Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[Ajax1995]

All this rebuild talk is wishful thinking. They aren't going to rebuild. You don't rebuild a back-to-back President's Trophy team, you just don't. We are going to lose some players this summer, you replace them with younger talent, and you make another run.

Ding, ding, ding...

I don't disagree with most that there is little chance this group ever gets over the hump but there is no way in hell ownership sanctions a rebuild as long as they keep easily getting into the postseason, regardless of what actually happens in the playoffs.

 

[g00n]

Remember when McPhee wanted to rebuild around Kolzig and Witt and they reluctantly stuck it out? Then right when the team started to become a contender again Kolzig was cast aside because he was in decline?

I don't see Ovechkin laboring through a similar situation. This organization is either going to have to retool ASAP to remain contenders, trade Ovechkin to a front-running organization, or let him walk to Russia.

And given that Ted fired the only GM he ever had the last time the team missed the playoffs, then put the team's focus squarely on winning a Cup, I can't see him going back to square one. Not in terms of where the team is in the league, or where they are financially as a ticket-selling machine.

So IMO it will be Trotz's head that gets lopped off before anyone else. Then Gmbm may be retained in the hopes that he can shuffle a few more deck chairs around and somehow come up with a configuration that repels icebergs. And Penguins.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I agree....it's time to blame the coach and bring in the next lamb. I said it before. The only way Ovy is moved is if he demands a trade or goes back home. He's the golden egg laying goose for Leonsis, not to be given up easily.

A traded Ovy would probably be sparked back to life which would be fun to watch again, for The Rangers or Kings probably lol.

/cry

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ding, ding, ding...

I don't disagree with most that there is little chance this group ever gets over the hump but there is no way in hell ownership sanctions a rebuild as long as they keep easily getting into the postseason, regardless of what actually happens in the playoffs.

The last rebuild was sanctioned after a playoff loss. Empty seats back then were the death blow. As long as Ovy is here, Verizon will sell out and it's just annual tinkering each year trying to milk the last golden egg out of an aging goose. I could totally see him go back to Russia at 35. We're going into a period of "oh what could have been" for Caps fans and it's going to blow as his game deteriorates.

 

[Langway]

Ding, ding, ding...

I don't disagree with most that there is little chance this group ever gets over the hump but there is no way in hell ownership sanctions a rebuild as long as they keep easily getting into the postseason, regardless of what actually happens in the playoffs.

But in the short-term I'm not sure they are a post-season lock. While they were obviously very successful in the regular season the past two seasons there's so much parity that a lesser version of themselves may be what hastens a rebuild. They're likely either going to have an even weaker top six or a weaker D core and perhaps both if 8/19 continue to fade. Where do improvements come from would be my biggest question. Off-roster internal answers would appear to be in very short supply so I don't know how they easily transition into a team with a brighter future without contemplating some tougher questions about this core. If they can't move Orpik at the very least they're going to be a tough spot to fill out a roster with decent depth and even that, based on their weird love for his intangibles, requires a tough decision for them.

Due to that gap in on-roster help I don't doubt they shop Samsonov, Vrana and Johansen for immediate help this summer so that they can try to get one last gasp at least. Who knows if they're done being unsustainable? Can they even exit the bunker and take the step back required?

I don't think Ovechkin himself alone sells out Verizon Center. If the show is over then there's not much to watch. Who wants to see Fat Elvis? MacLellan needs to up his game because a status quo summer of easy shortcut decision-making will not be sufficient for anyone.

 

[Hivemind]

Trading Ovechkin isn't going to happen. No established contender can fit the entirety of his $9.5M contract. The bottom feeder won't be able to afford him. The Caps would either have to retain a significant portion of the salary or take a sizeable cap dump in return. Having $4M+ in dead hit cap on your roster for 4 more years is something you do in a long rebuild, not a quick one. You can't retool if you trade Ovechkin, it signals a lengthy and comprehensive rebuild.

The only possible exception to this I could see would be Buffalo.

Similarly the cupboard is stripped down in terms of picks and prospects. They don't have a pick until the 4th round this year. They are missing 2nd round picks for the rest of eternity. The prospect pool is thin and mostly loaded with fringe players. Even some of their nicer looking late round picks (Gerisch, Pinho) aren't guaranteed to sign. The Shattenkirk, Eller, Laich, and Glenncross trades have helped to leave the system barren.

Without a stocked farm system or at least draft picks to refill it, gutting the team and rebuilding from scratch is a tough sell. There's little hope for a quick turnaround when you don't already have youth you can turn to carry the torch. Madison Bowey and Jakub Vrana aren't going to carry this team to the promised land.

The only realistic path before the Capitals is to take a step or two back and attempt to retool. They won't be "the Cup favorite" the next couple years, but they won't be completely rebuilding, either. It's going to be a transitional period, but they're going to aim to try and restock and turn the system around in a short term fashion, largely around the same core players.

