Alex Burmistrov (Part II)

garret9

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Mar 31, 2012
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But I read here the other day ..."Burmistrov is proving a black hole on the offensive side of the game - a reincarnated James Wright."

So, one of these things (Burmistrov) is a lot like the other thing (Lowry) even though the other thing (Lowry) is pretty highly touted.

Silly bias, I guess. :laugh: :)

Lowry and Burmi have both wavered around 1.1-1.3 pts/60 typically.

James Wright was a 0.6 pts/60 player over his career... it's not even close to comparable.

I mean, his seasons were 0.0, 0.8, and 0.3!

The worst completed season for Burmi/Lowry was Burmi's 1.1 during the "Jokinen controversy" which I'm sure had an impact.
 

Huffer

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I actually think Burmi has been pretty good this year in the role he is asked to do. And by that I mean to play on a defensive third line. I'd ideally like his offensive numbers to be higher, but with the way that line plays, I'm not sure if that's even their mandate. And even saying that, I think Garret has a chart that shows that his line is scoring a little higher than league average for a 3rd line.

Burmi seems more often than not to sacrifice offensive opportunities to make sure he is in a defensive position, and the line as a whole tries to spend as much time in the offensive zone cycling and not taking chances. I imagine this is not by accident. If anything, I wouldn't mind seeing Burmi get a little selfish in the offensive zone and shoot the puck a little more.

I also thought he had a very good game against the Kings myself.
 

Positive

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I actually think Burmi has been pretty good this year in the role he is asked to do. And by that I mean to play on a defensive third line. I'd ideally like his offensive numbers to be higher, but with the way that line plays, I'm not sure if that's even their mandate. And even saying that, I think Garret has a chart that shows that his line is scoring a little higher than league average for a 3rd line.

Burmi seems more often than not to sacrifice offensive opportunities to make sure he is in a defensive position, and the line as a whole tries to spend as much time in the offensive zone cycling and not taking chances. I imagine this is not by accident. If anything, I wouldn't mind seeing Burmi get a little selfish in the offensive zone and shoot the puck a little more.

I also thought he had a very good game against the Kings myself.

Because Stafford is carrying the numbers of that line right now with a team-leading 5g, unsustainable 23% shooting percentage, and 21 shots on net, more than his two line-mates combined. But that's all because of the 'Everyone-is-better-because-of-Burmi-effect', of course. ;)

Not overly impressed so far - he's been ok. Haters gonna hate, lovers gonna love...
 

garret9

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Because Stafford is carrying the numbers of that line right now with a team-leading 5g, unsustainable 23% shooting percentage, and 21 shots on net, more than his two line-mates combined. But that's all because of the 'Everyone-is-better-because-of-Burmi-effect', of course. ;)

Not overly impressed so far - he's been ok. Haters gonna hate, lovers gonna love...

While Stafford has carried a high sh%, Burmi and Lowry have low sh%. Overall the line's combined sh% is about what you expect.

So the unsustainability in the scoring has more to do with the distribution.

Stafford has scored on 80% of the goals and assisted on 20% of the goals while on the ice.
Lowry has scored on 0% of the goals and assisted on 100% of the goals while on the ice.
Burmistrov has scored on 0% of the goals and assisted on 40% of the goals while on the ice.
(all at 5v5)

We expect these numbers to regress.
Ex: Stafford normally scores on 39.5% of goals and assists on 43.4 of the assists while on the ice.

That's where the unsustainability is running.
 

Whileee

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May 29, 2010
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I have really liked Burmi's game this year.

After there was some discussion about them not generating shots, I've noticed in the past few games that they have focused a lot more on putting the puck on the net, rather than just cycling the puck without generating shot attempts.
 

Ossific

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Aug 23, 2010
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I have really liked Burmi's game this year.

After there was some discussion about them not generating shots, I've noticed in the past few games that they have focused a lot more on putting the puck on the net, rather than just cycling the puck without generating shot attempts.

I actually disagree with you. I didn't mind his game before, don't like it much this year. He seems to be weaker. Get out battled, shying away from hits more than before, weak passes after board battles and stuff like icing the puck (dumping before center ice). The guy needs to be stronger on the puck. He used to be a possession beast.
 

