Confirmed with Link: Adam Fox for 2019 2nd (NYR), 2020 3rd (cond.)

[TheTakedown]

Being a #5 guy is great value for an UDFA

As long as he is played like a #5... When you have Shattenkirk and Smith back there for the next 2 years, the choice is obvious

 

[TheTakedown]

Trouba is a guy that if he was on the FA market for free at 26 years old next year, and I had a glaring need at top pairing RD, and I could afford it, I'd throw a lot of money at.

But we aren't competing next year, really. And we don't know what the state of our RD will look like in a year. We have DeAngelo. We now have Fox. We have Pionk. We have Shattenkirk still. We have Lundkvist and others in the pipeline. We also have a ton of left side Ds.... Lindgren, Skjei, Miller, Rykov, Hajek, etc. Not all will pan out, but we like them all currently.

I'm just not in a rush to tie up 7 or 8 million for 6 years on Trouba when the guys we have coming up may be close to as good.

I get that our right side Ds are all "same-ish" in that they are smaller, puck moving types for whom actually defending isn't their specialty, but is it impossible that one of the LDs with size can't move to the right side? Is it impossible that it works if we have a right side of Fox-DeAngelo-Lundkvist with Miller-Hajek-Lindgren/Rykov on the left side?

Panarin is different, IMO.

I'll find space for a 90 point forward any day of the week. Not sure Trouba is quite that special.

Fox gives you another placeholder so that you can sign Trouba as a UFA next offseason. That's when this team will really start to come into its own

 

[n8]

If Zegras lasts into the teens, he's probably not a top line center or else some GM would grab him way before #13. The only way you grab a 1C in the teens is if you draft someone deeply flawed (one trick pony, midget, injured) and everything eventually comes together. That's why they are known as high risk, high return prospects.

Someone who doesn't have awful flaws (e.g., Zegras) either gets drafted much earlier or if he lasts into teens, it's because GMs believe he tops out as an ok second liner as his high ceiling.

Or if GMs have irrational hard-ons for other players. I mean all jokes aside, how did Getzlaf fall so much?

 

[TGWL]

Nobody is denying that. I just personally felt considering he really wanted to be here and wasn't going to Carolina we could of held out for tampa's pick (58th overall).

On the bright side, our organization continued to do a good job in building a relationship. We probably could have held out a bit and gotten him for less, but we decided to meet halfway. More than what we wanted to pay, less than what they originally wanted.

If we waited a year, there's a possibility Fox decides to test the market rather than just agreeing to play for his favorite team. His best friends - Bracco, Milano, Keller and Mcavoy. It's possible he's convinced to join one of those teams by a friend should the choice end up with him next year. Would be nice if we didn't have to offer 2 potential 2nds and had a better idea of what our defense would be, but I think it was a good GM building relationship here. Their fans can be made at the Rangers for getting "all the potential College FA" (which we don't), but they should at least be happy we didn't attempt to short change them.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Gorton said it himself. A lot can happen in a year. If you have a shot at bringing in a kid with this kind of talent you do it asap in my opinion. The time he will have to assert himself in the organization and go through the prospects and training camps with the rest of the Kravstovs and Kakko's will be invaluable down the road.

 

[pblawr]

Or sometimes, players drop. Kopitar was taken 11th. Bergeron 45th. Kuznetsov 26th. Getzlaf 19th. Larkin was 15th. Barzal 16th. There are others. Sometimes players slide. That's the way it happens.

Maybe this belongs on the draft thread, but Kopitar struggled in a pro league, Bergeron played an unspectacular style and was in the deepest draft in the last 20+ years, Kuznetsov was drafted when there was a lot of uncertainty about Russians coming over, Getzlaf was slow and in the same draft class as Bergeron, Dylan Larkin's stats in the USNTDP weren't great, and Barzal was small and there were questions if he could physically handle the NHL. All those kind of guys had some kind of drawback that created a question about their ability to translate to the NHL and gave scouts a reason to pass on them. It seems self-evident to me that NHL scouts aren't to pass on a guy who turns into a star player unless there's some reason to think that either he won't become a star or someone else will be better.

For whatever it's worth, I think there are some factors like that with Zegras too. While he is a brilliantly creative playmaker and passer, he's the same weight as Caufield and makes a lot of unnecessarily fancy plays that don't work out. So I could understand NHL scouts questioning how well his style would translate to the NHL, similar to the guys above.

