Value of: Adam Henrique at 50% retained

[StewieP19]

Then they will have no cap space to do anything at the trade deadline.

With Landeskog injury they will have around 6M in cap space.
Henrique will be a plan C or D
Anaheim will have to retain for the next year or Colorado will easy pass.
Paid 5.8M for this guy is too high at his stage of career

 

[WhatTheDuck]

With Landeskog injury they will have around 6M in cap space.
Henrique will be a plan C or D
Anaheim will have to retain for the next year or Colorado will easy pass.
Paid 5.8M for this guy is too high at his stage of career

5.8M is a perfectly reasonable cap hit for a player of his caliber. If a team is too close to the cap to fit him in, I don't see why Anaheim couldn't retain for the right return, but that doesn't mean he's overpaid.

He's a proven veteran forward, who has produced consistent top 6 numbers for a decade, with the only exception being the covid shortened year from which he's completely bounced back. Versatile enough to move between center and wing seamlessly, great in the faceoff dot and able to contribute in all situations. Pacing for 29 goals and 50 points on easily one of the worst teams in the league.

So very clearly worth 6M per in this league.

 

[Leonardo87]

If he's only going to fetch chump change at this deadline, then it makes more sense for the Ducks to just keep him. The goal isn't to give our young players absolutely nothing to play with and create as much futility as possible. They need a solid veteran leader more than another middling pick.

He either returns something of real consequence or he stays put. It's not posturing (none of us have any say in what happens) but just the reality of the situation. Not interested in trading him for the sake of a trade.

Anaheim has a top five pick, three second rounders and two thirds, with one of the deepest prospect pools in the game already. They don't need to trade their better players for more picks in that range.

Can you imagine our offense without Rico? We are already last in the league. I’m ok with the standings considering this deep draft, but was hoping they’d have more production from this group.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Can you imagine our offense without Rico? We are already last in the league. I’m ok with the standings considering this deep draft, but was hoping they’d have more production from this group.

It's not going to be good for development of our key young players if this lineup gets any worse. Not interested in making moves detrimental to the growth of players like Zegras, just to add a 5th pick in the 50-100 range of the draft

 

[John Mandalorian]

If he's only going to fetch chump change at this deadline, then it makes more sense for the Ducks to just keep him. The goal isn't to give our young players absolutely nothing to play with and create as much futility as possible. They need a solid veteran leader more than another middling pick.

He either returns something of real consequence or he stays put. It's not posturing (none of us have any say in what happens) but just the reality of the situation. Not interested in trading him for the sake of a trade.

Anaheim has a top five pick, three second rounders and two thirds, with one of the deepest prospect pools in the game already. They don't need to trade their better players for more picks in that range.

In this cap climate, you can get several veteran leaders for 2 million or less in the offseason. I'm not sure what you call chump change but it seems like you're in the "if it's not a first, it's not worth it" crowd that I was referencing. What about a 2nd? is that chump change? At least a 2nd round pick can turn into a core piece.

 

[Gliff]

With Landeskog injury they will have around 6M in cap space.
Henrique will be a plan C or D
Anaheim will have to retain for the next year or Colorado will easy pass.
Paid 5.8M for this guy is too high at his stage of career

I think Anaheim would be dump not to retain the max to maximize the return. They will need to get to the cap floor anyways so it’s not like losing his contract would actually save them money. It would just mean they have to give that money to someone in the UFA market.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

In this cap climate, you can get several veteran leaders for 2 million or less in the offseason. I'm not sure what you call chump change but it seems like you're in the "if it's not a first, it's not worth it" crowd that I was referencing. What about a 2nd? is that chump change? At least a 2nd round pick can turn into a core piece.

You are not getting good veteran top 6 players like Henrique for 2M.

A late 2nd (fair to assume only contending teams are looking at trading for Henrique) has a very low chance of ever becoming anything. Very very low odds of actually landing a core piece.

Like I said, Anaheim already has an abundance of prospects and a lots of picks in that range (if the draft was tomorrow, the Ducks would own five picks between #33 and #85 overall). They need quality on their roster and to keep a proper environment for developing young players, a lot more than they need another 50-60th overall pick with a 5% chance of becoming a decent player in five years.