Huffer

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Because Stafford is carrying the numbers of that line right now with a team-leading 5g, unsustainable 23% shooting percentage, and 21 shots on net, more than his two line-mates combined. But that's all because of the 'Everyone-is-better-because-of-Burmi-effect', of course. ;)

Not overly impressed so far - he's been ok. Haters gonna hate, lovers gonna love...

Personally, I think some of Staffords success is also due to the play of Burmi and Lowry.
 

Huffer

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I don't see that at all actually. Not sure what you're looking at.

Is that directed at my comment?

If so, Stafford has 5 goals this year and one was a deflection off his elbow.

His first goal of the year in Boston was a direct result of two excellent plays by Burmi and Lowry.

His second goal of the year was a play with Burmi clearing the puck, and then Lowry making an excellent play to out hustle two Bolts players to give Stafford a breakaway (which he luckily scored on after fanning on the puck).

His third goal is the Ehlers shot off the Elbow if I'm not mistaken.

The fourth goal (1st one against the Wild) has Lowry lug the puck out of the zone, Burmi trying to dump it in, hitting something and bouncing to Stafford before he takes a shot that Kuemper should have had. Nothing amazing from Burmi or Lowry, but not amazing from Stafford either.

Goal number 5 was a nice play by Buff to enter the zone and a nice play by Stafford. Burmi and Lowry were not on the ice.

3 out of the 5 goals IMO include contributions from Lowry and Burmi. I wish there was a good way to link to all of Stafford's goals on the NHL site because I just watched all of them.
 

JetsHomer

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Burmi is a good third liner and that's ok. It's not like we have a huge surplus of top9 talent
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Lowry and Burmi have both wavered around 1.1-1.3 pts/60 typically.

James Wright was a 0.6 pts/60 player over his career... it's not even close to comparable.

I don't think Lowry has a 'typical' level. He is just beginning his second year. You have 1 data point.

I was hoping for a nice little jump in his scoring this year, +~10-15 pts. The way his line is being used so far that may not happen. Or they may get better at it and better adapted to each other and start to score more. Other than just Stafford that is.

I think the comparison of Burmi to Wright is just wrong.
 

garret9

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I don't think Lowry has a 'typical' level. He is just beginning his second year. You have 1 data point.

I was hoping for a nice little jump in his scoring this year, +~10-15 pts. The way his line is being used so far that may not happen. Or they may get better at it and better adapted to each other and start to score more. Other than just Stafford that is.

I think the comparison of Burmi to Wright is just wrong.

Combined though they are multiple seasons of 1.1-1.3, which was the point...

In top of that, I don't expect much more from Lowry (although it is always possible), since he's yet to ever exceed Burmistrov in NHLEs at the same age.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Combined though they are multiple seasons of 1.1-1.3, which was the point...

In top of that, I don't expect much more from Lowry (although it is always possible), since he's yet to ever exceed Burmistrov in NHLEs at the same age.

Not related to my point at all. I'm not debating Lowry v Burmi. Although I think we have a much better idea of Burmi's offensive ceiling than we do of Lowry's. I think they could both score more if they were not being tasked with defense. I think SOME more will come. Not sure how much but the line is performing their roll well so far. I don't think there is any validity in the comparison to Wright.

I kind of liked Wright in a way. He always looked like he would score a little but every opportunity passed with no result. It became frustrating and I got tired of waiting. I liked his skating and his effort level. Unfortunately he just couldn't produce results at the NHL level.
 

truck

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I don't think Lowry has a 'typical' level. He is just beginning his second year. You have 1 data point.

I was hoping for a nice little jump in his scoring this year, +~10-15 pts. The way his line is being used so far that may not happen. Or they may get better at it and better adapted to each other and start to score more. Other than just Stafford that is.

I think the comparison of Burmi to Wright is just wrong.

23 + 15 = 38

That is quality second line production, not really realistic for a third liner that doesn't kill penalties.
 

KingBogo

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Nov 29, 2011
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Combined though they are multiple seasons of 1.1-1.3, which was the point...

