Player Discussion Alex DeBrincat

[Ice-Tray]

Freidman podcast today, said they wouldn’t let anyone talk to him, until the basis of a trade was agreed on.

This makes sense. It might be best for us to do that same now that we have a list of teams he would sign and extension with. We don’t want DBC to be able to narrow down that list on his own based on the teams selling themselves to him as that could reduce our bargaining and trade leverage.

Teams knowing he would be open to extending there is all they need.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Maybe it helps to understand where you're starting from when you make a bet like that. He probably thought that Stepan could be won over too.

I don't think they didn't consider this situation as a possible outcome, I think they understated its likelihood.

The Chychrun deal is a good example of the opposite. We clearly have a leg up as a preferred destination for him.

In reality I presume Pierre acted out of his own interests and impulsiveness to ice a winner as quickly as possible to save his ass. While at the same time he was probably intimidated by Brady and Chabot asking him to bring in more help.

It was a principal / agent conflict in my mind. Either it works out and Pierre gets himself some clout with the future new owner, or it doesn't and he remains deadman walking. Risk / reward was there for Pierre, not for the organization.

I don’t believe this storyline folks are using in here at all. It’s self serving fantasy for those who dislike the guy. In reality, anyone who wanted to keep or get a new job in management would make sure that every move they make is for the betterment of the team right up until they are fired.

Risk/reward and gambling is pretty much the name of the game for a GM, in every team. Player chemistry, projections, and personal desires are not static, and often are not know quantities. The best you can do is project and hope. Some are better at this intangible talent than other, but it usually requires experience

 

[Big Muddy]

Freidman podcast today, said they wouldn’t let anyone talk to him, until the basis of a trade was agreed on.

OK, and I thought I read it somewhere yesterday as well.

Some teams that could be interested in Debrincat as a long term piece would probably want to know if what they are prepared to offer (cap hit) is in line with Debrincat's expectations. They might take the first step and then find out they aren't offering what Debrincat would accept. Seems like a longer process with perhaps some wasted time in this case.

Not sure how big of deal this is - just mulling things over.

 

[Big Muddy]

Separate topic. This discussion doesn't boil down to Dorion hater versus Dorion lover. That is off-target over simplification and more reflective of the way that a subset of people view things IMHO.

I think the real discussion or debate focuses on the merits of long term thinking and benefits versus short term and the risk versus benefit dichotomy. But, there's still more steps to occur before a final analysis can really occur. If Debrincat is moved, we don't know what the return is yet.

 

[Boud]

OK, and I thought I read it somewhere yesterday as well.

Some teams that could be interested in Debrincat as a long term piece would probably want to know if what they are prepared to offer (cap hit) is in line with Debrincat's expectations. They might take the first step and then find out they aren't offering what Debrincat would accept. Seems like a longer process with perhaps some wasted time in this case.

Not sure how big of deal this is - just mulling things over.

I think teams that are genuinely interested have a pretty good idea of what a contract looks like. It would be something like 7-8 years for 8.5M ish. Teams making offers will be ready to work around that. It's important to make this trade early in the summer because it's a big contract and we need to make that happen before rosters are set. That'll give more flexibility to the team acquiring him.

I'm hoping the return will be better a bit than I anticipated. As others have said there's not that many guys with his pedigree and talent level on the FA market.

 

[Micklebot]

Freidman podcast today, said they wouldn’t let anyone talk to him, until the basis of a trade was agreed on.

Dorion did an interview a while back (like during the year down) where he discussed the process of trying guys with expiring contracts and basically said that's how he does/did it,

There isn't much of a reason to do it any other way, especially with a desirable player.

 

[Big Muddy]

I think teams that are genuinely interested have a pretty good idea of what a contract looks like. It would be something like 7-8 years for 8.5M ish. Teams making offers will be ready to work around that. It's important to make this trade early in the summer because it's a big contract and we need to make that happen before rosters are set and give more flexibility to the team acquiring him.

Ya, I get that. However, what Debrincat is actually thinking or wants isn't actually known (by potential suitors). I mean would it be possible that teams might think $7.5 - $7.75 m/year is reasonable but Debrincat thinks (maybe adamant) that he will get $9 m?

Cap should be increasing and jumping up next year (2024-25) more so than this year, so I wonder if that might be part of the thinking for the Debrincat camp?