One thing I would add is that all the guys you listed are late birthdays / younger players. Kopitar was August, Bergeron was July, Kuznetsov was May, Getzlaf was May, Larkin was July, and Barzal was May. If you go back and look at guys taken later in the draft who turned into stars, a very high number of them are late birthdays (you can add Aho, Pasta, Kucherov, etc). In general, that makes sense to me that because I think people do a poor job adjusting for age when they watch players (it's not visible) and that extra year of development can make a huge difference. A worse, but younger, player can often be a better prospect, but that directly contradicts what scouts see with their eyes. Some notable late birthdays for me this year (in no particular order) are Broberg, Robertson, Tomasino, Kolyachonok, Saarela, Suzuki, Brink, Kaliyev, and Firstov.

 

[broadwayblue]

IMO, they bottom out next year. They start to rise in 2021-2022. If things go right, several years later they can be true Cup contenders. Just how I view it realistically.

Could be, although I'm not sure we didn't bottom out this year. Just not sure I see us finishing in the bottom 5.

 

[mas0764]

Not sure what you mean by not competing TB. Not competing for a cup? or not competing for a playoff spot?

IMO with a couple moves we could do the latter. As for competing for the cup no one was expecting Carolina or Columbus to be competing for a Cup this year either but both are ahead in their second round series and could be the two Eastern teams in the conference finals and the East is considered stronger than the West. Teams can turn around fairly quickly with the right moves but we're not likely to get there with just a bunch of kids.

I get that people don't like $11 mil per talk but Panarin at that number is IMO a better deal than Kreider is at $7. What's more the cap ceiling will no doubt continue to rise along with the cap floor over the course of that contract and with bigger contracts coming off our books before players with ELC's even get to their second contracts. There's this idea that we can wait until those contracts come off before we replace them with similar contracts but what we're looking at in 20-22 as far as a free agent market isn't all that fantastic.

Yeah, I kinda think we actually probably should invest in a difference making free agent, if it's the right one who can last 4-5-6 years, before we get too far along in this rebuild. Someone who is better than Kreider, but will also be around to take pressure off the kids, and who will still be valuable when we are ready to compete. By locking in a guy now, at 2019 prices, he will look relatively valuable by 2022 standards, potentially. It could be better than adding the impact free agent in 2022 when the prices are 50% higher and you are that much closer to needing the cap room to re-sign your own. Get the high payments out of the way now when we have the cap room in spades.

Of course, it also sounds like I'm describing Trouba. An expensive guy now, who will help the young D grow, and he's young enough to still be a quality player once our kids are grown up, he can slide down to the second or third pair and still be valuable. What I don't like about Trouba is that I'm not sure he's truly elite and I don't want to have to give up assets besides money to get him.

Panarin at 82 and 87 points the last 2 seasons, counts as elite in my book. I'd open up the vault. He's not really riding the coattails of any true superstar there in Columbus... he IS the superstar. Playing with Zibanejad probably allows him to put up similar points.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

This is what I was talking about going into the offseason... stockpiling picks is great but you need to hit on them and you need to get top quality talent not just quantity. You made some moves to get some top prospects, albeit not home run prospects. Hitting on Chytil and Miller was huge. Hitting on Kravstov was even bigger. Getting to 2nd overall was absolutely enormous for the Rangers. This draft is all about getting quality now. Acquiring a proven talent who you know would go top 10 in this draft and can play next season is a no-brainer at this point in the rebuild, even if it came at a steep cost. If you can find a way to move up even higher with the assets you have, do it to get another home-run prospect.

 

[NYRangers0723]

On the bright side, our organization continued to do a good job in building a relationship. We probably could have held out a bit and gotten him for less, but we decided to meet halfway. More than what we wanted to pay, less than what they originally wanted.

If we waited a year, there's a possibility Fox decides to test the market rather than just agreeing to play for his favorite team. His best friends - Bracco, Milano, Keller and Mcavoy. It's possible he's convinced to join one of those teams by a friend should the choice end up with him next year. Would be nice if we didn't have to offer 2 potential 2nds and had a better idea of what our defense would be, but I think it was a good GM building relationship here. Their fans can be made at the Rangers for getting "all the potential College FA" (which we don't), but they should at least be happy we didn't attempt to short change them.

