Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIV -- The Doggiest Days (Woof!) 2017

[Roughing]

Meh. I'm good with all of it and knew damn well this was coming. Bmac has done well during his tenure. They kept the most important pieces and I never liked Mark Johnson. All of this would be perfectly fine if they had just sacked up and won the freaking cup. As it stands, all I really want going forward is to get Trotz TFO and turn OV into a 2 or 3 good young players and/or high picks. A Grubi trade for something of value would also be nice.

 

[OV Rocks]

I for one am pretty excited about the youth movement and getting to see some new young guys in a league where the young guys are succeeding. My only fear however is Trotz has close to no history with a team that has 4-5 rookies on it. He will be the X Factor this season based on how he handles all the rookies. He can't afford to sit them all when they make a bad pass but it is going to kill him inside not "punishing" them for their mistake.

Hot Take: Young guys and Trotz don't mix, Trotz fired before Thanksgiving

 

[twabby]

He basically just pissed on your guy Schmidt and you were expecting satisfaction? Lol...

Lots of stuff going on behind the scenes that none of us are privy to. I'm at least moderately satisfied even if I don't love the answers.

I wasn't expecting any decent explanation because I don't think there is a decent explanation for what went down. If losing Schmidt wasn't such a big deal then I'm surprised he even tried to make a last minute offer to McPhee in order for him to select someone else as was widely reported. The much more reasonable explanation is that GMBM wasn't thinking ahead but rather just reacting to the situation as it unfolded.

Plenty of other teams navigated an admittedly tricky offseason smoothly, why is MacLellan granted a pass for his poor results?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Don't You believe most GM's didn't earn their jobs and aren't that smart right? Pretty sure no answer would have been satisfactory for you. Certainly explains your unlikely assertion that GMBM was sitting there waiting to a reactionary instead of being proactive. If Gruby was never a strong Vegas target because of the glut of available goalies, Schmidt was likely the pick all along.

All teams were not in the same roster situation as us. I think the Caps balking at paying a ransom to keep Schmidt shows an eye towards the future in that they're not doubling down and wasting more assets, instead cutting their losses and moving on. The cold truth is that if they believed Schmidt was more than a decent #4 D, they probably would have found a way to keep him. Time will tell.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Don't You believe most GM's didn't earn their jobs and aren't that smart right? Pretty sure no answer would have been satisfactory for you. Certainly explains your unlikely assertion that GMBM was sitting there waiting to a reactionary instead of being proactive. If Gruby was never a strong Vegas target because of the glut of available goalies, Schmidt was likely the pick all along.

All teams were not in the same roster situation as us. I think the Caps balking at paying a ransom to keep Schmidt shows an eye towards the future in that they're not doubling down and wasting more assets, instead cutting their losses and moving on. The cold truth is that if they believed Schmidt was more than a decent #4 D, they probably would have found a way to keep him. Time will tell.

As of the deadline we thought it was worth 3 good assests to upgrade him.

 

[M1K3]

What I can't quite get behind is BMac's reasoning surrounding Schmidt and Mojo. If BMac, as he claims, wasn't sure where Oshie and Kuzy were going to come in at, then why not kill two birds with one stone and send Mojo directly to Vegas for a 3:rd rounder and with the condition that GMGM picked Grubauer instead of Schmidt?

Basically Schmidt and a 3:rd rounder for Mojo and Grubauer. It wouldn't have been a pretty deal, but at the very least we would have retained one of the two. Looking at his selections beforehand, there's no doubt that GMGM was fully aware that he would end up with a surplus on the backend, which would have made Mojo that much more compelling as a trade asset.

 

[g00n]

I don't care what Schmidt does for Vegas, we knew what he was worth here. One could argue he was our best D in the series against the Penguins. His replacement was going to be part of our system no matter what. We need two NHL ready Ds from our system to replace Schmidt and Alzner. Do you have faith in the management preparing two NHL Ds from our prospect pool immediately?

We were expecting to have a hard off-season but not this hard. Alzner, Williams and Shattenkirk were out for sure, we knew that. I expected us to lose either Schmidt or Grubauer, but I didn't think that signing our FAs was really going to be at the cost of Johansson too.



The rest of the league knew we were in cap hell but I don't believe for one second that a 2nd and a 3rd would've been the best offer on the table prior to the expansion draft. It's like he just called Shero on the phone and made a deal in 5 minutes before even consulting other GMs around the league.

