Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

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Good! Given that at $9M he has negative surplus value, you take the $9M and use them for better things.
If he becomes a free agent this summer that is not good at all. You basically gave up a 7th overall pick for one season of a second line player in a year you didn't even make the playoffs. That can't be an option. You are better off retaining salary for a year and try to recoup a first rounder back.
 
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Thing is for Debrincat he can get a guaranteed 9M this coming season and when teams get a bump in cap flexibility the following year he can be a UFA. The cat has a ton of leverage tbh.

I also rather not have Debrincat at a 9M cap hit next year. but that becomes complicated because if you don't qualify he becomes a free agent if you qualify he signs and pretty much becomes a little harder to move as a 9M rental when everyone is cash strapped.
Team elected arbitration is the way to go. There's no way he gets 9 mil in arb, imo and it essentially gets you to the same place as a QO (a one yr extension). The only advantage to a QO is no animosity, but if he's going to sign the QO you probably already have animosity,

With arbitration he will likely be easier to move than as an unsigned RFA because you know what he's costing you, and can still negotiate an extention

.
 
If he becomes a free agent this summer that is not good at all. You basically gave up a 7th overall pick for one season of a second line player in a year you didn't even make the playoffs. That can't be an option. You are better off retaining salary for a year and try to recoup a first rounder back.
I agree that it's not good at all. But paying $9M for one year of DBC is even worse. You're not going to recoup a first rounder back with that contract. What you might recoup is going to be less than the value of whatever else you could use the money for.
 
I can see the risk in qualifying him. But it would seem to be quite a different situation than Stone or Duchene. They were seeing the writing on the wall of a multi year rebuild as they were entering their peak years. An obvious mismatch. But Brinksy is most likely going to want to stay here and find the fair price to do it.
 
Honestly I think we gotta trade him, he’s gonna kill our cap and we shouldn’t for a 2nd line LW

I’d rather spread 8mil out into two roster players

On the other hand if the trade market sucks and he wants to sign a reasonable deal I’m happy either way. I just don’t see this as a must sign scenario and hope they approach it that way
 
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Team elected arbitration is the way to go. There's no way he gets 9 mil in arb, imo and it essentially gets you to the same place as a QO (a one yr extension). The only advantage to a QO is no animosity, but if he's going to sign the QO you probably already have animosity,

With arbitration he will likely be easier to move than as an unsigned RFA because you know what he's costing you, and can still negotiate an extention

.
Dorion did confirm yesterday they will extend a QO if they don't agree to a contract before then which might mean arb is off the table.

- - -
I think a front loaded deal with signing bonuses is the way to do it.

Year 1: 9M signing bonus + 1M Salary = 10M .
Year 2: 9M Salary
Year 3: 8M Salary
Year 4: 4M signing bonus +4m salary = 8M
Year 5: 4M signing bonus +4m salary = 8M
Year 6: 5M signing bonus + 2M salary = 7M
Year 7: 7M Salary
Year 8: 4M signing bonus + 1M salary = 5M

= 7.75m AAV over 8 years.


- He makes 1M more than his QO and gets all that QO money up front next year
- Contract expires for him at 33 so he will get a go at another mid term contract if he takes care of himself which is good for both sides.
- Signing bonuses provide him buy out protection and long term financial security for his family.
- He gets to be a part of this team with a core locked up for a similar duration.
- the aav is a 1.25M discount over his QO. when cap jumps in a few year the contract will be looked at as a sweet deal if he is giving 20g40a type production.
 
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Dorion did confirm yesterday they will extend a QO if they don't agree to a contract before then which might mean arb is off the table.
I doubt it, I think he was just saying they don't plan on walking away and letting him become a UFA. I mean, it's possible they won't consider arbitration, but I think it's more likely he just meant the plan is to sign him and won't be walking away, they will be retaining the asset.
 
