4th Overall the Senators Take Brady Tkachuk

[BondraTime]

The thing is, we've already gone for the best shot in the draft before and it didn't pan out even remotely. Zadina has higher goal scoring potential than BT, but that doesn't mean he has the potential to be a better or more impactful hockey player.

There is more to hockey than scoring, there are lots of star players without an elite shot, and lots of guys with elite shots that aren't star players.

Trent Mann made it clear that in his mind the two players were of an equal skill level, different strengths obviously, but that everything else BT brought made him a unique player, and one they could not pass up regardless of Zadina being available.

And there are lots of guys with size, heart and talent gat aren't stars, what's your point?

Are you comparing Puempel at 25th and Zadina with a lotto pick?

I've been saying expect Zadina to go lower than expected since January, I've heard it straight from scouts at the rinks that other guys were moving ahead even though Zadina is still a great player.

The only think Puempel had that compares to Zadina was a shot, which Zadina still has over him. I watched Zadina live 10+ times this year, his offensive tools are incredible. Agility, edges, vision and shot are all top notch. There has been a myth here he's a perimeter player, that couldn't be further from the truth. He goes to the dirty areas and drives to the scoring areas regularly.

Tkachuk is ours, nothing we say changes that. Ha will constantly be compared with Zadina. Neither guy is someone we should have wanted with a 4th overall, but I feel like Zadina's skillset as a winger is something the Sens lacked more.

Tkachuk is a guy the Sens haven't had as a power forward, had mass fan appeal with his last name, has no bust factor, fits the Sens draft process to a tee. I completely understand why the pick was made, hard to not understand it.

The Sens can't come out with a guy that isn't an NHLer. But he is the least likely guy in the top 10 to turn into a star.

That's not what "I", as a fan with nothing on the line, wanted with this pick. We will wait until there is a bit of time passed to look at things, but I would be very surprised if he isn't passed by quite a few of the guys drafted after him. This isn't any kind of "Sens negativity" or any kind of "Management shaming", I have been saying his about Tkachuk long before the Sens even looked to be able to pick in the top 10.

 

[Micklebot]

Because Mittlestadt is an extremely raw prospect coming out of high school, while Tkachuk has been produced from the usntdp. Mittlestadt was also the leader for his college team in PPG and was voted the best player in the world juniors. Add in the fact that he had five points in six games at the NHL level, it’s not surprising why people aren’t worried. He’s shown flashes of ELITE skills with the moves he pulls off.

When comparing Mittlestadt to Tkachuk it’s easy to see who has the elite offensive skills and tools.

This right here is why HF posters overacted guys like Filatov, flashy doesn't mean better though.

The thing is though, nobody is arguing that Tkachuk is that kind of player. But there his putting up very similar production to a guy nobody worries about, both in College and in the WJC, again, while being almost a full year younger and all we here is how his production is underwhelming.

So, a guy who's calling card is offense gets off while a guy who's calling card is everything else has everyone focusing on offense.

 

[Solarion]

and 7 guys from 2018 ahead of Tkachuk.

See! You did get the point. lol

 

[JungleBeat]

This right here is why HF posters overacted guys like Filatov, flashy doesn't mean better though.

The thing is though, nobody is arguing that Tkachuk is that kind of player. But there his putting up very similar production to a guy nobody worries about, both in College and in the WJC, again, while being almost a full year younger and all we here is how his production is underwhelming.

So, a guy who's calling card is offense gets off while a guy who's calling card is everything else has everyone focusing on offense.

Nobody worries because he’s straight out of high school and won MVP in the WJC like I said. Coming out of high school is completely different than training with elites at the usndtp like Tkachuk. With a pick as high as Tkachuk we should be focusing on his offence absolutely, there’s no way around it.

Also, we had a little discussion previously about linemates and production referencing Tkachuk with Bowers/Harper/Greenway. Mittlestadt isn’t getting anywhere near those caliber players while leading his team in PPG.

 

[BondraTime]

This right here is why HF posters overacted guys like Filatov, flashy doesn't mean better though.

