Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[peterthegreat12]

UNLESS Ovechkin is injured....his game has fallen off of a cliff. He is arguably one of the slowest forwards on the team, he has no hands at this point, and refuses to win puck battles. The only thing Ovechkin is good for is a one-timer on the PP.

Yeah...I'd say I would be cool with trading him if this is what he has become. And man does that make me sad to say.

 

[Jags]

Split them up, put Mojo on line 3.

Or Ovechkin. That's an option we've rarely/never talked about.

Do what the Pens did last year. Put appropriate pieces around your 2 marquee centers and ice a third line with your expensive sniper.

I think Ovi hurts his line at even strength, and that both Backstrom and Kuznetsov would still be stars without him. So spread them out. If Ovi is determined to live in his office and be unremarkable at even strength, use him to anchor a 3rd line and force opponents to defend all 3.

I'm not saying that 8/92/19 are equal to Kessel/Malkin/Crosby, but distributing our talent more evenly might make us more dynamic and force Ovi to work harder at even strength.

 

[Jags]

The real question has been whether or not Trotz is a fit for the roster

He's not anymore. Looking back at the Trotz hire, he was a great fit for what we needed right then -- discipline, systems guys could buy into, and someone to exorcise Oates' influence (especially on Holtby).

Those things helped us, but the ensuing development arrested, and now we find ourselves losing the same way to the same team at the same time of year -- playing perimeter hockey, not getting to the net, too conservative, and zero creativity.

We have the personnel to overcome all of that -- guys that want to get to the money areas that are delivering excellent individual efforts, but systems that don't allow for finish. How many times every game do we see guys spinning and circling and cycling along the boards looking to create space and lanes that NO ONE moves into? We're so focused on not giving up the big play that we've created a culture that absolutely cannot CREATE a big play.

Outshooting your opponent by a ton means nothing if they're all low-danger shots -- the kinds of shots you find yourself talking about postgame like "We need those to go in" and "We didn't get the bounces" and "Their keeper was amazing tonight!"

Trotz is too conservative in the playoffs. His first year it was okay because we were underdogs, had young guys and holes in the lineup, and the 2nd round was a boon after not making the playoffs a year before. Last year it was okay because we hoped he'd learn, both by getting beat and by how they beat us.

This year there's no excuse. We have the guys, and those guys proved they could soar when Trotz eased up on the reins. All that was left was for Trotz to let them fly, and I just don't think he's equipped for that.

He's a superb coach for a weak/building/budget team, but that's not what we are this year. We've lacked execution on the ice, no question, but I think Trotz has been our biggest liability this postseason.

 

[Revelation]

Bura Kuznetsov Williams
Mojo Backstrom Oshie
Ovechkin Eller Wilson
Winnik Beagle Orpik

Orlov Niskanen
Schmidt Carlson
Alzner Shattenkirk

 

[Jags]

I don't know, I suspect "the 2nd round curse" doesn't affect potential FAs that much.

What if you're TJ Oshie? What if you're giving 100% effort, put up back-to-back career years, and finish with teammates and coaches that won't match your will and sacrifice?

Prior to the postseason, I figured we had a good shot at keeping Oshie. He's a smart guy, so I thought he'd realize how he's benefited specifically from the situation he's in here, and that he'd be unlikely to find another home where he'd have a higher likelihood of individual and team success.

And now, barring a miracle, we're flaming out again, and all I'm thinking is, "Hell, if this is how it ends up, why would Oshie want to stay?"

So yeah, I think it matters. I'd be pretty pissed right now if I were Oshie, and far less interested in repeating this sequence of events a third time. Fool me once, y'know?

 

[Jags]

The worse part about the Caps situation is that there top prospects don't seem to be meeting expectations. Vrana has had a fairly bad year overall in Hershey, multiple healthy scratches for inconsistent play.

Burakovsky does not look like a top six forward and seems to be soft mentally.

Bowey had a bad injury this year and has been a healthy scratch recently.

Pretty...pretty...pretty bad.

Vrana raised his game when he was here. He wouldn't be the first guy that blossomed when playing with better talent. Some guys need that. We learned that lesson the hard way many years ago with Allison and Brunette.

