A Bridge Too Far

[Bmessy]

This is a list of defenseman drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the 2013 and 2014 NHL drafts as well as they're NHL GP.

2013:
RD 1
Seth Jones - 240
Darnell Nurse - 71
Rasmus Ristolainen - 194
Josh Morrissey - 1
Ryan Pulock - 15
Nikita Zadorov - 89
Mirco Mueller - 50
Shea Theodore - 19

RD 2
Ian McCoshen - 0
Chris Bigras - 31
Robert Hagg - 0
Steven Santini - 1
Gustav Olofsson - 2
Tommy Vannelli - 0
Dillon Heatherington - 0
Carl Dahlstrom - 0
Madison Bowey - 0
Linus Arnesson - 0

2014:
RD 1
Aaron Ekblad - 159
Haydn Fleury - 0
Julius Honka - 0
Travis Sanheim - 0
Anthony DeAngelo - 0

RD 2

Dominik Masin - 0
Marcus Pettersson - 0
Andreas Englund - 0
Joshua Jacobs - 0
Julius Bergman - 0
Ryan Collins - 0
Roland McKeown - 0
Jack Dougherty - 0
Brandon Montour - 0
Johnathan MacLeod - 0
Alex Lintuniemi - 0

9 Players out of 34 that have 15 or more NHL games played. One was #1 overall and another dropped to #4.

I don't think assuming our defensive prospects will be ready to for top minutes in just 2 years of development is a good idea. Our 1st rounders? Maybe, they probably have a better chance. But it's not something I want to bank on.

I think we need outside D help before any of our prospects develop. Even if C. Miller or Morrow really bust out this year.

Also I left out 2012. I just wanted to show 2-3 years of development. 2012 was stacked year for Dmen. Maybe 2015 and 2016 will be too!

 

[jgatie]

One of my favorite movies as well. Eastwood and Sutherland were great in this.

Knock off the pissing contest.

After this there will be infractions and bans.

Enough of the 5th grade bull **** already.

"Always with the negative waves Moriarty, ALWAYS with the negative waves!"

 

[Oates2Neely]

Top-4 defensemen are in short supply. It is almost impossible to acquire one without creating a major hole elsewhere. In the Bruins case, Pastrnak at minimum has to be on the table, and where does that leave the Bruins at RW? Jimmy Hayes?

Seems the Jets are rumored to be in a similar position with Trouba that Don Sweeney was with Hamilton. If true, wise of Chevy to wait it out, take advantage of the restricted tag Trouba carries. I don't see Trouba being moved for a 1st and (2) 2nd's. I'd argue that Hamilton at the time of the trade was a better player than Trouba is now. I really hate the return on that trade. Needed a young body coming back. Flames burned Sweeney. And I don't care that Dougie sucked for a good chunk of last season. At the time of the trade, he was a young premier RH shot dman. Boychuk & Dougie move for (1) 1st and (4) 2nds. Those 2nds were then used to acquire Connolly, Liles & Stempniak. Ouch.

 

[DKH]

I'm starting to feel like Jimmy Vesey getting worn down by Peter Fish and Kevin Hayes/Chris Kreider/Jeff Gorton and give up 4 Firsts or Pasta/McAvoy/first for Trouba

Let's win now- blow up the bridge

I'm giving up the fight and taking a page out of Lonnie!

Yeeeeehaaaaaa!!!!!

 

[Oates2Neely]

I'm starting to feel like Jimmy Vesey getting worn down by Peter Fish and Kevin Hayes/Chris Kreider/Jeff Gorton and give up 4 Firsts or Pasta/McAvoy/first for Trouba

Let's win now- blow up the bridge

I'm giving up the fight and taking a page out of Lonnie!

Yeeeeehaaaaaa!!!!!

Depends on your definition of "bridge". Are we talking the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway, or the troll bridge Shrek lives under?

In 4 years Bergeron Rask Krejci will be 35-ish years old. IF bridge is the plan, it better be a damn short bridge.

 

[DKH]

Depends on your definition of "bridge". Are we talking the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway, or the troll bridge Shrek lives under?

In 4 years Bergeron Rask Krejci will be 35-ish years old. IF bridge is the plan, it better be a damn short bridge.