 

[SpezDispenser]

Did Dorion say that he wasn't going to allow teams that are interested to talk to Debrincat's camp? I thought I read that somewhere.

If it was one of the teams that were on his list, that would seem a little surprising. Does it mean that Debrincat has high expectations?

lol, that would be such a Dorion thing to do.

 

[Silencio]

So….if Steve Warnes latest article quoting a source close to the family is to be believed, DeBrincat does like Ottawa, would be happy to stay long term (which presumably means he has no issue with living in Canada like Garrioch keeps saying), but is deferring completely and entirely to his agent who is pushing for him to hit UFA unless Ottawa overpays, which Dorion is not willing to do.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

So….if Steve Warnes latest article quoting a source close to the family is to be believed, DeBrincat does like Ottawa, would be happy to stay long term (which presumably means he has no issue with living in Canada like Garrioch keeps saying), but is deferring completely and entirely to his agent who is pushing for him to hit UFA unless Ottawa overpays, which Dorion is not willing to do.

I think it’s pretty dishonest.

 

[Silencio]

I think it’s pretty dishonest.

Probably. But the again, how many times have we seen Garrioch lay the groundwork for turning the fanbase against a player just before Ottawa ships him out of town (“he didn’t want to be here”)? How do we know that’s not what’s happening with DeBrincat?

 

[Tragedy]

lol, that would be such a Dorion thing to do.

Standard league practice. Why would you give up any leverage in a trade?

 

[Micklebot]

So….if Steve Warnes latest article quoting a source close to the family is to be believed, DeBrincat does like Ottawa, would be happy to stay long term (which presumably means he has no issue with living in Canada like Garrioch keeps saying), but is deferring completely and entirely to his agent who is pushing for him to hit UFA unless Ottawa overpays, which Dorion is not willing to do.

I mean, from a purely maximizing your contract perspective, for a player coming off a down season but with the talent bounce back, who has been remarkably durable over his career, it makes a lot of sense to defer signing your long term deal until next year when you can leverage multiple teams bidding for your services.

The down side to this is it means any sign and trade will likely fall apart since if true he'll only extend for overpayment regardless of where...

I think I'd have been happier if he did just want out of Canada...

 

[Crosside]

I have the feeling Pierre offer him 7-7.5 and Alex want close to 8.5 - 9. I read somewhere that he said, with all the young talent here with big money, he s worried what the plan is for him. I think he’s shy to ask more than Stutzle and Tkachuk

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I have the feeling Pierre offer him 7-7.5 and Alex want close to 8.5 - 9. I read somewhere that he said, with all the young talent here with big money, he s worried what the plan is for him. I think he’s shy to ask more than Stutzle and Tkachuk

Caufield has 4 RFA years left and is getting 7.85, Cat has just one RFA year left. There is no way Cat or his agent should be accepting less than 8 mil per.

 

[Rodzilla]

I have been rough on Dorion here and there but I can’t blame him for the Debrincat move.

Its not like players line up to come play in Ottawa so he went out and made a move for a young 40 goals scorer. I respect that.

I was very excited when he made the move. Watching Debrincat play this year tho id be lying if I said I wasnt a bit disappointed, not a big play driver IMO. Of course he was playing with a rookie C but still. Anyway, interesting end of the month ahead

 

[Crosside]

Caufield has 4 RFA years left and is getting 7.85, Cat has just one RFA year left. There is no way Cat or his agent should be accepting less than 8 mil per.

Exactly why he know that he can have this money here. Me I would be fine if he would be paid close to 9. This year will be tight but other years will be fine

 

[DJB]

So….if Steve Warnes latest article quoting a source close to the family is to be believed, DeBrincat does like Ottawa, would be happy to stay long term (which presumably means he has no issue with living in Canada like Garrioch keeps saying), but is deferring completely and entirely to his agent who is pushing for him to hit UFA unless Ottawa overpays, which Dorion is not willing to do.

So he is now using the agent as the scapegoat to save face

Got it

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

One thought keeps nagging me- I'd like to see him play a full season (at least 50-60 games) with Norris/Timmy.

So he is now using the agent as the scapegoat to save face

Got it

How do you know that's recent?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I have been rough on Dorion here and there but I can’t blame him for the Debrincat move.

Its not like players line up to come play in Ottawa so he went out and made a move for a young 40 goals scorer. I respect that.