Burakovsky... The downside with him this year was the dipsy-doodle bull**** he was doing instead of shooting, and that version of him has returned. But then you look at a LOT of our other players doing the same thing and I think you have to wonder if they're being told to wait for the better shot or look for the better pass to make the better play.

Overpassing and that lack of killer instinct and finish have been going around our locker room like the flu. I'm not convinced that it isn't a coaching/systems issue.

Bowey the jury's still out on. Posting a picture of himself smoking weed showed me that he's still a stupid kid. It remains to be seen if he's just plain stupid.

 

[Langway]

Division is just going to get harder with the Devils and Flyers winning the lottery

It's not like they're getting Eichel level talents, though. But, sure, it's going to get tighter regardless due to time alone.

Anyway, sometimes good decisions don't work out. All I can say is I feel 10x times better going forward with BMac than I did with McPhee.

They're drafting has gotten worse so I'm not sure I agree. MacLellan does more actively address weaknesses but he also seems about the same in not understanding how to maximize or consolidate strengths or further refine anything beyond merely acceptable levels. He seemingly failed to improve the main area of scoring depth this season and more or less seems just as incompetent in finishing a roster off.

The Caps finished with 24 more points than the 9th place team in the east. They could lose every UFA they have and they are still a solid playoff team next season IMO, outside of maybe a long term injury to key guy. And when considering Backstrom was 4th in the league in scoring this season I think you might be a little premature in predicting his decline.

Anyone hoping for the beginning of a rebuild anytime in the next few seasons is going to be sorely disappointed I believe.

I wouldn't be so certain those comfortable margins mean they have a massive cushion they can lean on to get by on a much weaker lineup. I don't doubt 8/19 continue to rack up PP points but I'm not sure they sustain this season's level 5-on-5 if they just do the same things as this season. If Oshie walks and is replaced by Burakovsky? Who knows. There are so many variables at play that I don't think anything can be taken for granted in what this team would accomplish next season. If a fall happens it may happen all at once and their very weak farm system allows them little in the way of firm support. Trotz should be able to engineer fine regular season results but what if faith in Trotz waivers? What if their leadership has run its course?

An off-season of status quo denial should be treated as though they're not to be taken seriously. I'm checking out and anyone reasonable should.

 

[Jags]

UNLESS Ovechkin is injured....his game has fallen off of a cliff.

Not sure about the rest of you, but I'm done speculating that a guy might be injured.

Maybe Ovi's injured and that's why his numbers are off. Maybe Carlson, too. Oh, and Kuznetsov for all that time he couldn't score to save his life. And Alzner, too, because I read that he got into a fight with a jar or something like that. And Burakovsky's hand is probably still messed up. BEAGLE! I forgot Beagle! He's been lackluster lately, but I bet he's injured.

I think all our guys were nursing injuries until that 2-month hot streak, and then they all got hurt and became so-so again.

They're all hurt just enough to be, y'know, hurt, but just barely not enough to actually stop them from playing. So they're all playing, but they suck.

Stop it.

The Penguins are injured. Seriously injured. Multiple marquee players in the press box. And they're kicking the hell out of us.

 

[Brian23]

They're drafting has gotten worse so I'm not sure I agree. MacLellan does more actively address weaknesses but he also seems about the same in not understanding how to maximize or consolidate strengths or further refine anything beyond merely acceptable levels. He seemingly failed to improve the main area of scoring depth this season and more or less seems just as incompetent in finishing a roster off.

I have to almost completely disagree with this. How has the drafting gotten worse? They've seemingly gone more defensive recently, but they still tend to follow the same routine that has worked well. GMBM's job isn't to maximize the roster, nor is it to get guys going. He's the guy who goes shopping for groceries, it's the Cook's job to make the best meal and we just don't have a 5 star Cook. One can argue that he should have gone forward over defense at the TDL, but I guarantee Trotz wanted a defender and GMBM got the best offense he could out of that scenario. GMBM is one of the few guys I think is above the blame recently. He's made very very good moves, arguably, Trotz just hasn't been able to get them to perform at their maximum.

We've just had a tractor trailer driver trying to use a Ferrari for the last 3 years.

 

[artilector]

What if you're TJ Oshie? What if you're giving 100% effort, put up back-to-back career years, and finish with teammates and coaches that won't match your will and sacrifice?

