A Bridge Too Far

[Dr Quincy]

What some people seem to forget/ignore is the actual progression for most young D.

It goes like this:

1) Prospect- player gets drafted, plays another 1-2 years of JR/College hockey
2) Pro- player plays a year in the AHL
3) Pro+- Player make the NHL roster and plays on the bottom pair
4) Top 4- Player can play meaningful unsheltered minutes for a good team

Look around at some of the D prospects in the league who are/were much more highly regarded than Lauzon and Carlo and Gryz and Zboril.

Where's Dougie Hamilton now in that progression?
Where's Seth Jones in that progression?
Where's Hayden Fleury in that progression?
Where's Jacob Trouba in that progression?
Where's Darnell Nurse? Rasmus Ristolainen? Samuel Morin? Josh Morrissey? Mirco Mueller? Julius Honka?

How many of those guys are legit top 4 or top pairing D on winning teams?

Zip.

Almost all young D either get broken in VERY slowly and earn their minutes on a good team OR get thrust into a top 4 and play heavy minutes, but on a noncontender. There aren't many Doughty's out there. Ekblad is the only recent guy I can think of to do it and the dude was the 1st overall pick.

You can argue Krug is a top 4 D on a good NHL team (depends on your definition of good) but he's 25 years old. Someone here likes to tell us that we can't judge anything until Zboril turns 21. Well, looking at the tracks of a bunch of guys like him, it's going to be 4 years after that before he's truly a top 4 guy.

I know some "don't see" the issue of the D being a problem, but there it is: We are likely 3 years away from any of these guys being good enough to be meaningful playoff minute Dmen. Best case scenario.

 

[Blowfish]

Allot of things can change in 3 years but I have to agree with DK. Don has amassed a deep prospect pool at every position. That's something to be excited about.

My gut tells me the core dudes may not be here in 3 years this includes a Chara Rask Bergeron or Krejci...Each of those players can land us a young top D man to go along with the developing core of young prospects. The bruins have options let's hope the trades work to their benefit.

Great discussion and passion on here keep it cool.

Go Jays Yes I'm a Jays fan.

 

[Oates2Neely]

...and sit back and watch the reaction of "I can't believe they traded Krejci for that" or similar. Not to mention they both have NTCs, so it was likely never an option.

Not everything is sunshine and lollipops, but the negativity around this place is getting very tiresome.

I agree about the negativity. However with this current blue line, even the sunshine & rainbows crew can agree that there's nothing to be positive about. The timing is off between the forward & d group.

I understand the current state of the league, and realize how difficult it is to acquire young top-4 dman via trades etc. It just reinforces my belief that Sweeney completely botched the Hamilton trade. Had Hamilton been forced to play here, or traded for an equal or younger dman with potential, I'd guess the Bruins blue line would be in much better shape today.

 

[Oates2Neely]

What some people seem to forget/ignore is the actual progression for most young D.

It goes like this:

1) Prospect- player gets drafted, plays another 1-2 years of JR/College hockey
2) Pro- player plays a year in the AHL
3) Pro+- Player make the NHL roster and plays on the bottom pair
4) Top 4- Player can play meaningful unsheltered minutes for a good team

Look around at some of the D prospects in the league who are/were much more highly regarded than Lauzon and Carlo and Gryz and Zboril.

Where's Dougie Hamilton now in that progression?
Where's Seth Jones in that progression?
Where's Hayden Fleury in that progression?
Where's Jacob Trouba in that progression?
Where's Darnell Nurse? Rasmus Ristolainen? Samuel Morin? Josh Morrissey? Mirco Mueller? Julius Honka?

How many of those guys are legit top 4 or top pairing D on winning teams?

Zip.

Almost all young D either get broken in VERY slowly and earn their minutes on a good team OR get thrust into a top 4 and play heavy minutes, but on a noncontender. There aren't many Doughty's out there. Ekblad is the only recent guy I can think of to do it and the dude was the 1st overall pick.

You can argue Krug is a top 4 D on a good NHL team (depends on your definition of good) but he's 25 years old. Someone here likes to tell us that we can't judge anything until Zboril turns 21. Well, looking at the tracks of a bunch of guys like him, it's going to be 4 years after that before he's truly a top 4 guy.

I know some "don't see" the issue of the D being a problem, but there it is: We are likely 3 years away from any of these guys being good enough to be meaningful playoff minute Dmen. Best case scenario.

Quoted for truth. Very rare dmen make the jump early and impact their team. At best, it'll be 2019-20 before these kids are counted on for heavy minutes

 

[BB88]

Allot of things can change in 3 years but I have to agree with DK. Don has amassed a deep prospect pool at every position. That's something to be excited about.

