Prospect Info: 33rd overall Roby Jarventie LW FIN

[MatchesMalone]

Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, the guy behind Moneyball, and probably the biggest influence on sports in the last century, (Time 100 most influential people) was a security guard working in a pork canning factory when he started writing about baseball. This idea that you have to be mainstream to be taken seriously is really limited thinking. The mainstream guys are the ones you should be looking at more suspiciously because they have a network obligation to create new stories all the time to fill a demanding news cycle.

Yes! Brilliant. Thank you.

 

[MatchesMalone]

My point was that Jokke comes off as too big for his britches. That doesn’t mean he’s wrong, just that he’s full of himself. I also didn’t say anything about mainstream people or that their opinions are better.

Since you brought them up, do you see Bobby Mac dropping a deuce on any prospects that went higher than he predicted on his list two weeks after the draft? Do you see Craig Button trying to take away credit from an 18 year old for having secondary assists in the highest league in his country? It’s just unnecessary.

I get your point about Bill James but does that that mean TSN should get Monsieur Laflèche, the commissionnaire who works security at my building and tells me how great all the Habs picks are, to replace Craig Button on the TSN segments? Of course not.

Just because one person came out of obscurity to have great success doesn’t mean everyone’s opinion is created equal. I honestly think this idea that everyone’s opinion is created equal is a blight on society, it’s what leads to people saying things like “sure Dr Tam says we should wear them but I don’t believe in masks and they are an individual decision”. That doesn’t mean mainstream people are always right or that random people can’t be right but this false equivalency is wrong.

Ooo, good points on both sides. I think you're arguing different things though. Being a good scout vs. acting professionally. Personally, I don't think that Jokke is either, but they have little to do with eachother.

 

[Billy Bridges]

My point was that Jokke comes off as too big for his britches. That doesn’t mean he’s wrong, just that he’s full of himself. I also didn’t say anything about mainstream people or that their opinions are better.

Since you brought them up, do you see Bobby Mac dropping a deuce on any prospects that went higher than he predicted on his list two weeks after the draft? Do you see Craig Button trying to take away credit from an 18 year old for having secondary assists in the highest league in his country? It’s just unnecessary.

I get your point about Bill James but does that that mean TSN should get Monsieur Laflèche, the commissionnaire who works security at my building and tells me how great all the Habs picks are, to replace Craig Button on the TSN segments? Of course not.

Just because one person came out of obscurity to have great success doesn’t mean everyone’s opinion is created equal. I honestly think this idea that everyone’s opinion is created equal is a blight on society, it’s what leads to people saying things like “sure Dr Tam says we should wear them but I don’t believe in masks and they are an individual decision”. That doesn’t mean mainstream people are always right or that random people can’t be right but this false equivalency is wrong.

Please share Monsieur Laflèche's opinion on Jarventie.

 

[Bileur]

Ooo, good points on both sides. I think you're arguing different things though. Being a good scout vs. acting professionally. Personally, I don't think that Jokke is either, but they have little to do with eachother.

That’s right. I don’t have a problem with his ranking. I certainly think it’s too early to start calling winners and losers and saying who is right or wrong when we’re dealing with an 18 year old draft.

 

[Bileur]

Please share Monsieur Laflèche's opinion on Jarventie.

Not a Habs prospect, difficult to say.

 

[Frank8]

My point was that Jokke comes off as too big for his britches. That doesn’t mean he’s wrong, just that he’s full of himself. I also didn’t say anything about mainstream people or that their opinions are better.

Since you brought them up, do you see Bobby Mac dropping a deuce on any prospects that went higher than he predicted on his list two weeks after the draft? Do you see Craig Button trying to take away credit from an 18 year old for having secondary assists in the highest league in his country? It’s just unnecessary.

I get your point about Bill James but does that that mean TSN should get Monsieur Laflèche, the commissionnaire who works security at my building and tells me how great all the Habs picks are, to replace Craig Button on the TSN segments? Of course not.

Just because one person came out of obscurity to have great success doesn’t mean everyone’s opinion is created equal. I honestly think this idea that everyone’s opinion is created equal is a blight on society, it’s what leads to people saying things like “sure Dr Tam says we should wear them but I don’t believe in masks and they are an individual decision”. That doesn’t mean mainstream people are always right or that random people can’t be right but this false equivalency is wrong.

Jokke isn't dropping a deuce on Jarventie, he just thinks he was taken too high, he was fine with him going later in round two. Him pointing out the secondary assists and the small sample size isn't a criticism of the player, he's responding to the outrage directed at him from Sens fans who are waving this hot run in his face as proof he was wrong. I never said everyone's opinion is created equal, in fact I'm saying the opposite. Jokke has watched Jarventie in person for three years which I'm sure is as long or longer than whomever the network guys are relying on. Dismissing him because he works for an independent hockey site is shortsighted. The guy knows his stuff.

