Look, I've been a big booster and supporter of Lane Hutson since his draft eligible season began. But when I see him on lists of the top 10 or 15 prospects outside the NHL overall? I mean, we need to be realistic.
The kid is a special offensive talent, there's no doubt about it. His abilities with the puck are elite level. But for a slight-framed defender under 5'10 who has never particularly excelled on the defensive side of the puck -- well, it's a bit of a stretch to assume he's ever going to be an average defensive presence, much less an above-average one. And although I'd categorize his skating as excellent -- his edges and shiftiness are absolutely outstanding -- he still lacks the elite straightaway speed to compensate for some of his physical limitations and offensive chance-taking. We're not talking a Scott Niedermeyer who can rush the O zone, lose the puck, and still be able to beat a forward who has 5 steps on him back into the defensive zone.
So, ultimately I think what we'll have in Hutson is a offensive generator who will kill it on the PP, but whose minutes will need to be managed at 5x5 -- essentially, not an all-situations first-pairing sort, but still a benefit to his team. I think he'll beat the odds and be an effective offensive D in the NHL despite being probably the smallest D in the NHL.
But to think Hutson will be a superstar #1 defender is a bit of a stretch. With a one-goal lead late in a game, when coaches shorten their benches Hutson likely won't be seeing much ice. So, he's just not ultimately going to be able to achieve the same amount of overall impact as a Mintyukov or Mateychuk in my opinion.
I'd certainly list Hutson in my top 50 prospects outside the NHL, and he was a great pick for where the Canadiens landed him (#62 overall). But the idea we can judge a defenseman's NHL potential simply by the amount of points they accrue in amateur hockey is patently ridiculous. When I've seen Montreal fans say Hutson is better than Luke Hughes? Well, it's borderline absurd -- Hughes matches or eclipses Hutson in literally every offensive tool (I'd say they're equal across the board except shooting, where Hughes is markedly superior), he's a significantly better skater, and his size and strength give him far more defensive potential because, let's face it, Hutson just doesn't have the ability to ever be much of a factor in terms of net front presence or puck battles down low.
In the end, I'm rooting hard for Lane Hutson. I'd repeat with confidence that I think he'll beat the odds and have some 50+ point seasons at the NHL level. I think he'll be a better version of Shayne Gostisbehere or Tony DeAngelo, because he has equivalent offensive ability and is even smarter and more competitive both with and without the puck.