4th Overall the Senators Take Brady Tkachuk

[Sens of Anarchy]

You wouldn’t have had a choice since Keller was drafted before Brown.

thanks ... yah I realize that

 

[Ice-Tray]

Pardon? I just put up Wheeler's chart with Zadina @ 5 and Tkachuk @ 24. As to actual draft positions, please re-read my previous post. Montreal and Arizona drafted centers...they were always going to draft centers.

Zadina @ #4 Filip Zadina Scouting Report: 2018 NHL Draft #4 - Last Word on Hockey
Tkachuk @ #11 Brady Tkachuk Scouting Report: 2018 NHL Draft #10

Eh, it's all good. I've said my piece. Some folks want to make the pick to have been a blunder and argue that BT had no business being picked 4OA, so be it. Opinions don't change much around here.

I'm also not sure why I'm supposed to be caring much about a dude who ranks BT at 24th in terms of prospects a few weeks after the draft while putting Zadina at 5th. I mean central scouting had BT ranked 2nd and Zadina at 3rd for North American skaters at the draft, stands to reason they would have BT ranked higher in a prospect list.

I'm content to let it all play out, I just don't understand the fans who feel the need to mischaracterize the player we did choose as though he had no business being picked 4OA.

 

[NyQuil]

So this talk that Zadina was the the consensus 3rd pick is patently false, we all knew that there was a real chance that Zadina would fall out of the top 5. Scouts had soured on him largely because things he couldn't control like positional bias(Montreal and Phoenix apparently had two centers in their top 5), and recency bias, along with the perception he didn't improve as the season progressed and he had limited athletic ability, among other things of course.

Tkachuk had 9 of 10 scouts polled put him solidly in the top 5. Beyond Dahlin and Svechnikov, according to Mckenzie's list, Tkachuk was only other prospect who really had a legitimate claim to be a consensus top 5 pick. I mean, scouts had Zadina ranked as high as 7 and 9.

I guess the question is around ceiling vs. safety.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I guess the question is around ceiling vs. safety.

Or just liking one player over another

 

[NyQuil]

Or just liking one player over another

That too, I suppose.

I'm gonna buy you a Tkachuk jersey for Christmas, old friend.

 

[HSF]

I guess the question is around ceiling vs. safety.

not really if you read Bob's article there was a sense amongst scouts that Tkachuk has a large range of growth still in him and that he is really raw especially physically

Brady is a lanky guy who just grew another inch last year so he is still filling out a lot more than some of the guys in the top of the draft

 

[Tundraman]

I think the Sens went for the perceived need of a physical player who can play top 6 and Tkachuk seems to fit that perfectly. Whether it pans out that way is another matter but all things considered I won't fault Dorion for giving it a shot.

 

[Sens in Process]

not really if you read Bob's article there was a sense amongst scouts that Tkachuk has a large range of growth still in him and that he is really raw especially physically

Brady is a lanky guy who just grew another inch last year so he is still filling out a lot more than some of the guys in the top of the draft

And this is the number one problem with late birthday talk.

Late birthday talk assumes linear development in physical maturity, Brady has a lot more filling out to do relative his peers, like Wahlstrom, Zadina and just about anyone else taken in top 12, aside from Dobson. Mathew was even heavier, despite being shorter, in his draft year.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I think the Sens went for the perceived need of a physical player who can play top 6 and Tkachuk seems to fit that perfectly. Whether it pans out that way is another matter but all things considered I won't fault Dorion for giving it a shot.

It's too bad Dorion didn't identify the team's need for elite talent and scoring ability at forward. For that Dorion deserves all the blame. He wanted a physical player in the top 6 over legit franchise talents. Its kinda like when he thought the team needed Burrows instead of actual NHL players. That's what you get though when you keep around guys that constantly make terrible decisions though. At least our actual scouts seem to be doing well with their guys.