In top of that, I don't expect much more from Lowry (although it is always possible), since he's yet to ever exceed Burmistrov in NHLEs at the same age.

Burmi and Lowry's NHL production has almost been a dead heat, with Lowry ahead by a nose. Counting regular season and playoffs up to today. Burmi has 61 points in 203 games for .30 PPG. Lowry has 30 points in 93 games for a .32 PPG. Watching them both this season, I'd wager Lowry gradually ups his PPG, while I have my doubts Burmi does by much. IMO once Petan gets his chance in the top 9 it is Burmi who drops to the 4th. Not that he has been disappointing but he will never generate much offense, while he can be very strong in his own end. He just strikes me as a player who can anchor the 4th line on a strong forward group, which I think the Jets are getting close to becoming.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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23 + 15 = 38

That is quality second line production, not really realistic for a third liner that doesn't kill penalties.

IIRC that is roughly the pace he was on the second half of last season, or close to that pace. He started pretty slowly. Some improvement wouldn't be too surprising. That assumes the same kind of usage as last year.
 

fergiesbeak

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I think burmi is getting better as the season goes along. If he keeps things simple and doesn't do his figure 8 skating at the blueline he is an effective forward.
 

jimsabo21

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The one thing I've noticed most about the Burmi / Lowry / Stafford line is that Burmi is by far the most likely to cover for a pinching defenseman. Rarely do you see Lowry / Stafford covering the point.

The Jets D pinches alot this year, and Burmistrov has been very responsible covering that spot. That will no doubt hurt his offense slightly, but is best for the team. I would actually like to see Burmi become a bit for selfish in the offensive zone rather than playing high all the time.
 

CaptainChef

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The one thing I've noticed most about the Burmi / Lowry / Stafford line is that Burmi is by far the most likely to cover for a pinching defenseman. Rarely do you see Lowry / Stafford covering the point.

The Jets D pinches alot this year, and Burmistrov has been very responsible covering that spot. That will no doubt hurt his offense slightly, but is best for the team. I would actually like to see Burmi become a bit for selfish in the offensive zone rather than playing high all the time.

That's interesting -- we need those players for sure. I saw that a lot of folks liked Burmi's game yesterday, but I still wasn't overly impressed. Perhaps I'm looking for the wrong things. I'm still of the opinion that a Petan-Burmi switch would be great, but maybe I'm just a lot higher on Petan than I should be.

Speaking of guys hanging back to support the D, who else has been good doing that? Quite often I see Ehlers back there or at least trailing the play. Who else - Petan?
 

allan5oh

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Speaking of guys hanging back to support the D, who else has been good doing that? Quite often I see Ehlers back there or at least trailing the play. Who else - Petan?

I'm pretty sure you'll see everyone doing it since it is part of the system.
 

allan5oh

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some guys are better at understanding the game and reading that. watch a guy like peluso who will never pick on things compared to burmi or little or wheeler who rotate amazingly.

Next home game I go to I'll pay attention to this. Maybe even write some of it down. I know they didn't do it at all the first year, but it wasn't until Maurice came that they really cemented it. It was hilarious people complaining about D pinching up the boards, nobody covering them, in that first year. Now teams do it all the time, not just at the end of the game.
 

Holden Caulfield

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Next home game I go to I'll pay attention to this. Maybe even write some of it down. I know they didn't do it at all the first year, but it wasn't until Maurice came that they really cemented it. It was hilarious people complaining about D pinching up the boards, nobody covering them, in that first year. Now teams do it all the time, not just at the end of the game.

this is basic peewee age stuff. but some players just dont pick up on it. its hockey iq stuff some players have it others dont no matter how many times you point it out to them.

and im including rotations in all three zones in this btw since its easier to talk about. covering the d is just one of the many rotations teams need to pull off. easiest to see is d zone. watch a guy like peluso skate straight "rw" spot and never move. then watch burmi fill in to proper f1, f2, f3 or even d1, d2 spot and the guys know to rotate properly (mostly). this type of spotting rotations is an extension of burmi picking up on the missing d on a pinch in o-zone.
 
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