Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[playasRus]

We shouldn't even consider keeping DeBrincat for the second year of his contract if he isn't willing to re-sign long-term by next off-season.

If he isn't extended by next summer we should trade him for a package of young assets, hopefully as much or more than we dealt to acquire in this major buyer's market, and then try to replace him via UFA or by trade with a top 6 forward that will be here for more than one season.

Walking him to UFA at 25 with a 1 year deal or his 9M qualifying offer to try to extend a contending window by only a single season would be a horrible decision that would blow up in our faces much like what happened to the Isles with Tavares and the Flames with Gaudreau.

Honestly, if we could get him for anything less than a 4 year contract, could be a win. Assuming there wouldn't be much of a cap discount at 8 years anyways (e.g. 9.5M x 8 years vs 10.5M x 3 years).

Reason I'd rather a 3-4 year contract is that 50% of our cap wouldn't be fixed on Brady - Norris - Chabot - (DeBrincat) for a near decade. It seems like it'll be a strongly competitive team but I'd rather flexibility in those later years if we need to retool. Everyone can predict that all of those guys, DeBrincat specifically will remain a 35G scorer at 30 years old. I'd rather not gamble that.

Kreider, Ovie, Duchene, Stamkos, Nelson, Tarasenko, Marchand, Crosby, Marchessault are the only 30 over guys to have scored over 30 goals this past season.

Ovie, Kane, Pavelski, Marchand, Crosby, Toews, Bergeron, the last ful 82 game season before then. The age of drop off seems to be 31 because at that point, only Crosby/Ovie are consistently in that 30 goals/82 game category. Stamkos did it this past saeason as a 31 year old too, and many would consider him in the elite echelon of players juts a tier below generational. While Marchand paced 30 the last few shortened seasons.

Then if we talk about asset management, would trading 7OA for 1+3 years of a top 3-6 winger be worst than 1 year + assets recouped (likely mid-late 1st + B prospect)? I'd argue I want that 4 year trial of a stacked top 6 - so long as DeBrincat's camp somehow agrees to "minimal" term of more than 1 year but less than 4 year extension.

 

[Micklebot]

@Hale The Villain isn’t wrong, everyone does say that. Matthew Tkachuk said it literally a month before forcing his way out of Calgary.

That said, this team is nowhere near where it was in 2018 and I don’t think it’ll be too difficult to convince DeBrincat to stay provided we pay him.

Maybe he would have extended long term before Gaudreau leaving. Circumstances change, everyone thought Tkachuk wanted to go to StL but he signed a long term deal in Florida. Duchene was sick of rebuilding and happy to get out of Colorado and on to a team coming off an Eastern conf final, then the team almost immediately imploded, circumstances change.

Hard to blame either guy for having second thoughts. If DeBrincat is open to signing here with term, it's the teams job to continue to make it attractive to do so.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Honestly, if we could get him for anything less than a 4 year contract, could be a win. Assuming there wouldn't be much of a cap discount at 8 years anyways (e.g. 9.5M x 8 years vs 10.5M x 3 years).

Reason I'd rather a 3-4 year contract is that 50% of our cap wouldn't be fixed on Brady - Norris - Chabot - (DeBrincat) for a near decade. It seems like it'll be a strongly competitive team but I'd rather flexibility in those later years if we need to retool. Everyone can predict that all of those guys, DeBrincat specifically will remain a 35G scorer at 30 years old. I'd rather not gamble that.

Kreider, Ovie, Duchene, Stamkos, Nelson, Tarasenko, Marchand, Crosby, Marchessault are the only 30 over guys to have scored over 30 goals this past season.

Ovie, Kane, Pavelski, Marchand, Crosby, Toews, Bergeron, the last ful 82 game season before then. The age of drop off seems to be 31 because at that point, only Crosby/Ovie are consistently in that 30 goals/82 game category. Stamkos did it this past saeason as a 31 year old too, and many would consider him in the elite echelon of players juts a tier below generational. While Marchand paced 30 the last few shortened seasons.

Then if we talk about asset management, would trading 7OA for 1+3 years of a top 3-6 winger be worst than 1 year + assets recouped (likely mid-late 1st + B prospect)? I'd argue I want that 4 year trial of a stacked top 6 - so long as DeBrincat's camp somehow agrees to "minimal" term of more than 1 year but less than 4 year extension.

That would be great but I can't see DeBrincat accepting a 3-4 year contract over an 8 year contract.

If we're talking about a 9M average salary, that's risking 36-45M in hopes of what exactly?

A more likely scenario is that we re-sign DeBrincat to a 9M x 8YR contract and then try to trade him (or one of our other top forwards) in 3-4 years.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Exactly this.

Yes, players always do lip service like "I want to stay" and " I want to re-sign". But it's really not hard to read between the lines. DeBrincat says multiple times in the interview that he likes the direction of this team, he likes that the core is young and roughly his age, he likes the moves the team made after acquiring him (Giroux, Talbot & Norris contract). It's really not hard to see how different the circumstances are between DeBrincat and Duchene. The players themselves can also see the difference in these circumstances. They aren't stupid.

He also said he’s a pretty simple boring guy. So he may really like Ottawa. Which is close enough to Detroit

 

[swiftwin]

He also said he’s a pretty simple boring guy. So he may really like Ottawa. Which is close enough to Detroit

Him and Josh Norris can go for walks in nature.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

He also said he’s a pretty simple boring guy. So he may really like Ottawa. Which is close enough to Detroit

Him and Josh Norris can go for walks in nature.