Maybe letting Marchand go and trading the vets and going completely to the bottom is the way

The Leafs and Oilers and Sabres have a lot of you talent

Something to be said for being really good for 7 years bad for 7 then good again

I would hate to give up Bergy and my kid Krejci but why do a bridge

The problem is the NMC on their contracts

I'm not sure Bergeron waives it if he's building a new home

Marchand would get you not only draft picks but prospects

 

[EverettMike]

Maybe letting Marchand go and trading the vets and going completely to the bottom is the way

The Leafs and Oilers and Sabres have a lot of you talent

Something to be said for being really good for 7 years bad for 7 then good again

I would hate to give up Bergy and my kid Krejci but why do a bridge

The problem is the NMC on their contracts

I'm not sure Bergeron waives it if he's building a new home

Marchand would get you not only draft picks but prospects

This is actually why they should forget about a bridge and use their prospects for immediate help. I want Lindholm, not Trouba, and I'd absolutely give up a package of (or equivalent to) four first rounders.

I know they care about the playoffs, but I care about the Cup, and this bridge you keep talking about to me doesn't look like it leads there. The best players will be past their primes, and the young players will be before their prime. Bad combo for Cup winning.

I've never wanted to blow it up, I love Bergeron too much to do that, but I would have taken some pain last year or the year before because he was young enough to wait. Now? I don't see how these timelines make sense.

That's why I hate the Backes deal so much.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Maybe letting Marchand go and trading the vets and going completely to the bottom is the way

The Leafs and Oilers and Sabres have a lot of you talent

Something to be said for being really good for 7 years bad for 7 then good again

I would hate to give up Bergy and my kid Krejci but why do a bridge

The problem is the NMC on their contracts

I'm not sure Bergeron waives it if he's building a new home

Marchand would get you not only draft picks but prospects

I hope the bridge works. I hope the young blueline kids pan out quickly.

I'd look to move Krejci Chara & Rask. Hold onto Bergeron & Marchand as core. Build around them & Krug. Starting goaltenders are available, and their value isn't great.

Bergeron
Marchand
Pastrnak
Vatrano
Senshyn
DeBrusk
JFK
Cehlarik
Heinen

Krug
Carlo
Lauzon
Grzelcyk
O'Gara

With Krejci Chara Rask Backes gone, I'd guess the Bruins would be picking top-10 for the next few seasons. Add those picks to above stack, sprinkle in some free agent signings, and maybe the team is better/ quicker than it would be via the bridge route? Idk. Just a thought. This bridge talk has one major flaw, it's totally reliant on 18/19 year old kids developing quicker than defensemen typically do.

 

[DKH]

I hope the bridge works. I hope the young blueline kids pan out quickly.

I'd look to move Krejci Chara & Rask. Hold onto Bergeron & Marchand as core. Build around them & Krug. Starting goaltenders are available, and their value isn't great.

Bergeron
Marchand
Pastrnak
Vatrano
Senshyn
DeBrusk
JFK
Cehlarik
Heinen

Krug
Carlo
Lauzon
Grzelcyk
O'Gara

With Krejci Chara Rask Backes gone, I'd guess the Bruins would be picking top-10 for the next few seasons. Add those picks to above stack, sprinkle in some free agent signings, and maybe the team is better/ quicker than it would be via the bridge route? Idk. Just a thought. This bridge talk has one major flaw, it's totally reliant on 18/19 year old kids developing quicker than defensemen typically do.

Kirks blog on Sensyshyn

https://scoutingpost.com/

Some of the prospects that fans are eagerly looking forward to are 45-goal man Zach Senyshn, drafted 15th overall in 2015. Although he’s struggled with mono and a recent emergency appendectomy that will cost him the rookie tournament portion of camp. He’s big, fast, skilled and ready to take a big next step forward. This year is probably not Zach’s year to make it in Boston, but that’s not a knock on him- not everyone can play in the NHL as a teen, but the patience will likely pay off- he’s a player.

Have to agree with Kirk on the status of the right wings

Pastrnak
Senyshyn
Bjork (got to sign him)

that is serious young talent coming along on the right side

 

[bp13]

This is actually why they should forget about a bridge and use their prospects for immediate help. I want Lindholm, not Trouba, and I'd absolutely give up a package of (or equivalent to) four first rounders.

I know they care about the playoffs, but I care about the Cup, and this bridge you keep talking about to me doesn't look like it leads there. The best players will be past their primes, and the young players will be before their prime. Bad combo for Cup winning.

I've never wanted to blow it up, I love Bergeron too much to do that, but I would have taken some pain last year or the year before because he was young enough to wait. Now? I don't see how these timelines make sense.

That's why I hate the Backes deal so much.

You're in my head Mike.

You don't make that Backes deal unless the plan is to contend in the next few years, when you can count on his effectiveness. This defense can't contend, and will probably be challenged to make the playoffs. So there's a disconnect there they need to rectify.

