Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIV -- The Doggiest Days (Woof!) 2017

[Ridley Simon]

Seems like the prefix for this thread is Speculation. Pretty much the opposite of wait and see. I'm not willing to give management a pass for what I consider a crappy offseason.

Your definition of irreplaceable is an odd one. Of course they can plug another LD in there. It's about whether or not they'll be able to play at a level similar to Schmidt. That can only be found out after watching them play at the NHL level.

How is my definition of irreplaceable an odd one? The team thinks they will replace Schmidt. Several posters on here think they won't.

I dont believe Schmidt's loss will hurt them, as much as say an Oshie loss, or a Burakovsky loss, or a Wilson loss (or even an Eller loss) would hurt them. I find them harder to replace than Schmidt, given the rest of what transpired in the off season.

It would have been easier to replace Grubauer than Schmidt, but thats not what happened. We protected certain players based on our needs. Schmidt wasnt one of those. Would we have rather kept him? Of course...but not at the change of losing one of the F's mentioned. And hence why they went 7-3-1.

The whole premise here is that they should have traded MaJo before the expansion draft, gone 4x4, and protected Schmidt. That's false, as:
A: didnt have Oshie resigned yet, so had they traded MaJo and Oshie didnt resign, then they are SOL, especially if the lose *another F* in Wilson, or Eller (assuming 4th F protected was Burakovsky?)
B: Schmidt may have not fit into their salary structure anyway, had the rest of the moves played out, and MaJo was traded or taken, and or MaJo was traded and Wilson taken
C: there are so many variables to consider, its impossible to do an "if, then" with the results. Especially has they gone 4x4 in protection.

Caps were screwed into losing players no matter what. Salary Cap and Expansion Draft results couldnt have been a lot different, unless we were prepared to lose a lot more forwards. And when looking at Hershey, we have a lot more D thats "close", at least in the eyes of the management group.

Furthering this: Hershey (or anywhere else) doesnt have a Wilson or an Eller to promote. Beagle could have moved up, and then a Stephenson could have been 4C. But it seems they find that a worse alternative to Lewington, Hobbs, or Djoos playing on the bottom pair (as Schmidt was doing). Our issue in losing Schmidt is that we need 2 D's, not one. But they also seem to think that a Siegenthaler or Johanssen can also fill the void.

Again, we will see.

 

[Langway]

17 points, a +22, 15:29 avg TOI and 53.5 CF% is an awfully high bar for any rookie defenseman, even in what was admittedly a fairly insulated role on a very strong regular season team. Seven rookie defenders met the point threshold last season and only Zach Werenski met three of the four categories. I'd wager it's very rare.

IMO it's possible they can replace the point production and TOI between Djoos and Bowey. It's not that hard to find but it really remains to be seen whether Djoos can hack it on the second pair and even if he can in time I doubt he's going to see late game one-goal nursing type usage any time soon. Overall, it's hard to peg how mature and consistent either player will be in their own zone. Bowey has the physicality to thrive in one-on-one battles but the inconsistency/hockey IQ could be problematic. Djoos will need to think his way around every limitation and that's a tall order on the fly against a new level of competition. A multitude of options makes replacing Schmidt long-term feasible enough but it doesn't mean it's going to happen soon. They do have a lot of legit prospects but I'm not sure they have a single stud among them. All have areas to improve upon. Whereas Schmidt, regardless of just how much he continues to improve, will very likely be in his prime for the next three to four seasons.

Their weak forward depth did put them in a bind and, as I tend to harp on, they're not good at manufacturing versatile depth options. That's particularly important when they've relied upon so many forwards that don't kill penalties. They need more dimensions in their players and it's on them to set that standard. Not many good third-liners were signed in UFA at feasible low prices but there are some bottom six scraps that could be worthwhile to teams: Stafford, Da Costa and the slower over-the-hill gang (Vanek, Jagr, Iginla, Doan) provided there's enough hockey IQ around them so that speed is less important.

