Prospect Info: 5th Overall Pick 2020: Who Do The Sens Draft

[BondraTime]

Let’s try it this way

Raymond struggled n the SEL and we can’t be sure if his body will allow him to put on weight

Perfetti is an average skater, is small, May project as a winger and has had motivation issues.

Drysdale is fairly small and while he is an excellent skater there are questions if his offensive game has NHL upside.

Sanderson is an excellent skater and has size but has shown limited offensive potential.

It’s easy to nitpick about all of the 4-8 players but in reality it’s too much time to analyze. They should have been drafted, finished Dev camp and started getting ready for rookie tournament in a month.

Pretty much, every one of the guys has discussion points on why or why not we should pick them, positive and negative

 

[bert]

Bert you often speak as if you know the Sens draft list. Can you confirm once and for all, is it your opinion or not.

I was told by someone reliable the top 3 and thats it. I have also said this many times, you've tried to call me out a few times for this exact conversation. My answer will be the same.

I dont see the sens drafting Rossi or Raymond at 5 rightly or wrongly this scouting staff and management group doesnt draft that small when they have high picks with comparable players available.

 

[GCK]

I was told by someone reliable the top 3 and thats it. I have also said this many times, you've tried to call me out a few times for this exact conversation. My answer will be the same.

I dont see the sens drafting Rossi or Raymond at 5 rightly or wrongly this scouting staff and management group doesnt draft that small when they have high picks with comparable players available.

Not trying to call you out. Just looking to confirm whethett t it’s your opinion or from someone in the org. This is the first time you have answered so it’s all good.

 

[aragorn]

There isn't one BPA among any of those 4-7

Bingo - and I would go as high as 12. I think one or two of those in that group could fall on draft day, someone always does.

 

[aragorn]

I like Barron but have a bad opinion on Schneider.

Most polls have Schneider ranked higher, but he might not be there when the Sens pick. I think Barron could go closer to 33rd OA & they might have to trade up a few spots to get him. They need a bigger RD who is better than Jaros who can challenge Thomson for a top 4 pairing spot. They have the assets to target him late in the 1st or early 2nd rd but there are also some good RD later on in this draft who could surprise.

 

[JD1]

1/3 of Rossi’s total points came against the 3 worst teams in the league. 37 points in 11 games.

He is a fantastic offensive guy, a warrior on the ice and fearless, but his numbers are absolutely inflated this year, as someone pointed out in a thread on the main board, by his games against Kingston, Niagara and North Bay all being in the same conference.

83 points in the other 45 games is still fantastic, but is in line with guys like Perfetti rather than being heads and tails above others.

Yes, I know eliminating games against teams isn’t an exact science, nor should it be used to discredit a season like Rossi had which was absolutely incredible, but it is certainly worth looking at in the least.

You'd REALLY need to study that issue to understand why his points are inflated. It may well be that it's because the PMDs have an easier time PMDing against weaker opposition. Or that the weaker teams were taking more penalties against the power house leading to more PP time. Or more puck battles being won by the powerhouse in the O zone leading to more O zone time.

I personally have no clue because I haven't watched the 67s.

But from years of playing the game, it's just as likely if not more that it's his lesser skilled teammates thriving against weak opposition that creates more opportunity for him to thrive.

 

[DrSense]

I dissagree and I am sure the sens do. The concensus does as well. You like Rossi alot, which is understandable there is alot to like from a statistical perspective.

.

There is no consensus at #4, even among the Sens scouts. The Sens will have a final list, but it won't be unanimous once you get passed the first few picks, and never as been. And none of the draft lists are done btw.

Teams have re-opened the lists given there is a good chance hockey will be played before the draft. A lot can change in 7 or 8 months, as we've seen in draft years, so how players play this Fall will absolutely impact the draft. It's going to really strange, because some likely won't be playing before the draft.

It's fun to guess at who we'll take, but the Sens don't know at this point.

 

[bert]

You'd REALLY need to study that issue to understand why his points are inflated. It may well be that it's because the PMDs have an easier time PMDing against weaker opposition. Or that the weaker teams were taking more penalties against the power house leading to more PP time. Or more puck battles being won by the powerhouse in the O zone leading to more O zone time.

I personally have no clue because I haven't watched the 67s.

But from years of playing the game, it's just as likely if not more that it's his lesser skilled teammates thriving against weak opposition that creates more opportunity for him to thrive.

I have to say though the eye test matched his production for sure even if you werent looking at the score sheet. He didnt visibly drive the play against the good teams like he did against the poor teams. The same in the playoff run the year before. Thats what has put the doubt in my mind which emphasizes my concerns about Rossi's game breaking ability. The raw physical tools worry me, I am not sure he will consistently he able to create separation with NHL defenders. Or he may become predictable to play against because he doesnt have the strength or speed to beat players one on one. He reminds me alot of Marty St Pierre, little guy built like a fire hydrant with incredible vision and puck skills they both use the long stick too. Granted this era is a way better era to play in for that style player and Rossi is better at the same age but i do see alot of similarities stylistically. Rossi is obviously much better, he is a better skater for sure, just see similarities in style of play and how they created offense. Again i wouldnt be dissapointed if the sens pick Rossi I just have some doubts. Maybe because I watched him so much and I have over scouted him.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Also sounds like everything Lafreniere can do that has been mentioned a lot over the last yr & he's a winger. I think Stutzle has the skill & talent as you say that he could play centre in the NHL, but I can't help think he would be better on the wing in the NHL.

