News Article: Agents Poll: Dubas voted the best GM to get client a good deal from

[biotk]

I think Marner after a 94 point season was getting in the 10 million range regardless. I hoped $10,500,000 maximum. So i see $400,000 over payment and he or Matthews should have never gotten anything but a Modified no trade clause. The full NMC makes me want to pull my hair out. I really don’t know what he was thinking. Matthews and Marner basically have a 23/24 NMC and have to be extended before that kicks in. I would be surprised if either left but its quite the uncomfortable bargaining position he’s put himself in if they hit UFA.

Agreed.

I don't like the Matthews contract, but I felt the team was in a position where they could either give him what he wanted or he was going to sign an OS from Arizona. That left their only real choice being to try to convince him that if he wanted to win in Toronto taking everything he could was going to make it extremely difficult. I assumed they tried to convince him of that but failed. The 11.6 at max term would have been acceptable to me as at least that would have given Toronto another 3 years of cap growth to win at the end. People can say that the % was similar to Crosby/Malkin - but while Pittsburgh did win a cup during the last year of Malkin's ELC, they did not come close to winning another for 7 years (by which time Crosby and Malkin's % was taking up a much smaller percentage of the cap). Is this supposed be about winning or about getting the most money you can. I am fine with players demanding the most money they can get, but I refuse to hold the fantasy that them doing so doesn't dramatically lower the teams' chances of winning in a hard cap league. Also of note - neither Crosby or Malkin had front-loaded or signing bonus heavy deals. So apparently that advantage Toronto had gained them nothing - unless they trade someone - for instance I think that after his next bonus Marner will only cost an average of 7M per year for the next 5 years with a cap of just under 11M and Matthews just under 8M per year for the next 4 years.

I wouldn't have minded Marner at 10 over 6 or 10.5 on a max term deal. I don't think that he got an OS as rich as the contract he signed. I understand that they didn't want another Nylander holdout situation, and were expecting the cap to go up. But things look terrible for years now.

Imagine, same terms across the board, the Leafs managed to get Matthews for 11M, Marner for 10M, Kapanen, Kerfoot and Johnsson for 2.75M each (still 500K more than Hyman), Holl for 1.5M and Engvall for 1M. That is over 4M in savings.

 

[TOGuy14]

Kind of a funny poll when you look at the results.

Of all the RFAs the only one who is likely overpaid is Marner. I don't think any team would have an issue with the Matthews or Nylander deal, and other teams reportedly offered more for Tavares.

Meanwhile the "toughest to deal with" Lou signed to broken ass deals in Toronto (Marleau, Zaitsev) and has filled NYIs lineup with checking line players making 3M+ on long term deals.

 

[biotk]

and we need 2020 2nd and 3rd round picks for Kerfoot and AJ ... 2021/2 are pretty weak draft years so rather have prospects than those years picks

Because of the signing bonuses, I highly doubt that teams will want to trade for either before those bonuses are paid out. Bonuses might continue to be paid out on July 1, but I think that the league is going to negotiate that because those bonuses are for next season they can not be paid out before this season either is cancelled or finished. Normally the 2020 draft would occur before the bonus payments are made as well. That would mean 2021 or 2022 picks. I actually think that 2021 picks are going to be more valuable to the Leafs.

While people talk about the 202o draft being really good and deep, things are generally completely impossible to predict beyond the first round. With next season most likely going to be a complete shit show for all leagues throughout the world, Toronto should be able to gain a major advantage because of the kind of resources they can put into scouting.

 

[meefer]

To get a great deal: Ya, I can see Dubas as being a contender for that title. He didn't nail any of the big three's contracts to the benefit of the Leafs. The rest of his signings, decent imo.
Toughest to deal with: Lou? I can only imagine this is based on the number of years Lou's been at the helm. Every agent is going to have a memory of a tough negotiation.
Who do you enjoy: No walk-a-way winner. But, where Lou might have the 'toughest' sown up, I'll suggest that Dubas will move up fast. He's two years into the job and not all the agents have had clients who have benefited from Dubas's undeniable player concerns. If the agents don't get it, the players most certainly will.

Dubas has made mistakes. Any new GM does. Being in Toronto has special requirements, the most notable being a thick skin because everyone here is an expert. He's smart, he works with people, he cares about people, and he's learning as he goes along. For those who wish to say I'm drinking the koolaid, save your breath, I've heard the arguments and I disagree with the 'immediate' evaluations constituting what Dubas is and will become as a GM. Smart people learn, adapt, develop, become more proficient in what they do as their experience grows. Dubas is smart, he's going to be a good one over a long period of time.

 

[surixon]

First of all, when going by Cap % none of Toronto's deals shattered anything. With the steady rise in the cap over the past decade, the most recent signings will be the newest highest number. For example, none of Toronto's deals come close to Crosbys 17.3% second contract ($14 mill today) or Ovis 18.96% (15.5 mill today).