Prevailing wisdom says our pipeline on defense is excellent. But like others have noted, safe assumption is that many of them will be contributors in minimum 2 years but likely 3-5 years. So the "bridge" isn't all that short. Notably, it's probably as long as Backes' effectiveness. So I argue that if those prospects look so promising, then maybe deal a guy like Pastrnak, along with 1st round picks to get a real d-man, like Lindholm. Yes it hurts to lose PAsta but Anaheim will want a player now on top of picks. The defense for that move is not only that this defense is dead without a top guy, but also that if defense is so hard to acquire we ought to have a lot of trade chips to re-acquire offense in a few years.

So I propose they use Pasta as the centerpiece to go after Lindholm, and picks/prospects could be added. If that's unattainable, I still move Pasta for Trouba but probably don't add much. Ultimately at the end of the day, this team is dead without a real top 3 dman and I don't think that guy is coming from the pipeline this season. So unless the plan is to punt this season too (which could make it hard on the GM and coach to survive much longer), they need to act aggressively asap.

 

[Mathews28]

I remember when they drafted Bourque & McCrimmon and I was told McCrimmon would be a bust - no way Boston hits on both. Same with Wesley & Quintell.

I believe they all played over 1000 games in the NHL

I see Zboril & McAvoy both playing a long time so under your % the other 8 never make it.

A lot of subjectivity in how to apply any estimate of probability of success. Including what does "make the grade" mean (my term, in this case I meant be a significant contributor to the team that drafted the player).

So the 20% is what I figured was a reasonable rate of success for the pool of 'D' prospects, regardless of the round they were drafted in. If the pool were all 1st or 2nd rounders, I'd expect something north of 20% maybe.

At any rate, I was thinking that 2 out of the top 8 D prospects become significant contributors (let's say 1 top pair, 1 2nd pair) to the Bruins in the next several years. Of the remaining 6, some may get their cup of coffee but not stick, some may flame out, some may turn out to be Trotman, some may be moved before they get any shot with the B's.

Give me 1 top pair and 1 2nd pair (ok, that's 25%, but I can't have .6 of a guy be a top 4) 1 3rd pair, 1 traded for some other need and 2 flame outs and I'll call it a succcess.

 

[DKH]

You're in my head Mike.

You don't make that Backes deal unless the plan is to contend in the next few years, when you can count on his effectiveness. This defense can't contend, and will probably be challenged to make the playoffs. So there's a disconnect there they need to rectify.

Prevailing wisdom says our pipeline on defense is excellent. But like others have noted, safe assumption is that many of them will be contributors in minimum 2 years but likely 3-5 years. So the "bridge" isn't all that short. Notably, it's probably as long as Backes' effectiveness. So I argue that if those prospects look so promising, then maybe deal a guy like Pastrnak, along with 1st round picks to get a real d-man, like Lindholm. Yes it hurts to lose PAsta but Anaheim will want a player now on top of picks. The defense for that move is not only that this defense is dead without a top guy, but also that if defense is so hard to acquire we ought to have a lot of trade chips to re-acquire offense in a few years.

So I propose they use Pasta as the centerpiece to go after Lindholm, and picks/prospects could be added. If that's unattainable, I still move Pasta for Trouba but probably don't add much. Ultimately at the end of the day, this team is dead without a real top 3 dman and I don't think that guy is coming from the pipeline this season. So unless the plan is to punt this season too (which could make it hard on the GM and coach to survive much longer), they need to act aggressively asap.

Pasta McAvoy Zboril and two firsts do it? He's better than Trouba

 

[Oates2Neely]

I just don't see Anaheim trading Lindholm. Seems as if Fowler is the guy they're open to trading (according to what I've read here). I'm not big on Fowler and certainly wouldn't give up Pastrnak for him.

Has anyone here created a list of realistic options?

 

[DKH]

You're in my head Mike.

You don't make that Backes deal unless the plan is to contend in the next few years, when you can count on his effectiveness. This defense can't contend, and will probably be challenged to make the playoffs. So there's a disconnect there they need to rectify.

Prevailing wisdom says our pipeline on defense is excellent. But like others have noted, safe assumption is that many of them will be contributors in minimum 2 years but likely 3-5 years. So the "bridge" isn't all that short. Notably, it's probably as long as Backes' effectiveness. So I argue that if those prospects look so promising, then maybe deal a guy like Pastrnak, along with 1st round picks to get a real d-man, like Lindholm. Yes it hurts to lose PAsta but Anaheim will want a player now on top of picks. The defense for that move is not only that this defense is dead without a top guy, but also that if defense is so hard to acquire we ought to have a lot of trade chips to re-acquire offense in a few years.

