Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIV -- The Doggiest Days (Woof!) 2017

[Ridley Simon]

For all the talk about Kuz or not knowing how much the RFAs would cost, it was Oshie that forced out MJ. They didn't move MJ before the deadline because UFA's suddenly bolt for insane dollars more often than not.

I cannot recall our last UFA to be resigned to a monster deal after the season was over. It is too risky to move MJ without Oshie signed, so they didn't. If even Oshie had agreed in principal or said all the right things, we have learned those words often ring hollow.

This is a huge point. We had to wait to resign Oshie until after the draft. Imagine if they had traded MaJo beforehand, and then Oshie signs somewhere else? Ok, maybe we'd still have Schmidt....but we would have lost someone else to Vegas. Is Schmidt worth Oshie/(one of Grubauer, Burakovsky, or Eller)?

No, He's not.

 

[twabby]

Ok, I will bite. What other teams had as much to deal with, and did it better?

The Ducks and Penguins both had potential issues in the expansion draft and were able to negotiate far in advance so there weren't any surprises. In Pittsburgh's case they were facing a cap crunch and were able to offload their biggest problem contract in Fleury. The Ducks were potentially looking at losing one of their top defensemen (Manson or Vatanen) or a quality forward like Silfverberg but were able to strike a deal to not only have McPhee ignore those players, but to take Stoner's $3.25M contract off their hands. As a result the Ducks are looking to be just as competitive next season as they were this season. Yeah they lost a good prospect and some picks, but IMO that was a more than adequate price to keep their young NHL proven talent in tact along with dumping a problem contract.

Perhaps neither team had quite as much to deal with as Washington, but both proceeded far more sensibly and dealt with their potential problems in advance rather than simply hoping for the best potential outcome.

 

[g00n]

The Ducks and Penguins both had potential issues in the expansion draft and were able to negotiate far in advance so there weren't any surprises. In Pittsburgh's case they were facing a cap crunch and were able to offload their biggest problem contract in Fleury. The Ducks were potentially looking at losing one of their top defensemen (Manson or Vatanen) or a quality forward like Silfverberg but were able to strike a deal to not only have McPhee ignore those players, but to take Stoner's $3.25M contract off their hands. As a result the Ducks are looking to be just as competitive next season as they were this season. Yeah they lost a good prospect and some picks, but IMO that was a more than adequate price to keep their young NHL proven talent in tact along with dumping a problem contract.

Perhaps neither team had quite as much to deal with as Washington, but both proceeded far more sensibly and dealt with their potential problems in advance rather than simply hoping for the best potential outcome.

We can discount Pittsburgh immediately since that's a unique situation with MAF and there's also the possibility that McPhee knew he'd be sticking it to the Caps. MAF would have been the biggest, shiniest prize in the goaltender stable from a marketing standpoint and you can bet the Pens were aggressive in pushing that deal. You can be sure McPhee wanted MAF more than he wanted any of the players we had to dangle.

So that's maybe one marginally comparable team in Anaheim and I'm sure someone with better knowledge of their cap situation, roster, and farm system can explain their transactions better than I can anyway.

Again, the potential trading partners for Mojo would've been few, if any. How many teams pulled off similar trades before the deadline, without involving Vegas, for a comparable player that ended up being protected?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

We can discount Pittsburgh immediately since that's a unique situation with MAF and there's also the possibility that McPhee knew he'd be sticking it to the Caps. MAF would have been the biggest, shiniest prize in the goaltender stable from a marketing standpoint and you can bet the Pens were aggressive in pushing that deal. You can be sure McPhee wanted MAF more than he wanted any of the players we had to dangle.

So that's maybe one marginally comparable team in Anaheim and I'm sure someone with better knowledge of their cap situation, roster, and farm system can explain their transactions better than I can anyway.

Again, the potential trading partners for Mojo would've been few, if any. How many teams pulled off similar trades before the deadline, without involving Vegas, for a comparable player that ended up being protected?

How do you know that? His performance this year exceeded the expectations we had for him. A 27 year old winger who just scored 24 goals, 58 points for 2 years at $4.5M? I'm sure he would've garnered interest.