 

[Ice-Tray]

It's too bad Dorion didn't identify the team's need for elite talent and scoring ability at forward. For that Dorion deserves all the blame. He wanted a physical player in the top 6 over legit franchise talents. Its kinda like when he thought the team needed Burrows instead of actual NHL players. That's what you get though when you keep around guys that constantly make terrible decisions though. At least our actual scouts seem to be doing well with their guys.

This is one poster's opinion, not a statement from PD.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It's too bad Dorion didn't identify the team's need for elite talent and scoring ability at forward. For that Dorion deserves all the blame. He wanted a physical player in the top 6 over legit franchise talents. Its kinda like when he thought the team needed Burrows instead of actual NHL players. That's what you get though when you keep around guys that constantly make terrible decisions though. At least our actual scouts seem to be doing well with their guys.

Don't all GMs want big physical thick as a post goof balls destined to play on the 3rd line max over legit franchise talents guaranteed to put up 70 pts minimum and electrify the crowd.

 

[JD1]

Ottawa was #25 in GF last year(with Hoffman)...Montreal was 29th and Arizona was 30th. These are teams that desperately need an elite scorer....but passed on the best shot in the draft.

which is somewhat counterintuitive to your previous post on positional need

 

[stempniaksen]

It's too bad Dorion didn't identify the team's need for elite talent and scoring ability at forward. For that Dorion deserves all the blame. He wanted a physical player in the top 6 over legit franchise talents. Its kinda like when he thought the team needed Burrows instead of actual NHL players. That's what you get though when you keep around guys that constantly make terrible decisions though. At least our actual scouts seem to be doing well with their guys.

There was no franchise level talent available when we drafted Brady Tkachuk at #4.

 

[Mingus Dew]

I've definitely gone overboard a bit bro!

My point is that the few posters that are saying that Zadina is a great player while BT is a much lesser prospect don't have support. You can prefer the guy for sure, but when you look at their draft positions across the various publications, scouting reports, and the actual NHL draft, there really isn't any support for this opinion.

I definitely don’t think that this is a Lee/Kopitar type situation. I would have preferred Zadina but Tkachuk wasn’t an off-the-board pick by any means.

Arizona did more than enough off-the-board picking for the rest of us.

 

[Solarion]

That's Wheeler's opinion on who he believes are the best prospects atm. He was high on Zadina pre draft and wasn't much of a fan of Tkachuk, but really it's just 1 guys opinion, so what's your point exactly?

My point, exactly, was that you quoted my response to this:

My point is that the few posters that are saying that Zadina is a great player while BT is a much lesser prospect don't have support.

...and that's not true. There's plenty to support the notion that Zadina > Tkachuk as a prospect.

I haven't followed the debate but have you just cherry picked that scouting source?

Yep. I cherry picked this:
Filip Zadina Scouting Report: 2018 NHL Draft #4 - Last Word on Hockey

...and this:
2018 NHL Entry Draft: May Top-50

...and this:


...and this:
NHL Draft prospect rankings: Rasmus Dahlin or Andrei Svechnikov? It's 1A vs. 1B atop 2018 class

...and this:
2018 Draft Prospect Rankings | NHL Draft Prospect Rankings

Actually all I did was google it. The list goes on and on...
2018 nhl prospect rankings - Google Search

Edit: This one is my favorite though:


Dahlin, Svechnikov unanimous 1-2 in final 2018 mock draft

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

There was no franchise level talent available when we drafted Brady Tkachuk at #4.

I think Zadina and Dobson were but the 2019 pick will have a few guys available who will be legit franchise guys.

 

[stempniaksen]

I think Zadina and Dobson were but the 2019 pick will have a few guys available who will be legit franchise guys.

You're entitled to your opinion, but I obviously disagree with your assessment of Zadina and Dobson (and clearly I'm not the only one based on how the draft played out).

The 2019 pick may be a valid point and something we regret not having, but it's still up in the air and we can't really count that as anything concrete until we see where it falls. I know next to nothing about the 2019 draft, but I also don't buy that there's 10-12 guys better than BT as some around here have claimed.