So I propose they use Pasta as the centerpiece to go after Lindholm, and picks/prospects could be added. If that's unattainable, I still move Pasta for Trouba but probably don't add much. Ultimately at the end of the day, this team is dead without a real top 3 dman and I don't think that guy is coming from the pipeline this season. So unless the plan is to punt this season too (which could make it hard on the GM and coach to survive much longer), they need to act aggressively asap.

They could just bundle all these prospects and young players for a 3 year run and then figure it will be awhile and hope a Lemieux or McDavid is coming up when they have the first overall

It's not a bad theory

I know when they got Thornton and Samsonov they made the playoffs in year 1 so they likely would not have to be horrible for as long as the Sabres Leafs and oilers were

I believe most fans would accept the 'all your eggs in one basket' approach to get Bergeron a Cup

 

[DKH]

I just don't see Anaheim trading Lindholm. Seems as if Fowler is the guy they're open to trading (according to what I've read here). I'm not big on Fowler and certainly wouldn't give up Pastrnak for him.

Has anyone here created a list of realistic options?

Ducks need wingers - you offer up Pastrnak and Heinen along with McAvoy I bet you get their attention

 

[JoeIsAStud]

Ducks need wingers - you offer up Pastrnak and Heinen along with McAvoy I bet you get their attention

As much as I love Lindholm, you regret that deal for the next decade.

 

[DKH]

As much as I love Lindholm, you regret that deal for the next decade.

But it's good for 3-4 years and then you deal Lindholm for a ransom

Plus all 3 of Boston guys are just lottery tickets - Lindholm a stud now

I like him more than Trouba

 

[Absurdity]

Do the Bruins burn the bridge if they don't extend Marchand this offseason?

Do the Bruins burn the bridge if they can't extend Marchand this offseason?

We know the Bruins will continue talks with Marchand after the World Cup of Hockey, and in my opinion they will eventually get a deal done. However on the off chance they don't get a deal done close to the start of the season, do the Bruins trade Marchand? What would Bergeron think? Will he want to stay with the Bruins without Marchand and potentially, a weaker team?

 

[DKH]

Do the Bruins burn the bridge if they can't extend Marchand this offseason?

We know the Bruins will continue talks with Marchand after the World Cup of Hockey, and in my opinion they will eventually get a deal done. However on the off chance they don't get a deal done close to the start of the season, do the Bruins trade Marchand? What would Bergeron think? Will he want to stay with the Bruins without Marchand and potentially, a weaker team?

My view is Bruins fans want either all in or all out

Trade Marchand Bergeron Krejci etc bottom out for a few years and restock with top prospects

Or

Trade the prospects to acquire help now to take advantage of Bergeron & Krejci while they are 30 & 31, and then after they leave bottom out

Fans overall want to be at or near the top or bottom

 

[BB88]

You're in my head Mike.

You don't make that Backes deal unless the plan is to contend in the next few years, when you can count on his effectiveness. This defense can't contend, and will probably be challenged to make the playoffs. So there's a disconnect there they need to rectify.

Prevailing wisdom says our pipeline on defense is excellent. But like others have noted, safe assumption is that many of them will be contributors in minimum 2 years but likely 3-5 years. So the "bridge" isn't all that short. Notably, it's probably as long as Backes' effectiveness. So I argue that if those prospects look so promising, then maybe deal a guy like Pastrnak, along with 1st round picks to get a real d-man, like Lindholm. Yes it hurts to lose PAsta but Anaheim will want a player now on top of picks. The defense for that move is not only that this defense is dead without a top guy, but also that if defense is so hard to acquire we ought to have a lot of trade chips to re-acquire offense in a few years.

So I propose they use Pasta as the centerpiece to go after Lindholm, and picks/prospects could be added. If that's unattainable, I still move Pasta for Trouba but probably don't add much. Ultimately at the end of the day, this team is dead without a real top 3 dman and I don't think that guy is coming from the pipeline this season. So unless the plan is to punt this season too (which could make it hard on the GM and coach to survive much longer), they need to act aggressively asap.

When you have Lindholm you don't trade him, and if for some reason you would you don't trade him for winger like Pasta.

Winnipegs need isn't Pasta either, Wheeler/Ehlers look like a pretty strong top6 Rw duo.

They could just bundle all these prospects and young players for a 3 year run and then figure it will be awhile and hope a Lemieux or McDavid is coming up when they have the first overall

It's not a bad theory

I know when they got Thornton and Samsonov they made the playoffs in year 1 so they likely would not have to be horrible for as long as the Sabres Leafs and oilers were

I believe most fans would accept the 'all your eggs in one basket' approach to get Bergeron a Cup

Isn't your bridge at best giving them 1 shot at the Cup?