I was very excited when he made the move. Watching Debrincat play this year tho id be lying if I said I wasnt a bit disappointed, not a big play driver IMO. Of course he was playing with a rookie C but still. Anyway, interesting end of the month ahead

After almost being forced to trade DeBrincat , would you be ok if he made the same kind of deal this off season... a high end winger, similar caliber on an expiring contract with no commitment to stay? 2023 picks are gone but say for our 2024 picks (1st, 2nd, 2 4ths) since its not likely a 7OA.

------------------------
Show me the money

“DeBrincat's crew won't forego the open auction of UFA next summer – not unless the Sens (or any team they might trade him to) step forward and really make it worth their while between now and then.”

I can't blame him for wanting to be paid. If the Sens are looking at preferred destinations.. the suitor has to be prepared to pony up... Not really news.
Question is will he take the $ and term in a not so preferred destination. I think money will talk.

Jackson has some experience with Ottawa; Logan Brown, Connor Brown and now Alex DeBrincat.. The message was similar with Connor Brown last summer.

 

[Ouroboros]

Probably. But the again, how many times have we seen Garrioch lay the groundwork for turning the fanbase against a player just before Ottawa ships him out of town (“he didn’t want to be here”)? How do we know that’s not what’s happening with DeBrincat?

The out-of-market insiders all pretty much back up Bruce on this though.

Dreger reported prior to the trade deadline that DeBrincat wouldn't re-sign in Ottawa, Friedman says that the Senators approached the DeBrincat camp numerous times during the season to open negotiations and never got any uptake, and Lebrun has also reported that he's not keen to sign a long-term extension.

Steve Warne is pretty much alone with his takes on this situation. Feels like agent-mediated PR to me.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Standard league practice. Why would you give up any leverage in a trade?

Maybe I misunderstood. Dorion is not letting them talk about an extension before finalizing a trade?

If that's the case, I don't get it. A signed player is better for value than an question mark imo.

 

[SenatorsLegionary]

Maybe I misunderstood. Dorion is not letting them talk about an extension before finalizing a trade?

If that's the case, I don't get it. A signed player is better for value than an question mark imo.

The way i understand it, Dorion will only be allowing teams to talk with DeBrincat's camp about an extension once the basis of a trade is agreed upon. So basically Dorion would be negotiating with interested teams on what a trade would be for a signed DeBrincat (without a new deal actually being in place yet), and if he's able to agree to the basis of a trade in principle with a team, that team would then be able to talk with DeBrincat to see if they can agree on an extension. If the interested team later can't agree to terms with Cat, then the trade that was agreed to falls through and simply never materializes.

Allowing the process to play out in this specific order is the right play in Dorion's position IMO. Permitting teams to only speak with DeBrincat after agreeing on trade terms protects the Senators' leverage in their trade talks; it prevents other teams from altering their offers if they feel extension negotiations with Cat are in their favor, and it also prevents Cat from dictating the strength of the offers coming from the interested teams.

Just as an example, let's say that Detroit, Dallas and Carolina are all very interested teams and they can speak with Cat and his agent before talking trade with Ottawa. Cat and his agent tell the teams his price is $8.5M x 8 to Detroit, $9.25M x 8 to Dallas and $10.5M x 8 to Carolina. In this situation, Cat could heavily influence or steer trade negotiations towards his preferred destination(s) which then impacts the return the Senators can get in a trade. The overpriced contract to Carolina can cause them to no longer be interested in a trade, decreasing the number of suitors and/or chances of a bidding war. Detroit catches wind through discussions with the agent that they have the most favorable AAV on an extension so they are no longer inclined to make their strongest trade offer to Ottawa. To maintain leverage in any potential deal, Dorion has to negotiate what a trade would be for an extended DeBrincat first, with the trade being contingent on an extension getting signed, and only allow teams to speak with Cat's camp afterwards.

I know it's not NHL, but I remember reading that the Houston Texans proceeded the same way a few years ago when they were shopping Deshaun Watson. Watson had a bunch of off-field issues going on and a no-trade clause and the Texans still got a great return when they eventually traded Watson. I don't have any NHL examples that come to mind right away, but I would imagine that there is a precedent in NHL trades too where this approach worked successfully. Dorion doesn't have the best track record, but he's handling this part of the process correctly.