He's a better option than the vast majority of available UFAs on the market this summer.

 

[g00n]

How do you know that? His performance this year exceeded the expectations we had for him. A 27 year old winger who just scored 24 goals, 58 points for 2 years at $4.5M? I'm sure he would've garnered interest.

He's a better option than the vast majority of available UFAs on the market this summer.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=134875565&postcount=583

Because life isn't an EA sports video game and you can't just make deals based on value you believe is fair. Who says McPhee wanted to bail out the team that fired him? Or wanted Grubauer over Fleury, or the many other goalies out there?

I was one of the people who thought Grubauer was the pick, but looking back it seems obvious that McPhee would go for the PMD since he's always loved that kind of player. And once I saw some of the netminders available after the lists came out my optimism about Schmidt faded.

And as some of us have pointed out many times, ALL teams were facing a lot of questions and uncertainty surrounding the expansion draft. Not all those with a mind toward trading would've also had the cap space for Mojo, an expansion protection slot to use on him, or a spot on the roster. The list of potential pre-expansion trade taregets was probably very, very small.

 

[RandyHolt]

I feel like for that MJ return, we should have considered holding MJ (cap exceeding rules willing - 10% IIRC) until the start of the season. Hope that some team desperate with a camp injury comes calling. Roll the dice.

The return for him couldn't have been any more meager had we waited (ha) but maybe BMac didn't want the black cloud over the team over the summer, everyone knowing someone is getting axed.

 

[g00n]

I feel like for that MJ return, we should have considered holding MJ (cap exceeding rules willing - 10% IIRC) until the start of the season. Hope that some team desperate with a camp injury comes calling. Roll the dice.

The return for him couldn't have been any more meager had we waited (ha) but maybe BMac didn't want the black cloud over the team over the summer, everyone knowing someone is getting axed.

But then what happens when teams progressively finalize their own rosters and we're stuck over the cap? Our leverage goes to less than zero.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=134875565&postcount=583

The Devils themselves met all the requirements for a trade before the expansion draft. They would've protected Johansson instead of Zajac, as I'm sure Vegas had no interest in Zajac anyway.

 

[OV Rocks]

Hot Take of the day

Sign Andre Markov 1 year 4.75 Million dump Orpik

Why? Save a little cap space this year and a lot next season. Throw Markov on the third pair with a player like Lewington, Bowey, Ness or even Chorney. Put Djoos up with Carlson.

If Djoos doesn't stick Markov is very capable to just into the Top 4. Then there is a 3rd pairing of Chorney and whoever sticks from the rookies.

 

[g00n]

The Devils themselves met all the requirements for a trade before the expansion draft. They would've protected Johansson instead of Zajac, as I'm sure Vegas had no interest in Zajac anyway.

That's one. And keep in mind they did not know the exact cap space they would have because of the FA contracts upcoming, or the expansion draft results and how that would affect the market.

This is really just armchair, monday morning second guessing of the highest order. We know there's little chance we have all the league-wide information possible to make these claims about missed chances yet we still make them.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

That's one. And keep in mind they did not know the exact cap space they would have because of the FA contracts upcoming, or the expansion draft results and how that would affect the market.

This is really just armchair, monday morning second guessing of the highest order. We know there's little chance we have all the league-wide information possible to make these claims about missed chances yet we still make them.

The Devils have $18M of cap space after the Johansson trade. Not every team in the league is stuck against the cap like us. Some teams even need to reach the cap floor
Arizona for instance could've struck a deal for Johansson instead of the overpaid Stepan.

Whatever, what's done is done.

 

[g00n]

The Devils have $18M of cap space after the Johansson trade. Not every team in the league is stuck against the cap like us. Some teams even need to reach the cap floor
Arizona for instance could've struck a deal for Johansson instead of the overpaid Stepan.

Whatever, what's done is done.

Cap space is not the only measurement. Are the Yotes even looking for someone like Mojo? Who's in their pipeline? Why does a team with cap space need to offer more for a player they know the Caps need to unload?

Again, it's not like forcing a trade through NHL '17 or whatever. It could even have been worse.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Cap space is not the only measurement. Are the Yotes even looking for someone like Mojo? Who's in their pipeline? Why does a team with cap space need to offer more for a player they know the Caps need to unload?