My gut tells me the core dudes may not be here in 3 years this includes a Chara Rask Bergeron or Krejci...Each of those players can land us a young top D man to go along with the developing core of young prospects. The bruins have options let's hope the trades work to their benefit.

Great discussion and passion on here keep it cool.

Go Jays Yes I'm a Jays fan.

The problem is also that all of the Krejci/Bergeron/Backes/Rask core guys have NMC contracts and they are getting old for that kind of value.

Everytime I read DKH's posts about Backes signing/Sweeneys drafting plan/Defense you get the impression Backes, Bergeron and Krecji are 22-26y but they aren't, they are at the end of their prime.
As others have said defense and the forward group are on completely different planets and I highly doubt Bergeron/Backes/Krejci will be good enough when those D-prospects potentially could be top4 impact players, and we have no idea if there's a #1D developing which you need.

If waiting game is the plan Sweeney needs to start drafting high end C's who can replace atleast few of them in 3-4 years and if waiting is the plan signing Backes just doesn't make any sense, should have just left Spooner as the #3C to develop and not sign that risky contract.

 

[chsb]

IMHO the Bruins got a gem in Jeremy Lauzon and his development to a top-4 D will take at most 2 years.....not 4-5 years.

 

[Dr Quincy]

IMHO the Bruins got a gem in Jeremy Lauzon and his development to a top-4 D will take at most 2 years.....not 4-5 years.

He may be a gem, but you are being optimistic. He's playing in JR this year. That's 1 year. Even if he makes the team the following year and totally skips the AHL (doubtful), he's not going to be a top 4 player that year. You are then saying that worst case scenario, a guy with 1 year as a pro player will be a top 4 guy the next season. You are giving him the same (actually a touch better) development path as Subban and a lot better of a path than Shea Weber... 2 of the better 2nd rd picked Dmen in the last decade.

Gem or not, that's a tall order.

 

[Ice Nine]

The plan seems simple but has one flaw

The plan is
1. 'Turnover the defense' into mobile 4 way skates who can retrieve pucks and defend

Implementation- they drafted Zboril Carlo Lauzon Johansen McAvoy & Lindgren in last 15 months, traded for Colin Miller, and signed previous picks 4 year college stars Matt Grzelcyk & Rob OGara

2. 200 foot/3 zone centers

They were already strong here with Bergeron and Krejci. They have the developing Ryan Spooner who has the offense already
Implementation- they have drafted high end potential top 2 line centers in Donato and JFK. I saw them both at least twice last year live with friends who know more than me on this and they both stood out.

They drafted Frederic, signed top college FA Czarnik & Acciari. I did not see Czarnik in college but I saw him at least a half dozen times in Providence including his playoff hat trick. Acciari I watched in college in the AHL and Boston. I love this kid. I read others saying he's a stiff and I dismiss it to either ignorance or idiocy depending my view of who wrote it.

They signed Backes also a 200 foot/3 zone player

3. Wingers that go to the net

Explains why they went for Sensyshyn & DeBrusk (and in full disclosure when it came to wingers here I wanted Connor & Kopecny)

But that was there idea

They have Marchand and signed Beleskey who scored 30 goals 2 years ago with Ducks with 8 in the playoffs; and have Pasta who leads the 2014 forwards in goals

They've drafted well here recently and signed who Kirk Leudeke said was the premier college FA in Vatrano.

1. Mobile D, 2. Three zone centers, 3. Wings that go to the net

The Flaw- Bruins fans have 0.0 patience and want to go to sleep and wake up with a Stanley Cup contender where the biggest concern is 'can Chris Bourque be our third line winger.'

If Jacobs is impatient I really hope he gets Jeff Gorton away from the Rangers.

I want to see Bruins fans reactions to his constant trading of first round picks and massive overpays in trades

I won't defend the next guy

As Gordon Howe likes to say be careful what you wish for

Funny thing the joke will end up being on him and most of the Bruins fans

Good post, and I understand it all, but I think the "flaw" you identify is wrong, or mostly wrong (as you also mention Jacobs). I don't think it's the fans who are impatient at all; I think fans would absolutely tolerate a rebuild, a half-rebuild/bridge, whatever, so long as the Front Office sticks with that plan, and acts consistently with it. Whatever they do, the aim is to eventually get back to contention.

The "flaw", IMHO, is an ownership group who is impatient and demands playoff hockey notwithstanding a new GM who is trying to fix problems from the past regime with a youth movement.

The flaw is the Jacobs and, due to them, likely Neely, who is probably forcing some bad moves on Sweeney he wouldn't otherwise do...