 

[Hivemind]

Holtby hasn't been Vezina in playoffs since, like, the Boston series. And the current playoff run moves him to question mark territory.

I suppose you're correct, in that Vezina is the best goalie in the league. However Holtby was certainly "Vezina finalist" for both of the Rangers series he's played in. He was terrific in both, and certainly played more than well enough for the Capitals to win. Unfortunately, Henrik Lundqvist was playing out of his mind* on the other end of the rink. The 2015 series is still the greatest goalie duel in the past few decades.


*Caps offensive ineptitude helps here, too

Has anyone ever given the Caps a "Good Team Discount"?

Justin Williams

 

[txpd]

Funny. McPhee roundly hated. Risk averse. Protect your nuts. MacLellan roundly liked. Big moves every year. The biggest available mvre at this deadline. Not risk averse and with the exception of the initial thinking on Orpik, his moves have been approved and cheered.

McPhee....rookie coaches.
MacLellan....very experienced coach.

The results. Exactly the same. Exactly.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Division is just going to get harder with the Devils and Flyers winning the lottery

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's shows a complete lack of vision to say no contender and no bottom feeder could afford Ovechkin. There's at least 10 teams who would probably move heaven and earth and any players required to get a star player like him on their roster. And yes, salary might have to come back, but the Caps wouldn't be taking any bad dump contracts.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

It's shows a complete lack of vision to say no contender and no bottom feeder could afford Ovechkin. There's at least 10 teams who would probably move heaven and earth and any players required to get a star player like him on their roster. And yes, salary might have to come back, but the Caps wouldn't be taking any bad dump contracts.

We didn't get **** when we unloaded Jagr

 

[g00n]

Funny. McPhee roundly hated. Risk averse. Protect your nuts. MacLellan roundly liked. Big moves every year. The biggest available mvre at this deadline. Not risk averse and with the exception of the initial thinking on Orpik, his moves have been approved and cheered.

McPhee....rookie coaches.
MacLellan....very experienced coach.

The results. Exactly the same. Exactly.

Did Gmbm pick Trotz? I don't recall if there were any stories of back room discussions about who would coach the Capitals prior to Trotz and Gmbm both being announced for their new positions on the same day.

Trotz, like the Caps, had playoff issues. It was a step up as far as regular season performance goes and the results bear that out with two consecutive President's Trophies. I don't think we're going to argue it was a downgrade or even a lateral move from Oates.

And Boudreau is struggling abroad with his 2nd team since the Capitals. Same problems with the playoffs. So apparently there's a disconnect somewhere at the top when it comes to the concept of a coach that will march this team to the Cup. Maybe it's Patrick, or Ted.

Gmbm addressed team needs as he saw them based on what was available. He made some big moves that were not in McPhee's playbook. They may not all have worked out, but some did, and he generally got the players that the roster lacked.

The real question has been whether or not Trotz is a fit for the roster, and if the roster is mismatched. It's almost like we have a Frankenteam that's a product of committee thinking. And IMO they've been trying to find a way to split the difference since they lost their "heavy team" identity from 2 years ago.

IMO they should either go "full Trotz" and re-emphasize the heavy game or find a different coach and go in a new direction. Whichever they choose they have to match the roster to the coaching style.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

We didn't get **** when we unloaded Jagr

A disgruntled piece of crap. Hard to say they're the same guy with a straight face. I think Ovy would have a similar resurgence and could totally see the Rangers wanting him. At worst we retain some salary.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Did Gmbm pick Trotz? I don't recall if there were any stories of back room discussions about who would coach the Capitals prior to Trotz and Gmbm both being announced for their new positions on the same day.

Trotz, like the Caps, had playoff issues. It was a step up as far as regular season performance goes and the results bear that out with two consecutive President's Trophies. I don't think we're going to argue it was a downgrade or even a lateral move from Oates.

And Boudreau is struggling abroad with his 2nd team since the Capitals. Same problems with the playoffs. So apparently there's a disconnect somewhere at the top when it comes to the concept of a coach that will march this team to the Cup. Maybe it's Patrick, or Ted.

Gmbm addressed team needs as he saw them based on what was available. He made some big moves that were not in McPhee's playbook. They may not all have worked out, but some did, and he generally got the players that the roster lacked.

The real question has been whether or not Trotz is a fit for the roster, and if the roster is mismatched. It's almost like we have a Frankenteam that's a product of committee thinking. And IMO they've been trying to find a way to split the difference since they lost their "heavy team" identity from 2 years ago.

IMO they should either go "full Trotz" and re-emphasize the heavy game or find a different coach and go in a new direction. Whichever they choose they have to match the roster to the coaching style.

If they lose this and Trotz isn't fired, this place is going to implode. Where's my popcorn?

 

[artilector]

Funny. McPhee roundly hated. Risk averse. Protect your nuts. MacLellan roundly liked. Big moves every year. The biggest available mvre at this deadline. Not risk averse and with the exception of the initial thinking on Orpik, his moves have been approved and cheered.

