Confirmed with Link: Adam Fox for 2019 2nd (NYR), 2020 3rd (cond.)

[egelband]

At Harvard, he's going to stagnate and where we might have gotten a Ryan Ellis caliber of player, we end up with a Mike Mottau instead.

Like, he'd just fall to pieces were he to stay another year at school? I don't think that would happen. He might develop/adjust quicker with the Rangers, sure. But 'delaying' is not 'destroying'.

 

[eco's bones]

So what you're saying is that we need to draft Moritz with the Jets pick?

I wouldn't be against drafting Moritz depending on who is left on the board but that's not what I'm saying because Moritz is not going to be playing for our team next year and maybe the year after that. We need someone on our right side who can actually defend pretty well and has a little more size than the likes of Shattenkirk, Pionk, DeAngelo and Fox. Which one of these guys are going to get the defensive assignments and shut down role?--because none of them are up to those kinds of tasks.....and Moritz isn't ready for it either.

In any case now that Fox has come on board I would be trying to move Shattenkirk and maybe Pionk or maybe both.

 

[haohmaru]

I don't have a problem with this deal - Fox had a point less than Makar last year and Makar jumped into the lineup as a rookie in the playoffs and looks like he belongs out there. Of course, I think Makar is a step above Fox but this gets him into the Rangers fold 17-18 months ahead of where he'd be in free agency and a lot can happen in that timeframe. Either he's here, in training camp competing for a spot and maybe playing next season or you run the risk that he goes all the way to free agency/bidding war or gets hurt in Harvard. We've got enough picks moving forward that this doesn't hurt all that much and the upside is more competition for the starters on D going into next season. Not upset with this at all.

 

[Claxton]

Some interesting trade possibilities now.

Trading Shattenkirk@50% retention?

Packaging Kreider+Pionk+Winnipeg 1st for Trouba?

Sign Panarin to replace Kreider?

 

[Edge]

I think at that point it makes more sense to retain Kreider through the season and if he has a reasonably productive year you get better value/return trading him at/near the trade deadline than you do including him in a package with a 1st rounder that won't be too many slots behind the one you're trading for...

My speculation is that if the Rangers trade Kreider for a mid-first, they're goal is to be that much closer to where they want to move.

So let's say they land the 14th pick; I don't think that's the final goal. I think the interest is likely to be getting to 9, 10 or 12.

If you figure the range for moving up is usually between 2-5 slots, that puts them where they supposedly want to be.

That would be harder to do from the Jets pick. Best case scenario is 18, and even in that scenario 5 picks "only" gets you to 13.

 

[Edge]

I guess I'm a little confused as well.

There's push back because the Rangers traded two picks for a guy they could potentially have a year from now.

But at the same time, we're talking about packaging some combination of our best trade asset, picks and/or prospects to get a guy who is going to be available a year from now.

I get that Trouba is more established, but the latter has a much higher price point.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

My knee-jerk reaction was that I did not like this trade.

I think our 2nd this year could have been used as more fuel to move up in the draft, but reading through this thread and having a day to think about it, I'm okay with it. I like Adam Fox. Fits our system needs like a glove. Any defenseman we pick this year likely wont be ready for NHL time until 2022, so using 2nds to get a prospect who is much more likely to contribute very soon is a good thing.

 

[eco's bones]

Fox probably wanted to turn pro--Carolina probably wanted him to turn pro too but Fox didn't want to play for Carolina (or Calgary for that matter). He wanted to play for the Rangers and maybe nobody else and the Rangers liked and wanted him apparently enough that they gave what amounts to probably 2 2nd's for him and considering that between Fox and the Rangers they kind of had the Hurricanes over the barrel--to give up that much instead of waiting a year and potentially giving up nothing and getting him for free the Rangers must think a whole hell of a lot of Fox.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Saarela was always overrated because people here think the Finnish league is better than what it is. Without one exception, every kid coming here from Liiga has higher expectations than reality.

The Liiga is not terrible, but it is worse than the AHL. Allsvenskan is the second tier in Sweden and according to @Ola the top teams there are on par with many Finnish Liiga teams. Others suggested the same. Watching players move from Liiga to NA leaves that impression also.

That's because top teams in Allsvenskan are basically SHL teams since they move back and forth between the two. Liiga is a closed league. Liiga is still better than Allsvenskan as a whole.

 

[eco's bones]

My speculation is that if the Rangers trade Kreider for a mid-first, they're goal is to be that much closer to where they want to move.