Good business would've been never signing Orpik in the first place. His "leadership" led us to three straight 2nd round exits despite by far the top team in regular season points since he came here. Trotz is doing everything he can to diminish Orpik's role and now we're forced to start the season with Orpik back into the top 4.

It's like GMBM said: "We'll sign Kuznetsov, Oshie and Orlov and make sacrifices on every other part of our roster."

Maybe he didn't have a plan at all and got caught off guard.

Didn't he say they had contingencies for which player(s) would have to be traded depending on the FA prices? Doesn't that sound like a pretty detailed plan? Isn't it likely that the FA prices shot up after some of the Vegas deals and other FA moves, and the KHL threats, meaning someone more valuable than they anticipated had to be traded?

What would people say if they traded Mojo for two 2nds, let's say, and then the FA deals came in lower than expected and they could've afforded to keep him? Or Vegas then took Grubauer?

It sounds to me, as I said when this all started, that they got blindsided by the FA prices that trickled down as well as the Fleury deal with Vegas. They tried to move McPhee off of Schmidt but he didn't budge, probably because he had some idea that Fleury was in the works. Am I missing some concrete reason this makes zero sense other than the speculation and ambitious hindsight that gmbm should've seen all this coming?

People here are essentially saying a gmbm is lying. He's probably been TOO honest since day 1. Why would he start pitching a pile of lies now?

 

[g00n]

What I can't quite get behind is BMac's reasoning surrounding Schmidt and Mojo. If BMac, as he claims, wasn't sure where Oshie and Kuzy were going to come in at, then why not kill two birds with one stone and send Mojo directly to Vegas for a 3:rd rounder and with the condition that GMGM picked Grubauer instead of Schmidt?

Basically Schmidt and a 3:rd rounder for Mojo and Grubauer. It wouldn't have been a pretty deal, but at the very least we would have retained one of the two. Looking at his selections beforehand, there's no doubt that GMGM was fully aware that he would end up with a surplus on the backend, which would have made Mojo that much more compelling as a trade asset.

Because life isn't an EA sports video game and you can't just make deals based on value you believe is fair. Who says McPhee wanted to bail out the team that fired him? Or wanted Grubauer over Fleury, or the many other goalies out there?

I was one of the people who thought Grubauer was the pick, but looking back it seems obvious that McPhee would go for the PMD since he's always loved that kind of player. And once I saw some of the netminders available after the lists came out my optimism about Schmidt faded.

And as some of us have pointed out many times, ALL teams were facing a lot of questions and uncertainty surrounding the expansion draft. Not all those with a mind toward trading would've also had the cap space for Mojo, an expansion protection slot to use on him, or a spot on the roster. The list of potential pre-expansion trade taregets was probably very, very small.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don't care what Schmidt does for Vegas, we knew what he was worth here. One could argue he was our best D in the series against the Penguins. His replacement was going to be part of our system no matter what. We need two NHL ready Ds from our system to replace Schmidt and Alzner. Do you have faith in the management preparing two NHL Ds from our prospect pool immediately?

We were expecting to have a hard off-season but not this hard. Alzner, Williams and Shattenkirk were out for sure, we knew that. I expected us to lose either Schmidt or Grubauer, but I didn't think that signing our FAs was really going to be at the cost of Johansson too.



The rest of the league knew we were in cap hell but I don't believe for one second that a 2nd and a 3rd would've been the best offer on the table prior to the expansion draft. It's like he just called Shero on the phone and made a deal in 5 minutes before even consulting other GMs around the league.

Good business would've been never signing Orpik in the first place. His "leadership" led us to three straight 2nd round exits despite by far the top team in regular season points since he came here. Trotz is doing everything he can to diminish Orpik's role and now we're forced to start the season with Orpik back into the top 4.

It's like GMBM said: "We'll sign Kuznetsov, Oshie and Orlov and make sacrifices on every other part of our roster."

Maybe he didn't have a plan at all and got caught off guard.

I do feel confident that the team as constructed can prepare 2 kids for NHL duty on defense by the playoffs. They have a lot of things going for them, and they just did it w your golden boy Schmidt, and w Orlov.

You also ignore that Schmidt's next contract (for this season) could be prohibitive anyway. I think he was gone regardless, unless the didnt sign one of Oshie, Kuz, Bura, or Orlov.

I love how us armchair GM's think "we know better" and could have executed something better. Sure. There is no basis to refute that thought process, so its a waste of time arguing it. Not sure your line of work, but I am pretty confident that a lay person couldnt come and do it better than me. I dont even think my subordinates could...much less someone outside my actual industry.