Speaking strictly for myself, I prefer a big centre who can control & protect the space down the middle, win board battles & faceoffs & occupy the front of the net in the o-zone. Having a playmaking wizard on the wing gives him more space with a bigger centreman & a goal scoring finisher on the other side. To each their own, but it could also depend on what the team requires more if they already have the centres they want. It should be interesting where these guys end up & which positions they eventually end up playing.

well i suppose, TECHNICALLY, lafraniere can play center too. so can Holtz, theres no law against it.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Comparing Stützle to Ceci I can kind of understand - it’s the ‘all the tools but lacking a belt/box to put them in’ argument.

I haven’t watched a single second of Stützle but the reports of him over handling the puck and forcing passes one the larger ice surface concern me. I’m sure it’s nothing - but transitioning to the smaller sheet of ice will give him even less time to make decisions.

i wasnt comparing the players just to clear that up.

 

[GCK]

I have to say though the eye test matched his production for sure even if you werent looking at the score sheet. He didnt visibly drive the play against the good teams like he did against the poor teams. The same in the playoff run the year before. Thats what has put the doubt in my mind which emphasizes my concerns about Rossi's game breaking ability. The raw physical tools worry me, I am not sure he will consistently he able to create separation with NHL defenders. Or he may become predictable to play against because he doesnt have the strength or speed to beat players one on one. He reminds me alot of Marty St Pierre, little guy built like a fire hydrant with incredible vision and puck skills they both use the long stick too. Granted this era is a way better era to play in for that style player and Rossi is better at the same age but i do see alot of similarities stylistically. Rossi is obviously much better, he is a better skater for sure, just see similarities in style of play and how they created offense. Again i wouldnt be dissapointed if the sens pick Rossi I just have some doubts. Maybe because I watched him so much and I have over scouted him.

Bert, did you not find that Bear used Rossi as a matchup player more against better lines. I feel he was the most trusted centre defensively which may explain his reduced numbers against the best teams. Having said that the longer this summer drags on, the more I think I’d prefer Quinn to Rossi.

 

[BondraTime]

You'd REALLY need to study that issue to understand why his points are inflated. It may well be that it's because the PMDs have an easier time PMDing against weaker opposition. Or that the weaker teams were taking more penalties against the power house leading to more PP time. Or more puck battles being won by the powerhouse in the O zone leading to more O zone time.

I personally have no clue because I haven't watched the 67s.

But from years of playing the game, it's just as likely if not more that it's his lesser skilled teammates thriving against weak opposition that creates more opportunity for him to thrive.

Oh certainly, I don’t have an answer to the reason why, or how. I just think it’s wise to take a look at the splits.

I know from playing and coaching there were always teams that were “stat-padders” for the guys on the team who were looking to contend for the scoring titles. These guys were always the better players in the league, like Rossi is, and they would eat alive the bad teams for huge games every chance they got, mainly because they just weren’t as good and were easy to overmatch. When I see 3 teams with that little talent giving up that many goals against, I think they are an easy target for stat padding, which looking at the numbers all guys had against them seems to be the case, for every player, Rossi just at a much higher level.

Rossi was still the best draft eligible guy offensively in the OHL, I just believe that it is much closer than the numbers suggest they are.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Rossi's point totals are obviously inflated due to playing on an elite OHL team with two other top 10 OHL scorers on his wings, plus being the set up man on a PP with those two, the best offensive D in the OHL by far, and a stud sniper who's probably going to be a top 10 pick.

He played alongside 4 guys who are far better than anyone Byfield or Perfetti had to play with, and you'd be silly to think that it didn't make a difference on Rossi's point totals being much higher.

 

[bert]

Bert, did you not find that Bear used Rossi as a matchup player more against better lines. I feel he was the most trusted centre defensively which may explain his reduced numbers against the best teams. Having said that the longer this summer drags on, the more I think I’d prefer Quinn to Rossi.

As the season wore on Hoelscher and Quinn got the tougher matchups as well. At the start the Rossi line definitely got more. I think Tourigny would run whoever was playing better against the other teams top players. Smart coaching really. Rossi was really good on offensive zone faceoffs so they tended to get more offensive zone starts. 67's had the shortest shift lenght in the league too so they would tend to run the two top lines against the other teams best players. They're very well coached.

 

[BigRig4]

I was told by someone reliable the top 3 and thats it. I have also said this many times, you've tried to call me out a few times for this exact conversation. My answer will be the same.

I dont see the sens drafting Rossi or Raymond at 5 rightly or wrongly this scouting staff and management group doesnt draft that small when they have high picks with comparable players available.

Top 3 being LaFreniere/Byfield/Stutzle?