So let's say they land the 14th pick; I don't think that's the final goal. I think the interest is likely to be getting to 9, 10 or 12.

If you figure the range for moving up is usually between 2-5 slots, that puts them where they supposedly want to be.

That would be harder to do from the Jets pick. Best case scenario is 18, and even in that scenario 5 picks "only" gets you to 13.

To me there's a fairly strong likelihood that by 14 you've gone past a tier of players into another in which there are maybe 10-15 guys who could go anywhere between 12/13 and the end of the 1st round--so moving from 18 t0 14 isn't necessarily going to get you anywhere and you might as well stay where you are.

So to me there's two scenarios if you move Kreider for say the 14th--and in the first scenario you've already got a target team in mind who you've talked to to move up a few more spots with the 14 and something else.

The second scenario is draft day--watching to see if someone falls and using Kreider that way.

There's a third alternative and that's moving Kreider after the draft for a 2020 1st. That could backfire a bit depending on how his new team does but it also allows the Rangers--if they're in on Panarin for instance to see how that situation unfolds. And for a team that wants Kreider but also wants to make a splash in the 2019 draft that allows them to have their cake and eat it and pay for it later like they used a credit card. That would give us the potential for 3 1st's in the 2020 draft--if Zucc signed up with Dallas. There's also the potential that if we don't make the playoffs and Kreider's new team doesn't or Dallas falls off the cliff that we'd have multiple lottery chances.

 

[haohmaru]

I guess I'm a little confused as well.

There's push back because the Rangers traded two picks for a guy they could potentially have a year from now.

But at the same time, we're talking about packaging some combination of our best trade asset, picks and/or prospects to get a guy who is going to be available a year from now.

I get that Trouba is more established, but the latter has a much higher price point.

I think people are forgetting that there's a lot of value in getting him 17-18 months earlier and possibly playing a multitude of NHL games for us next season paired with the fact that you don't have to pursue him on the open market, worry about injuries @ Harvard, or worry that he changes his mind and stays in school.

If he plays 30+ for us next season, that's absolutely worth that 3rd changing to a 2nd.

 

[Edge]

To me there's a fairly strong likelihood that by 14 you've gone past a tier of players into another in which there are maybe 10-15 guys who could go anywhere between 12/13 and the end of the 1st round--so moving from 18 t0 14 isn't necessarily going to get you anywhere and you might as well stay where you are.

So to me there's two scenarios if you move Kreider for say the 14th--and in the first scenario you've already got a target team in mind who you've talked to to move up a few more spots with the 14 and something else.

The second scenario is draft day--watching to see if someone falls and using Kreider that way.

There's a third alternative and that's moving Kreider after the draft for a 2020 1st. That could backfire a bit depending on how his new team does but it also allows the Rangers--if they're in on Panarin for instance to see how that situation unfolds. And for a team that wants Kreider but also wants to make a splash in the 2019 draft that allows them to have their cake and eat it and pay for it later like they used a credit card. That would give us the potential for 3 1st's in the 2020 draft--if Zucc signed up with Dallas. There's also the potential that if we don't make the playoffs and Kreider's new team doesn't or Dallas falls off the cliff that we'd have multiple lottery chances.

It’s hard to say because there’s a balance between who the Rangers value, and who might fall.

That’s always the challenge this time of year, the Rangers top 10 could very well have a guy that this board has 15 or 16.

Likewise, a guy the Rangers take at 21 could very well be a guy like Dorofyev - aka a player we have higher than most observers.

 

[Edge]

I think people are forgetting that there's a lot of value in getting him 17-18 months earlier and possibly playing a multitude of NHL games for us next season paired with the fact that you don't have to pursue him on the open market, worry about injuries @ Harvard, or worry that he changes his mind and stays in school.

If he plays 30+ for us next season, that's absolutely worth that 3rd changing to a 2nd.

Yeah that second pick doesn’t bother me at all; it means Fox is probably doing something right.

 

[nyr2k2]

It just can't be assumed that Fox would sign here. We've seen so many times over the years where guys are "sure things" to sign somewhere, and then they don't. If this enhances our ability to sign him by giving us exclusive negotiating rights, then it's totally worth it. We traded a second and third, or two seconds, for a first, is how I see it. There were no guarantees here, so that's worth it to me. Draft picks are capital that can be used a few different ways, and this is one way.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Yeah that second pick doesn’t bother me at all; it means Fox is probably doing something right.