What leverage is threatening to trade him? If we're worried about DeBrincat just playing out his QO and hitting UFA he could do the exact same thing in whatever city Dorion threatens to trade him to.
Ya never know, there might be certain teams that he might aggressively want to extend with (maybe hometown club in Detroit)
 
At the end of the day, I think you guys are over thinking this

DeBrincat is aware of the salary dollars paid to our top players. He either wants to slide in to that structure and stay here or he doesn't

His interest in staying will determine where this goes
 
At the end of the day, I think you guys are over thinking this

DeBrincat is aware of the salary dollars paid to our top players. He either wants to slide in to that structure and stay here or he doesn't

His interest in staying will determine where this goes
Agreed.

And without actually knowing the guy, it’s really hard to know what his priorities are…. Does he truly like the other guys on the team? Does he think it’s a future SC contender and want to be a part of it? Does his wife like the city and think it’ll be a good place to raise their kids? Or did she find the winter long and miserable? Or will they both just want to maximize the dollars he makes in his entire career?

Impossible to know any of these things without actually knowing the people.
 
At the end of the day, I think you guys are over thinking this

DeBrincat is aware of the salary dollars paid to our top players. He either wants to slide in to that structure and stay here or he doesn't

His interest in staying will determine where this goes
I don’t think I’m overthinking it. I’d personally prefer to move him but either way he cannot go into the year on a 1 year deal.
 
Agreed.

And without actually knowing the guy, it’s really hard to know what his priorities are…. Does he truly like the other guys on the team? Does he think it’s a future SC contender and want to be a part of it? Does his wife like the city and think it’ll be a good place to raise their kids? Or did she find the winter long and miserable? Or will they both just want to maximize the dollars he makes in his entire career?

Impossible to know any of these things without actually knowing the people.
There can be all kinds of reasons why a player wants to stay or go and you've listed several of them

Imo there's just no way he stays here regardless of contract if he and his wife don't want to be here which makes the entire QO/arbitration debate a moot point.

If he wants to stay, they'll sort out a long term deal that works for everyone

And if he doesn't want to be here...why would you beat your head against the wall trying to get him to stay?

I don’t think I’m overthinking it. I’d personally prefer to move him but either way he cannot go into the year on a 1 year deal.
I agree on the 1 year thing

I'd like to keep him though
 
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Honestly I think we gotta trade him, he’s gonna kill our cap and we shouldn’t for a 2nd line LW

I’d rather spread 8mil out into two roster players

On the other hand if the trade market sucks and he wants to sign a reasonable deal I’m happy either way. I just don’t see this as a must sign scenario and hope they approach it that way
That's kinda the way I feel about it, especially with Sanderson needing a new contract in a few years.
 
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Good! Given that at $9M he has negative surplus value, you take the $9M and use them for better things.
What better things?

The only UFA available this year who has more points that Debrincat this year is Joe Pavelski. The defensive list is relatively sparse too maybe Severson.

I guess you can try and sprinkle the cash around the 3rd/4th lines, but then you overpay for a few third liners. Sooner overpay for a 1st liner if it is just one year.

Its a tight spot, that is why we got him relatively cheap. Everyone in the league knew this was coming. But in any case no way he walks. GMs around the league never allow this to happen because then they look like fools. Giving up a 7th overall for a rental and you do not make the playoffs? No, better to do arbitration (if long term is not an option), QO at worst and recoup assets at trade deadline. Or if you are doing well in the standings, hold on as he is good enough to be the difference maker to making the playoffs for a bubble team, which I'd assume we still are next year.
 
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Love DeBrincat, but it's time to move on.

Allocate the money for another top 4 defender and a real number 1. We likely would be able to add a great middle top 6 for very cheap to join a potential contender.

Trade him for as many picks and prospects. Flip that for Saros/Demko/Gibson
 
Love DeBrincat, but it's time to move on.

Allocate the money for another top 4 defender and a real number 1. We likely would be able to add a great middle top 6 for very cheap to join a potential contender.

Trade him for as many picks and prospects. Flip that for Saros/Demko/Gibson
Honestly I’d be happy flipping him for futures (TDL ammo) and going after Varlamov or Anderssen on a 1 year deal to pair with Forsberg.
 
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Honestly I think we gotta trade him, he’s gonna kill our cap and we shouldn’t for a 2nd line LW

I’d rather spread 8mil out into two roster players

On the other hand if the trade market sucks and he wants to sign a reasonable deal I’m happy either way. I just don’t see this as a must sign scenario and hope they approach it that way
Well Norris is now a 2nd line centre making basically $8 per year. And he doesn't have the scoring pedigree of DBC. So should the Sens get rid of him?
 