But no no no, of course 6 or more posters would have had a better off season running the team than GMBM did. Of Course!! it's so obvious what he should have done differently!!!

 

[Ridley Simon]

I wasn't expecting any decent explanation because I don't think there is a decent explanation for what went down. If losing Schmidt wasn't such a big deal then I'm surprised he even tried to make a last minute offer to McPhee in order for him to select someone else as was widely reported. The much more reasonable explanation is that GMBM wasn't thinking ahead but rather just reacting to the situation as it unfolded.

Plenty of other teams navigated an admittedly tricky offseason smoothly, why is MacLellan granted a pass for his poor results?

Ok, I will bite. What other teams had as much to deal with, and did it better?

I know you are one of the posters that is convinced you could have done a better job than GMBM (as you have routinely scoffed at the GM work being done around the league). Thats LOL to me as I'm guessing you havent reached the pinnacle of your own profession, much less one you arent involved in.

Edit-- and GMBM isnt getting a pass for anything. I think *most* posters/fans are looking at his body of work and thinking its been really solid. Save the most cynical of Caps fans, it has. He built 3 really strong teams. They just couldnt beat the Pens (or the Rags best team in 10 years...back in 2015)

 

[Ridley Simon]

What I can't quite get behind is BMac's reasoning surrounding Schmidt and Mojo. If BMac, as he claims, wasn't sure where Oshie and Kuzy were going to come in at, then why not kill two birds with one stone and send Mojo directly to Vegas for a 3:rd rounder and with the condition that GMGM picked Grubauer instead of Schmidt?

Basically Schmidt and a 3:rd rounder for Mojo and Grubauer. It wouldn't have been a pretty deal, but at the very least we would have retained one of the two. Looking at his selections beforehand, there's no doubt that GMGM was fully aware that he would end up with a surplus on the backend, which would have made Mojo that much more compelling as a trade asset.

Lots of assumptions there. We dont know that GMGM wanted MaJo. He's trying to find low cost young players that can grow with the team. Schmidt fits that bill easily (even at 3m a year if thats his new contract). MaJo is 5m a year and a UFA after 2019. Lot less control there, and he wouldnt have Schmidt.

 

[Langway]

For me the issues are:

- Seemingly being willing to gamble on Vegas taking Grubauer rather than negotiating a deal beforehand, in part perhaps because...
- The RFAs weren't done until 6/30 and 7/2 so they didn't actually know how the pieces would fit. In hindsight they wouldn't have had room for Schmidt anyway so...yeah...who cares I guess but then don't act like it was something they seriously tried to do just to placate the fanbase. What took so long on the two RFAs? Did MacLellan try to play a game of chicken with players that had KHL leverage and he predictably blinked? I don't blame him but he had time to better understand his ground and instead it seemed like he just consistently reacted to lost leverage. That's still on him. Now they seem to be setting up Carlson to make the same play. It's just not particularly disciplined or steadied by foresight.

Each decision taken in isolation without much regard to the circumstances leading up to it is logical enough on its face. I may disagree with the beliefs here and there but of course MacLellan isn't lying. But they did put themselves in these situations and even if expectations were that they'd get significantly worse I can't get on board with the magnitude not being important. And, again, they still haven't answered any big picture roster construction questions re: the mix. How do you react when Matt Niskanen shows up to camp and....it's with a lame duck coach, no overarching method appearing to be at play and some unproven youth sprinkled in? I was for a house cleaning two months ago and nothing has changed. The vision just isn't there. It's just hanging on to what's likely a declining core given their ages, some cutesy but not terribly determined younger support players and a lame duck coach.

As-is they'll have five 30+yo's making $5M or more next season. Only Boston and Detroit have as many. The average is less than three. They have eight players overall drawing $5M+. Only Detroit and St. Louis have as many. Boston could join them depending on Pastrnak's numbers. The league average is a little over five. Their decisions place a priority on cheap young players when the system isn't all that good, particularly when it comes to the sort of intangibles some of their older players lack. For this Caps team to be dangerous they need Vrana to be a real player and to be able to cobble together a respectable blueline. A mass of blueline options doesn't mean any will be ready to contribute at a high level and I'll believe Vrana has it all together when I see it. Someone like Gersich in the spring could potentially help but they have to actually close and get that done.