The thing is though, nobody is arguing that Tkachuk is that kind of player. But there his putting up very similar production to a guy nobody worries about, both in College and in the WJC, again, while being almost a full year younger and all we here is how his production is underwhelming.

So, a guy who's calling card is offense gets off while a guy who's calling card is everything else has everyone focusing on offense.

There skillsets aren't remotely similar, that's why they aren't compared or considered similarly as strong a prospect.

Same reason Colin White isn't considered the same type of prospect as Middlestadt or Borgstrom even though he had similar seasons at similar times.

I mean, using that metric one would wonder why we took Tkachuk 4th when he put up the same type numbers as the guy we took 28th last year.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

See! You did get the point. lol

I guess I'll ask again, what does it purportedly show? Tkachuk ranking 8th in his draft by a certain unspecified metric means nothing without the context of what it is measuring and how it is doing so.

There are plenty of metrics by which he is not a top 20 player, I'm sure, just like there are plenty of metrics by which pretty much everyone in the entire draft isn't a top 20 player. Zadina wasn't a top 20 player by several objective metrics but those measurements do very little to change my view of him as a player.

 

[DJB]

Anyone know how hes done at the World Junior showcase?

 

[Solarion]

I guess I'll ask again, what does it purportedly show?

I posted a chart here:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...-brady-tkachuk.2506899/page-36#post-148556547

Illustrating Scott Wheeler's take on the top 50 current prospects.

 

[Micklebot]

There skillsets aren't remotely similar, that's why they aren't compared or considered similarly as strong a prospect.

The point I'm making is one has the skillset where production is the expectation, while the other has the skillset where production isn't the primary attribute. There's a huge bias towards flashy players on this site, to the point that even when they aren't producing up to expectations, people still prefer them. I don't mind people preferring Zadina over Tkachuk, I'm one of those people after all, but some people have been using the pts production in Boston as proof to write of the skill that Tkachuk has show as though he's a grinder or something; the guy has shown a lot and while he'll never be Patrick Kane out there, there's still a lot more upside and skill than some are giving credit.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

I posted a chart here:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...-brady-tkachuk.2506899/page-36#post-148556547

Illustrating Scott Wheeler's take on the top 50 current prospects.

Scott Wheeler ranking Tkachuk 8th in the draft is about as valuable as the other journalists who ranked him 3rd. I actually think Tkachuk will probably end up around 8th best from this draft and I'd be fine with that, but Scott Wheeler's rankings really don't hold much weight - no more and probably less so than the draft rankings of the average scout.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

film at 11

 

[Hale The Villain]

This right here is why HF posters overacted guys like Filatov, flashy doesn't mean better though.

The thing is though, nobody is arguing that Tkachuk is that kind of player. But there his putting up very similar production to a guy nobody worries about, both in College and in the WJC, again, while being almost a full year younger and all we here is how his production is underwhelming.

So, a guy who's calling card is offense gets off while a guy who's calling card is everything else has everyone focusing on offense.

While I'm someone who puts a lot of stock in the production of prospects, the eye test is essential to determining whether a player's production is legitimate - that is, able to be built upon, a fluke, or somewhere in between.

Eye test shows Mittelstadt is an elite talent, and his production at every other level has been excellent. Makes me think his disappointing 19YR old NCAA production isn't indicative of a lack of offensive potential at the next level.

Tkachuk doesn't pass the eye test or the stats test in terms of high-end offensive potential.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I posted a chart here:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...-brady-tkachuk.2506899/page-36#post-148556547

Illustrating Scott Wheeler's take on the top 50 current prospects.

Did you create an account just to trash Brady Tkachuk?

 

[Icelevel]

And there are lots of guys with size, heart and talent gat aren't stars, what's your point?

Are you comparing Puempel at 25th and Zadina with a lotto pick?

I've been saying expect Zadina to go lower than expected since January, I've heard it straight from scouts at the rinks that other guys were moving ahead even though Zadina is still a great player.