 

[Masked]

Jokke has watched Jarventie in person for three years which I'm sure is as long or longer than whomever the network guys are relying on.

You mean the NHL scouts that Bob uses to make his list?

 

[Que]

Holy Jokke! You post one thing...

I hope I don’t get egg on my face for this one! (Get it?)

I don’t believe strongly enough in analytics in hockey to give it as much support as some do. It keeps tabs on the eye test but there are too many variables as the game is played on the fly for it to be totally relevant - yet.

But it is nice to see what that crowd has to say.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

You mean the NHL scouts that Bob uses to make his list?

Its certainly possible he has watched him longer and more often than NHL scouts. Although you can correct me if I am wrong on that I am sure.
Bob's rankings had Jarventie at 52 and Jokke had him 49 so that's really close at that part of the draft.

 

[Bileur]

Jokke isn't dropping a deuce on Jarventie, he just thinks he was taken too high, he was fine with him going later in round two. Him pointing out the secondary assists and the small sample size isn't a criticism of the player, he's responding to the outrage directed at him from Sens fans who are waving this hot run in his face as proof he was wrong. I never said everyone's opinion is created equal, in fact I'm saying the opposite. Jokke has watched Jarventie in person for three years which I'm sure is as long or longer than whomever the network guys are relying on. Dismissing him because he works for an independent hockey site is shortsighted. The guy knows his stuff.

Ok, I may have laid it on a bit thick with dropping a deuce. Blame it on my excitement over my bucs waxing the pack.

That said, maybe I missed some broader context but he’s responding to this:



That isn’t what I would qualify as outrage or “waving a hot run in his face to prove he’s wrong”. Looks to me like a sincere question. Some of the problem might be the medium in which people always assume others are taking shots when if the question had been asked in person it might be received differently.

To be clear, I’m also not outraged or frustrated about Jokke. I don’t particularly care I’m just sharing my opinion.

I also don’t think anyone dismissed his scouting evaluation in this thread, I’m more commenting on his attitude/communication skills.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Jokke isn't dropping a deuce on Jarventie, he just thinks he was taken too high, he was fine with him going later in round two. Him pointing out the secondary assists and the small sample size isn't a criticism of the player, he's responding to the outrage directed at him from Sens fans who are waving this hot run in his face as proof he was wrong. I never said everyone's opinion is created equal, in fact I'm saying the opposite. Jokke has watched Jarventie in person for three years which I'm sure is as long or longer than whomever the network guys are relying on. Dismissing him because he works for an independent hockey site is shortsighted. The guy knows his stuff.

Did anyone dismiss him because he works for an independent site? I think mostly people just cringed at the tacky response to fan criticism. There's no denying it was a bad look.

Personally, I'm not a fan. Has nothing to do with working for an independent site. Some of my most trusted sources for prospects are independent. I just find I often disagree with his takes.

 

[bert]

My point was that Jokke comes off as too big for his britches. That doesn’t mean he’s wrong, just that he’s full of himself. I also didn’t say anything about mainstream people or that their opinions are better.

Since you brought them up, do you see Bobby Mac dropping a deuce on any prospects that went higher than he predicted on his list two weeks after the draft? Do you see Craig Button trying to take away credit from an 18 year old for having secondary assists in the highest league in his country? It’s just unnecessary.

I get your point about Bill James but does that that mean TSN should get Monsieur Laflèche, the commissionnaire who works security at my building and tells me how great all the Habs picks are, to replace Craig Button on the TSN segments? Of course not.

Just because one person came out of obscurity to have great success doesn’t mean everyone’s opinion is created equal. I honestly think this idea that everyone’s opinion is created equal is a blight on society, it’s what leads to people saying things like “sure Dr Tam says we should wear them but I don’t believe in masks and they are an individual decision”. That doesn’t mean mainstream people are always right or that random people can’t be right but this false equivalency is wrong.

Great post.

Hockey is not Basketball or Baseball. Those are individualistic team sports. Not the same, they are not contact, and the teams change on the fly. Two variables that get in the way of all the advanced stats. Advanced stats are nice and have value. However the moment you start solely rellying on them you end up with teams built like the leafs. Or the Coyotes who realized somewhere along the line thats not how you build a team then tried to change on the fly overpaying for physicality and in an even bigger mess.

Watching players still matters. Character still matters, if a player is still competing on a sunday playing 3 in 3 on a weekend in jr when his team is down by 3 goals is not a variable a fancy stat is going to show you. Identifying growth in a player due to their physical attributes is important in scouting.