 

[Big Muddy]

The way i understand it, Dorion will only be allowing teams to talk with DeBrincat's camp about an extension once the basis of a trade is agreed upon. So basically Dorion would be negotiating with interested teams on what a trade would be for a signed DeBrincat (without a new deal actually being in place yet), and if he's able to agree to the basis of a trade in principle with a team, that team would then be able to talk with DeBrincat to see if they can agree on an extension. If the interested team later can't agree to terms with Cat, then the trade that was agreed to falls through and simply never materializes.

Allowing the process to play out in this specific order is the right play in Dorion's position IMO. Permitting teams to only speak with DeBrincat after agreeing on trade terms protects the Senators' leverage in their trade talks; it prevents other teams from altering their offers if they feel extension negotiations with Cat are in their favor, and it also prevents Cat from dictating the strength of the offers coming from the interested teams.

Just as an example, let's say that Detroit, Dallas and Carolina are all very interested teams and they can speak with Cat and his agent before talking trade with Ottawa. Cat and his agent tell the teams his price is $8.5M x 8 to Detroit, $9.25M x 8 to Dallas and $10.5M x 8 to Carolina. In this situation, Cat could heavily influence or steer trade negotiations towards his preferred destination(s) which then impacts the return the Senators can get in a trade. The overpriced contract to Carolina can cause them to no longer be interested in a trade, decreasing the number of suitors and/or chances of a bidding war. Detroit catches wind through discussions with the agent that they have the most favorable AAV on an extension so they are no longer inclined to make their strongest trade offer to Ottawa. To maintain leverage in any potential deal, Dorion has to negotiate what a trade would be for an extended DeBrincat first, with the trade being contingent on an extension getting signed, and only allow teams to speak with Cat's camp afterwards.

I know it's not NHL, but I remember reading that the Houston Texans proceeded the same way a few years ago when they were shopping Deshaun Watson. Watson had a bunch of off-field issues going on and a no-trade clause and the Texans still got a great return when they eventually traded Watson. I don't have any NHL examples that come to mind right away, but I would imagine that there is a precedent in NHL trades too where this approach worked successfully. Dorion doesn't have the best track record, but he's handling this part of the process correctly.

I think you are right and have framed the concept or principle correctly.

But let's take a devil's advocate approach to this and look at from the perspective of the potential suitor GMs.

In your example with three teams, would those GMs just bid a little lower in the initial phase thinking that their goal is to not overpay and to bid just enough to secure discussions with the Debrincat camp? And, if Dorion knows it's better to get a bidding war going, would he not be inclined to allow all those three teams to speak with the Debrincat camp? I mean Dorion could potentially eliminate a low ball bidder using the technique being described. But, I got to think the other GMs are going to be smart enough to think about a good strategy on how to play this situation, and that Dorion cannot be too restrictive because there's risk not having enough potential bidders for Debrincat's services. But in the end, if the GMs who are interested are smart & play their cards correctly, you kind of end up in the same place you would ultimately without this process.

Anyhow, I think I'm just interested in the process and bouncing ideas around (thinking out loud) because of that interest. I haven't really formulated any set in stone type ideas on this, but find it kind of fascinating.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I think you are right and have framed the concept or principle correctly.

But let's take a devil's advocate approach to this and look at from the perspective of the potential suitor GMs.

In your example with three teams, would those GMs just bid a little lower in the initial phase thinking that their goal is to not overpay and to bid just enough to secure discussions with the Debrincat camp? And, if Dorion knows it's better to get a bidding war going, would he not be inclined to allow all those three teams to speak with the Debrincat camp? I mean Dorion could potentially eliminate a low ball bidder using the technique being described. But, I got to think the other GMs are going to be smart enough to think about a good strategy on how to play this situation, and that Dorion cannot be too restrictive because there's risk not having enough potential bidders for Debrincat's services. But in the end, if the GMs who are interested are smart & play their cards correctly, you kind of end up in the same place you would ultimately without this process.

Anyhow, I think I'm just interested in the process and bouncing ideas around (thinking out loud) because of that interest. I haven't really formulated any set in stone type ideas on this, but find it kind of fascinating.

That's what I would have imagined happening. You have DBC who has a number in mind for an extension and say...5 teams he'll do it with, you approach those teams and hope to f*** 3 or 4 of them say, yes, I want.

EDIT: Then you play them off each other, which I assume Dorion will do anyway if he's smart (lol)