The only think Puempel had that compares to Zadina was a shot, which Zadina still has over him. I watched Zadina live 10+ times this year, his offensive tools are incredible. Agility, edges, vision and shot are all top notch. There has been a myth here he's a perimeter player, that couldn't be further from the truth. He goes to the dirty areas and drives to the scoring areas regularly.

Tkachuk is ours, nothing we say changes that. Ha will constantly be compared with Zadina. Neither guy is someone we should have wanted with a 4th overall, but I feel like Zadina's skillset as a winger is something the Sens lacked more.

Tkachuk is a guy the Sens haven't had as a power forward, had mass fan appeal with his last name, has no bust factor, fits the Sens draft process to a tee. I completely understand why the pick was made, hard to not understand it.

The Sens can't come out with a guy that isn't an NHLer. But he is the least likely guy in the top 10 to turn into a star.

That's not what "I", as a fan with nothing on the line, wanted with this pick. We will wait until there is a bit of time passed to look at things, but I would be very surprised if he isn't passed by quite a few of the guys drafted after him. This isn't any kind of "Sens negativity" or any kind of "Management shaming", I have been saying his about Tkachuk long before the Sens even looked to be able to pick in the top 10.

Post is fine. Other than the bold. That is ridiculous.

 

[BigRig4]

And there are lots of guys with size, heart and talent gat aren't stars, what's your point?

Are you comparing Puempel at 25th and Zadina with a lotto pick?

I've been saying expect Zadina to go lower than expected since January, I've heard it straight from scouts at the rinks that other guys were moving ahead even though Zadina is still a great player.

The only think Puempel had that compares to Zadina was a shot, which Zadina still has over him. I watched Zadina live 10+ times this year, his offensive tools are incredible. Agility, edges, vision and shot are all top notch. There has been a myth here he's a perimeter player, that couldn't be further from the truth. He goes to the dirty areas and drives to the scoring areas regularly.

Tkachuk is ours, nothing we say changes that. Ha will constantly be compared with Zadina. Neither guy is someone we should have wanted with a 4th overall, but I feel like Zadina's skillset as a winger is something the Sens lacked more.

Tkachuk is a guy the Sens haven't had as a power forward, had mass fan appeal with his last name, has no bust factor, fits the Sens draft process to a tee. I completely understand why the pick was made, hard to not understand it.

The Sens can't come out with a guy that isn't an NHLer. But he is the least likely guy in the top 10 to turn into a star.

That's not what "I", as a fan with nothing on the line, wanted with this pick. We will wait until there is a bit of time passed to look at things, but I would be very surprised if he isn't passed by quite a few of the guys drafted after him. This isn't any kind of "Sens negativity" or any kind of "Management shaming", I have been saying his about Tkachuk long before the Sens even looked to be able to pick in the top 10.

So since it seems like you've watched the draft prospects extensively, I'm super curious who you would have take at #4?

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Post is fine. Other than the bold. That is ridiculous.

Eh, it might be true. Svechnikov, Kravtsov, and Zadina are probably the 3 forwards with true star potential from the top 14. Dahlin, Hughes, and Dobson are the D with star potential and Bouchard could fall under that category too, although I see his upside as closer to Tkachuk's - a top player, but not the top player on a team. I don't really think Zadina will be the top player on a team, either, but he could be a teams offensive star.

That said, Boqvist and Kravtsov could bust, Bouchard could very well be a middle-pair DMan. Zadina may not be a true top liner. Hayton could easily end up a middle 6er/2nd liner. Hughes is a damn good player but he may struggle to handle top forwards (that's the only possible knock I can think of with him TBH). There is a fair chance that Tkachuk doesnt end up in the top 5 amongst the top 12 guys, but I would be surprised if he's lower than 7th or 8th, and the gap between 3/4 and 7/8 likely won't be very large. I would have been happy with anyone in the top 7 and don't see a huge gap between anyone picked 3-7. I'd also include Dobson in that group.

 

[Solarion]

Did you create an account just to trash Brady Tkachuk?

If I did...I suck at it. I've not trash talked Brady Tkachuk even once. In fact I've said on a number of occasions that I like the kid.

