Nac Mac Feegle
wee & free
- Jun 10, 2011
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To be honest, there is no wrong pick in that 4-10 group. Whoever we get at 5 will be fine.
I get it. It was more a comment on the fact that the OP said a partner for Chabot.JBD and Thomson play the right side. Jaros plays the right side. And Brannstrom prefers the right side. Zub plays the right side too. Plus, a lot of questions about who fits with the team long-term still.
Sanderson's as a rock on our left side along side Chabot could be one of the defining elements of this team a few years down the road. If the Sens see in Sanderson what a growing number of scouts do, then I'm all for him at #5.
The Ottawa Senators board overates Sanderson more than any other fan base out there. While massively underrating Drysdale. Its fascinating to read. So many fake narratives that have been picked up by posters just based on how many times its been repeated. Specifically this notion that Drysdale is an offensive d man only. Thats not how he plays.... His game is built like Niedermayer. The argument that the sens need to take Sanderson because thats the type of player the sens 'need' is exactly how you dont build a winner. Frankly at this point we dont know what the sens need they have so much in the pipe line and so few established players that drafting for need at this point would be a massive error. They should be picking the best player available. In this instance when comparing these two players its almost unanimous, Drysdale is better right now and projects to be a top pair d man that devours minutes making it look easy. I honestly feel like people have Drysdale and Sanderson confused with one another when im reading this form. If you want versatility Drysdale plays both sides with ease, his hockey IQ, skating an maturity make him cant miss.We have so many picks and assets, we're in the position where we can just take the guy we like, even if it's a few picks higher than expected.
With that said, I don't think there's a chance Sanderson lasts until 8-9. I think there's a distinct possibility Detroit even takes him at 4.
The Ottawa Senators board overates Sanderson more than any other fan base out there. While massively underrating Drysdale. Its fascinating to read. So many fake narratives that have been picked up by posters just based on how many times its been repeated. Specifically this notion that Drysdale is an offensive d man only. Thats not how he plays.... His game is built like Niedermayer. The argument that the sens need to take Sanderson because thats the type of player the sens 'need' is exactly how you dont build a winner. Frankly at this point we dont know what the sens need they have so much in the pipe line and so few established players that drafting for need at this point would be a massive error. They should be picking the best player available. In this instance when comparing these two players its almost unanimous, Drysdale is better right now and projects to be a top pair d man that devours minutes making it look easy. I honestly feel like people have Drysdale and Sanderson confused with one another when im reading this form. If you want versatility Drysdale plays both sides with ease, his hockey IQ, skating an maturity make him cant miss.
Also after the 3 spot its not a tier that drops off at 7 it drops off after 12. There are 8 players that can get picked from 4 to 12 in just about any order.
The Ottawa Senators board overates Sanderson more than any other fan base out there. While massively underrating Drysdale. Its fascinating to read. So many fake narratives that have been picked up by posters just based on how many times its been repeated. Specifically this notion that Drysdale is an offensive d man only. Thats not how he plays.... His game is built like Niedermayer. The argument that the sens need to take Sanderson because thats the type of player the sens 'need' is exactly how you dont build a winner. Frankly at this point we dont know what the sens need they have so much in the pipe line and so few established players that drafting for need at this point would be a massive error. They should be picking the best player available. In this instance when comparing these two players its almost unanimous, Drysdale is better right now and projects to be a top pair d man that devours minutes making it look easy. I honestly feel like people have Drysdale and Sanderson confused with one another when im reading this form. If you want versatility Drysdale plays both sides with ease, his hockey IQ, skating an maturity make him cant miss.
Also after the 3 spot its not a tier that drops off at 7 it drops off after 12. There are 8 players that can get picked from 4 to 12 in just about any order.
Most posters on this board dont appear to have Drysdale ahead of Sanderson, just read this thread.... If not they are moving away from picking the best player available to picking for need. Which I think I explained why moving away from the BPA mind set at this point for the Senators doesnt make alot of sense.This is a bit of an odd post;
Most posters on this board have Drysdale ahead of Sanderson, most have him top 5 in fact. How you get that they are massively underatting Drysdale i really don't know... This is made all the stranger when you go on to say after 3rd oa this draft doesn't have a tier from 4th oa that drops off at 7, but rather a tier that extends to 12th... How can two players nearly universally both ranked in the top ten have one player overatted and another massively underatted when both are in the same tier? How can people who universally have Drysdale in the 4 to 7 range be massively underatting him? Should he be top 3 in your mind?
