is brought back.

Greig should start in the AHL again at C.

Tkachuk - Stützle - Giroux
XXX - Norris - Batherson
XXX - Pinto - XXX
Kelly - Kastelic - Joseph
Gauthier

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Chychrun
Brannstrom - XXX

XXX
Forsberg

Man, you're seeing holes where there are none.

Kleven or Hamonic will fill in the bottom D role, and Greig will likely play winger on Pinto's wing, with Formenton probably coming back to complete that line. If DBC stays there are practically no major roles to fill aside from a bottom-6 Brass-like vet who can provide some offense. Like you say we also have guys in the AHL who can periodically come in and fill that role as well.

Obviously I'd like to bring in a #1 goalie but I don't think keeping DBC around should stop that from happening.

 

[swiftwin]

Seriously. Y'all are acting like a psycho girlfriend who's been dumped too many times and is now trying to be the dumper instead of the dumpee at the tiniest hint of uncertainty.

I swear, we do this every single time we have a pending free agent. We went through the same shit when Tkachuk and Norris were RFAs.

 

[Hale The Villain]

People need to understand if we re-sign DeBrincat to an 8M deal, we have no money left over.

Would barely have enough to re-sign Pinto and Brannstrom on cheap short-term deals and fill out the rest of the roster with cheap depth paid around league minimum.

Would leave zero room to re-sign Hamonic and no room to add a competent goalie, which is kind of a necessity given Forsberg is hardly a proven #1 and is coming off multiple MCL tears.

Might be in the best interest of both parties to move him somewhere else.

 

[DaveMatthew]

That doesn't mean shit. Every high profile free agent that's close to UFA says stuff like this.

Not really. 95% of the time an upcoming UFA has ties to the city they're playing in and gives the generic "Love it here, so does my family, would love to stay, agent is handling it, it'll all work out" answer.

Usually you don't have an upcoming UFA who was acquired less than a year ago being as non-comittal as Debrincat is. The guy never wanted to leave Chicago and visibly struggled all season. It hasn't been a perfect fit, and he's not pretending like it has been.

Even Duchene was way more "enthusiastic" about potentially staying here, and if you listen to people who now him, he was always going to Nashville (largely for personal, lifestyle reasons).

People need to understand if we re-sign DeBrincat to an 8M deal, we have no money left over.

Would barely have enough to re-sign Pinto and Brannstrom on cheap short-term deals and fill out the rest of the roster with cheap depth paid around league minimum.

Would leave zero room to re-sign Hamonic and no room to add a competent goalie, which is kind of a necessity given Forsberg is hardly a proven #1 and is coming off multiple MCL tears.

Might be in the best interest of both parties to move him somewhere else.

It's a very tough situation.

If you keep Debrincat, you're right, there's no money left.
If you trade Debrincat and you lose a top 6 forward to injury next year, you're hooped once again.

 

[GCK]

Why replace something when you can have both

Because Debrincat will be overpaid as a 2nd line and 2nd PP player who has challenges defensively.

 

[swiftwin]

People need to understand if we re-sign DeBrincat to an 8M deal, we have no money left over.

Would barely have enough to re-sign Pinto and Brannstrom on cheap short-term deals and fill out the rest of the roster with cheap depth paid around league minimum.

Would leave zero room to re-sign Hamonic and no room to add a competent goalie, which is kind of a necessity given Forsberg is hardly a proven #1 and is coming off multiple MCL tears.

Might be in the best interest of both parties to move him somewhere else.

That's fine since the most of the team is already locked up. We'll absolutely have room to sign Hamonic, Pinto and Brannstrom.

The only spots left after that will be the 4th line, where it's perfectly fine to have minimum paid players.

 

[GCK]

Would be calling Barry Trotz as soon as he got into office and see if anything could be done around Tomasino/Evangalista and DBC.

They need some goal scoring pretty badly, have the cap space for him, and would likely be a place DBC would consider staying long term.

Get either one of those guys, and the 7 million in cap space, and fill in the remaining holes on the team, would be a smart move, obviously much less than we gave up but that’s a sunk cost at this point.

I would take that in a heartbeat.

 

[5ive4Fighting]

Not really. 95% of the time an upcoming UFA has ties to the city they're playing in and gives the generic "Love it here, so does my family, would love to stay, agent is handling it, it'll all work out" answer.

Usually you don't have an upcoming UFA who was acquired less than a year ago being as non-comittal as Debrincat is. The guy never wanted to leave Chicago and visibly struggled all season. It hasn't been a perfect fit, and he's not pretending like it has been.

Even Duchene was way more "enthusiastic" about potentially staying here, and if you listen to people who now him, he was always going to Nashville (largely for personal, lifestyle reasons).



It's a very tough situation.

If you keep Debrincat, you're right, there's no money left.
If you trade Debrincat and you lose a top 6 forward to injury next year, you're hooped once again.

Duchene is not the yardstick here. He was full of shit in Ottawa, and then he was full of shit again in Columbus where he did the same song and dance stringing them along. His issue is that he likes the sound of his own voice too much, and you have to fill those answers to media with some kind of words or other. May as well make them insincere, self-serving ones.