Again, it's not like forcing a trade through NHL '17 or whatever. It could even have been worse.

The Rangers were in the same situation as us. They needed to dump Stepan and his contract before the NMC kicked in. If they didn't trade Stepan, they wouldn't have the cap space for Shattenkirk. Mojo and Stepan do roughly the same job, except Mojo is younger, can play wing, is cheaper and has less term. They included Raanta in the deal and in return got the 7th overall pick and young D in DeAngelo.

I'd take the 7th overall and DeAngelo all day for Johansson. As for the actual return we got, I can't see how the trade could've been more lopsided than it already is.

 

[twabby]

They could have also just exposed Johansson and gone 4+4.

 

[RandyHolt]

But then what happens when teams progressively finalize their own rosters and we're stuck over the cap? Our leverage goes to less than zero.

Definitely WITH major risk to hold'em. But Chicago keeps being cap strapped aka minimal leverage, and they kept chugging along. At least until they ran into Rin.

We got 2 picks. As Benny Hill would say, BIG... deal. Not even a 1st.

Let's see if those 2 picks ever pan out into anything - maybe 1 will be a deadline #7D.... but that has a brainfart turnover series ending GA. Point, our parlaying of 2nds into TDL pickups hasn't amounted to much.

Eller.... jury's out I guess but I wasn't impressed outside of that one play the one time #triangulation #cycle

The other 2nd rounder? On a russian kid that never plays 1 NHL game.

 

[g00n]

The Rangers were in the same situation as us. They needed to dump Stepan and his contract before the NMC kicked in. If they didn't trade Stepan, they wouldn't have the cap space for Shattenkirk. Mojo and Stepan do roughly the same job, except Mojo is younger, can play wing, is cheaper and has less term. They included Raanta in the deal and in return got the 7th overall pick and young D in DeAngelo.

I'd take the 7th overall and DeAngelo all day for Johansson. As for the actual return we got, I can't see how the trade could've been more lopsided than it already is.

I don't recall the details but based on this post wouldn't it be 7th and DeAngelo for Mojo and Grubauer if Raanta was also lost? Then you probably lose Schmidt to Vegas anyway.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The Ducks and Penguins both had potential issues in the expansion draft and were able to negotiate far in advance so there weren't any surprises. In Pittsburgh's case they were facing a cap crunch and were able to offload their biggest problem contract in Fleury. The Ducks were potentially looking at losing one of their top defensemen (Manson or Vatanen) or a quality forward like Silfverberg but were able to strike a deal to not only have McPhee ignore those players, but to take Stoner's $3.25M contract off their hands. As a result the Ducks are looking to be just as competitive next season as they were this season. Yeah they lost a good prospect and some picks, but IMO that was a more than adequate price to keep their young NHL proven talent in tact along with dumping a problem contract.

Perhaps neither team had quite as much to deal with as Washington, but both proceeded far more sensibly and dealt with their potential problems in advance rather than simply hoping for the best potential outcome.

The Pens got lucky (common theme), as McPhee helped them out...a lot. But the premise of your stance around "better navigation" really stems around this belief that McPhee was going to work with us as he would all other 29 franchises. That a large assumption, considering the history and what we know about McPhee (he is a man of grudges, and has shown it many times in his career, both as player and as exec)

 

[Ridley Simon]

The Devils have $18M of cap space after the Johansson trade. Not every team in the league is stuck against the cap like us. Some teams even need to reach the cap floor
Arizona for instance could've struck a deal for Johansson instead of the overpaid Stepan.

Whatever, what's done is done.

You are dismissing what GMBM said about this....he made comment that there was a secondary deal he was looking at that would have moved less salary out had the RFA's (Kuz and Orlov, really) signed up for less $$$. He knew what he was doing, the RFA deals coming in so high forced a certain course of action. I dont honestly believe that they wanted MaJo gone, as much as he was a movable target and perhaps wasnt as much bang for the buck with Vrana coming up. And Bura getting more experience.

 

[Ridley Simon]

They could have also just exposed Johansson and gone 4+4.