Drysdale's defensive game is good, i agree with you there, and if he reaches his peak i see a player similar to Neidermayer, but anytime you have a smaller dman there is risk that he won't be able to translate his defensive game to a bigger faster league. He is never going to provide the physical presence on the back end though regardless of how he translates. All that said, I don't think acknowledging Sanderson is more advanced defensively and projects to be the better defensive player means people are underatting Drysdale defensively.
Most posters on this board dont appear to have Drysdale ahead of Sanderson, just read this thread.... If not they are moving away from picking the best player available to picking for need. Which I think I explained why moving away from the BPA mind set at this point for the Senators doesnt make alot of sense.
There is a distinct top 3 players that are pretty unanimously set in those spots.
I have Drysdale firmly in 4th, however there are a enough ratings and opinions that he could fall out of the top 5 or 6. He is about the only player out of the top 4 to 12 that I think you can guarantee he gets picked in the top 7. The rest after him are all fairly interchangeable in the top 12. Personally I do think there is a drop off after him, where the next 8 players could go in any order. Perfetti, Sanderson, Holtz, Quinn, Rossi, Raymond, Lundell and Askarov fall into that grouping. Some players are less likely to fall as far as 12 but it could go in any order.
I think the top 4 is locked in.
Mystery-Lafreniere
LA- Stutzle
Ott-Byfield
Det-Perfetti
After that I see Drysdale or Raymond to Ottawa as most likely, but like Bert said I could see many other options as well. I would say I see no chance for Lundell or Askarov to be picked there.
Lundell is a safe pick .. I am not writing him off as the Sens pick at 5. This is just the kind of thing they could do imo
Most posters on this board dont appear to have Drysdale ahead of Sanderson, just read this thread....
This right here appears to be the problem, you are confusing a vocal minority with the majority.Most posters on this board dont appear to have Drysdale ahead of Sanderson, just read this thread....
Player | Jamie Drysdale | Jake Sanderson | |||
SAT | 68.41 | 68.69 | Sanderson | SAT | All shot attempts for by team. |
SATA | 58.91 | 45.1 | Sanderson | SATA | All shot attempts against by team. |
HDSAT | 13.3 | 13.18 | Sanderson | HDSAT | All high danger shot attempts for by team. |
HDSATA | 8.08 | 5.55 | Sanderson | HDSATA | All high danger shot attempts against by team. |
MDSAT | 15.2 | 11.1 | MDSAT | All medium danger shot attempts for by team. | |
MDSATA | 18.53 | 8.33 | Sanderson | MDSATA | All medium danger shot attempts against by team. |
LDSAT | 39.9 | 44.41 | Sanderson | LDSAT | All low danger shot attempts for by team. |
LDSATA | 32.3 | 31.22 | Sanderson | LDSATA | All low danger shot attempts against by team. |
PassThreat% | 91.67% | 57.14% | PassThreat% | Percentage of OffThreat deriving from dangerous pass attempts. | |
OffThreat | 5.7 | 9.71 | Sanderson | OffThreat | Individual high+medium danger shot attempts with dangerous pass attempts/60. |
ixG/60 | 0.287 | 0.703 | Sanderson | ixG/60 | Rudimentary model of individual shot attempt selection leading to goals. |
xGF% | 55.50% | 64.62% | Sanderson | xGF% | % of expected goals by the team while the player is on the ice |
xGF/60 | 4.403 | 4.168 | xGF/60 | Rudimentary model of team shot attempt selection leading to goals for | |
xGA/60 | 3.529 | 2.282 | Sanderson | xGA/60 | Rudimentary model of opponent shot attempt selection leading to goals against |
iHMDSAT | 0.48 | 4.16 | Sanderson | iHMDSAT | All individual High or Medium danger shots by player |
iHDSAT | 0 | 1.39 | Sanderson | iHDSAT | All individual high danger shots by player. |
iMDSAT | 0.48 | 2.78 | Sanderson | iMDSAT | All individual medium danger shots by player. |
iLDSAT | 12.35 | 11.8 | iLDSAT | All individual low danger shots by player. | |
PassAtt | 79.33 | 100.61 | PassAtt | Total attempted passes by player. | |
