How did the Rangers perform after they lost Hayes and Zucc? How is half of the defense (Staal, Shattenkirk, Smith) going to perform a year later?
Add Panarin and subtract Kreider to this exact team, and this still a bottom 5 team. Actually, even with Kreider and Panarin, it is a bottom 5 team. The chances of Zegras (he is not here) stepping in and playing at the NHL level next year is small, let alone playing and replacing the production of Hayes.
IMO, I think that Panarin and Trouba are just fan projections. And bringing in Trouba, a player who has had much trouble staying on the ice and giving him a worse supporting cast that he had in Winnipeg, is it's own kettle of fish.
Obviously we have no idea what else the team is going to do in free agency, the draft, etc this year, besides the obvious (Kakko).
But I would say depending on what they do, they could get back to a bubble playoff team faster than you appear to be assuming.
If we take the team we had for the majority of 2018-19, which was not a playoff team, but was more like 8th-to-10th worst, for the 2019-20 season you are subtracting the following:
- Hayes
- Zuccarello
- Kreider (potentially)
- Fred Claesson (probably)
And you are adding impacts from:
+ Kaapo Kakko (probably)
+ Brendan Lemieux (full season)
+ Artemi Panarin (potentially)
+ Adam Fox (probably at least 30 games)
+ Libor Hajek
(Anything you get from Shestyorkin and Kravtsov is probably negligible as they probably both are still developing and may be in the minors or backing up most of the season).
And you are probably getting measurable if not outright substantial improvement from:
Chytil
Andersson
Howden
DeAngelo
I mean, I just don't think you can get much worse from Shattenkirk and Smith. Staal was more steady last year than he has been in a while, so he could see a downswing, but I think that's made up for by other players.
And frankly, if the team is better, I think Henrik is better.
So I think, personally, this team, if you add Panarin, even if you subtract Kreider, is probably better than last year.