It's a different story if talking about an impeding UFA like Klingberg, who was just brought in this summer for the very obvious purpose of flipping for the best return possible. Henrique has been with the team for years, well respected in the community etc and plays a big role in helping bring along key young players. Unless he comes to them and says he'd like to go to a contender, I doubt the Ducks even shop him around. When teams come calling, they should be prepared to give up something of real value, or the Ducks will happily keep him at least another year.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Yeah, I agree about being meh on a 3rd. A 2nd is fair, however. I think some of this thinking takes place in a vacuum. If you focus on age, you can see where he might come up with a 3rd as his value. But when you consider other variables taking place in the trade market, him being an alternative option to the more expensive guys drives his price up somewhat.

I didn't provide that link as a gotcha to say, that he's only worth a third. I think there are a lot of people here who default to "everything is worth a first (or it's not worth it)".

I don't think Anaheim benefits to wait a year for a player who's 32. The situation likely changes next year with the salary cap being on the verge of going up a decent amount. Teams will be less hesitant to overpay for rentals in that scenario. Henrique is perfectly positioned as a trade piece this year. When his deal ends, the salary cap will likely be going up (so he provides a bridge of cost certainty to teams valuing that). I can see the Avs being one of them. Last year, the Avs kept most/all of their acquisitions (I don't count Sturm since he was part of a trade requested by Jost).

I’ve kinda been on the 2nd + prospect wave on value(2nd + aj + Foote type deal).

3rd would be much to low, 1st I could see happen with retention, and a team that misses out on a guy like horvat.

But I choose to look at that late 2nd we get as a tradable asset to move up on draft day , and or look for a cap casualty player like avs did with Devon toews

 

[Blackjack]

It's a different story if talking about an impeding UFA like Klingberg, who was just brought in this summer for the very obvious purpose of flipping for the best return possible. Henrique has been with the team for years, well respected in the community etc and plays a big role in helping bring along key young players. Unless he comes to them and says he'd like to go to a contender, I doubt the Ducks even shop him around. When teams come calling, they should be prepared to give up something of real value, or the Ducks will happily keep him at least another year.

Just to add to this, I don’t think Anaheim is going to eat millions of real dollars on a retention just for a pick at the end of the second round.

 

[John Mandalorian]

You are not getting good veteran top 6 players like Henrique for 2M.

A late 2nd (fair to assume only contending teams are looking at trading for Henrique) has a very low chance of ever becoming anything. Very very low odds of actually landing a core piece.

Like I said, Anaheim already has an abundance of prospects and a lots of picks in that range (if the draft was tomorrow, the Ducks would own five picks between #33 and #85 overall). They need quality on their roster and to keep a proper environment for developing young players, a lot more than they need another 50-60th overall pick with a 5% chance of becoming a decent player in five years.

It's a different story if talking about an impeding UFA like Klingberg, who was just brought in this summer for the very obvious purpose of flipping for the best return possible. Henrique has been with the team for years, well respected in the community etc and plays a big role in helping bring along key young players. Unless he comes to them and says he'd like to go to a contender, I doubt the Ducks even shop him around. When teams come calling, they should be prepared to give up something of real value, or the Ducks will happily keep him at least another year.

Why does a veteran have to make 6 million to be a good leader to your young players?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Why does a veteran have to make 6 million to be a good leader to your young players?

No one said that whatsoever. It's not just about having a "veteran leader", but one who is actually a good enough player to play alongside our top young players. If a veteran is available for 2M as a UFA, they almost surely don't belong on a line with Zegras or McTavish.

The Ducks already have Henrique and know he's ideal in that role. There is no big motivation to move him unless the return is substantial. Don't need the cap space at all, really don't need the middling assets you describe. Rebuilding a team means putting young players in a position to succeed. Can't ask them to carry the team with no quality veteran help. The situation is already bad enough and possibly detrimental to their growth, removing Henrique just makes that worse.

