Obviously we have no idea what else the team is going to do in free agency, the draft, etc this year, besides the obvious (Kakko).
But I would say depending on what they do, they could get back to a bubble playoff team faster than you appear to be assuming.
We frankly look for certain things from Kakko, but cannot count on them. What is his first few years look like Barkov's?
If we take the team we had for the majority of 2018-19, which was not a playoff team, but was more like 8th-to-10th worst, for the 2019-20 season you are subtracting the following:
- Hayes
- Zuccarello
- Kreider (potentially)
- Fred Claesson (probably)
And you are adding impacts from:
+ Kaapo Kakko (probably)
+ Brendan Lemieux (full season)
+ Artemi Panarin (potentially)
+ Adam Fox (probably at least 30 games)
+ Libor Hajek
(Anything you get from Shestyorkin and Kravtsov is probably negligible as they probably both are still developing and may be in the minors or backing up most of the season).
If you are counting on Kakko replacing the production of Hayes, you may well be setting yourself up for disappointment. The odds are against it. Panarin is NOT here and solid chances that he WILL NOT be here. And if he is, he now has to play with less of a supporting cast. Fox, Hajek? Can they get in 10 games of NHL experience before we state that you getting an impact from them? Love Lemieux, and he could well be a force in the middle two lines, but if he nets 20 goals next year, I will jump for joy.
And you are probably getting measurable if not outright substantial improvement from:
Chytil
Andersson
Howden
DeAngelo
I mean, I just don't think you can get much worse from Shattenkirk and Smith. Staal was more steady last year than he has been in a while, so he could see a downswing, but I think that's made up for by other players.
Sorry, hate to be Debbie Downer here, but while we all hope that Chytil, Andersson & Howden take steps forward, they are just as likely as not to. But let's say that they do, what is "substantial" impact? I would say that the odds of 45-50 goals between the three of them is not great. Which does not mean that they will not improve. But you need to remember how young they are.
And frankly, if the team is better, I think Henrik is better.
Henke's abilities decline with age. He is a year older. For him to be better, the defense would need to be materially better. And while Staal, Smith and Shattenkirk are taking regular shifts, the odds are against that.
So I think, personally, this team, if you add Panarin, even if you subtract Kreider, is probably better than last year.
I think you are describing a lottery team for all of the reasons that I outline.
Look, it's not like I do not want them to do great, but it seems you are counting on playing several hands of cards and getting 4 aces in each one. Just not realistic. Embrace the suck for one more year. The turnaround commences in 2020-2021.