They had a tricky off-season and they continue to field a somewhat awkward team that basically hasn't changed on any substantial type level aside from being relatively inferior. Those organization issues are only going to become more important to tackle as any inherent margin tightens.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

They're likely not going to replace him with any single one player. It's going to be a group effort. His ability to lug to puck through center ice is the singular glaring skill that will be hard to replace....everything else is a fairly mixed bag skill-wise IMO. Certain players could play better, eating up more ice time (Carlson could get back to his top end play and Orlov should continue to grow and expand his role to all zones).

I expect Bowey to make the team and Djoos to get call up time (or vice versa). I expect Chorney to get a decent amount of play and I expect them to be a 3-6 seed in the playoffs. Punchers chance in the postseason...right back in our organizational sweet spot.

 

[Ridley Simon]

17 points, a +22, 15:29 avg TOI and 53.5 CF% is an awfully high bar for any rookie defenseman, even in what was admittedly a fairly insulated role on a very strong regular season team. Seven rookie defenders met the point threshold last season and only Zach Werenski met three of the four categories. I'd wager it's very rare.

IMO it's possible they can replace the point production and TOI between Djoos and Bowey. It's not that hard to find but it really remains to be seen whether Djoos can hack it on the second pair and even if he can in time I doubt he's going to see late game one-goal nursing type usage any time soon. Overall, it's hard to peg how mature and consistent either player will be in their own zone. Bowey has the physicality to thrive in one-on-one battles but the inconsistency/hockey IQ could be problematic. Djoos will need to think his way around every limitation and that's a tall order on the fly against a new level of competition. A multitude of options makes replacing Schmidt long-term feasible enough but it doesn't mean it's going to happen soon. They do have a lot of legit prospects but I'm not sure they have a single stud among them. All have areas to improve upon. Whereas Schmidt, regardless of just how much he continues to improve, will very likely be in his prime for the next three to four seasons.

Their weak forward depth did put them in a bind and, as I tend to harp on, they're not good at manufacturing versatile depth options. That's particularly important when they've relied upon so many forwards that don't kill penalties. They need more dimensions in their players and it's on them to set that standard. Not many good third-liners were signed in UFA at feasible low prices but there are some bottom six scraps that could be worthwhile to teams: Stafford, Da Costa and the slower over-the-hill gang (Vanek, Jagr, Iginla, Doan) provided there's enough hockey IQ around them so that speed is less important.

They had a tricky off-season and they continue to field a somewhat awkward team that basically hasn't changed on any substantial type level aside from being relatively inferior. Those organization issues are only going to become more important to tackle as any inherent margin tightens.

I'm more concerned with the last 20 games of the season and into the playoffs for the replacement defensemen, than I am the rest of it. Schmidt (who we didnt draft, was a college FA, right? Could be more of those out there) took some time to become what he became, vs NHL competition. So, I expect the same for all of the Caps young D-men (and I forgot to list Bowey, obv he is part of the equation).

I honestly think that, Big Picture, GMBM will come up with something for the next 3-4 seasons, up til Ovechkin's contract expiration. I see a lot of similarities to 2014-15.

His first season (along w Trotz's) was similar to this one...they didnt really know what they had, and they went into the season with a lot of question marks. Over the course of the season, many got answered, and it set them up for their 2yr run...which culminated in tremendous RS success, but little PS success. I'm going to wager that GMBM learned from that, and will use this season as another springboard for his next window.

It may (but prob not) include Trotz. Where he will need to add players etc will become apparent to him over the season, and by the summer he will have a very specific plan in place, IMO, where there will be significantly less moving pieces and less outside factors (IE, expansion draft). Cap will continue to rise, and most of their core pieces, save Carlson, are pretty much locked in. Bura will be due a raise in 2yrs, of merited, but a lot of contracts will expire too. Eller, Beagle, Orpik, etc will all be gone or here at lower numbers with regards to sal cap %.

I dont think last year was the last kick at the can for 8/19. I think we have a few more realistic chances over the course of the next 4-5 seasons.

Again, we will see.

 

[Hivemind]

Haven't kept up with this thread. I hope to find time and pick up some of the discussions from the past couple pages, but we'll see.