Prior to the postseason, I figured we had a good shot at keeping Oshie. He's a smart guy, so I thought he'd realize how he's benefited specifically from the situation he's in here, and that he'd be unlikely to find another home where he'd have a higher likelihood of individual and team success.

And now, barring a miracle, we're flaming out again, and all I'm thinking is, "Hell, if this is how it ends up, why would Oshie want to stay?"

So yeah, I think it matters. I'd be pretty pissed right now if I were Oshie, and far less interested in repeating this sequence of events a third time. Fool me once, y'know?

But there are almost no "guaranteed" contenders in the NHL right now. When teams like Hawks, Wild, Caps (again) flame out, where do you go "to win"?

Pens are as sure thing as anybody, and a) they probably don't have space, and b) in Oshie's case... the motto "if you can't beat them, join them" is not for everybody.

If he leaves, I imagine it would be mostly due to a big money/term discrepancy, if it happens. With "it's a nice team with great potential" as a bonus.

Also, as a real competitive guy, I'm not sure Oshie would take the attitude of "I am a great player being dragged down by these fools, I must get out". I think he's at least as likely to want another crack at it.

I mean, we can only speculate about the thought process -- but just objectively, it's hard to pick winners (with cap space!) in the NHL, and that has to be a factor in the decision making.

 

[artilector]

They're drafting has gotten worse so I'm not sure I agree. MacLellan does more actively address weaknesses but he also seems about the same in not understanding how to maximize or consolidate strengths or further refine anything beyond merely acceptable levels. He seemingly failed to improve the main area of scoring depth this season and more or less seems just as incompetent in finishing a roster off.

My sense is that it may be too early to make conclusions about BMac's drafting and (lack of) vision.

Didn't the Caps keep the same drafting scouts/specialists? We don't even really know how much of the decision-making can be attributed to McPhee...

As for team vision, the challenge really starts now. Up to now, BMac has been making reasonable moves to get a last crack at the closing window. Defense, leadership, top-6 help, 3rd line center...

He didn't have that much wiggle room to fully flesh out the team. Even so, he almost came out looking like a genius when Trotz put together Bura-Eller-Connolly line. Maybe they were just a flash in the pan, or maybe they were just a hair away from solidifying into something great.

So... tactically I think he performed well. Now we'll see how good his strategic vision is.

 

[Jags]

I mean, we can only speculate about the thought process -- but just objectively, it's hard to pick winners (with cap space!) in the NHL, and that has to be a factor in the decision making.

I totally agree, but I also think that an early exit this year that's riddled with serious questions of effort and execution, both on the ice and among the coaches, might soon become a factor, too, especially when those questions can't be leveled at Oshie.

Then I remember the tweet on his birthday when the Russians took him out to dinner, and you know there's real friendship and camaraderie there when a group of guys that literally have to speak another language when you're around want you around anyway.

So I know there are tons of other factors that go into it, but my point is that this adds a new wrinkle, and it's not a positive one. He has every reason to (maybe) feel that this team can't get out of its own way no matter how hard he tries; that he might make more of a difference elsewhere.

 

[Ajax1995]

An off-season of status quo denial should be treated as though they're not to be taken seriously. I'm checking out and anyone reasonable should.

I'm not arguing that staying pat is a likely step forward to playoff success. I'm just saying I don't see staying pat as resulting in the type of regular season results that would lead to ownership sanctioning a rebuild any time in the next few years.

And I'm sure everyone appreciates the advice on what reasonable people should do...

 

[txpd]

Did Gmbm pick Trotz? I don't recall if there were any stories of back room discussions about who would coach the Capitals prior to Trotz and Gmbm both being announced for their new positions on the same day.

Trotz, like the Caps, had playoff issues. It was a step up as far as regular season performance goes and the results bear that out with two consecutive President's Trophies. I don't think we're going to argue it was a downgrade or even a lateral move from Oates.
.

As I recall, Ted hired Trotz as he hired Oates as he hired Cassidy. The only coaches after Ron Wilson that I can think of that were obvious McPhee hires were the two interm coaches which were mid season changes.

The problem is Ted, but its his team.

When Trotz was hired, I said that the Caps problem was the playoffs and they needed a coach with a playoff resume. And so, here we are. Trotz has choked three years in a row.