C.Pass | 59.38 | 77.71 | Sanderson | Pass | Completed passes by player. |
D.Pass | 5.23 | 5.55 | Sanderson | D.Pass | Number of pass attempts directed at high or medium danger areas |
GF | 1.9 | 2.08 | Sanderson | GF | Even strength team goals for |
GA | 1.9 | 0.69 | Sanderson | GA | Even strength team goals against |
COZT | 34.2 | 43.02 | Sanderson | COZT | Controlled offensive zone transitions. |
CDZT | 19.48 | 14.57 | CDZT | Controlled defensive zone transitions. | |
OZT | 54.16 | 57.59 | Sanderson | OZT | Total offensive zone transitions. |
DZT | 43.71 | 42.33 | DZT | Total defensive zone transitions. | |
DBLT | 68.41 | 68 | DBLT | Defensive blueline transitions (i.e. all transitions involving the defensive blueline) | |
OBLT | 29.45 | 31.92 | OBLT | Offensive blueline transitions (i.e. all transitions involving the offensive blueline) | |
ODBLT | 35.63 | 37.47 | Sanderson | ODBLT | Offensive defensive blueline transitions (i.e. transitions moving offensively across the defensive blueline) |
OOBLT | 18.53 | 20.12 | Sanderson | OOBLT | Offensive offensive blueline transitions (i.e. transitions moving offensively across the offensive blueline) |
DOBLT | 10.93 | 11.8 | DOBLT | Defensive offensive blueline transitions (i.e. transitions moving defensively across the offensive blueline) | |
DDBLT | 32.78 | 30.53 | Sanderson | DDBLT | Defensive defensive blueline transitions (i.e. transitions moving defensively across the defensive blueline) |
DZExitC | 24.7 | 30.53 | Sanderson | DZExitC | Defensive zone exits performed with control of the puck (either on player's stick, or passed to teammate across a blueline) |
OZEntryC | 9.5 | 12.49 | Sanderson | OZEntryC | Offensive zone entries performed with control of the puck (either on player's stick, or passed to teammate across a blueline) |
DZExitUnC | 10.93 | 6.94 | Sanderson | DZExitUnC | Defensive zone exits performed without control of the puck (either knocked off puck or missed passes) |
OZEntryUnC | 9.03 | 7.63 | Sanderson | OZEntryUnC | Offensive zone entries performed without control of the puck (either knocked off puck or missed passes) |
OZExitUnC | 6.18 | 6.24 | OZExitUnC | Offensive zone exits by opponent performed without control of puck (only where player is directly involved) | |
DZEntryUnC | 18.05 | 21.51 | Sanderson | DZEntryUnC | Defensive zone exits by opponent performed without control of puck (only where player is directly involved) |
OZExitC | 4.75 | 5.55 | OZExitC | Offensive zone exits by opponent performed with control of puck (only where player is directly involved) | |
DZEntryC | 14.73 | 9.02 | Sanderson | DZEntryC | Defensive zone exits by opponent performed with control of puck (only where player is directly involved) |
i think the main issue with drysdale is that we question his offensive upside. no the opposite. i dont know how muchniedermayer there is. theres quite a bit of " Off the boards and out" in his game.The Ottawa Senators board overates Sanderson more than any other fan base out there. While massively underrating Drysdale. Its fascinating to read. So many fake narratives that have been picked up by posters just based on how many times its been repeated. Specifically this notion that Drysdale is an offensive d man only. Thats not how he plays.... His game is built like Niedermayer. The argument that the sens need to take Sanderson because thats the type of player the sens 'need' is exactly how you dont build a winner. Frankly at this point we dont know what the sens need they have so much in the pipe line and so few established players that drafting for need at this point would be a massive error. They should be picking the best player available. In this instance when comparing these two players its almost unanimous, Drysdale is better right now and projects to be a top pair d man that devours minutes making it look easy. I honestly feel like people have Drysdale and Sanderson confused with one another when im reading this form. If you want versatility Drysdale plays both sides with ease, his hockey IQ, skating an maturity make him cant miss.