We better not qualify him then, sounds like a much better idea to just let him become UFA right away...

They are going to try and sign him, if that fails, they will try to trade him, if they can't get a trade done prior to June 15th, they likely elect for arbitration, or if for some reason think his award will exceed 9 mil, qualify him. Then they'll continue to try and trade him.

This is just like people freaking out that Kleven or any other College kid will walk themselves to UFA, people need to stop getting ahead of themselves.
It's not the same as a college player on any level. All he needs to do is sign his QO and he walks to UFA. It's obvious....He signed the original deal because he wanted to be in this position. If a team ops for Arb the rocky relationship is even worse.

You're correct if the sens don't qualify him he is a UFA. But if they do qualify him he's basically a UFA. That's why Chicago traded him and that's why the sens should have never dealt for him if he didnt have an extention in place. That's why he should have been dealt at the deadline this year.

Only option now is a Matt Tkachuk like trade.

Well Norris is now a 2nd line centre making basically $8 per year. And he doesn't have the scoring pedigree of DBC. So should the Sens get rid of him?
No the situations are nothing alike in any way. First of all Norris is signed. Secondly he's a two way centeman. Not a one dimensional winger who is undersized. Two very big differences.
 
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Ya never know, there might be certain teams that he might aggressively want to extend with (maybe hometown club in Detroit)
The only option if he won't sign a long term deal here is to trade him to a team that he is willing to do it with. We all know how great Dorion is with no leverage. Lol. They gotta get what they can for him. Arb is not an option. Just results in a disgruntled player. What a terrible decision it was to trade for him with no extension. So dumb.
 
Love DeBrincat, but it's time to move on.

Allocate the money for another top 4 defender and a real number 1. We likely would be able to add a great middle top 6 for very cheap to join a potential contender.

Trade him for as many picks and prospects. Flip that for Saros/Demko/Gibson
Which of Chabot, Chychrun, Sanderson and Zub do you not consider a top 4 defender? Or do you want 5 top 4 defenders?

Demko has been awful since returning from surgery. Gibson has been under 905 save percentage for 5 years now.
 
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Love DeBrincat, but it's time to move on.

Allocate the money for another top 4 defender and a real number 1. We likely would be able to add a great middle top 6 for very cheap to join a potential contender.

Trade him for as many picks and prospects. Flip that for Saros/Demko/Gibson
Another top 4 defender? Assuming Dorion finds a team willing to trade one for DeBrincat, which one of Chabot/Zub/Chychrun/Sanderson is this player going to replace?
 
The only option if he won't sign a long term deal here is to trade him to a team that he is willing to do it with. We all know how great Dorion is with no leverage. Lol. They gotta get what they can for him. Arb is not an option. Just results in a disgruntled player. What a terrible decision it was to trade for him with no extension. So dumb.
I'm thinking some of the contracts Dorion signed look pretty good for a guy with no leverage. Stuetzle comes to mind.

Terrible decision? It's a business. You've cited several times recently that we have the most improved attendance and that equals revenue.

Bottom line for me is if DeBrincat wants to be here, it'll work out. And if he doesn't he'll move on. And they've got time to sort that out
 
I'm thinking some of the contracts Dorion signed look pretty good for a guy with no leverage. Stuetzle comes to mind.

Terrible decision? It's a business. You've cited several times recently that we have the most improved attendance and that equals revenue.

Bottom line for me is if DeBrincat wants to be here, it'll work out. And if he doesn't he'll move on. And they've got time to sort that out
Stutzle contract situaton and Debrincat are polar opposites I dont see how they are related in any way other than its with the same organization. One player is coming off his ELC the other was a year away from complete control of his destination.

They actually dont have any time. The tiny amount of leverage Dorion had is now gone because he said he would qualify him. If he isnt going to sign they have to trade him to a team he is willing to do it with. Cant burn 3 picks including 7th OA like that.

Attendance didnt need Debrincat to increase.
 

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