Nate Schmidt's arbitration request is only $2.75M. Las Vegas elected a 2-year option, with requests at $975K AAV. If they end up going with the arbitration award, it's presumably going to come around or just under $2M. They may, however, sign a bigger contract outside of arbitration.

 

[Brian23]

I'm surprised he only asked for 2.75. I figure that's about what he's worth and you'd think they'd shoot higher than that to get the right price.

 

[Hivemind]

His boxcars don't warrant a big payday. The arbitration process won't be generous and won't pay for his upside. Most of his comparables are in the $2M or less range.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He's got a 16 and 17 pt season and has a career high of 3G in a season. Curious on comparables....I'm going to say he comes in around $2 mil per which will only serve to further infuriate some and entertain others.

 

[Hivemind]

The cost/benefit ratio of Nate Schmidt is one of the best features of the player. He was likely the best non-ELC bargain in the entire NHL on defense last season. This upcoming year (and the year after thanks to Vegas electing a 2-year arbitration) he will still be very affordable. That's a big part of why many here were infatuated with Schmidt on a very much cap-limited team like the Capitals. His true worth is far beyond the boxcar stats that typically decide arbitration contracts.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

We'll see if his numbers improve. I don't think he has a ton of upside production-wise. Prove me wrong Nate! I'll still be rooting for you!

 

[Langway]

The cost/benefit ratio of Nate Schmidt is one of the best features of the player. He was likely the best non-ELC bargain in the entire NHL on defense last season. This upcoming year (and the year after thanks to Vegas electing a 2-year arbitration) he will still be very affordable. That's a big part of why many here were infatuated with Schmidt on a very much cap-limited team like the Capitals. His true worth is far beyond the boxcar stats that typically decide arbitration contracts.

#NatetoDC2019

It's kind of dumb for Vegas to pinch pennies on a player like Schmidt given all of the cap flexibility they have long-term. It takes two sides but at this point Schmidt might as well just bet on himself, take the two year award and see what he can get on the open market upon completion.

 

[Hivemind]

#NatetoDC2019

It's kind of dumb for Vegas to pinch pennies on a player like Schmidt given all of the cap flexibility they have long-term. It takes two sides but at this point Schmidt might as well just bet on himself, take the two year award and see what he can get on the open market upon completion.

I think Nate and his agent are electing to bet on himself. If Vegas went with a 1 year award, Nate can simply file for arbitration again next year at presumably a higher value. The only way it makes sense for Schmidt to sign long term is if McPhee was willing to pay him like a Top 4 defenseman now. McPhee, realizing this, elected to at least get a cheap 2018-19 out of Schmidt as well, and hope to work out a long term deal before he hits UFA.

 

[Langway]

The only way it makes sense for Schmidt to sign long term is if McPhee was willing to pay him like a Top 4 defenseman now. McPhee, realizing this, elected to at least get a cheap 2018-19 out of Schmidt as well, and hope to work out a long term deal before he hits UFA.

Of course, but he should be paid like a top 4 defenseman and deciding to get greedy on a second year isn't the way for them to play it. Not unless they're perfectly content to move him relatively soon and this is merely a way to boost near-term value.

Vegas shouldn't be terribly concerned with near-term cap management just yet. They only have four NHLers on the books beyond '18-19--one of which is Clarkson who very well may stay on LTIR throughout--so it's in their interest to think bigger picture and about the value of stability. I get waiting a year to see how he adjusts but if a two-year arb award comes down then IMO Vegas botched it. Unless Schmidt isn't open to committing a realistic four-year deal should be possible in the $3-3.5M range given his current RFA demands. That should be a gamble they're comfortable taking.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think he plays there a season and a half at most and gets traded away.

 

[Holtbyisms]

He wants a 1 off deal to come back home! #freeN88

 

[Ovechclutch]

So what do you guys think the lines are gonna look like next year?

 

[Coldplay619]

So what do you guys think the lines are gonna look like next year?

Something terrible.

 

[um]

So what do you guys think the lines are gonna look like next year?