And Wilson, and Eller. You just have to get it through your head that they valued these forwards more than they valued Schmidt. Period. Whether you agree or not.

They obv valued Schmidt if the commentary around trying to work a deal w Vegas was true. But not more than those forwards.

Thats the baseline. Right there.

 

[twabby]

The Pens got lucky (common theme), as McPhee helped them out...a lot. But the premise of your stance around "better navigation" really stems around this belief that McPhee was going to work with us as he would all other 29 franchises. That a large assumption, considering the history and what we know about McPhee (he is a man of grudges, and has shown it many times in his career, both as player and as exec)

Sure. Maybe McPhee was completely unwilling to help the Capitals out due to bad blood or whatever. But even in the worst case scenario where god forbid McPhee isn't looking to help out a competitor (the assumption the Capitals should have been working with all along), the Capitals had different options available to them such as going 4+4 and exposing Johansson, buying out Orpik, etc.

And Wilson, and Eller. You just have to get it through your head that they valued these forwards more than they valued Schmidt. Period. Whether you agree or not.

They obv valued Schmidt if the commentary around trying to work a deal w Vegas was true. But not more than those forwards.

Thats the baseline. Right there.

Then it's a foolish decision for a different reason: poor player and roster evaluation vs. being unprepared for the expansion draft. Management doesn't get a pass for this especially when taken in context with other big missteps this offseason such as hanging on to Trotz as a lame duck (and potentially going into the season with Carlson as a UFA, though to be fair they could be negotiating an extension now so I'm not willing to say they have screwed this one up yet).

 

[OV Rocks]

Any reason the Caps shouldn't pursue Will Butcher? He is pulling the same thing Vesey did last season and I would say it worked out well for him.

The Caps have 2 openings on the blue line, why not have as many prospects as possible to fight for those spots? Washington has to be attractive to him with a pretty much guaranteed playoff spot, two openings on the blue line and at the worst top 2 in Hershey to start with another high end prospect playing with him, chance to play with either Carlson or Orpik, potentially PP opportunity.

Why Not?

 

[um]

And Wilson, and Eller. You just have to get it through your head that they valued these forwards more than they valued Schmidt. Period. Whether you agree or not.

They obv valued Schmidt if the commentary around trying to work a deal w Vegas was true. But not more than those forwards.

Thats the baseline. Right there.

what is this based on? If they wanted Schmidt protected than the most valuable piece exposed would have been Johansson. Even if we traded Mojo later that was becuase of RFAs costing more than we thought, and we still got a better return than we ever would have for Wilson or Eller.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Sure. Maybe McPhee was completely unwilling to help the Capitals out due to bad blood or whatever. But even in the worst case scenario where god forbid McPhee isn't looking to help out a competitor (the assumption the Capitals should have been working with all along), the Capitals had different options available to them such as going 4+4 and exposing Johansson, buying out Orpik, etc.



Then it's a foolish decision for a different reason: poor player and roster evaluation vs. being unprepared for the expansion draft. Management doesn't get a pass for this especially when taken in context with other big missteps this offseason such as hanging on to Trotz as a lame duck (and potentially going into the season with Carlson as a UFA, though to be fair they could be negotiating an extension now so I'm not willing to say they have screwed this one up yet).

Poor player eval because you like Schmidt more than Wilson and Eller?

And we've gone over and over and over the Orpik buy out discussion. Many (most) think that would have been a foolish decision for a variety of reasons. Again, you just dont like those reasons.

I've gone on record as saying I think this is Trotz' last kick at the can as Caps coach. They are going to honour his contract and see what happens. That said, they have not given him his "type" of roster, so the odds are firmly stacked against him. Perhaps he can make it work. I think its more probable that he's dismissed during the season than it's probably it will work out.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think it's likely Trotz finishes out his contract and they all part ways amicably after a 1st or 2nd rnd defeat.

Will be interesting to see if he can get them going early or if they'll have a playoff headache which would put him at risk if they're struggling heading into Thanksgiving and Christmas.

 

[twabby]

Poor player eval because you like Schmidt more than Wilson and Eller?

Yes? Why else would I say that?