Alex Burmistrov (Part II)

[jetkarma*]

Wouldn't you be happier if you were wrong about Burmi?

Would I be happier it those issues weren't actualities? yes .

That's not being wrong . People are quoting Maurice on what he said about Burmistrov , on thing he did say was " some things have to sort themselves out , contract , his commitment to the team " .

No one made that statement up , that's real as well .

Like Maurice , not at all opposed to having him back , I am certain Maurice would not accept him back if it wasn't with the right commitment either . Bottom line , as it should be .

 

[garret9]

You *could* be wrong about his on ice impact...

 

[jetkarma*]

You *could* be wrong about his on ice impact...

As you *could* be . He certainly has not performed as a top 2 C in my estimation . He hasn't produced as you alluded he would , that we do know.

I have a realistic view of this player , never said get him out of town , don't allow him back , as some have . Never said he couldn't determine his career path .

He is not what he was presented to be by most people when the Jets returned , imo . Does that mean he has no value ? Not at all .

However for those that want to pretend the issues were not there or haven't continued , that isn't realistic. Maurice was pretty open about having him be a part of this team again , as many have wanted to post . Let's not dismiss ALL he said , issues to be determined , his commitment to the team , that isn't insignificant . There's a pattern , not a positive one , one that can change,but as Maurice said , that is something to be determined . Doubt he said that without meaning it .

Saying that , yes I would like to be wrong about his production , please , pretty please .

He's a decent secondary piece at this time . Brings PK ability , puck possesion , skating and at times applied effort. He's worth exploring and perhaps bringing back . He has upside , but as I have always said , he is the one that controls the outcome , both on and off the ice .

Let's see what happens, it would benefit the Jets if he bought in and made the team and winning the priority . I truly hope he does , as right now he has very little value to the team and that is not a good return for the 8th overall pick that should as a player that will be 24 when hockey is back in October , be a significant contributor . That doesn't help the team .

 

[Jet]

As you *could* be . He certainly has not performed as a top 2 C in my estimation . He hasn't produced as you alluded he would , that we do know.

I have a realistic view of this player , never said get him out of town , don't allow him back , as some have . Never said he couldn't determine his career path .

He is not what he was presented to be by most people when the Jets returned , imo . Does that mean he has no value ? Not at all .

However for those that want to pretend the issues were not there or haven't continued , that isn't realistic. Maurice was pretty open about having him be a part of this team again , as many have wanted to post . Let's not dismiss ALL he said , issues to be determined , his commitment to the team , that isn't insignificant . There's a pattern , not a positive one , one that can change,but as Maurice said , that is something to be determined . Doubt he said that without meaning it .

Saying that , yes I would like to be wrong about his production , please , pretty please .

He's a decent secondary piece at this time . Brings PK ability , puck possesion , skating and at times applied effort. He's worth exploring and perhaps bringing back . He has upside , but as I have always said , he is the one that controls the outcome , both on and off the ice .

Let's see what happens, it would benefit the Jets if he bought in and made the team and winning the priority . I truly hope he does , as right now he has very little value to the team and that is not a good return for the 8th overall pick that should as a player that will be 24 when hockey is back in October , be a significant contributor . That doesn't help the team .

He was a kid when he was here for cripes sake and one of the few Jets forwards who had an inkling defensively. A guy with OBVIOUS talent who is willing to play on the other side of the puck at that age is a really really good sign.

The fact that he is so naturally gifted and was willing to play that defensive style shows people that he was much more of a team player than some would like to give him credit for.

 

[garret9]

As you *could* be . He certainly has not performed as a top 2 C in my estimation . He hasn't produced as you alluded he would , that we do know.

I have a realistic view of this player , never said get him out of town , don't allow him back , as some have . Never said he couldn't determine his career path .

He is not what he was presented to be by most people when the Jets returned , imo . Does that mean he has no value ? Not at all .

However for those that want to pretend the issues were not there or haven't continued , that isn't realistic. Maurice was pretty open about having him be a part of this team again , as many have wanted to post . Let's not dismiss ALL he said , issues to be determined , his commitment to the team , that isn't insignificant . There's a pattern , not a positive one , one that can change,but as Maurice said , that is something to be determined . Doubt he said that without meaning it .