Let's not forget the context of the thread is Henrique 50% retained. If a team is getting a 25 goal, 50 point responsible center/winger and great faceoff guy for two playoff runs at only a 2.9M cap hit, while asking the Ducks to eat over $3M to facilitate - that team is going to have to give up something the Ducks value more than having Henrique continue in a very vital role. I really doubt that something would be as inconsequential as adding a sixth draft pick in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

 

[duckpuck]

Yeah, I agree about being meh on a 3rd. A 2nd is fair, however. I think some of this thinking takes place in a vacuum. If you focus on age, you can see where he might come up with a 3rd as his value. But when you consider other variables taking place in the trade market, him being an alternative option to the more expensive guys drives his price up somewhat.

I didn't provide that link as a gotcha to say, that he's only worth a third. I think there are a lot of people here who default to "everything is worth a first (or it's not worth it)".

I don't think Anaheim benefits to wait a year for a player who's 32. The situation likely changes next year with the salary cap being on the verge of going up a decent amount. Teams will be less hesitant to overpay for rentals in that scenario. Henrique is perfectly positioned as a trade piece this year. When his deal ends, the salary cap will likely be going up (so he provides a bridge of cost certainty to teams valuing that). I can see the Avs being one of them. Last year, the Avs kept most/all of their acquisitions (I don't count Sturm since he was part of a trade requested by Jost).

Article is old and kind of crap. W/o retention, Henrique might be worth only a third (probably a 2nd IMO). But that's not been the discussion here.

If the market return return for Henrique is truly a third, then the Ducks certainly don't lose by waiting a year and retaining one of their top players (low bar there) who is a good mentor.

The ducks have to ice a team. It should have a few veterans like Henrique. Lots of benefits to keeping him. What you call "posturing" is basically duck's fans saying we'd like to keep him rather than dumping him for a second/third round pick that doesn't have much value - less value than Henrique on the ice.

In this cap climate, you can get several veteran leaders for 2 million or less in the offseason. I'm not sure what you call chump change but it seems like you're in the "if it's not a first, it's not worth it" crowd that I was referencing. What about a 2nd? is that chump change? At least a 2nd round pick can turn into a core piece.

If you wait to the offseason, you'll have more options. Not sure you get a player like Henrique for $2M. The ducks had to pay $3.6M for Vatrano who I think is an inferior player to Henrique. But you never know - there are always vets (older than Henrique) who are looking for a cup run (e.g., Corey Perry in Tampa).

Of course, waiting to the offseason doesn't help the Avs (or any other team) for this playoff run. Much of Henriques value is getting him for 2 playoff runs. Prices are higher at the deadline.

 

[lwvs84]

Outside of rentals/expiring contracts, the Ducks shouldn't move any top 6/top4 players just for the sake of moving them and getting "depth assets" back. Sure a 2nd round pick has value and you have a shot at getting an NHL player out of it, but chances are it's going to be a late 2nd (bottom 10 of the round) and the players you'll likely get there are 3rd/4th liners or 3rd pair D. The Ducks have plenty of that in the system, they need top 6/4 (specifically top line or pair) talent. I know, everyone does... but the prospect pool is loaded with depth. A late 1st doesn't guarantee you anything, but there is a higher chance of a complimentary top 6 player there.

Between last season and this season, Henrique is putting up a 0.67 ppg pace. His contract is for 1.5 more years (half of this year and next) so age isn't a concern, especially since he's not really slowing down and his game isn't based on being overly physical, so his decline shouldn't be as sharp. Henrique at 50% should be worth the equivalent of a late 1st at least, taking back a cap dump the Ducks should be able to get a 1st+ for him. Otherwise it doesn't make sense to move him until next year's deadline. He's both a leader and producing, so he still has value to the team as a mentor for some of the kids.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think Anaheim would be dump not to retain the max to maximize the return. They will need to get to the cap floor anyways so it’s not like losing his contract would actually save them money. It would just mean they have to give that money to someone in the UFA market.

Not every team is willing to spend millions to get one meh draft pick.

If they retain 1-3m on Henrique they’re also also paying his replacement on the roster, so they aren’t saving much money, if any.