If saying his ceiling is high, but not sky high counts as trash talking, then yeah, I did that.

 

[Xspyrit]

I used to be like you. I used to jump on anyone who criticized a decision made by the team, and I considered myself a good fan for doing so. Time and maturity has changed that.

Sorry I don’t mean to pick on you but I bookmarked this post to adress this.

It’s ok if you dislike a decision or don’t have much faith in a player but to put that on the account of « time and maturity » is ridiculous... It just means you’re getting older and you have seen a bit more what this world is really made of, aka a lot of negative and sadness. If anything, people tend to be grumpier and more cynical when they get older. The challenge is to remain able to focus on the positive despite all the shit that is going on. Personally, despite all the real life tragedies that I have been around, I am grateful everyday that my wife and kids and other significant ones are well and alive

Concerning the Sens, in reality it’s probably never as dramatic as it painted on this board (or positive if it was lol). Personally, I tend to appreciate the good things they do or have done, like reaching the ECF 1 year ago. Now they had a pretty bad season last year and a lot has gone wrong lately so I understand that we need to see some positive happen. Like most, I don’t have much faith in Dorion and Melnyk, but again I don’t think it has anything to do with time and maturity.

 

[BondraTime]

Post is fine. Other than the bold. That is ridiculous.

Not ridiculous whatsoever, pretty common thought actually.

Tkachuck and Hayton definitely have the lowest offensive potential out of all the top 12

 

[stempniaksen]

Not ridiculous whatsoever, pretty common thought actually.

Tkachuck and Hayton definitely have the lowest offensive potential out of all the top 12

I still don't see whats gives Kotkaniemi and Dobson any more offensive potential than Tkachuk, but I know we disagree on those two guys as well.

I'm a Tkachuk "fan" though and even I can see the argument for Dahlin/Svech/Zadina/Wahlstrom/Kravtsov/Hughes/Boqvist/Bouchard. It's not off-base to think there are guys drafted lower with a higher ceiling, but obviously all the guys have their warts as well.

 

[OgieO]

I like Brady, am excited to see what he can bring to the team. I love the qualities he seems to excel at (physicality, skating, playmaking). I preferred Zadina but I think both are excellent but different prospects. I hope PD's decision to make the pick is backed by confidence that EK is staying though. I actually think this team has talent and a small wave of young talent coming just about ready to help. I really think White, Brown, Tkachuk, Batherson, Wolanin, etc. are going to be good middle roster players for the modern NHL. Hopefully one or more end up at top line players but even still, that infusion of talent helps. Still a top D short and goaltending... yikes.

But man what a risky decision to keep that pick.

 

[BondraTime]

I still don't see whats gives Kotkaniemi and Dobson any more offensive potential than Tkachuk, but I know we disagree on those two guys as well.

I'm a Tkachuk "fan" though and even I can see the argument for Dahlin/Svech/Zadina/Wahlstrom/Kravtsov/Hughes/Boqvist/Bouchard. It's not off-base to think there are guys drafted lower with a higher ceiling, but obviously all the guys have their warts as well.

Therein lies the problem, for me. We left that many guys on the board, who right off the bat, we can safely say all have the potential to be higher impact players, with all due respect to Brady's truculence.

They were both guys I liked a ton well before they were even considered mid 1st rounders. Both easily have more offensive potential at their respective positions, in my opinion. Kotkaniemi is going to explode next year, his tools and toolbox are insanely good.

Doesn't matter what I think, the Sens chose Brady. Sink or swim at this point

 

[OgieO]

Well, I agree about Kotkaniemi but kinda same argument could be made about Tkachuk. His tools were better than his production, normal age appropriate improvement and a normalized shooting % and he "explodes" next year.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

https://www.tsn.ca/hockey-canada/video/world-junior-showcase-canada-2-usa-3-gm-1~1452234

He may not snipe like Zadina but he will make plays like these ^^

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Nice play and hustle.

He needs to stay at college next year and dominate at his league then the world juniors again.

Come back at the end of season when its done for some games, then get ready for a full top 6 spot playing at all situations.