It's not at all surprising they doubled-down on their general approach and are Just Trying To Get There. But they've managed to actively work against whatever coherent identity they had in terms of team defense in having to rely on two of Chorney, Djoos, Bowey, Johansen or Siegenthaler to be solid contributors in the short-term. Say what you want about Schmidt but he was a valuable part of their depth and far more proven than any of these options. To not begin to be able to afford him at ~$3M or so speaks volumes in how they've managed to assemble the roster. Maybe Reirden can work miracles but I've got to think it's going to take time and patience to some degree. It's time and patience which this core can't really afford. Maybe they do manage to keep it on the rails but it's also an off-season where IMO no one should be surprised if it does go off the rails. They've managed to do a lot but still haven't really managed to go beyond the surface.

 

[Raikkonen]

We all know Johansson and Schmidt were not top dogs. They were guys with warts. Both speedy and could make a pass... but what else was their forte?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

As of the deadline we thought it was worth 3 good assests to upgrade him.

Yeah...sadly that time has passed, they didn't win, and their plan had to change.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I do feel confident that the team as constructed can prepare 2 kids for NHL duty on defense by the playoffs. They have a lot of things going for them, and they just did it w your golden boy Schmidt, and w Orlov.

You also ignore that Schmidt's next contract (for this season) could be prohibitive anyway. I think he was gone regardless, unless the didnt sign one of Oshie, Kuz, Bura, or Orlov.

I love how us armchair GM's think "we know better" and could have executed something better. Sure. There is no basis to refute that thought process, so its a waste of time arguing it. Not sure your line of work, but I am pretty confident that a lay person couldnt come and do it better than me. I dont even think my subordinates could...much less someone outside my actual industry.

But no no no, of course 6 or more posters would have had a better off season running the team than GMBM did. Of Course!! it's so obvious what he should have done differently!!!

My main issue isn't Schmidt, it's Johansson. How do you sign all your FAs and only realize after that you're more than $4M off?? This isn't a small miscalculation, it's a massive miscalculation. The logical thought process would've been to trade Johansson right away, the day after we were eliminated if possible. We would've had a better return and we would've signed everybody comfortably.

By the most generous projections, he would've had to clear at least $2M of cap space to sign our FAs. I would've traded Eller instead

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's quite simple, it wasn't a miscalculation. They knew Mojo was probably being moved due to the asks from the 77, 9, & 92. It wasn't a miscalculation, it was the decision to accept he was a cap causality because of their value of the above 3 guys over Mojo.

I'm not sure anyone was lining up to take Mojo while the season was still in progress. You keep mentioning these ideas about how he should have been handled, but the speculative portion of the equation you're suggest is massive. You don't know what if any market there's was for Mojo, before or after the ED, you don't know the suitors if many, and you don't know the offers, but you act like moving him before was a no brainer and they should have gotten a better return. I'm just saying we don't know and these are all huge factors. Me, I'd take a 2 & a 3 from the Devils over a marginally better offer from a hated Eastern rival. I think it's more likely there were very few suitors who were willing to give up much and the Caps certainly weren't doing a stronger Eastern team any favors.

 

[RandyHolt]

For all the talk about Kuz or not knowing how much the RFAs would cost, it was Oshie that forced out MJ. They didn't move MJ before the deadline because UFA's suddenly bolt for insane dollars more often than not.

I cannot recall our last UFA to be resigned to a monster deal after the season was over. It is too risky to move MJ without Oshie signed, so they didn't. If even Oshie had agreed in principal or said all the right things, we have learned those words often ring hollow.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

For all the talk about Kuz or not knowing how much the RFAs would cost, it was Oshie that forced out MJ. They didn't move MJ before the deadline because UFA's suddenly bolt for insane dollars more often that not.

I cannot recall our last UFA to be resigned to a monster deal after the season was over. It is too risky to move MJ without Oshie signed, so they didn't. If even Oshie had agreed in principal or said all the right things, we have learned those words often ring hollow.

Thought that some of my posts here were a contributing factor.

 

[Corby78]

For all the talk about Kuz or not knowing how much the RFAs would cost, it was Oshie that forced out MJ. They didn't move MJ before the deadline because UFA's suddenly bolt for insane dollars more often that not.

I cannot recall our last UFA to be resigned to a monster deal after the season was over. It is too risky to move MJ without Oshie signed, so they didn't. If even Oshie had agreed in principal or said all the right things, we have learned those words often ring hollow.

Very good point

 

[Langway]

We all know Johansson and Schmidt were not top dogs. They were guys with warts. Both speedy and could make a pass... but what else was their forte?