They don’t need another open forward slot, they have plenty of those for young forwards.

I doubt they want to get worse and they likely hoped to a bit better than this, just for their players’ psyches.

I know everyone thinks this teams are thrilled to be the worst in the NHL but if they want to re-sign Terry they should probably keep the guy he and Zegras plays with all the time.

I also don’t see how they get a comparable center on a very short deal who could perform like this next season.

I do believe the Ducks would definitely consider a trade if some was willing to pony up a noticeably nicer return than they theoretically could get for him at the 2023 TDL. Most of the offers are underwhelming and not that.

 

[bsu]

Some of the posts in this thread are straight ridiculous.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Some of the posts in this thread are straight ridiculous.

"Henrique wouldn't be a top 9 player on a good team" takes the cake.

 

[Leonardo87]

Rico on pace for 30 goals on the worst offensive team in the league. So yeah…

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Rico on pace for 30 goals on the worst offensive team in the league. So yeah…

Might even be third line material some day if he keeps that up

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Might even be third line material some day if he keeps that up

To be fair it’s mostly just 1 Buffalo fan that has a history of being upset in duck threads because duck fans wouldn’t say eichel was worth zegras drysdale and 3rd overall pick

 

[WhatTheDuck]

To be fair it’s mostly just 1 Buffalo fan that has a history of being upset in duck threads because duck fans wouldn’t say eichel was worth zegras drysdale and 3rd overall pick

Well yeah, my comment was aimed directly at said poster's ridiculous post in this thread.

That particular poster's absurdly low opinion of Henrique pre dates the Eichel stuff though, was calling Rico an overpaid 3rd liner back when he first signed this contract.

 

[Leonardo87]

I just want to keep Rico at this point, maybe look at it next TDL. He’s been very good for Zegras, Terry, and McTavish and that is more important than a late 1st round pick or 2nd round pick anyway.

 

[Homesick]

I just want to keep Rico at this point, maybe look at it next TDL. He’s been very good for Zegras, Terry, and McTavish and that is more important than a late 1st round pick or 2nd round pick anyway.

2024 unprotected 1st, Puljujarvi or Foegele for AH @50%

 

[All Mighty]

Assuming the Ducks are willing to retain/trade Henrique, I think he would be a solid backup plan for teams that missed out on Horvat, especially because he isn't just a rental.

 

[cheesymc]

I’m still leaning Hurricanes will make the move for Rico over overpaying for ROR, or other big name like Toews.

Kotkaniemi is a risk for the Canes long term plan if he can’t be productive on a veteran lineup like Lafrieniere is having issues with in NY. I think swapping him for Rico makes a lot of sense as they are in a win now mode and it would be worth it if they can get past the hump or become another Predators and Jets missing their window. Kotkaniemi would be able to get the minutes needed to develop.

I think the Ducks should sweeten the offer and take a 50% to give them two good shots since they won’t be spending anytime soon. Maybe even add some free depth guys like Grant or Stolarz at 50% retained too. But I would think that a decent prospect like Nikishin (who won’t be coming over for at least 2 more years) should be offered for the additional valuable cap space and flexibility.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I’m still leaning Hurricanes will make the move for Rico over overpaying for ROR, or other big name like Toews.

Kotkaniemi is a risk for the Canes long term plan if he can’t be productive on a veteran lineup like Lafrieniere is having issues with in NY. I think swapping him for Rico makes a lot of sense as they are in a win now mode and it would be worth it if they can get past the hump or become another Predators and Jets missing their window. Kotkaniemi would be able to get the minutes needed to develop.

I think the Ducks should sweeten the offer and take a 50% to give them two good shots since they won’t be spending anytime soon. Maybe even add some free depth guys like Grant or Stolarz at 50% retained too. But I would think that a decent prospect like Nikishin (who won’t be coming over for at least 2 more years) should be offered for the additional valuable cap space and flexibility.

Based on the various, “it would take an overpay to be worth it” type comments from Ducks fans in this thread, are you even making out entertaining this idea if you’re Carolina? I ask that without knowing specifically what that means to various people making comments.