A player showing more consistency and high end skill as the season goes along can help project what they might be. Apparently Jarventie has shown elite potential with the physical frame and skill set that suggests he has lots of growth. It was somewhat of a home run swing, with the prospect depth the sens have that was the right strategy in that pick at 33.

 

[NyQuil]

It’s a bit early to be crowing about anything.

We aren’t Leafs fans.

 

[foggyvisor]

And let's be honest, if Jokke was slobbering all over Roby, y'all would have been stepping over each other to post it first.

 

[BondraTime]

And let's be honest, if Jokke was slobbering all over Roby, y'all would have been stepping over each other to post it first.

I said before the draft, for the past few years, I take what he says with a grain of salt, long before the Sens has any European prospects of note. I’ve never agreed with most of his evaluations and explanations of his rankings. He definitely watches more of the Euro’s than 99% of people here.

Is what it is, would be saying the same if he was saying our guys were top in the league.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I said before the draft, for the past few years, I take what he says with a grain of salt, long before the Sens has any European prospects of note. I’ve never agreed with most of his evaluations and explanations of his rankings. He definitely watches more of the Euro’s than 99% of people here.

Is what it is, would be saying the same if he was saying our guys were top in the league.

Likewise, I haven't agreed with his takes at all.

 

[Que]

It’s a bit early to be crowing about anything.

We aren’t Leafs fans.

“Now if you wanna crown them - then crown their a***! But they are who we thought they were! And we let them off the hook!”

- Dennis Green r.i.p.

 

[WaitingInVain]

“Now if you wanna crown them - then crown their a***! But they are who we thought they were! And we let them off the hook!”

- Dennis Green r.i.p.

Such a treat to have watched that live. Ah, memories...

 

[Que]

Such a treat to have watched that live. Ah, memories...

I worked at a Jersey City for three years from ‘04-‘07. I saw Kobe drop 81 live. Green blow up. The miraculous Greece World Cup victory. Boston ending the curse. Daniel Negreanu crush the WSOP. Tiger in his prime. “The decision” Both the Flames and Oilers cup runs (I lived in Alberta- it was f’n crazy)

I saw it all - and got paid modestly to do it. Amazing.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Great post.

Hockey is not Basketball or Baseball. Those are individualistic team sports. Not the same, they are not contact, and the teams change on the fly. Two variables that get in the way of all the advanced stats. Advanced stats are nice and have value. However the moment you start solely rellying on them you end up with teams built like the leafs. Or the Coyotes who realized somewhere along the line thats not how you build a team then tried to change on the fly overpaying for physicality and in an even bigger mess.

Watching players still matters. Character still matters, if a player is still competing on a sunday playing 3 in 3 on a weekend in jr when his team is down by 3 goals is not a variable a fancy stat is going to show you. Identifying growth in a player due to their physical attributes is important in scouting.

A player showing more consistency and high end skill as the season goes along can help project what they might be. Apparently Jarventie has shown elite potential with the physical frame and skill set that suggests he has lots of growth. It was somewhat of a home run swing, with the prospect depth the sens have that was the right strategy in that pick at 33.

I'm starting the think that analytics should only be used in pro scouting.

The quality (or lack thereof) of competition and the consistency and homogeneity of linemates and opposition makes it highly suspect in regards to players in the junior leagues. Not to mention the relatively small sample size.

Now if you have a player who has been in the NHL for 4-5 years with many different linemates and the stats say that shots, chances and possession are consistently in his favour over that span, then that is worth exploring. But 60 or so games in a player's draft season, where one day a player's playing with a dominant overager and the next he's playing with a high upside, mistake prone 16 year old? There's way too much statistical noise there for analytics to be the main informative source in draft decisions.

 

[JD1]

It’s a bit early to be crowing about anything.

We aren’t Leafs fans.

Well i suppose some of us were and bad habits are hard to break

 

[NyQuil]

Well i suppose some of us were and bad habits are hard to break

Including Mrs_NyQuil!

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Phenomenon]

Another goal for Roby against local rival Tappara yesterday. In all a great game from him.

Ottelukooste | Ilves - Tappara 23.10.2020 | Liiga

He leads the rookie scoring together with Kasper Björkqvist (PIT, 23 years old). Jesper Mattila, who is third in this list, has graduated from Boston College and is also 5 years older than Järventie.

Ilves has signed C Barrett Hayton from Coyotes and everyone expects him to be the same line with Maccelli and Järventie. Hayton is allowed to play after the quarantine period.

 

[SensFactor]

I'll be following Roby and JJ Peterka closely. I wanted the Sens to take Peterka at 33 but they went with Jarventie.

So far this season:
Jarventie: 3G, 4A in 8 games in Liiga (top Finnish league)
Peterka: 3G, 3A in 7 games in the ICEHL (top tier Austrian League)