Being boring is the best.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

It's still sort of surreal to me that we got Debrincat.

When the rumors of his availability started I thought it was just over-zealous speculation from pundits/fans. The fact a 24 year old 40 goal scorer got traded, and to the Sens, is incredible.

 

[JungleBeat]

Have a good feeling Debrincat will sign long-term if the team performs. Duchene and Stone left because the team was hot garbage.

 

[Ice-Tray]

He also said that he doesn’t like to live around, which is a good sign.

I suspect he’ll love the group and be happy to stay long term, but the guys have to gel, and management has to make the right offer.

I’m optimistic that we can sign him.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I hope he gets off to a hot start in the 1st 20 games and really likes his deployment, line mates and team mates ...He is coming from a more mature group and is a quiet guy so I think the whole dressing room thing is going to play a big factor.

I am optimistic he likes it and wants to stay.. Let's hope that's the case and the $ are there to keep him.

I think Brown, Paul and White are glue guys that helped the room .. hopefully they can keep a healthy fun environment going with no big cliques,

 

[Crosside]

I can see a deal around 8.2 m for 5 years

 

[playasRus]

Is there a window we can't extend him? E.g. once TDL passes we have to wait in until free agency opens?

 

[ATdaisuki]

Is there a window we can't extend him? E.g. once TDL passes we have to wait in until free agency opens?

I'm not the most knowledgeable on this stuff, but I think the only window like that is if we reach a one year extension on his next deal. If that happens, we won't be able to extend him additional years until, again don't quote me on this, January 2024. Other than that, don't think there are any restrictions.

 

[benjiv1]

I'm not the most knowledgeable on this stuff, but I think the only window like that is if we reach a one year extension on his next deal. If that happens, we won't be able to extend him additional years until, again don't quote me on this, January 2024. Other than that, don't think there are any restrictions.

This is correct, and is what happened with Stone.

 

[Sensinitis]

Best goal scorer we’ve had since Heatley. So exciting, and knowing that he’ll be stuck to Stützle’s wing make it so much more satisfying..

 

[TeamRenzo]

All it does is remove a barrier, it doesn't create a draw, but the fewer barriers there are the better.

You've currently got guys like Forsberg making jokes about not even believing Ottawa has a downtown, that's not because our downtown is uniquely bad among other NHL cities, it's because visiting teams fly in, take a 30 min bus ride through Nepean and greenbelt to the hotel, play their game, then bus back to the airport. That's the majority of NHL player's first impression of Ottawa, long bus rides though fields and suburbs.

It's not hard to see how a 15 min bus from the airport to a downtown hotel would drastically improve the visiting team's experience and impression of the city even without a particularly exciting downtown,

I've travelled a bunch through work and after a while, all the cities blend together, a 15 min bus ride will not improve anyone's impression of the city.

 

[Micklebot]

I've travelled a bunch through work and after a while, all the cities blend together, a 15 min bus ride will not improve anyone's impression of the city.

That's not at all what I said but thanks for your perspective.

 

[Sweatred]

Yes indeed. I won't be really happy with the trade & acquisition until Debrincat signs a longer term contract with the Senators or he is traded for a return similar to what we paid to acquire him. He might turn out to be a short term rental that cost us a high first round pick.

Part of me hopes that our young players play so well that it becomes obvious we can’t keep them all.

It will make it easier to trade him away if needed eVen in a playoff spot VS losing him for nothing

 

[KevinRedkey]

I've travelled a bunch through work and after a while, all the cities blend together, a 15 min bus ride will not improve anyone's impression of the city.

You missed his point entirely.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I can see a deal around 8.2 m for 5 years

That's a pipe dream. He's not going to sign for less years and lower salary than Brady Tkachuk.

Matthew is a better comparable. Got 9.5M x 8YRs from a desirable UFA destination with no state income tax.

 

[Sweatred]

That's a pipe dream. He's not going to sign for less years and lower salary than Brady Tkachuk.

Matthew is a better comparable. Got 9.5M x 8YRs from a desirable UFA destination with no state income tax.

Dang those Sunny Tax Free 🏝 Beaches … no idea what these gazilionaire kids like about those places…

 

[GCK]

Dang those Sunny Tax Free 🏝 Beaches … no idea what these gazilionaire kids like about those places…

Gaudreau.

 

[Sweatred]

Gaudreau.

2.5 % income tax … maybe he doesn’t like the or … but he sure likes his .

Those Sunny teams don’t have much cap space left … Calgary had lots but I guess he wasn’t interested in staying longer than he “HAD” too.

PS … I take it your not a 🏖 guy.

 

[Micklebot]

2.5 % income tax … maybe he doesn’t like the or … but he sure likes his .

Those Sunny teams don’t have much cap space left … Calgary had lots but I guess he wasn’t interested in staying longer than he “HAD” too.

PS … I take it your not a 🏖 guy.

He reportedly left significantly more money on the table from CGY even after the taxes and that's without tax avoidance strategies like bonuses for Americans that reside in low(er) tax states during the offseason, more from NJD too. Clb isnt an NHL tax haven, they are about as average as it gets in the NHL. When Gaudreau talked about why he chose Clb, he made it sound like it was family reasons,

 

[Yak]

Giroux has 3-4 years left in him max the Cat could take over that money.

Never mind all the cap savings will see over the next 3 years we should be fine.