 

[NyQuil]

Don't all GMs want big physical thick as a post goof balls destined to play on the 3rd line max over legit franchise talents guaranteed to put up 70 pts minimum and electrify the crowd.

I can’t believe Bryan Murray passed away before he got a chance to acquire Chris Stewart.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

I can’t believe Bryan Murray passed away before he got a chance to acquire Chris Stewart.

or Dustin Penner :/

 

[Masked]

I can’t believe Bryan Murray passed away before he got a chance to acquire Chris Stewart.

I wonder if John Muckler is angling for a GM position somewhere in the hockey world so that he can finally land Gary Roberts.

 

[aragorn]

or Dustin Penner :/

Or Yakupov ...

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Lol who cares if tkachuk adds 20 pounds.

The issue isn't his size, adding 20 pounds isn't going to give him the elite offensive instincts that we need.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Tkachuk to announce if he will sign with Senators by Aug. 12

 

[Ice-Tray]

My point, exactly, was that you quoted my response to this:

...and that's not true. There's plenty to support the notion that Zadina > Tkachuk as a prospect.

Yep. I cherry picked this:
Filip Zadina Scouting Report: 2018 NHL Draft #4 - Last Word on Hockey

...and this:
2018 NHL Entry Draft: May Top-50

...and this:


...and this:
NHL Draft prospect rankings: Rasmus Dahlin or Andrei Svechnikov? It's 1A vs. 1B atop 2018 class

...and this:
2018 Draft Prospect Rankings | NHL Draft Prospect Rankings

Actually all I did was google it. The list goes on and on...
2018 nhl prospect rankings - Google Search

Edit: This one is my favorite though:


Dahlin, Svechnikov unanimous 1-2 in final 2018 mock draft

.... And Mac's list of NHL scouts and Central scouting had Zadina a little below BT overall, with some NHL scouts having him several spots lower. Anyways, my point wasn't;t that some publications had Zadina ranked one spot higher, it was that there was no support out there for the notion that Zadina was MUCH better than BT, and in fact several NHL scouts and publications had BT ranked higher. So no, Zadina was not a consensus better pick at 4, and he certainly isn't a star in the making vs BT being a third line grinding winger propped up on intangibles and a hockey name.

I hope that makes sense. Prefer who you want, just stop making it seem like BT wasn't a legit 4OA pick with the same sky high potential.

 

[Micklebot]

And this is the number one problem with late birthday talk.

Late birthday talk assumes linear development in physical maturity, Brady has a lot more filling out to do relative his peers, like Wahlstrom, Zadina and just about anyone else taken in top 12, aside from Dobson. Mathew was even heavier, despite being shorter, in his draft year.

Late birthdays isn't about physical maturity at all though. It's about having an extra year developing relative to your draft cohort. Essentially, late birth year prospects can be assumed to be more refined than prospects in the same draft cohort who were born Jan-Sep.

I'm of the opinion that comparing a late birthday to the previous draft cohort just exchanges one issue with another, and that you need to look at multiple years and keep things like birth year as well as relative age effect in mind, along with physical maturity.

The comparison to Keller and Eichel are relevant in that we look at what they did and know what elite talent looks like on the ice and on paper. Tkachuk doesn't meet their standards because he is for from elite. He's more comparable to Luke Kunin than to Clayton Keller as a prospect.

That's not really a fair way of looking at things though, is it. It's as if I said that we should look to Marner and McDavid to see how elite talent looks in the CHL, and Zadina is no where near that, then wrote off Zadina as just being the next Rychel (pulling a name out of a hat here, there are probably better compararbles).

He played with quality players all his life. He wasn’t just solely playing with Greenway as well, he spent time with Bowers and Harper too. He’s just more of a complimentary guy, you won’t see being a line driver.

Greenway was being played out of position, neither Bowers or Harper are anywhere close to the same as the guys his brother played with. He's not playing with scrubs, true, but the quality of linemates is a valid point.