 

[roflstomper]

IMHO the Bruins got a gem in Jeremy Lauzon and his development to a top-4 D will take at most 2 years.....not 4-5 years.

He might not even be playing top 4 d in Providence in 2 years.

 

[finchster]

Last year they missed the playoffs by ONE point.

If they had made it and the way the bracket wound up they could have made it as far as the ECF against Pittsburgh - a team they SWEPT last year. Tampa was on life support in the first round but had enough to beat Detroit as they got healthier. Bruins might have beaten them. Bruins would have beaten Brooklyn. That alone must keep Cam awake at night.

The only thing I am confident about for this year is the Bruins will earn more points than Poutineville.

They missed the playoffs by one point two years in a row, but, I believe they over achieved last year and underachieved the year previous

2014-15, Krejci missed half the season and Chara was playing hurt. Find any team that can lose a 1B centre and their top defenceman playing injured all year that will play well. Not to mention the psychological issue of trading Boychuk for nothing to start the year. I can call that an anomaly.

2015-16, they missed by one point but their core was relatively healthy all year. Bergeron and Marchand had career bests in goals. Krejci was on pace for 72 points over 82 games, Eriksson had 30 goals and found real chemistry with Krejci after two seasons of futility. Four of our top six were turning in career years last year. The Bruins were 5th in goal scoring in the NHL.

We got by with career years, however, I don't see that as a viable strategy going forward. If Krejci, Bergeron, and Marchand all regress back to their career average, I don't see us close to a playoff team at all. Chara will regress and we haven't found anyone to pick up the slack.

 

[Gee Wally]

Knock off the pissing contest.

After this there will be infractions and bans.

Enough of the 5th grade bull **** already.

 

[ap3lovr]

Don Sweeney can't be happy about his off-season right now. I actually think our help on D is going to come in the form of a waiver wire pickup at this point.

 

[BigGoalBrad]

I remember when they drafted Bourque & McCrimmon and I was told McCrimmon would be a bust - no way Boston hits on both. Same with Wesley & Quintell.

I believe they all played over 1000 games in the NHL

I see Zboril & McAvoy both playing a long time so under your % the other 8 never make it.

Im mostly in agreement with you on this thread and you're sentiments towards our prospects/rebuild but this argument is flawed these comparisons are with guys who broke into the league as teenagers I don't know about Quintal but the reason the other 3 played forever was because they were logging big minutes within months of being drafted and probably played 200 games before turning 21.

'Great' players for the most part push the issue at a young age.

Even if we hit on a very high percentage of these guys their value will dip between now and when they become proven NHLers with 50 some games of experience. In terms of assets it doesn't matter who you are you're value never goes up in the AHL.

So in 1-2 years they are either fixtures and significantly superior players to guys like C Miller or K Miller (our fans are extremely tough on players and demand excellence from depth D men) on their way to all star games and 1000 NHL games....or they won;t be in the show yet, their value will be lower than it is now, and in terms of helping to acquire a replacement for Z will be throw ins like the're Seth Griffith. There just isn't much middle ground.

Our fanbase has been killing our defensemen since the fans came back and Habs games weren't 50% red with tons of fights in the balcony I heard Wideman get booed by his own fans when he was leading the team in playoff scoring McQuaid was our best defender last year before his concussion and half of this board would buy him out of they could etc etc.


None of our prospects are untouchable to me if they are used to get a young Chara replacement in the next 12 months before camp starts for the 17/18 season. Clocks already ticking on anyone who can't make the team this year with extended looks due to the World Cup. 1st round picks lose their value fast.

Debrusk and Senny are where Jordan Caron was the year after he was drafted when he started the season on Bergeron's line on a Cup winning team. Not saying their value will be lower in a few weeks if they don't make it but its its Nov 2017 and they haven't played a regular season game for the Boston Bruins those dimes will be nickles and not enough to trade for a good youngster to replace Big Z. Yes, I will be worried if those 2 guys have stinkers at camp.

Jackie Bradley Jr still won a job soon after being drafted to be allowed to struggle and hit .200 for a full season. X didn't get sent to Portland/Pawtucket when Steven Drew was moronically brought back he played 3rd. Noone needs to force the issue this year but training camp 2017 is different any highly drafted player who can't take a job from a Morrow/McQuaid/Liles/Hayes/Nash next year will have a lower trade value than they do right now. The depth is nice because we can trade 3-4 prospects and still have a great system.

 

[chsb]

He might not even be playing top 4 d in Providence in 2 years.

The only thing I do on a consistent basis is watch Junior hockey......and the Memorial Cups.
Lauzon showed already to me the composure of an NHLer and he is as gifted as the best 1st rounders I have seen on D in the last 19 years.
This si may be a case of a Bergeron #2 pn D.