Now, add the rising cap to the new trend of paying your stars out of their ELCs and you get a perfect storm that exposed the Leafs but few other teams. Unfortunately for Toronto, with the stagnant cap and the uncertainty moving forward, were probably the only team exposed by the trend.

Lets take a trip down memory lane shall we. You have 2 players, Player A and Player B.

Player A - signs 7 years at 8%
72GP 15G 23A 38Pts
82GP 25G 39A 64Pts

Player B - signs 6 years at 8.76%
22GP 6G 7A 13Pts
81GP 22G 39A 61Pts
82GP 20G 41A 61Pts

Player B (Nylander) had 2 years of top line production compared to Player A (Ehlers) who had 1.

Another comparison:

Player A - signs 8 years at 13.33%

Stats:
81GP 24G 32A 56Pts
61GP 24G 33A 57Pts
Playoffs: 0

Player B signs 5 years at 14.63%

Stats:
82GP 40G 29A 69Pts
62GP 34G 29A 63Pts
38GP 23G 23A 46 Pts
Playoffs: 3

I think its fair to say Player A (Eichel) was used as a comparable for Player B (Matthews) who was significantly better at the time of the signing. You can fault Dubas for the term, but contrary to popular belief it wasnt Dubas that set the market for other contracts with either of Nylander or Matthews.

I cant justify the Marner contract

Biggest difference is term of the deals:

Ehlers 7 years vs. Nylander 6
Echiel 8 vs Mathews 5

The rule has generally been that to get more cash as a RFA you need to be willing to sign for more term.

I think the Nylander deal was ok but Mathews got both crazy cash and an incredible term for himself. Its not really comparable to Echiel given the amount of UFA years that Echiels deal bought.

Mathews got a significantly better deal then
Stamkos, who got 11.66% of the cap after having back to back 90 plus point years. He also had a Rocket trophy. That should have been the max for Mathews on a 5 year deal and was likely the best comparable out there.

11.66% on an 81.5 million cap is $9.5 million and imo a good deal for both team and player.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Because of the signing bonuses, I highly doubt that teams will want to trade for either before those bonuses are paid out. Bonuses might continue to be paid out on July 1, but I think that the league is going to negotiate that because those bonuses are for next season they can not be paid out before this season either is cancelled or finished. Normally the 2020 draft would occur before the bonus payments are made as well. That would mean 2021 or 2022 picks. I actually think that 2021 picks are going to be more valuable to the Leafs.

While people talk about the 202o draft being really good and deep, things are generally completely impossible to predict beyond the first round. With next season most likely going to be a complete shit show for all leagues throughout the world, Toronto should be able to gain a major advantage because of the kind of resources they can put into scouting.

2020 is 3 rounds deep. We have not had a draft of this ilk for quite some time. We have a 2nd rounder that's it. We need a couple more picks. Trading lower level rounds for a 2nd or 3rd will be difficult.
2021 is terrible. It is maybe 10 picks max.
2022 harder to see but most saying it is a 1st round only.

 

[biotk]

2020 is 3 rounds deep. We have not had a draft of this ilk for quite some time. We have a 2nd rounder that's it. We need a couple more picks. Trading lower level rounds for a 2nd or 3rd will be difficult.
2021 is terrible. It is maybe 10 picks max.
2022 harder to see but most saying it is a 1st round only.

I have been paying attention to the draft for 40 years so I don't really care what the "experts" say, and based on Dubas' drafting record so far I don't think that he cares either.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Glad that Doobler is winning something this year at least.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Biggest difference is term of the deals:

Ehlers 7 years vs. Nylander 6
Echiel 8 vs Mathews 5

The rule has generally been that to get more cash as a RFA you need to be willing to sign for more term.

I think the Nylander deal was ok but Mathews got both crazy cash and an incredible term for himself. Its not really comparable to Echiel given the amount of UFA years that Echiels deal bought.

Mathews got a significantly better deal then
Stamkos, who got 11.66% of the cap after having back to back 90 plus point years. He also had a Rocket trophy. That should have been the max for Mathews on a 5 year deal and was likely the best comparable out there.

11.66% on an 81.5 million cap is $9.5 million and imo a good deal for both team and player.

I really don’t like 7 and eight year deals. 5 and 6 with a modified NTC is just as good for my thinking. A full NMC on them contracts except Tavares would have been where i drew the line. I would sit the RFA player for the sake of mobility of assets. It’s a game of cap mobility and asset mobility really.

 

[Cor]

Marner - too much

Almost all of these were ridiculously heavy on bonuses and front-loaded and the Leafs still couldn't squeeze players into reasonable contracts.

ftfy

 

[super6646]

Lucic the worst contract in the league? Give me a break.