Again, if the price to move up five spots is a 2nd round pick, that makes Fox the equivalent of at least a pat 1st in this draft. If you think Fox has at least that value, this trade is appropriately constructed.

 

[TheTakedown]

Need to stop bashing Pionk. He was a 23 year old rookie defenseman. They normally take longer to develop, and he's always been a late bloomer. Pionk will be significantly better in 2 years (2020-21). Let's be patient.

Nothing indicates he will be better. He's a good #5 guy but he is basically Dan Girardi back there

 

[TheTakedown]

Doubt it but NYR and Carolina could have a side deal like Namestnikov for a 2nd


Canes are in the playoff spot so wouldn’t add a nhl player now

Actually, on this note, remember at this past years draft? Carolina and NYR inexplicably swapped 7th round picks? GMs make these deals with a "listen I'll get you back later".l clause sometimes, and this could be one of those times?

 

[Leetch3]

Saarela was always overrated because people here think the Finnish league is better than what it is. Without one exception, every kid coming here from Liiga has higher expectations than reality.

The Liiga is not terrible, but it is worse than the AHL. Allsvenskan is the second tier in Sweden and according to @Ola the top teams there are on par with many Finnish Liiga teams. Others suggested the same. Watching players move from Liiga to NA leaves that impression also.

not the hot take i want to read as we plan on taking a finnish guy with our highest pick ever lol

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Nothing indicates he will be better. He's a good #5 guy but he is basically Dan Girardi back there

Being a #5 guy is great value for an UDFA

 

[Leetch3]

This reminds me of the MSL trade when a player requests a trade and pretty much indicates that Rangers is their target then instead of us paying a discounted price we pay more than we should be.

Also if we accumulated a bunch of high draft picks and won a lottery it doesn't mean we should start throwing those draft picks away by either making dumb trades or drafting questionable players.

I think you are confusing overpaying with not underpaying as much as we hoped. we hoped to steal him but we still got him for way less than he is worth. if he was signed, he wouldn't have been available and certainly wouldn't be available at this price. we still got him for less than he is worth

 

[haveandare]

I really don’t see it with Trouba. We’d regret trading a big package for him imo. He’s good but not the level many seem to think, and he’s very unreliable

 

[NYRKing]

The only reason people are feeling this was an over payment is because Fox refused to sign with the canes and flames, and was destined for UFA if he didn't land in the right market, thus severely plummeting his trade value.

If we traded two seconds for a D-man in a similar tier as Fox - Smith, Dobson, Sandin, Fabbro, brannstrom etc. - people would be doing back-flips.

These prospects are never available unless you're giving up a bonafide star or similar blue chip prospect, or if they refuse to sign with the team(s) holding their rights....

 

[bernmeister]

This is great news for us, duh.

I remember reading somewhere on the boards sometime ago Fox partnered with Lindgren, and worked seamlessly together. Good for them both.

 

[LORDE]

Was texting back and forth with a couple of hockey guys during work... here's some thoughts on Fox:

• Production wise-> Probably one of the, if not the most prolific offensive defensemen in the last 20 years of college hockey.
• Deft passer, and situational awareness. Just oozes hockey IQ. Can process the game at an elite level.
• Master of deception. Passes, dekes, and moves the puck while breaking down his forecheckers. Can create a transition attack out of nothing.
• Not an elite skater, but more than good enough to play in the NHL given the other skill sets.
• Will need to learn to defend with his feet at the NHL level. Reaching and boxing out works in college hockey against tertiary competition, but he's not going to face those types of minutes in the NHL.
• Make a lot of deft plays that lead to tip ins and rebound chances. Put him out there with good transition wingers and guys that aren't afraid of the net, and he'll create chances by getting pucks up the ice and through to the net.
• Good decision maker when it comes to establishing line changes, and getting pucks in deep where guys can win a battle. Very smart player who understands how to control the pace of the game by using the ice and his teammates. Leagues ahead of some NHL defensemen in this regard.
• Knows how to get lost in the picture and re-appear.
• Question mark is how he handles NHL size and speed, especially and big boys who can carry the puck. There aren't many college kids in his division that fit that profile of player. Will be new to Fox.

Exactly what I was looking for.

Thanks for posting this.

 

[Tawnos]

I think you are confusing overpaying with not underpaying as much as we hoped. we hoped to steal him but we still got him for way less than he is worth. if he was signed, he wouldn't have been available and certainly wouldn't be available at this price. we still got him for less than he is worth

This is a fantastic way of putting the situation.