I saw Girard play at 19, Beauchemin at 19 and this guy is more complete for the same age level.

 

[Blowfish]

The only thing I do on a consistent basis is watch Junior hockey......and the Memorial Cups.
Lauzon showed already to me the composure of an NHLer and he is as gifted as the best 1st rounders I have seen on D in the last 19 years.
This si may be a case of a Bergeron #2 pn D.

I saw Girard play at 19, Beauchemin at 19 and this guy is more complete for the same age level.

I was very impressed with Lauzon at the rookie tourney in Buffalo. He stood out over everyone else on the ice for both teams however Arnesson came a close 2nd (which many forget).

 

[DKH]

The only thing I do on a consistent basis is watch Junior hockey......and the Memorial Cups.
Lauzon showed already to me the composure of an NHLer and he is as gifted as the best 1st rounders I have seen on D in the last 19 years.
This si may be a case of a Bergeron #2 pn D.

I saw Girard play at 19, Beauchemin at 19 and this guy is more complete for the same age level.

Woodlief the owner of Red Line told me he and his scouts covered the Q said if he wasn't the best defenseman he saw he was in the top two. He said in this draft he would have been a no doubt first rounder

But the poster probably has seen him more and is sharper than the scouts so I'd go with his assessment he won't even be a top 4 in the AHL

 

[ODAAT]

no way all picks wind up being on the big roster making significant contributions but I look at the young prospects on D and while history tells me, the likelihood of 4 of them being full time contributors isn`t realistic, I just can`t shake the thought that this group has the makings of something special. There appears to be a plethora of some really solid talent there. I`ll state it now, I bet that in a few years, of the young prospects on D this team has, 2/3rd`s of our future D will be derived from this group.

McAvoy
Carlo
Zboril and Lindgren are my bets

 

[rudos1]

The thing with prospects and draftees is that in the end it's a crap shoot. I remember an article about the world's best financial advisors picking investment funds vs monkeys who would point out funds from a board of them at random and the monkeys out picked the experts multiple years in a row. I HATE to have to rely so heavily on what might be coming down the line. There can be a balance on guys who can go now vs the future and I really believe this FO doesn't have it and at least part of it is pressure from the owners to keep us a playoff team every year and a GM who seems to only care about future development. Bad recipe to me. I expect another not quite make the playoffs year unless some first class defense comes our way soon and not prospects some proven player or players..

 

[chsb]

Woodlief the owner of Red Line told me he and his scouts covered the Q said if he wasn't the best defenseman he saw he was in the top two. He said in this draft he would have been a no doubt first rounder

But the poster probably has seen him more and is sharper than the scouts so I'd go with his assessment he won't even be a top 4 in the AHL

WILL he play AHL?

I see a 1 year stint maybe.....

NHL is the direction of this guy.

 

[chsb]

no way all picks wind up being on the big roster making significant contributions but I look at the young prospects on D and while history tells me, the likelihood of 4 of them being full time contributors isn`t realistic, I just can`t shake the thought that this group has the makings of something special. There appears to be a plethora of some really solid talent there. I`ll state it now, I bet that in a few years, of the young prospects on D this team has, 2/3rd`s of our future D will be derived from this group.

McAvoy
Carlo
Zboril and Lindgren are my bets

Sorry but Lauzon's upside is way above Zboril's.

 

[DKH]

WILL he play AHL?

I see a 1 year stint maybe.....

NHL is the direction of this guy.

Would not surprise me if he comes close to making team out of camp

One of these guys drafted in 2015 will be if Lauzon Zboril Carlo whoever will get a very long look

I expect him to be a very good top 4 on a Cup worthy team and I'm not talking Calder

 

[Therick67]

Would not surprise me if he comes close to making team out of camp

One of these guys drafted in 2015 will be if Lauzon Zboril Carlo whoever will get a very long look

I expect him to be a very good top 4 on a Cup worthy team and I'm not talking Calder

Some of that is due to the simple fact, that this defense isn't very good.

I hope whatever they do, they don't rush guys just because.

I'm optimistic about these prospects, but lets let them develop and do it the right way.

 

[Therick67]

What some people seem to forget/ignore is the actual progression for most young D.

It goes like this:

1) Prospect- player gets drafted, plays another 1-2 years of JR/College hockey
2) Pro- player plays a year in the AHL
3) Pro+- Player make the NHL roster and plays on the bottom pair
4) Top 4- Player can play meaningful unsheltered minutes for a good team

Look around at some of the D prospects in the league who are/were much more highly regarded than Lauzon and Carlo and Gryz and Zboril.