My view is that this core is permanently damaged now by the repeated flamouts and embarrassments.

I still say they get no where until they own their playoff failures and work to beat them first and foremost. The Caps are losing to their playoff pressure far more than to the Pens.

 

[Caps8112]

Bura Kuznetsov Williams
Mojo Backstrom Oshie
Ovechkin Eller Wilson
Winnik Beagle Orpik

Orlov Niskanen
Schmidt Carlson
Alzner Shattenkirk

actually like this, especially with orpik not in which wont happen. Only concern is backstrom and mojo on same line. arent they notorious for not shooting

*just saw hes on the fourth line. eh whatever cant be worse then him trying to play D

 

[RandyHolt]

UNLESS Ovechkin is injured....his game has fallen off of a cliff. He is arguably one of the slowest forwards on the team, he has no hands at this point, and refuses to win puck battles. The only thing Ovechkin is good for is a one-timer on the PP.

Yeah...I'd say I would be cool with trading him if this is what he has become. And man does that make me sad to say.

Hopefully the next 3 games turns things around. Been saving it up. It's depressing to talk about but us hardcore fans can easily see how his game has changed. It's therapeutic to talk about it.

The things I am most concerned about are not injury related. I will save the list for the offseason, but will mention one.

The next time Kuz or anyone tries to improvise down low on the PP, or desperate for a goal with Holts pulled, watch Ovi. He is not moving in support, finding and staying in a passing lane, giving the guy trying to make a play an outlet. I expect to see him get into a lane and tap his stick and load the turret, but it never happens.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

As I recall, Ted hired Trotz as he hired Oates as he hired Cassidy. The only coaches after Ron Wilson that I can think of that were obvious McPhee hires were the two interm coaches which were mid season changes.

The problem is Ted, but its his team.

When Trotz was hired, I said that the Caps problem was the playoffs and they needed a coach with a playoff resume. And so, here we are. Trotz has choked three years in a row.

My view is that this core is permanently damaged now by the repeated flamouts and embarrassments.

I still say they get no where until they own their playoff failures and work to beat them first and foremost. The Caps are losing to their playoff pressure far more than to the Pens.

I believe the same.

 

[g00n]

Pretty much.

Although, I will note a couple of things. First, Kuznetsov's line is playing pretty "modern" possession hockey under Trotz. They are doing fine in playoffs overall.

Second, in that one month magical stretch in the regular season, the entire team was playing that kind of hockey.

So, while I think Trotz's instincts are undeniably old-school (Orpik + Alzner ftw, ahem), it doesn't seem impossible for the team to play generally fast/cohesive hockey under him.

I'm not really defending him, but I would like (for whoever makes the decision) to be reasonably sure that the next coach will indeed be better in reality, not on paper (i.e. the "winner" argument).

Yes and this is why I've been critical of Trotz while emphasizing that the coaching staff needs to be held accountable for getting the Caps back to that level of play from the middle of the season. At least down the stretch, and where possible in the postseason.

The problem is there's much less time and space in the playoffs. It's up to the coaches and players to learn how to modify their game to their strengths while countering the opposition. If you try to play a "weave" game for every minute of a 7 game series vs a desperate playoff opponent you're probably going to give up a lot of breakaways or find yourself getting stuck in the neutral zone or on entries.

The skill and artistry for coaches and players in such a case is learning how to anticipate the flow of the game and taking advantage of opportunities. The Capitals philosophy for years has been "get a lot of shots, something has to go in eventually" as Steinberg reminded us in his recent piece.

We are not an opportunistic team and Trotz is not an opportunistic coach. He is a process coach, as was Hunter, as was Oates, as was Hanlon. Boudreau was the only riverboat gambler in the Ovechkin era and he was saddled with bad defense and shaky goaltending. Right now that's what we're getting and look at the results when the we try to swoop around the ice or make cute plays that take an extra move/beat/stride.

IMO the team succeeded in playing an open style earlier this year because they had built a defensive foundation and the style was well-suited to the mid-season lull where you could beat up on teams that were possibly coasting anyway. That **** doesn't work as well vs opportunistic playoff opponents who are willing to bleed all over the ice to stop you from swooping them to death. Even the faster teams we think of from recent playoffs had to bide their time and seize opportunities. They all had to gut their way to those chances, and they capitalized on them. We don't. That's why we keep failing.

