Value of: 5 first round picks vs Bedard

[Half Clapper]

I have watched him son, he is a good player, no where close to Bedard and absolutely no where close to Ovechkin at the same age. Would be shocked if he is picked second.

You’re wrong and we can agree to disagree. The guy put up 20 pts in 27 games in the Khl ffs. I won’t be surprised if he ends up better than bedard

 

[General Fanager]

The team that wins the lottery is getting Bedard. there is no realistic scenario were they trade that pick...

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

If the Blues traded Parayko and Vrana in the offseason and wound up with 5 first round picks, would you rather have the picks or Bedard?

For more context I’m putting the picks at 9th, 18th, 21st, 26th, and 30th.

With that exact package...Bedard.

If you could move 21, 26 and 30 for, say a pick in the 2-4 overall range, then I would consider it. Maybe.

 

[Jerkbait]

Exactly it would take something very similar to this to even get the ball rolling. Seeing as whoever gets him has to outbid 30 other teams. I am sure there are a few GM / Owners who would offer this without even thinking twice.

Well if they did and there could be a conversation, I just don't see what team would.

 

[Maverick41]

I think in hindsight you could come up with a combination of 5 first round picks (even without a top10 pick) that would make you at least think very hard about trading the 1st OA for them, even when the 1st OA is McDavid, Crosby or Bedard. It would be even more of a sure thing (again in hindsight) if you could include any picks beyond the 1st round.

As an experiment I looked at the Crosby and McDavid drafts and chose 5 1st round picks (2 in the 11-20 range and 3 in the 21-30 range)

McDavid vs. Connor, Chabot (or Barzal), Boeser, Konecny, Beauvillier (or Samsonov)
Crosby vs. Kopitar, Hanzal, Rask, Oshie, Niskanen (or Cogliano)

Problem is, we don't have hindsight before the draft, and the gamble is too risky. Statistically it seems improbable, that a team would hit on enough of the picks to end up with an adequate haul.
If there is a prospect of this level available at 1st OA I would not like my odds in a gamble of quantity over quality, even in a draft that is considered deep.

 

[CanadienShark]

Hm probably Bedard, but those lottery tickets are awfully tempting.

Somewhat off topic, but are you talking 5 firsts from them together, or including picks already owned by STL?

 

[trick9]

Bedard.

Vrana cleared waivers a while back, so it's not like his value is sky high right now.

 

[Shark Finn]

Vs? I'm thinking a player wins against draft picks.

 

[CanadienShark]

Tougher question: would you choose Bedard over having the next five first overall picks? So, for example, are you taking Crosby or are you taking Stamkos, Tavares, Eric Johnson, Talylor Hall, and Patrick Kane?

As for the OPs question, no chance I’m trading him for five first round picks with some in the teens and twenties. Not a chance.

That swings the pendulum the other way easily. Johnson was a pretty damn good player in his prime, I think people forget.

Two superstar centres, one (arguably two) superstar wingers and a decent top pairing d-man... I'd take that over Crosby any day.

This IMO is the more compelling question and you take the 5 1OA picks each time. That said you also have to wait five years for it to play out.

McDavid

Vs

Matthews, Hischier, Dahlin, Hughes, Lafreniere

So you have a deadly 1, 2, 3 Centre combo down the middle, a 1D and Lafreniere. That's pretty much the basis of a contending team.

The latter group AINEC.

 

[Qwijibo]

You people are overrating bedard. If it was 5 picks in the top 10 of this draft I’ll take the picks every time no question. One player doesn’t win championships boys! Look at the oilers

Michkov, Fantilli, Reinbacher, Carlsson, and benson > bedard any day

Michkov may even be better than bedard right now for Christ sake

That’s not what was suggested though.

 

[CanadienShark]

I have watched him son, he is a good player, no where close to Bedard and absolutely no where close to Ovechkin at the same age. Would be shocked if he is picked second.

Isn't he outdoing Ovechkin at the same age? Of course Ovechkin is a physical monster, so it's hard to project Michkov the same way, but what he's doing is not only unusual, it's unprecedented.

 

[Lockin17]

Bedard for Seider + Detroit #10

 

[Silky Johnson]

Over fantilli,carlsson,michkov,benson and Smith? I might take those picks...idk lol

That is a lot more interesting then the OP. There is is bunch of Quality there. What would Michkov's value be if it wasn't for Vlads insatiable lust for destruction and he got play at the WJC? Fantilli is putting up one of the better NCAA freshmen season ever. Leo Carlson is looking great against men in the SHL. Benson & Smith look great as well. That could be most of a very good top 6...

 

[Le Magnifique]

There is a chance he could be a bust.... No one can predict with certainty that he'll flourish the same way he did in the O.
Just putting out the possibility. Everyone here seems to have him headed to stardom without having seeing a single game in the NHL.

 

[Lockin17]

There is a chance he could be a bust.... No one can predict with certainty that he'll flourish the same way he did in the O.
Just putting out the possibility. Everyone here seems to have him headed to stardom without having seeing a single game in the NHL.

you are joking right ??

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Bedard and it doesn't really even come close. It would need to be a couple more top 5 picks included and the rest all top 10 to even pause to think about it.

 

[Le Magnifique]

you are joking right ??

Every player coming from Juniors - including Gretzky - was subject to the same level of scrutiny.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Bedard is the answer.

You're also not getting a 1st for Vrana unless you're eating a really bad contract. His performance in St. Louis isn't all that unexpected, the reason he didn't/doesn't have trade value wasn't a lack of production.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

If the Blues traded Parayko and Vrana in the offseason and wound up with 5 first round picks, would you rather have the picks or Bedard?

For more context I’m putting the picks at 9th, 18th, 21st, 26th, and 30th.

You're not getting a first for Vrana. Holy f***.

 

[Canovin]

Change the 30th to a 5th or 6th overall pick and this would be more interesting

 

[McShogun99]

Hmmmm,

Potential generational player that could change the fate of a franchise while potentially making the owner 100's of millions of dollars over their career or a bunch of potential depth players?????

Sounds like a tough choice.

The value of the Oilers franchise has doubled since Mcdavid was drafted. There's no amount of players that can provide that value to an owner.

 

[dwonger]

Isn't he outdoing Ovechkin at the same age? Of course Ovechkin is a physical monster, so it's hard to project Michkov the same way, but what he's doing is not only unusual, it's unprecedented.

Yakapov had better khl stats.... right after drafted

 

[jellybeans]

Bedard isn't gonna turn around a bad team all by himself just like McDavid can't do it all in Edmonton. I'll take the picks

Only futures are involved so if you team is already good its not on him to make the team good he just going to make it much better.

 

[jellybeans]

There is always a deal but unlikely this year ...
Would.be an extreme overpayment and cripple the other team for a decade ..

1rst overall
For
3 first in 23
First in 24
First in 25
2nd in 24
2nd in 25
3rd in 26
4th in 24
Grade A prospect x 2
Grade x 2
Valuable roster player x 2

Such a dumb offer.

What if it was picks #2 thru #6 in this year's draft?

It would be the dumbest offer in history with a strong draft like this year.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Of course you take Bedard, and you live with whatever happens.

A more interesting question might be; as one of the bottom teams likeliest to get the top pick, do you trade the pick before the lottery for five 1sts?

But yeah, if you know you're getting Bedard, the only thing that makes you think of trading that pick, in any semi-reality based scenario, would be if you're getting a 26 year old McDavid with 3 years left. Maybe Makar? Even with McDavid though, that's an 8 year difference. That's 3 ELC years, plus potentially an 8 year 2nd contract, so you might have Bedard for 11 years at his best.