Where's Dougie Hamilton now in that progression?
Where's Seth Jones in that progression?
Where's Hayden Fleury in that progression?
Where's Jacob Trouba in that progression?
Where's Darnell Nurse? Rasmus Ristolainen? Samuel Morin? Josh Morrissey? Mirco Mueller? Julius Honka?

How many of those guys are legit top 4 or top pairing D on winning teams?

Zip.

Almost all young D either get broken in VERY slowly and earn their minutes on a good team OR get thrust into a top 4 and play heavy minutes, but on a noncontender. There aren't many Doughty's out there. Ekblad is the only recent guy I can think of to do it and the dude was the 1st overall pick.

You can argue Krug is a top 4 D on a good NHL team (depends on your definition of good) but he's 25 years old. Someone here likes to tell us that we can't judge anything until Zboril turns 21. Well, looking at the tracks of a bunch of guys like him, it's going to be 4 years after that before he's truly a top 4 guy.

I know some "don't see" the issue of the D being a problem, but there it is: We are likely 3 years away from any of these guys being good enough to be meaningful playoff minute Dmen. Best case scenario.

Excellent post.

This team is caught in between right now. Rushing guys isn't the way to go.

This team wouldn't play C. Miller and Morrow on a regular basis, now you're gonna put 19/20 year olds in the lineup?

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

But if they had made the playoffs they would have had the gorilla off their backs. They would have given Tampa a series and then who knows?

Hate to break it to you, but stuff like this only gets said so it makes the person who wrote it feel better. It makes an absolute failure not feel like such a failure when you can blame the lack of success on just one minor slipup (that being the travesty that is game 82).

The truth: this team didn't deserve the playoffs. It was predictable, given the defense, from the start of last season that we couldn't play legitimate playoff hockey. In the past seven or eight years, it's literally a given that to win the Cup, you need to be one of the very top teams in GA. The Bruins were way down the line.

The "who knows?" motto is I'm afraid what management is applying as a professional strategy. There's this implication that "making the playoffs" is the ultimate goal and four seven game series are somehow a crapshoot. The closest thing to a Cinderella run in recent years is the Bruins and that 2011 team was very good. As was the team in 2013. This team is clearly not anywhere close to that level. Even if they make the playoffs, they're far outmatched in so many different categories that suggesting they "could make some noise"/"who knows?" is hugely ignorant to me. Again, it's something that gets tossed around because well, who can argue something that didn't happen and theory. It holds absolutely no real weight or value.

 

[BruinsBtn]

What some people seem to forget/ignore is the actual progression for most young D.

It goes like this:

1) Prospect- player gets drafted, plays another 1-2 years of JR/College hockey
2) Pro- player plays a year in the AHL
3) Pro+- Player make the NHL roster and plays on the bottom pair
4) Top 4- Player can play meaningful unsheltered minutes for a good team

Look around at some of the D prospects in the league who are/were much more highly regarded than Lauzon and Carlo and Gryz and Zboril.

Where's Dougie Hamilton now in that progression?
Where's Seth Jones in that progression?
Where's Hayden Fleury in that progression?
Where's Jacob Trouba in that progression?
Where's Darnell Nurse? Rasmus Ristolainen? Samuel Morin? Josh Morrissey? Mirco Mueller? Julius Honka?

How many of those guys are legit top 4 or top pairing D on winning teams?

Zip.

Almost all young D either get broken in VERY slowly and earn their minutes on a good team OR get thrust into a top 4 and play heavy minutes, but on a noncontender. There aren't many Doughty's out there. Ekblad is the only recent guy I can think of to do it and the dude was the 1st overall pick.

You can argue Krug is a top 4 D on a good NHL team (depends on your definition of good) but he's 25 years old. Someone here likes to tell us that we can't judge anything until Zboril turns 21. Well, looking at the tracks of a bunch of guys like him, it's going to be 4 years after that before he's truly a top 4 guy.

I know some "don't see" the issue of the D being a problem, but there it is: We are likely 3 years away from any of these guys being good enough to be meaningful playoff minute Dmen. Best case scenario.

This is a good point. The problems with the defense are because of the 2009-2011 drafts.

2009- Jordan Caron. Next two defensemen drafted were Dylan Olsen and Simon Depres.

2010 - 2nd rd. Jared Knight. Next two defensemen drafted were Alex Petrovic and Justin Faulk.

2011 - 2nd rd. Koko. Next two defensemen drafted were Joel Edmundson and Xavier Ouellet.

Add in any of those guys (except Ouellet, although he still has potential) and the Bruins defense has one less hole to fill.