Possession leading to better territorial footing and at least the possibility of further improvement. If evaluations are to be made from that type of standard it should err on the side of youth and upside, particularly given where they are as a franchise. I'm sure ownership has a hand in how this off-season played out and how MacLellan operates in general but he also has misplaced priorities as an evaluator. They're relying upon a fragile, aging core to withstand a progressively weakened supporting cast and no security at the coaching position. It's a very risky way of operating, not just for next season but in how it progressively ages and accumulates over time. It's just not sustainable unless offset by magnificent amateur scouting, drafting and development. Even that becomes further strained by poor asset management.

There's not much apparent chess here and it's increasingly problematic as they get further and further down the road. Do Carlson and Eller walk next summer due to this numbers crunch? Valued center depth is referenced but might they not lose both bottom six centers next summer? There are obvious limits to making here-and-now assessments at most every turn over a longer and longer timespan. It adds up yet they seem to act as though they're exempt from that reality. Without a better understanding of what it takes, not just in terms of player types but development, discipline and patience it's hard to take them seriously. Without those elements their hunger more resembles greed.

That's the basic dynamic in why a house cleaning is essential. Ownership may condone MacLellan but it's a mistake and they're letting players and the fan base down operating this way with little regard to alternatives. Force-feeding fans the same old **** will have a shelf-life, particularly as time passes if they haven't come up with anything coherent to help compensate for the reality of declining players. It's the dynamic they've set up--in part due to the cycle of how these things take place--but having the gift of foresight and making better evaluations period is essential. I don't have faith in MacLellan making those decisions dynamically enough.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

For all the talk about Kuz or not knowing how much the RFAs would cost, it was Oshie that forced out MJ. They didn't move MJ before the deadline because UFA's suddenly bolt for insane dollars more often that not.

I cannot recall our last UFA to be resigned to a monster deal after the season was over. It is too risky to move MJ without Oshie signed, so they didn't. If even Oshie had agreed in principal or said all the right things, we have learned those words often ring hollow.

A very good point.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Possession leading to better territorial footing and at least the possibility of further improvement. If evaluations are to be made from that type of standard it should err on the side of youth and upside, particularly given where they are as a franchise. I'm sure ownership has a hand in how this off-season played out and how MacLellan operates in general but he also has misplaced priorities as an evaluator. They're relying upon a fragile, aging core to withstand a progressively weakened supporting cast and no security at the coaching position. It's a very risky way of operating, not just for next season but in how it progressively ages and accumulates over time. It's just not sustainable unless offset by magnificent amateur scouting, drafting and development. Even that becomes further strained by poor asset management.

There's not much apparent chess here and it's increasingly problematic as they get further and further down the road. Do Carlson and Eller walk next summer due to this numbers crunch? Valued center depth is referenced but might they not lose both bottom six centers next summer? There are obvious limits to making here-and-now assessments at most every turn over a longer and longer timespan. It adds up yet they seem to act as though they're exempt from that reality. Without a better understanding of what it takes, not just in terms of player types but development, discipline and patience it's hard to take them seriously. Without those elements their hunger more resembles greed.

That's the basic dynamic in why a house cleaning is essential. Ownership may condone MacLellan but it's a mistake and they're letting players and the fan base down operating this way with little regard to alternatives. Force-feeding fans the same old **** will have a shelf-life, particularly as time passes if they haven't come up with anything coherent to help compensate for the reality of declining players. It's the dynamic they've set up--in part due to the cycle of how these things take place--but having the gift of foresight and making better evaluations period is essential. I don't have faith in MacLellan making those decisions dynamically enough.

Seems likely to me unless we get lucky in the draft and with the youth developing into very good players, from a business goals perspective, that the next 4 years will be about at a minimum trying to hold on to being a decent playoff team. Anything beyond that is gravy IMO. A housecleaning seems unlikely if GMBM maintains the playoff status and the extra revenue it brings.

 

[RandyHolt]

Thought that some of my posts here were a contributing factor.

You have been beating that drum for some time. Every since you ran into him butter shopping.

 

[dillyboy93]

Anyone think that Will Butcher kid would be good to take a run at? Apparently he's going UFA August 15th, gives us another option on D

 

[Raikkonen]

There is a potential ****up there if they are to continue this limbo life. I agree

I mean, if Backstrom wanna leave and win somewhere else and Ovechkin isn't getting better... It's beyond repair instantly.

They have a chance for a trade but the window is small for Caps. Easy to see them not making decision while the return is there to take.