Saying that , yes I would like to be wrong about his production , please , pretty please .

He's a decent secondary piece at this time . Brings PK ability , puck possesion , skating and at times applied effort. He's worth exploring and perhaps bringing back . He has upside , but as I have always said , he is the one that controls the outcome , both on and off the ice .

Let's see what happens, it would benefit the Jets if he bought in and made the team and winning the priority . I truly hope he does , as right now he has very little value to the team and that is not a good return for the 8th overall pick that should as a player that will be 24 when hockey is back in October , be a significant contributor . That doesn't help the team .

I'm talking on-ice impact only. I'm talking agnostically about the other factors. Not dismissing that they exist, but talking about one subject at a time. This is a compartmentalized conversation.

I don't have an opinion. I only state what the on ice results dictate. I also never alluded to any particular type of production...

These are the closest statistical comparables to Burmistrov's time as a Jet, who performed similarly at the same age as Burmi was, and how they performed when they were the age Burmistrov is now:

That's is what it is. It's not my chosen players. It's a program built by Manny which looks at the closest guys in scoring per minute rates, relative possession, relative scoring chances, and relative goal differentials. Some guys are closer to Burmistrov in scoring, while others are closer to Burmistrov in facilitating out scoring.

So players who performed like Burmistrov back then, very often are 2nd line calibre players at the age Burmistrov is. So it is very reasonable, although not certain, that Burmi is legit 2nd liner.
It's one thing to say you think Burmistrov will be X. It's another thing to say Burmistrov will be X.

What happens, who knows. But what happened on the ice, is what happened on the ice.

This is not me making him out to be more than he was, or overvaluing him. This is straight up the results Burmistrov garnered.

 

[jetkarma*]

He was a kid when he was here for cripes sake and one of the few Jets forwards who had an inkling defensively. A guy with OBVIOUS talent who is willing to play on the other side of the puck at that age is a really really good sign.

The fact that he is so naturally gifted and was willing to play that defensive style shows people that he was much more of a team player than some would like to give him credit for.

You obviously are a fan of his , as is Garret , which is not only allowed but more than fine . Cheer all you want , think he is better than Mark Scheifele if you like , it's just your position and how you want to hold a player's worth in your estimation.

He did not produce as some indicated he would and that's a fact . Doesn't mean he can't improve that nor does it mean he can't bring other positives to the team. He did bring some to be sure before.

As I am sure you know and would agree to , there are lots of aspects to being a team player . Playing defensive hockey doesn't make you a strong team player , you know that I presume . You can believe that Burmistrov was an excellent team mate and that he has continued to be so . It doesn't change the fact that there were issues here and have continued subsequently . Can he change that? Yes , as the coach of this team just said , there is an issue they need to see about re his commitment to the team . That's pretty direct . That's not from Noel or the coach in Russia that Burmistrov had issues with . That was said in a very soft way imo but also directly.

That's about as strong a comment as needed from the team to dispell the notion there were not concerns before , the Jets are not airing dirty laundry out in public . You can of course dismiss that if you like .

It's up to him , no one from the team has closed the door, despite what some may think I haven't and never have said that . There has to be the right buy in for me and as we just heard for the team as well . That is only on one person . He has a second opportunity available , as he should have , there are expectations though , also as it should be imo .

 

[garret9]

As you can see with the list above, there is a very large spread of talent. Some better than I ever expect Burmi to be or could be (Tavares obvs), and some worse.

In the end the average is pretty reasonable:

We get 1.77 points per sixty. That's not an impressive scoring, but elite 3rd line or average 2nd line scoring.
As also expected, we get elite two-way numbers.

So the average player who was like Burmi as he was with the Jets tends to be an average 2nd line scoring, elite possession, player when he is 23.

He could be better, he could be worse.
If I had to bet, I'd probably say a tiny bit worse. I'd probably bet on dropping the p/60 to 1.55-1.65. But that's just gutalytics. This line only is the only me giving an opinion.

 

[garret9]

You obviously are a fan of his , as is Garret , which is not only allowed but more than fine . .