 

[stickty111]

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Nothing surprising here. Only da truth. But Dubie is a rookie GM in da toughest market - Toronto. So give him a little breathing room to figure out da NHL and how to negotiate. That's how I look at it. He was placed in a very very tough spot. Tavares was Shanny's project. Matty and Mitch come from lower income homes and needed to take care of their families. and Willy's dad is notorious for deal making. and Dubie is managing da Leafs which print $$$. Again this is a very difficult spot to be in for anyone let alone a rook.

I think mostly everyone gets caught up defending their version ( honestly enough too) when comments are harsh from one side or the other. Fact is that he hasn’t done a perfect job but has done a decent job when both sides of the debate is viewed fairly. There is no agenda or narrative only opinions.
We all know the great and the terrible perceived moves hopefully. This is also a unique build process he has endeavoured to prove correct. The process is on the watch list by us all. I hope he pulls it off and think he can with the high end talent he was gifted. Robertson and Sandin were beautiful picks by him and Mikheyev was a nice find too. Willy’s contract proved team friendly under his decision too. He does need time and space to be creative with this. He has his roster in place without a contract you would want to bury or buy out. Thats great. Keep building it for longevity and i am good.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Marleau and Zaitsev were bad contracts from the get go. A poster to a high % questioned the final year on Marleau and the entire contract for Zaitsev. They were really not necessarily needed players.
Quit watching now, our window is shut firmly now. Guys a joke when you throw out hot takes like that. Window is firmly shut on his knowledge of the team too ha

 

[Wafflewhipper]

This poll just directed every European/ College free agent toward dubas and team,who already have a great track record with their recruiting.

 

[kb]

Lets not forget Mackinnon 6.3 and Rantanen 9.25 x 7 both of whom have out played our 11+ million C men the past three years , throw in some of the other deals Sakic has made and you can see just how bad a negotiator Dubas is but lets not reality interfere with the narrative eh !

Yes, MacKinnon signed that contract just this season! What a steal by Sakic!

Or, perhaps coming off 38 and 52 point seasons, he was....possibly overpaid? He also had 16 goals and 53 point in 82 games his first season with that contract.

Your sentence shows not only a lack of basic knowledge, but also an appalling lack of basic awareness.

This entire post is hilarious.

 

[Ciao]

It seems Dubas prefers to pay for what a younger player is likely to do more than what an older player had already done.

I think I might prefer that too.

It was never an option to let Auston Matthews hit the open market either.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I do believe that Lou would not overpay Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Tavares, but it would most likely end up with them on different teams

 

[kb]

I do believe that Lou would not overpay Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Tavares, but it would most likely end up with them on different teams

Well, his Islanders signings would suggest otherwise. Terrible signings in terms of both cap and term.

 

[stickty111]

Well, his Islanders signings would suggest otherwise. Terrible signings in terms of both cap and term.

I think what he meant even if he doesn't overpay, we lose those players to other teams.
Would you rather slighty overpay to keep them, or lose them all together?
I know what I would choose.

 

[kb]

I think what he meant even if he doesn't overpay, we lose those players to other teams.
Would you rather slighty overpay to keep them, or lose them all together?
I know what I would choose.

Ah, makes sense. Yes, that I could definitely see.

 

[Antropovsky]

Biggest difference is term of the deals:

Ehlers 7 years vs. Nylander 6
Echiel 8 vs Mathews 5

The rule has generally been that to get more cash as a RFA you need to be willing to sign for more term.

I think the Nylander deal was ok but Mathews got both crazy cash and an incredible term for himself. Its not really comparable to Echiel given the amount of UFA years that Echiels deal bought.

Mathews got a significantly better deal then
Stamkos, who got 11.66% of the cap after having back to back 90 plus point years. He also had a Rocket trophy. That should have been the max for Mathews on a 5 year deal and was likely the best comparable out there.

11.66% on an 81.5 million cap is $9.5 million and imo a good deal for both team and player.

Matthews gets whatever Matthews wants. If he wants to take a team friendly deal, so be it. If he doesn’t, he gets that too. Just as Mcdavid now and Crosby in the past.

 

[The Iceman]

The Dubas vote I get but how is Lou the toughest GM to negotiate with considering he was generous with the contracts he gave to these guys:

42 years old Marleau 3 x 6.25M
32 Zaitsev. 7x4.5 M
33 Nelson. 6x6
35 Lee. 7x7
34 Bailey. 6x5M
33 Pageau. 5x5M
32 Martin. 4x2.5M
35 Komorov. 4x3M

The worst part is the players age at contract expiry

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I have been paying attention to the draft for 40 years so I don't really care what the "experts" say, and based on Dubas' drafting record so far I don't think that he cares either.

He has done well for sure ... but remember da old saying because it is still relevant "it is hard to find a needle in a haystack" and "much easier to find an ice cube in your freezer".

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I think what he meant even if he doesn't overpay, we lose those players to other teams.
Would you rather slighty overpay to keep them, or lose them all together?
I know what I would choose.

What would you choose?