So yeah, either give Trotz the plodding coin-flip team he seems to need and let him process his way to the coin-flip championship or find a coach and roster that can adapt as needed and find some kind of identity that sticks and gets full buy-in.

 

[FloridaCap]

I forgot we weren't allowed to talk about Ovi if his game were to deteriorate considerably - so sorry. Thanks for the reality check!

There's a difference between trading Ovi and letting him waltz over to LV for free. Come on, if we were to expose him, George would be laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[g00n]

I believe the same.

IMO it's both mental and tactical.

Because they've lost so badly in the past they cling to the good signs (shot totals, bad bounces, bad calls, goaltender play in some cases, etc) in order to stay afloat emotionally. But those things are not positives by themselves and do not predict future success. It's a mirage. So the Caps keep doing the wrong things while grasping at straws.

Then eventually the other team takes advantage of opportunities because winning is their goal, while the Caps are still in "just keep swimming" mode. That's why the Caps never seem to come out with "a sense of urgency" in these big games. They never learn the lesson we think they should learn because they don't believe they have anything to learn.

Next banner: "It is what it is"

 

[RandyHolt]

There's a difference between trading Ovi and letting him waltz over to LV for free. Come on, if we were to expose him, George would be laughing all the way to the bank.

Actually, that bank account would take ~ a 40M hit. Are you 100% certain he will play to his NHL max contract the next 4 years? Salary caps simply dictate lineups now.

Jagr was 28 or 29 - near the prime of his career when we had to eat 20M of his salary to trade him. Sure, he was a cancer. but oddly, was only a cancer here. But whatever. Anson Carter is better as an analyst than player.

My point trades aren't always as easy as they seem, nor is foreseeing the future. No one would have foreseen him looking like the worst player on the ice last game, but here we are.

 

[OV Rocks]

Actually, that bank account would take ~ a 40M hit. Are you 100% certain he will play to his NHL max contract the next 4 years? Salary caps simply dictate lineups now.

Jagr was 28 or 29 - near the prime of his career when we had to eat 20M of his salary to trade him. Sure, he was a cancer. but oddly, was only a cancer here. But whatever. Anson Carter is better as an analyst than player.

My point trades aren't always as easy as they seem, nor is foreseeing the future. No one would have foreseen him looking like the worst player on the ice last game, but here we are.

Thinking about it I see only one trade that would ever happen involving Ovi and it is for Patrick Kane. Ovi agrees to the trade because its Chicago and can play out his career with a chance to win a cup every year. Chicago gets a goal scorer to play with Toews and can balance out for Ovi's lac of defense. Caps get a producer and an American star in the Capital of the United States. Similar contracts even out. Might even have to add or retain salary to make it happen but that is the only trade I could ever see and it won't happen and I don't want it to.

Long Live the King, Long Live OVI

 

[RandyHolt]

Good thinking OVRocks - 1 high ticket player for another - a change of scenery deal. Most teams cannot take a 10M contract in a Ovi for picks futures deal.

Part on my thinking about half joking exposing him to Vegas if the team radically decides a new direction is best, the teams that can afford him, are mostly rebuilding lower tiered teams - will they want him with their team still a few years away? Not to mention he may have a NMC and those teams wont be on them. Lastly, he would eat up all their cap space damn quick.

The king needs to get back up on his throne. It starts with embracing life on 3, and hitting. It's not going to be via him cycling.

 

[Hivemind]

Slim chance of prying Kane out of Chicago, even for Ovechkin.

 

[Hivemind]

Buffalo is the one place I could see entertaining a deal for Ovechkin. Pegula isn't afraid to spend money. Eichel wants to win now, enough so that he basically got the GM and the coach* fired. Buffalo has salary they could move out (Matt Moulson, Evander Kane), but would likely still want some amount of retention from Washington to make the cap numbers easier to work out down the road (unless they move Okposo). Bringing in a superstar like Ovechkin could really help Pegula put his stamp on the franchise, even more than the Eichel pick.

Question is, what assets would Buffalo be willing to move to make the deal work? Is a place like Buffalo on Ovechkin's limited "Do Not Trade" list?

*Odds of Dan Bylsma being the next coach of the Washington Capitals?