I still don't see it. I feel Carolina would of accepted 58th overall and the same conditions to the 2020 pick.

 

[Levitate]

Could be, although I'm not sure we didn't bottom out this year. Just not sure I see us finishing in the bottom 5.

maybe depends on free agency but the Rangers lost a lot of talent with Hayes and Zucc being traded and I don't think Kakko is enough to replace that

I think there's going to be a big learning curve for a lot of players this year but I'm looking at 2020 as the season where things really start moving forward

 

[Thirty One]

I still don't see it. I feel Carolina would of accepted 58th overall and the same conditions to the 2020 pick.

Well, Jeff Gorton, who was a lot closer to the negotiations, didn't.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Quinn is going to LOVE this kid. Every coach has it's favorites and for Quinn it's NCAA guys, he'll get his ice time for sure.

 

[mas0764]

IMO, they bottom out next year. They start to rise in 2021-2022. If things go right, several years later they can be true Cup contenders. Just how I view it realistically.

I think the Rangers will not be as bad as everyone thinks this coming year, and they will be better before people expect as well.

We are adding a ton of talent to the roster this year. Yes, we are down a couple second line talents that we had most of all last year (Hayes and Zuccarello), but I feel like adding, say, Kakko, Fox and Panarin, or Kakko, Fox and Trouba, or Kakko, Fox, Zegras, and Panarin, or whatever, we kinda gain more than we've lost, both in terms of raw talent AND expected production, plus the improvement of all the kids.

 

[NYRangers0723]

Well, Jeff Gorton, who was a lot closer to the negotiations, didn't.

ok...….

 

[True Blue]

Could be, although I'm not sure we didn't bottom out this year. Just not sure I see us finishing in the bottom 5.

Take this team, with no Hayes or Zucc for an entire year, coupled with another year of depreciation on Staal, Shattenkirk, Smith, another year of age on Henke......This is a lottery team. And that is not even taking the possibility of Kreider being traded into consideration.

 

[True Blue]

Maybe this belongs on the draft thread, but Kopitar struggled in a pro league, Bergeron played an unspectacular style and was in the deepest draft in the last 20+ years, Kuznetsov was drafted when there was a lot of uncertainty about Russians coming over, Getzlaf was slow and in the same draft class as Bergeron, Dylan Larkin's stats in the USNTDP weren't great, and Barzal was small and there were questions if he could physically handle the NHL. All those kind of guys had some kind of drawback that created a question about their ability to translate to the NHL and gave scouts a reason to pass on them. It seems self-evident to me that NHL scouts aren't to pass on a guy who turns into a star player unless there's some reason to think that either he won't become a star or someone else will be better.

The point that I was rebutting was that top line centers never make it to the 'teens for picks unless they are flawed. I am not disputing the struggles that some of the players may have had, but it does not change the fact that their projection was top line centers and they made it to the teens for draft picks.

 

[mas0764]

Fox gives you another placeholder so that you can sign Trouba as a UFA next offseason. That's when this team will really start to come into its own

And on that note, who says Lundqvist can't play till he's 42 and make another couple Cup runs with our re-loaded juggernaut???

 

[Off Sides]

Maybe this belongs on the draft thread, but Kopitar struggled in a pro league, Bergeron played an unspectacular style and was in the deepest draft in the last 20+ years, Kuznetsov was drafted when there was a lot of uncertainty about Russians coming over, Getzlaf was slow and in the same draft class as Bergeron, Dylan Larkin's stats in the USNTDP weren't great, and Barzal was small and there were questions if he could physically handle the NHL. All those kind of guys had some kind of drawback that created a question about their ability to translate to the NHL and gave scouts a reason to pass on them. It seems self-evident to me that NHL scouts aren't to pass on a guy who turns into a star player unless there's some reason to think that either he won't become a star or someone else will be better.

For whatever it's worth, I think there are some factors like that with Zegras too. While he is a brilliantly creative playmaker and passer, he's the same weight as Caufield and makes a lot of unnecessarily fancy plays that don't work out. So I could understand NHL scouts questioning how well his style would translate to the NHL, similar to the guys above.