Not what I want but what I think it will end up being to start:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie
Connolly-Kuznetsov-Burakovsky
Vrana-Eller-Wilson
Walker-Beagle-Smith-Pelly

Orlov-Niskanen
Orpik-Carlson
Chorney-Bowey

Trotz has never been big on playing the kids or trying new lines.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Not what I want but what I think it will end up being to start:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie
Connolly-Kuznetsov-Burakovsky
Vrana-Eller-Wilson
Walker-Beagle-Smith-Pelly

Orlov-Niskanen
Orpik-Carlson
Chorney-Bowey

Trotz has never been big on playing the kids or trying new lines.

He has no choice, that's different. He can't do an all-vet lineup like last year.

 

[Ovechclutch]

Not what I want but what I think it will end up being to start:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie
Connolly-Kuznetsov-Burakovsky
Vrana-Eller-Wilson
Walker-Beagle-Smith-Pelly

Orlov-Niskanen
Orpik-Carlson
Chorney-Bowey

Trotz has never been big on playing the kids or trying new lines.

Yeah that's about what I think they're going to be. Would like to see:

Burakovsky-Backstrom-Oshie
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Vrana-Eller-Connolly
Walker-Beagle-Smith-Pelly

Orlov-Niskanen
Djoos-Carlson
Orpik-Bowey

 

[um]

He has no choice, that's different. He can't do an all-vet lineup like last year.

What I mean is they're not gonna get much ice time or responsibility.

 

[g00n]

What I mean is they're not gonna get much ice time or responsibility.

If that happens he needs to be fired. The veteran "all in" window is closed. This team NEEDS development of its prospects at the NHL level now. If Trotz is not willing or capable of finding a balance between veterans and rookies on the squad, and he still can't get out of the 2nd round with a vet-heavy team, then what kind of coach is he and what good is he doing this organization? At that point he's checking off none of the boxes we're looking for.

 

[Corby78]

If that happens he needs to be fired. The veteran "all in" window is closed. This team NEEDS development of its prospects at the NHL level now. If Trotz is not willing or capable of finding a balance between veterans and rookies on the squad, and he still can't get out of the 2nd round with a vet-heavy team, then what kind of coach is he and what good is he doing this organization? At that point he's checking off none of the boxes we're looking for.

Add into the fact that to this team the regular season means nothing. He should know that his job isn't depending on a good regular season showing, so he should be willing to try things and maybe lose some points on the way. I would happily take a third seed if it means a good line for Ovie, varna at full NHL speed, and bura at the next gear.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

What I mean is they're not gonna get much ice time or responsibility.

He has to, unless he's willing to play Backstrom and Kuznetsov 22 minutes per night each. If he does that, they'll be gassed even before the playoffs start.

If that happens he needs to be fired. The veteran "all in" window is closed. This team NEEDS development of its prospects at the NHL level now. If Trotz is not willing or capable of finding a balance between veterans and rookies on the squad, and he still can't get out of the 2nd round with a vet-heavy team, then what kind of coach is he and what good is he doing this organization? At that point he's checking off none of the boxes we're looking for.

Bingo. This would be by far Trotz's biggest failure in his career. Our star power alone is enough to get us in the playoffs, he should use this to his advantage to take time for the prospects.

 

[OV Rocks]

My lineup that I want to see

Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Burakovksy
Vrana-Backstrom-Oshie
Connolly-Eller-Wilson
Walker-Beagle-Boyd

Orlov-Niskanen
Djoos-Carlson
Orpik-Bowey

Holtby
Grubauer

The top 6 is built around playmakers in the middle and goal scorers on the wing. Would it be crazy to say that Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Backstrom, and Oshie could all realistically reach 20+ goals. Who knows that is probably possible for Vrana too playing with Backstrom. The first line should probably have next to zero defensive zone starts but they will score a lot of goals. The bottom 6 scares me I still think they need another 20 goal scorer that can slot in on the third line.

I am probably in the minority but I am excited for the defense because there are some fun young guys coming up. Djoos and Carlson could be pretty dynamic and Orpik can be a steadying force for Bowey.

Just my thoughts