This is the funny bit. I'm not.

I don't care about Burmi as a person or a player, at all honestly.

I have about 20 player memorabilia now (shirts, jerseys, etc), and not one is a Burmi thing.

My actual picture in here is a joke about that misperception.
People also tend to think that about Kane with me often too. I didn't really like Kane at all, as a fan. It's kinda funny.
My favourite "fan" player is probably Wheeler. I rarely write about Wheeler because he's rarely falsely valued. He's also not the greatest fancystat player.

It's actually purely objective and result orientated.

I talk a lot about Burmi because he represents what us analytical types have been saying for a long while --and slowly the NHL is learning--:
1) Players who improve team shot differentials improve a team's chance at winning more than the common perception believes them to, and that perception bleeds into many hockey managements.
2) Because they improve wins more than most notice or value, they are undervalued in both trade and free agent markets, this means that accumulating these players is a cheaper way to improve depth.

That's it.

Burmi's not great. Burmi's not even special. Burmi is just undervalued.

You can be a 3 win player, but if you are valued as a 1 win player, you are undervalued... even if 3 wins isn't special.
(numbers here are random)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Too much puck possession? Many combinations there for Pmo to play with, but that's at the very least what I want our top 9 to look like to start with.

Burmi is a lefty C converting to wing. LW shouldn't be any problem but RW might be. Ehlers is a RW BTW.

 

[garret9]

Burmi is a lefty C converting to wing. LW shouldn't be any problem but RW might be. Ehlers is a RW BTW.

He's played both wings.

Kane-Wellwood-Burmi was a common one.
Burmi-Little-Wheeler has happened.

 

[jetkarma*]

I'm talking on-ice impact only.

I don't have an opinion. I only state what the on ice results dictate. I also never alluded to any particular type of production...


So players who performed like Burmistrov back then, very often are 2nd line calibre players at the age Burmistrov is. So it is very reasonable, although not certain, that Burmi is legit 2nd liner.
It's one thing to say you think Burmistrov will be X. It's another thing to say Burmistrov will be X.

What happens, who knows. But what happened on the ice, is what happened on the ice.

This is not me making him out to be more than he was, or overvaluing him. This is straight up the results Burmistrov garnered.

You did however allude to a type of production . You said multiple times he was a 2nd line C and scored as such . You also said he was more valuable to the Jets than Mark Scheifele , and that the Jets needed what Burmistrov offered more than what Scheifele would provide going forward . I disagreed then and do still .

I do not think at this time or at any time , that Burmistrov would be considered a plus 2C on a playoff team , I would not be content with his production to date or would be ok if that was to continue at that level .

Could he become stronger in that area ? Yes , has he ? No. Small sample sizes don't cover the fact he has not produced points strongly . Yes there are other components than scoring , but that is integral .

You also have players saying they felt he was difficult to play with and were frustrated by the lack of distribution .

No need to further this , we'll see if he comes back or not . If he does I sincerely hope he plays as well as his biggest fan hopes he does .

It's about the team , if he helps us win big , and go deep deep in the playoffs in the next few years I will be ecstatic that he returned .

 

[jetkarma*]

He's played both wings.

Kane-Wellwood-Burmi was a common one.
Burmi-Little-Wheeler has happened.

Ideally I believe his best NHL position is RW.

 

[garret9]

You did however allude to a type of production . You said multiple times he was a 2nd line C and scored as such . You also said he was more valuable to the Jets than Mark Scheifele , and that the Jets needed what Burmistrov offered more than what Scheifele would provide going forward . I disagreed then and do still .

I do not think at this time or at any time , that Burmistrov would be considered a plus 2C on a playoff team , I would not be content with his production to date or would be ok if that was to continue at that level .

Could he become stronger in that area ? Yes , has he ? No. Small sample sizes don't cover the fact he has not produced points strongly . Yes there are other components than scoring , but that is integral .

You also have players saying they felt he was difficult to play with and were frustrated by the lack of distribution .

No need to further this , we'll see if he comes back or not . If he does I sincerely hope he plays as well as his biggest fan hopes he does .