 

[SPF6ty9]

For comparison sake, by my count Quinn had 28 (13G + 15A) in 14 against those 3 bottom teams.

 

[DaveMatthew]

The more I think about it, the more I think the right pick is Sanderson.

If we're looking to build a contender, having Chabot anchoring one pairing playing 22-25 minutes a night, and then Sanderson anchoring another for the next 22-25 minutes. That's incredibly enticing.

One of the issues we always had with Karlsson is that he had to always take the hardest minutes and carry the team. What could have been if he had someone like Pietrangelo on the second pairing...

 

[Hale The Villain]

The more I think about it, the more I think the right pick is Sanderson.

If we're looking to build a contender, having Chabot anchoring one pairing playing 22-25 minutes a night, and then Sanderson anchoring another for the next 22-25 minutes. That's incredibly enticing.

One of the issues we always had with Karlsson is that he had to always take the hardest minutes and carry the team. What could have been if he had someone like Pietrangelo on the second pairing...

I've also warmed up to him over time. I don't think he's the BPA at 5 but I don't think I'd be furious if we took him over Drysdale.

The more I watch of Drysdale the more I think he's more of a 40-50P guy than a guy with truly high-end offensive upside. Sanderson may not be able to even reach 40P a year (few defensemen can), but it's possible that his superior all-around game makes him the more valuable D.

We'll see if I feel that way on draft day though. Feel like there's so much time to overthink things.

 

[jhutter]

The more I think about it, the more I think the right pick is Sanderson.

If we're looking to build a contender, having Chabot anchoring one pairing playing 22-25 minutes a night, and then Sanderson anchoring another for the next 22-25 minutes. That's incredibly enticing.

One of the issues we always had with Karlsson is that he had to always take the hardest minutes and carry the team. What could have been if he had someone like Pietrangelo on the second pairing...

This is the correct, albeit boring answer. As much as I want someone exciting like Raymond or Rossi, a partner for Chabot is more important. With that said, it may be possible to trade for a solid partner, similar to the Methot trade.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I've also warmed up to him over time. I don't think he's the BPA at 5 but I don't think I'd be furious if we took him over Drysdale.

The more I watch of Drysdale the more I think he's more of a 40-50P guy than a guy with truly high-end offensive upside. Sanderson may not be able to even reach 40P a year (few defensemen can), but it's possible that his superior all-around game makes him the more valuable D.

We'll see if I feel that way on draft day though. Feel like there's so much time to overthink things.

I wouldn't be upset about Sanderson either, but IMO if somebody drafts him that high, you should believe that they believe he can hit 40 points. Otherwise you're not picking a guy that high for just defense. There would have been like 40-50 dmen getting 40 points this season, so it's way more than a few who can do that.

 

[aragorn]

This is the correct, albeit boring answer. As much as I want someone exciting like Raymond or Rossi, a partner for Chabot is more important. With that said, it may be possible to trade for a solid partner, similar to the Methot trade.

Exactly, but they could also find a good partner for Chabot with the NYI pick or the 33rd pick (Schneider/Barron). Hell they might be able to find a partner for him in next yr's draft too, if the guy is good enough to be NHL ready in a yr or two. I like Schultz RD in the 2021 draft who I think the Sens should target, if they are unable to acquire Sergachev through a trade. JBD could also be the perfect partner for Chabot, but that will have to wait a yr or so too. IMO Sanderson would be a pretty good 2nd pairing LD right behind Chabot for the next decade.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

This is the correct, albeit boring answer. As much as I want someone exciting like Raymond or Rossi, a partner for Chabot is more important. With that said, it may be possible to trade for a solid partner, similar to the Methot trade.

The only issue with Sanderson is that he plays the left side.

 

[Masked]

One of the issues we always had with Karlsson is that he had to always take the hardest minutes and carry the team. What could have been if he had someone like Pietrangelo on the second pairing...

You're forgetting the Gonchar years.

 

[Sens in Process]

I've also warmed up to him over time. I don't think he's the BPA at 5 but I don't think I'd be furious if we took him over Drysdale.

The more I watch of Drysdale the more I think he's more of a 40-50P guy than a guy with truly high-end offensive upside. Sanderson may not be able to even reach 40P a year (few defensemen can), but it's possible that his superior all-around game makes him the more valuable D.

We'll see if I feel that way on draft day though. Feel like there's so much time to overthink things.

I believe, as for most that are bullish on him, that Sanderson has a lot of untapped offensive ability, which became more and more evident as the season progressed. To paraphrase hockeyprospects, the difference between Sanderson and Drysdale's offensive game is considerably smaller than the gap between their respective defensive game,with Sanderson obviously having the distinct edge.

If Sanderson does become a guy who gets 35 to 45 point per season(and I think he can),he will be immensely valuable to this team. We can easily get some skilled wingers in this draft with our other picks.

 

[DaveMatthew]

You're forgetting the Gonchar years.

No offense to Gonchar, but at the time in his career that we had him, he wasn't able to do what a 22-28 year old Sanderson projects to do in terms of logging heavy minutes against the other team's best offensive players.