Also after the 3 spot its not a tier that drops off at 7 it drops off after 12. There are 8 players that can get picked from 4 to 12 in just about any order.
whats strange is that, the person who tracks all this still has Sanderson in the latter part of top 10 or maybe even just outside because he doesnt think the value is there with Sanderson who wil probably be a solid d man. but i mean th enumbers suggest he can be much more than that.Some analytics on Drysdale and Sanderson.
If you don't like them you can just right them off as meaningless numbers that don't stand up to the universally standardized eye test.
This Per/60 data is publicly available from Scouch .. He tracks these players for 7 games and records many of these metrics. I have Marked in where Sanderson's tracked data within their specific 7 game samples is actually better than Drysdale's. I did not put this up here to degrade Drysdale who I would still pick ahead of Sanderson personally but .. when people say its closer than you think , or Sanderson may actually be ahead .. these kind of metrics may be influencing some of those thoughts or perhaps they are consistent with what they are seeing.
You can also find some "arts and crafts" charting Tableau Public[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Player Jamie Drysdale Jake Sanderson SAT 68.41 68.69 Sanderson SAT All shot attempts for by team. SATA 58.91 45.1 Sanderson SATA All shot attempts against by team. HDSAT 13.3 13.18 Sanderson HDSAT All high danger shot attempts for by team. HDSATA 8.08 5.55 Sanderson HDSATA All high danger shot attempts against by team. MDSAT 15.2 11.1 MDSAT All medium danger shot attempts for by team. MDSATA 18.53 8.33 Sanderson MDSATA All medium danger shot attempts against by team. LDSAT 39.9 44.41 Sanderson LDSAT All low danger shot attempts for by team. LDSATA 32.3 31.22 Sanderson LDSATA All low danger shot attempts against by team. PassThreat% 91.67% 57.14% PassThreat% Percentage of OffThreat deriving from dangerous pass attempts. OffThreat 5.7 9.71 Sanderson OffThreat Individual high+medium danger shot attempts with dangerous pass attempts/60. ixG/60 0.287 0.703 Sanderson ixG/60 Rudimentary model of individual shot attempt selection leading to goals. xGF% 55.50% 64.62% Sanderson xGF% % of expected goals by the team while the player is on the ice xGF/60 4.403 4.168 xGF/60 Rudimentary model of team shot attempt selection leading to goals for xGA/60 3.529 2.282 Sanderson xGA/60 Rudimentary model of opponent shot attempt selection leading to goals against iHMDSAT 0.48 4.16 Sanderson iHMDSAT All individual High or Medium danger shots by player iHDSAT 0 1.39 Sanderson iHDSAT All individual high danger shots by player. iMDSAT 0.48 2.78 Sanderson iMDSAT All individual medium danger shots by player. iLDSAT 12.35 11.8 iLDSAT All individual low danger shots by player. PassAtt 79.33 100.61 PassAtt Total attempted passes by player. C.Pass 59.38 77.71 Sanderson Pass Completed passes by player. D.Pass 5.23 5.55 Sanderson D.Pass Number of pass attempts directed at high or medium danger areas GF 1.9 2.08 Sanderson GF Even strength team goals for GA 1.9 0.69 Sanderson GA Even strength team goals against COZT 34.2 43.02 Sanderson COZT Controlled offensive zone transitions. CDZT 19.48 14.57 CDZT Controlled defensive zone transitions. OZT 54.16 57.59 Sanderson OZT Total offensive zone transitions. DZT 43.71 42.33 DZT Total defensive zone transitions. DBLT 68.41 68 DBLT Defensive blueline transitions (i.e. all transitions involving the defensive blueline) OBLT 29.45 31.92 OBLT Offensive blueline transitions (i.e. all transitions involving the offensive blueline) ODBLT 35.63 37.47 Sanderson ODBLT Offensive defensive blueline transitions (i.e. transitions moving offensively across the defensive blueline) OOBLT 18.53 20.12 Sanderson OOBLT Offensive offensive blueline transitions (i.e. transitions moving offensively across the offensive blueline) DOBLT 10.93 11.8 DOBLT Defensive offensive blueline transitions (i.e. transitions moving defensively across the offensive blueline) DDBLT 32.78 30.53 Sanderson DDBLT Defensive defensive blueline transitions (i.e. transitions moving defensively across the defensive blueline) DZExitC 24.7 30.53 Sanderson DZExitC Defensive zone exits performed with control of the puck (either on player's stick, or passed to teammate across