McPhee....rookie coaches.
MacLellan....very experienced coach.

The results. Exactly the same. Exactly.

You could say MacLellan achieved the same thing with greybeard Ovi as McPhee achieved with prime Ovi. That's one big difference right there.

Also McPhee had the early "Pens/Hawks" window of loading up when his stars were young and cheap. BMac's window has not been the same, because his cheap young players are not of the same quality, as a group, as Ovi/Backstrom/Semin/etc.

Anyway, sometimes good decisions don't work out. All I can say is I feel 10x times better going forward with BMac than I did with McPhee.

 

[peterthegreat12]

We need to re-build. We won't but we should. The next few years are pointless as long as 8 and 19 are your leaders.

 

[artilector]

The real question has been whether or not Trotz is a fit for the roster, and if the roster is mismatched. It's almost like we have a Frankenteam that's a product of committee thinking. And IMO they've been trying to find a way to split the difference since they lost their "heavy team" identity from 2 years ago.

IMO they should either go "full Trotz" and re-emphasize the heavy game or find a different coach and go in a new direction. Whichever they choose they have to match the roster to the coaching style.

Pretty much.

Although, I will note a couple of things. First, Kuznetsov's line is playing pretty "modern" possession hockey under Trotz. They are doing fine in playoffs overall.

Second, in that one month magical stretch in the regular season, the entire team was playing that kind of hockey.

So, while I think Trotz's instincts are undeniably old-school (Orpik + Alzner ftw, ahem), it doesn't seem impossible for the team to play generally fast/cohesive hockey under him.

I'm not really defending him, but I would like (for whoever makes the decision) to be reasonably sure that the next coach will indeed be better in reality, not on paper (i.e. the "winner" argument).

 

[artilector]

We need to re-build. We won't but we should. The next few years are pointless as long as 8 and 19 are your leaders.

Yeah. Subjectively, for me, it's much more fun to watch a team that's improving (no matter its current suck), than to wait for a miracle when you run out of ideas how to improve a team that's just below elite level.

But this would be the first year I feel that way in BMac's tenure. I think overall he did very well in terms of trying to take advantage of Ovi's closing window using the boost provided by some cheap young talent -- Kuz/Orlov, and to a lesser extent, Schmidt/Wilson/Bura.

At this point, however, it's very difficult to improve the current team significantly. It's a natural inflection point to emphasize a reload.

 

[Ajax1995]

But in the short-term I'm not sure they are a post-season lock. While they were obviously very successful in the regular season the past two seasons there's so much parity that a lesser version of themselves may be what hastens a rebuild. They're likely either going to have an even weaker top six or a weaker D core and perhaps both if 8/19 continue to fade. Where do improvements come from would be my biggest question.

The Caps finished with 24 more points than the 9th place team in the east. They could lose every UFA they have and they are still a solid playoff team next season IMO, outside of maybe a long term injury to key guy. And when considering Backstrom was 4th in the league in scoring this season I think you might be a little premature in predicting his decline.

Anyone hoping for the beginning of a rebuild anytime in the next few seasons is going to be sorely disappointed I believe.

 

[Portable Mink]

Caps dont need to rebuild.
They just need to keep doing what they have been doing for 10 years. thats all you can do.

yeah it ****ing sucks our results in playoffs. its absolutely ****ed.
but what else can you do but try and trim the fat each year from disappointing playoff performers and coaches.

 

[RandyHolt]

It's a no brainer to first try a new coach before going rebuild / selling off. Being presidential is proof we are not needing a rebuild today.

If we exposed Ovi to George, does he obviously take him?

 

[FloridaCap]

It's a no brainer to first try a new coach before going rebuild / selling off. Being presidential is proof we are not needing a rebuild today.

If we exposed Ovi to George, does he obviously take him?

aaaaaand we've officially jumped off the deep end.

 

[RandyHolt]

aaaaaand we've officially jumped off the deep end.

I forgot we weren't allowed to talk about Ovi if his game were to deteriorate considerably - so sorry. Thanks for the reality check!

 

[Jags]

I don't want Mojo and Kuzy on the same line unless its on the PP. Find 2 guys who will shoot it.

Or just swap centers. If we had a coach that could force Ovi to move the way every other wing has to in response to the way Kuznetsov carries/swarms, he'd get a wider variety of looks at even strength. Defenses have to take Kuznetsov seriously, so if Ovi would MOVE and not constantly wait for the game to come to him, it could be huge for both of them.

I'm just not sure how coachable Ovi is, or who that coach would be.

 

[peterthegreat12]

The worse part about the Caps situation is that there top prospects don't seem to be meeting expectations. Vrana has had a fairly bad year overall in Hershey, multiple healthy scratches for inconsistent play.

Burakovsky does not look like a top six forward and seems to be soft mentally.

Bowey had a bad injury this year and has been a healthy scratch recently.

Pretty...pretty...pretty bad.