 

[GCK]

Seriously. Y'all are acting like a psycho girlfriend who's been dumped too many times and is now trying to be the dumper instead of the dumpee at the tiniest hint of uncertainty.

I swear, we do this every single time we have a pending free agent. We went through the same shit when Tkachuk and Norris were RFAs.

I’ve been on the move Debrincat train for months. I’m actually terrified he WILL sign.

 

[Hale The Villain]

That's fine since the most of the team is already locked up. We'll absolutely have room to sign Hamonic, Pinto and Brannstrom.

The only spots left after that will be the 4th line, where it's perfectly fine to have minimum paid players.

I ran the numbers: Salary Cap: - The Coming Cap Crunch Conundrum

If DeBrincat gets 8M there's only 6.4M left over to re-sign Pinto, Brannstrom and 3 depth players.

If Pinto and Brannstrom get around 1.5M each, which I think is being optimistic, that leaves a little over 3M to sign 3 depth players (probably Gauthier, Gambrell and JBD). That's also going with a 22/23 man roster.

There's no room left for Hamonic in that scenario. Nor is there any room to add a good goalie, as it's assuming we go with Sogaard as backup due to his low cap hit, which would be madness as he's nowhere close to ready.

 

[swiftwin]

Not really. 95% of the time an upcoming UFA has ties to the city they're playing in and gives the generic "Love it here, so does my family, would love to stay, agent is handling it, it'll all work out" answer.

Usually you don't have an upcoming UFA who was acquired less than a year ago being as non-comittal as Debrincat is. The guy never wanted to leave Chicago and visibly struggled all season. It hasn't been a perfect fit, and he's not pretending like it has been.

Even Duchene was way more "enthusiastic" about potentially staying here, and if you listen to people who now him, he was always going to Nashville (largely for personal, lifestyle reasons).

Congrats, you've just proved that what players say in the media doesn't mean jack shit.

Remember when Karlsson sent out a farewell tweet in San Jose?

It's a very tough situation.

If you keep Debrincat, you're right, there's no money left.
If you trade Debrincat and you lose a top 6 forward to injury next year, you're hooped once again.

This is the most absurd thing I've read today. "Losing a top 6 player to injury might suck, so lets get rid of a top 6 player now so we don't have to worry about losing a top 6 player".

You say "no money left", but no money left for what?? Our top 9 is locked in place, our D-core is locked in place. We don't need any more money.

 

[Hale The Villain]

It's a very tough situation.

If you keep Debrincat, you're right, there's no money left.
If you trade Debrincat and you lose a top 6 forward to injury next year, you're hooped once again.

I agree but I think the 2nd line LW role will be more easily filled in case of injury than in goal.

People are just kind of glossing over the fact that Forsberg just had a terrible injury. We don't know how he's going to come back from it, and it's not like he was an established #1 before it happened.

Sogaard showed flashes but he's clearly not ready to make the full-time jump to the NHL. Dude has only played like 60 AHL games in the past 3 years due to injuries of his own.

We desperately need to find a decent goalie to provide some insurance in net. If it means downgrading on offense I'm fine with it.

 

[DaveMatthew]

That's fine since the most of the team is already locked up. We'll absolutely have room to sign Hamonic, Pinto and Brannstrom.

The only spots left after that will be the 4th line, where it's perfectly fine to have minimum paid players.

If Debrincat gets $8.15M per season (more than Norris, less than Tkachuk), committed salary would be $75.5M for next season (this assumes Greig is the 3rd line LWer).

You'd still need to re-sign Pinto, Brannstrom, Hamonic, Gauthier and get a 40-game NHL goalie for $8M total.

Pinto, on a short bridge, probably takes $2.75M.
Brannstrom $1.25M.
Hamonic $1.5M.
Gauthier $850K.
An extra F or D at $800K (Crookshank, JBD, etc)

Leaving ~800k for an NHL goalie?

Not doable unless you can dump Joseph. Which would probably cost next year's 2nd.

Congrats, you've just proved that what players say in the media doesn't mean jack shit.

Remember when Karlsson sent out a farewell tweet in San Jose?


This is the most absurd thing I've read today. "Losing a top 6 player to injury might suck, so lets get rid of a top 6 player now so we don't have to worry about losing a top 6 player".

You say "no money left", but no money left for what?? Our top 9 is locked in place, our D-core is locked in place. We don't need any more money.

You keep saying our "top 9 is locked"... but it's not.

DeBrincat needs a new contract. So does Pinto. Neither of those players are signed for next season or "locked". Who knows what they're asking for.

 

[SlapJack]

Because Debrincat will be overpaid as a 2nd line and 2nd PP player who has challenges defensively.

DeBrincat was a big factor on the PP1 unit so not sure why he's going down to PP2. He had a down year and still led the team in assists, points, and 2nd in goals.

Yeah yeah Norris is coming back. Whatever. That doesn't automatically bump him down and he's excellent at entering the zone and making good plays on the PP. He keeps the play alive regularly where others cough it up.

His challenges defensively are being on the ice more than any other forward not named Tim and mostly with other players that have defensive issues. He is not bad but I guess if you just look at plus minus he belongs in the AHL