 

[JoeIsAStud]

My view is Bruins fans want either all in or all out

Trade Marchand Bergeron Krejci etc bottom out for a few years and restock with top prospects

Or

Trade the prospects to acquire help now to take advantage of Bergeron & Krejci while they are 30 & 31, and then after they leave bottom out

Fans overall want to be at or near the top or bottom

I agree with this .

I also agree the Bruins are kind of stuck where those are in fact the 2 most logical paths.

If you trade your Pasta, Heinen, and McAvoy for Lindholm? Is you D good enough to win a cup this year? If not do you need to make another substantial deal to get there?

Same is true on offense, if you subtract your top line RW in Pasta, then you have an offense that will likely struggle at time to score goals, so do you need to follow up with another major deal to add to the offense? Or are we getting Lindholm so we can lock up the 3rd spot in the division the next few years?

Lindstrom is a special case of course as he is in fact a guy who may well be a legitimate #1 for the next 10-15 years. Let's say we can get him and drop to that next level (guys like Shatty, Fowler, etc) . You have to unload a boatfull to get them, and they really don't solve your problems, and instead make you marginally better. So you do need to make 2 or 3 of trades at that level to make this team a contender

 

[DKH]

When you have Lindholm you don't trade him, and if for some reason you would you don't trade him for winger like Pasta.

Winnipegs need isn't Pasta either, Wheeler/Ehlers look like a pretty strong top6 Rw duo.




Isn't your bridge at best giving them 1 shot at the Cup?

If they win a Cup and become what the Oilers Leafs Jets Panthers and Sabres Yotes and Canes have become for 5+ years I can easily stomach it

I was mistaken I didn't realize you guys would. I stand corrected

They should double down and think 3 years.

I like the thought of seeing my tickets going down when they suck

Don't laugh my same seats were $4 less in 2006 than 1996 due to poor records

 

[DKH]

I agree with this .

I also agree the Bruins are kind of stuck where those are in fact the 2 most logical paths.

If you trade your Pasta, Heinen, and McAvoy for Lindholm? Is you D good enough to win a cup this year? If not do you need to make another substantial deal to get there?

Same is true on offense, if you subtract your top line RW in Pasta, then you have an offense that will likely struggle at time to score goals, so do you need to follow up with another major deal to add to the offense? Or are we getting Lindholm so we can lock up the 3rd spot in the division the next few years?

Lindstrom is a special case of course as he is in fact a guy who may well be a legitimate #1 for the next 10-15 years. Let's say we can get him and drop to that next level (guys like Shatty, Fowler, etc) . You have to unload a boatfull to get them, and they really don't solve your problems, and instead make you marginally better. So you do need to make 2 or 3 of trades at that level to make this team a contender

The thing is once Bergeron goes you deal Lindholm cause at that point you'll be the current Rangers- without assurance you can get a Kevin Hayes or Jimmy Vesey as UFA

The Rangers are actually a great example they haven't had a first in 5 years and traded their best prospect DuClair in the Yandle deal and two firsts and Callahan for Martin St Louis

Bleacher Report listed Rangers 29th in prospect talent

But they win and make the playoffs so yah it's a good option

 

[BB88]

If they win a Cup and become what the Oilers Leafs Jets Panthers and Sabres Yotes and Canes have become for 5+ years I can easily stomach it

I was mistaken I didn't realize you guys would. I stand corrected

They should double down and think 3 years.

I like the thought of seeing my tickets going down when they suck

Don't laugh my same seats were $4 less in 2006 than 1996 due to poor records

Why turn this as a joke again when questioned?

I'd be absolutely fine to feel pain for few years and pick high while letting the young players play and develop.

But I hate this plan, we wait 3-5 years for these prospects, we spent 3-5 years praying there's #1D developing which you desperately need and spent 3-5 years praying Bergeron is still Mr Everything top10 C in the league, with Marchand, Backes, Krejci being impact players as well.
% for that is not that high.

 

[DKH]

Why turn this as a joke again when questioned?

I'd be absolutely fine to feel pain for few years and pick high while letting the young players play and develop.

But I hate this plan, we wait 3-5 years for these prospects, we spent 3-5 years praying there's #1D developing which you desperately need and spent 3-5 years praying Bergeron is still Mr Everything top10 C in the league, with Marchand, Backes, Krejci being impact players as well.
% for that is not that high.

Huh? What are you talking about