a blueline) OZEntryC 9.5 12.49 Sanderson OZEntryC Offensive zone entries performed with control of the puck (either on player's stick, or passed to teammate across a blueline) DZExitUnC 10.93 6.94 Sanderson DZExitUnC Defensive zone exits performed without control of the puck (either knocked off puck or missed passes) OZEntryUnC 9.03 7.63 Sanderson OZEntryUnC Offensive zone entries performed without control of the puck (either knocked off puck or missed passes) OZExitUnC 6.18 6.24 OZExitUnC Offensive zone exits by opponent performed without control of puck (only where player is directly involved) DZEntryUnC 18.05 21.51 Sanderson DZEntryUnC Defensive zone exits by opponent performed without control of puck (only where player is directly involved) OZExitC 4.75 5.55 OZExitC Offensive zone exits by opponent performed with control of puck (only where player is directly involved) DZEntryC 14.73 9.02 Sanderson DZEntryC Defensive zone exits by opponent performed with control of puck (only where player is directly involved)
He has been low on him forever. Never even had him in his top 70 in November. He’s been reluctant to his ranking by actual scouts all year.whats strange is that, the person who tracks all this still has Sanderson in the latter part of top 10 or maybe even just outside because he doesnt think the value is there with Sanderson who wil probably be a solid d man. but i mean th enumbers suggest he can be much more than that.
agreed .. I think its a good question to askwhats strange is that, the person who tracks all this still has Sanderson in the latter part of top 10 or maybe even just outside because he doesnt think the value is there with Sanderson who wil probably be a solid d man. but i mean th enumbers suggest he can be much more than that.
75% were upset they passed on Zadina. At the end of the day, even if some players picked after 5 become better, as long as the pick at 5 becomes a star for this team, it doesn’t matter.This 5th overall pick is going to be a real challenge for Dorion and his crew. From the one perspective, it appears to be a "can't miss" situation where you pick any one of these players and you hit a home-run.
However, any player he picks will most likely upset half the fan base as there are so many options to choose from that most people have a very different directive on who is the 5th best player in the draft.
The only more difficult position to he drafting from this year is 4th as Detroit will basically have everyone to choose from once (hopefully) Byfield and Stutzle are gone.
This could very well be one of those drafts where the #6 or #7 drafted player ends up the bigger star player long term than the #4 or #5 and that is where the challenge lies.
75% were upset they passed on Zadina. At the end of the day, even if some players picked after 5 become better, as long as the pick at 5 becomes a star for this team, it doesn’t matter.
I dont know it seems most of us would be happy with anyone of Drysdale Rossi Raymond Sanderson or Perfetti. To a lesser extent Quinn and Lundell too.
A lot of good options, everybody has preferences but that doesnt mean you dislike the other players.
Wish we knew the Sens top 5.. at least 3 is easy with Byfield/Stutzle lol
Would you say all of the players ranked 4-12 have an equal chance of becoming a bust? Meaning the player selected at 4 or 5 could very well end up a bust, regardless of who that player is?
My point is, no matter who we select at #5, there is a strong chance the player we that we do not select ends up better. And I realize this goes for any draft as most of the time beyond the top 2 it is basically a gamble but, I cannot recall a draft in recent memory where there were this many players that were interchangeable between 4 and 10.
Generally, in most drafts, you will have tiers that are much smaller than what we have this year. The 2018 draft for example, that you brought up regarding Tkachhuk vs Zadina, had select few players that were basically a given to go 3-5, and then another group 6-10 and so on.
This year for example the debate is not "Does Detroit select Drysdale or Raymond", but rather "Does Detroit select Raymond, Drysdale, Perfetti, Rossi or Sanderson?" Same goes for Ottawa.
In 2018, when Ottawa took Tkachuk, it was basically a matter of when the next team takes Zadina, this year we do not have that at all.