One thing I would add is that all the guys you listed are late birthdays / younger players. Kopitar was August, Bergeron was July, Kuznetsov was May, Getzlaf was May, Larkin was July, and Barzal was May. If you go back and look at guys taken later in the draft who turned into stars, a very high number of them are late birthdays (you can add Aho, Pasta, Kucherov, etc). In general, that makes sense to me that because I think people do a poor job adjusting for age when they watch players (it's not visible) and that extra year of development can make a huge difference. A worse, but younger, player can often be a better prospect, but that directly contradicts what scouts see with their eyes. Some notable late birthdays for me this year (in no particular order) are Broberg, Robertson, Tomasino, Kolyachonok, Saarela, Suzuki, Brink, Kaliyev, and Firstov.

I like that you brought a different and interesting perspective in that post, and some of those late B-day may turn out to be some of the steals of this draft.

I agree about why scouts sometimes pass on players, yet to me at least this draft seems to have several center prospects who may not be elite, or franchise or whatever term one wants to use, however there seems to be like 6 or 7 centers this draft past Hughes who have the ceilings of top line. Most will likely settle in more to a ceiling of 2nd or even 3rd line or bust, yet that also is true for most centers who are selected past the 2nd or 3rd center selected in most drafts. Having 5-6, maybe more such center prospects in one draft seems like a high number. I'd put Zegras among them, actually Newhook too, not expecting elite or whichever term, more so prospects who seem like they have top line ceiling yet will likely settle a line lower. Should some of those 6-7 or so centers fall because teams take defenders, wings or even a goalie ahead of them, I think that makes for interesting possible scenarios.

 

[True Blue]

I think the Rangers will not be as bad as everyone thinks this coming year, and they will be better before people expect as well.

We are adding a ton of talent to the roster this year. Yes, we are down a couple second line talents that we had most of all last year (Hayes and Zuccarello), but I feel like adding, say, Kakko, Fox and Panarin, or Kakko, Fox and Trouba, or Kakko, Fox, Zegras, and Panarin, or whatever, we kinda gain more than we've lost, both in terms of raw talent AND expected production, plus the improvement of all the kids.

How did the Rangers perform after they lost Hayes and Zucc? How is half of the defense (Staal, Shattenkirk, Smith) going to perform a year later?

Add Panarin and subtract Kreider to this exact team, and this still a bottom 5 team. Actually, even with Kreider and Panarin, it is a bottom 5 team. The chances of Zegras (he is not here) stepping in and playing at the NHL level next year is small, let alone playing and replacing the production of Hayes.

IMO, I think that Panarin and Trouba are just fan projections. And bringing in Trouba, a player who has had much trouble staying on the ice and giving him a worse supporting cast that he had in Winnipeg, is it's own kettle of fish.

 

[haohmaru]

Take this team, with no Hayes or Zucc for an entire year, coupled with another year of depreciation on Staal, Shattenkirk, Smith, another year of age on Henke......This is a lottery team. And that is not even taking the possibility of Kreider being traded into consideration.

Add Kakko, Panarin, Fox, Kravstov, Shesty, possibly other UFA's, and improving Buch, Skjei, ADA, Shattenkirk, Georgiev, etc... and you've got hope for a non lottery team.

Let's see what we've got before making 2019-20 season predictions, eh?

 

[Gardner McKay]

No. Because Gordie Clark has the worst track record in the league when it comes to 2nd round picks.

I'd rather Gordie have a good track record with 1st round picks than 2nd round picks...

 

[Thirty One]

Carolina wants to draft players who play college in the future. They wouldn't want to send a message that those players can tell them they're not going to sign, give them one team they will sign with, and they'll take whatever pittance that team will allow for.

 

[FJB]

No clue who he is and it's a 30 page thread lol

 

[mas0764]

maybe depends on free agency but the Rangers lost a lot of talent with Hayes and Zucc being traded and I don't think Kakko is enough to replace that

I think there's going to be a big learning curve for a lot of players this year but I'm looking at 2020 as the season where things really start moving forward

I mean.... if Kakko can't replace Zucc relatively quickly then he's maybe not the star we are hoping for. In his last full year with us he had 53 points. This year he contributed 37 to our tanking effort.

I kinda expect Kakko to be a 40 point player like.... immediately. Hopefully more than that. No?