It's about the team , if he helps us win big , and go deep deep in the playoffs in the next few years I will be ecstatic that he returned .

Not at all... I don't know why after all this time you still don't get what I've been teaching

I never said Burmistrov scored like a 2C. That would go against all my research.
Fun fact, I am the guy that discovered what the true normal scoring rates are for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th line players. (approximately 2.0, 1.75, 1.5, 1.0)
Burmistrov has not scored at or above 1.75 p/60 ever... That's probably around his ceiling.

I did show how Burmistrov did pace with top 6 scoring rates when looking exclusively at his minutes away from Cormier, Stapleton, Tangradi, Slater, Thorburn, and Glass. Maybe that's what's confusing you. I'd still not say from that information that Burmi is a top six scorer. I may say it suggests there is a possibility that Burmi is a slightly better scorer than how he actually paced.

I said Burmistrov is a quality enough player to play on a second line, depending on what the other players are.



Let me expand on this... This should or at least kinda answer your misunderstanding on what I think about Burmistrov and also what I said about Burmistrov/Scheifele.

Some players are really good, complete players. They drive scoring (ex: p/60), and they drive shot metrics (ex: Corsi). Toews, Kopitar, Bergeron, Getzlaf, Crosby, as high profile examples.

Most players are not as proficient in all areas of the game, because of this you sometimes get players who may be specialized in driving one more than the other.

Some players score well, but do not drive shot metrics. Examples: Stamkos, P.Kane, Kessel, Stafford, Stapleton, Halischuk...
(this time I intentionally did players of all different levels of skill and overall impact, but still same player type)

Some players drive shot metrics, but do not score well. Examples: Williams, Zajac, Burmistrov, Brown, Lowry, Booth, Tangradi, Goc...
(again, intentionally showing players of different levels of skill and overall impact, but still same player type)

If you have a team or line with strong possession, that struggles in scoring, it is more beneficial for you to improve that scoring than it is with possession. You need someone to finish after all. A good example of this is the Marion Gaborik acquisition by the LAK. They were an elite shot metric team, but poor finishers. Gaborik improved them there.

Now, if you have the opposite, with a line or team that is decent with scoring and finishing, then it is more beneficial for you to improve that possession than it is with scoring. Scorers may score well, but they can't score if they are spending their shift chasing the puck in the defensive zone. The Scheifele-Wheeler would probably perform better with Burmistrov than with Stafford, simply because of his

My point was that a player who is a bonafide 3C/LW/RW on one team, may be a 2C/LW/RW on another team, even if the second team is a stronger team.

That is why players like Burmistrov have been legitimate top 6 players on bonafide PO teams. It's also why players like Burmistrov have been bonafide bottom 6 players.

It's why, depending on need for a team or line, a weaker overall player may be more beneficial.

I hope this helps.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He's played both wings.

Kane-Wellwood-Burmi was a common one.
Burmi-Little-Wheeler has happened.

Good. I like versatilty. Ehlers has played both sides too.

 

[Thai jet*]

New Fro

Not at all... I don't know why after all this time you still don't get what I've been teaching

I never said Burmistrov scored like a 2C. That would go against all my research.
Fun fact, I am the guy that discovered what the true normal scoring rates are for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th line players. (approximately 2.0, 1.75, 1.5, 1.0)
Burmistrov has not scored at or above 1.75 p/60 ever... That's probably around his ceiling.

I said Burmistrov is a quality enough player to play on a second line, depending on what the other players are.



Let me expand on this... This should or at least kinda answer your misunderstanding on what I think about Burmistrov and also what I said about Burmistrov/Scheifele.

Some players are really good, complete players. They drive scoring (ex: p/60), and they drive shot metrics (ex: Corsi). Toews, Kopitar, Bergeron, Getzlaf, Crosby, as high profile examples.

Most players are not as proficient in all areas of the game, because of this you sometimes get players who may be specialized in driving one more than the other.

Some players score well, but do not drive shot metrics. Examples: Stamkos, P.Kane, Kessel, Stafford, Stapleton, Halischuk...
(this time I intentionally did players of all different levels of skill and overall impact, but still same player type)

Some players drive shot metrics, but do not score well. Examples: Williams, Zajac, Burmistrov, Brown, Lowry, Booth, Tangradi, Goc...
(again, intentionally showing players of different levels of skill and overall impact, but still same player type)

If you have a team or line with strong possession, that struggles in scoring, it is more beneficial for you to improve that scoring than it is with possession. You need someone to finish after all. A good example of this is the Marion Gaborik acquisition by the LAK. They were an elite shot metric team, but poor finishers. Gaborik improved them there.

Now, if you have the opposite, with a line or team that is decent with scoring and finishing, then it is more beneficial for you to improve that possession than it is with scoring. Scorers may score well, but they can't score if they are spending their shift chasing the puck in the defensive zone.

My point was that a player who is a bonafide 3C/LW/RW on one team, may be a 2C/LW/RW on another team, even if the second team is a stronger team.

That is why players like Burmistrov have been legitimate top 6 players on bonafide PO teams. It's also why players like Burmistrov have been bonafide bottom 6 players.

It's why, depending on need for a team or line, a weaker overall player may be more beneficial.

I hope this helps.

Sounds much like the soon to be departed, for nothing in return, Fro. As for Burmi there are still those around that have not been weaned off of the Dufus Noel cool aid so apply provided by Lawless & crew. Of the 2 Burmi was by far the one who understood modern day NHL winning hockey. Time to bring him back and move on. It would be helpful if Chipman and his runt henchman apologized to the fans and players for their tragic interference in hockey operations with the hiring of Noel. Maybe then some misguided HF posters will finally figure out they were duped about some of these events. 100% on your comments Mr. G.

 

[garret9]

Sounds much like the soon to be departed, for nothing in return, Fro. As for Burmi there are still those around that have not been weaned off of the Dufus Noel cool aid so apply provided by Lawless & crew. Of the 2 Burmi was by far the one who understood modern day NHL winning hockey. Time to bring him back and move on. It would be helpful if Chipman and his runt henchman apologized to the fans and players for their tragic interference in hockey operations with the hiring of Noel. Maybe then some misguided HF posters will finally figure out they were duped about some of these events. 100% on your comments Mr. G.

Burmistrov's best case scenario next season is probably something similar to what we experienced with Frolik... although a lower shot rate. I would say a more likely scenario is a lower scoring Frolik.

I won't argue about Burmi's character, maturity, or the events that occurred in the past. That is a separate and legitimate conversation that the club should be concerned about the validity and the extent, but on a fans blog I keep it separate when discussing the true on-ice results.

 

[cbcwpg]

http://www.thecarillon.com/sports/w...e-hopeful-of-Burmistrov-return-310404141.html

Jets head coach Paul Maurice spoke about the Russian centre in a chat with the media at the NHL draft Saturday, during a week in which his return to the Jets might be inching closer.

 

[surixon]

As you can see with the list above, there is a very large spread of talent. Some better than I ever expect Burmi to be or could be (Tavares obvs), and some worse.

In the end the average is pretty reasonable:

We get 1.77 points per sixty. That's not an impressive scoring, but elite 3rd line or average 2nd line scoring.
As also expected, we get elite two-way numbers.

So the average player who was like Burmi as he was with the Jets tends to be an average 2nd line scoring, elite possession, player when he is 23.

He could be better, he could be worse.
If I had to bet, I'd probably say a tiny bit worse. I'd probably bet on dropping the p/60 to 1.55-1.65. But that's just gutalytics. This line only is the only me giving an opinion.

I do appreciate what you are trying to do with these numbers, but I find it hard to associate Burmistrov to your list. Unlike the vast majority Burmistrov left and didn't continue his development in the NHL. He went to an inferior league and had a very up and down two years their. I think projecting the average given Burmiatrov's lengthy hiatus may not prove to be accurate given that Burmistrov really doesn't fit the data set all that well.

I certainly don't expect anywhere near an ES P per 60 of 1.77 as he never came close to those metrics in the past and his up and down seasons in the KHL don't give me confidence that his offense has improved that much.

 

[garret9]

I do appreciate what you are trying to do with these numbers, but I find it hard to associate Burmistrov to your list. Unlike the vast majority Burmistrov left and didn't continue his development in the NHL. He went to an inferior league and had a very up and down two years their. I think projecting the average given Burmiatrov's lengthy hiatus may not prove to be accurate given that Burmistrov really doesn't fit the data set all that well.

I certainly don't expect anywhere near an ES P per 60 of 1.77 as he never came close to those metrics in the past and his up and down seasons in the KHL don't give me confidence that his offense has improved that much.

I keep saying this but no one gets it... but BOTH seasons of Burmi's PPG in in the KHL were better than any of his seasons in the NHL, relatively speaking...

As in even the "bad" second one was a relatively better than even his 2011-12 PPG.

And, as most evidence has shown, development has more to do with age than where a player plays.

 

[surixon]

As you can see with the list above, there is a very large spread of talent. Some better than I ever expect Burmi to be or could be (Tavares obvs), and some worse.

In the end the average is pretty reasonable:

We get 1.77 points per sixty. That's not an impressive scoring, but elite 3rd line or average 2nd line scoring.
As also expected, we get elite two-way numbers.

So the average player who was like Burmi as he was with the Jets tends to be an average 2nd line scoring, elite possession, player when he is 23.

He could be better, he could be worse.
If I had to bet, I'd probably say a tiny bit worse. I'd probably bet on dropping the p/60 to 1.55-1.65. But that's just gutalytics. This line only is the only me giving an opinion.

I do appreciate what you are trying to do with these numbers, but I find it hard to associate Burmistrov to your list. Unlike the vast majority Burmistrov left and didn't continue his development in the NHL. He went to an inferior league and had a very up and down two years their. I think projecting the average given Burmiatrov's lengthy hiatus may not prove to be accurate given that Burmistrov really doesn't fit the data set all that well.

I certainly don't expect anywhere near an ES P per 60 of 1.77 as he never came close to those metrics in the past and his up and down seasons in the KHL don't give me confidence that his offense has improved that much.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I think the distinction between production and possible production needs to made here

He could produce at the NHL level but he hasn't yet.

With the way things are shaping up we could probably use him next year

 

[surixon]

I keep saying this but no one gets it... but BOTH seasons of Burmi's PPG in in the KHL were better than any of his seasons in the NHL, relatively speaking...

As in even the "bad" second one was a relatively better than even his 2011-12 PPG.

And, as most evidence has shown, development has more to do with age than where a player plays.

I completely get that he performed better offensively, but not substantially better. My point is that you are essentially extrapolating an expected value based on two years of P/60 data whereas his comps have 4 years of that same data. If you had his KHL p/60 and an established equivilancy between how that translates to the NHL I would have more more confidence in the projections.

 

[Whileee]

I'll let Chevy, Maurice and Ladd deal with any concerns about Burmi's approach to the game. They probably have a pretty good handle on that.

On the ice, I think Burmi would be a lot better than most of the 3rd liners we've been using the past few years. He has quickness and skill that we have been lacking in the bottom 6. I think he'll play very well on Lowry's wing.

 

[ps241]

I think the distinction between production and possible production needs to made here

He could produce at the NHL level but he hasn't yet.

With the way things are shaping up we could probably use him next year

Always the key isn't it?

Under the correct cost controlled contract and with a new coach I think the value could be there. We are heading into the "stupid season" on Canada day where buyers remorse T Shirts get handed out free to any GM who lines up to over pay.

I will be smiling ear to ear if Jets posters are complaining about what Chevy didn't do on July 1st because in my humble opinion non action on Canada day is the best action.

 

[garret9]

I completely get that he performed better offensively, but not substantially better. My point is that you are essentially extrapolating an expected value based on two years of P/60 data whereas his comps have 4 years of that same data. If you had his KHL p/60 and an established equivilancy between how that translates to the NHL I would have more more confidence in the projections.

When I used growth curve, I got around 1.7.
When I used comparables at young performed at 23, I got around 1.77.
When I used NHLEs than reduced for middle six TOI, I got around 1.6.

They are all decent similar ballparks which gives me some confidence.