Prospect Info: 33rd overall Roby Jarventie LW FIN

[Agent Zuuuub]

I've learned to ignore Sens fan rage regarding picks after the Tkachuk over Zadina selection. The amount of crow fans here have to eat is amusing to me. Why people gets so invested over public rankings is beyond me. Year after year it's shown that prospects drop for a reason. Rarely does it work out.

There was adequate boom or bust selections in the first two rounds IMO, which is where a vast majority of our draft capital was held anyway. I don't really care that an unknown Finnish goalie was picked in the 3rd round. The chances of picking a player in that round are small anyway, not worth fussing over.

lots of people wanted hughes is that eating crow?

also Zadina is a fantastic talent. like he was looking like the most offensively gifted player on the Red Wings in the game i watched. definite ppg upside so a bit early to start saying people should be eating crow.

 

[MatchesMalone]

How much is said streaming site

I just looked it up. Telia is the name of the service. Looks like 24.95 Euro per month, which is 38.55 CAD. That can't possibly be correct?

 

[Frank8]

In your opinion, sure, perfectly fine. Not close in mine, one I don’t put any weight in.

Tell me honestly, have you ever paid for their fantasy report, prospect report or used Fantasy Hockey Geek?

 

[Frank8]

I just looked it up. Telia is the name of the service. Looks like 24.95 Euro per month, which is 38.55 CAD. That can't possibly be correct?

You can pay for individual games, they're not cheap.

 

[MatchesMalone]

You can pay for individual games, they're not cheap.

How much are we talking? I could figure it out myself but I'd rather not go through trying to translate everything.

 

[Micklebot]

lots of people wanted hughes is that eating crow?

also Zadina is a fantastic talent. like he was looking like the most offensively gifted player on the Red Wings in the game i watched. definite ppg upside so a bit early to start saying people should be eating crow.

I'd say the people who should be eating crow are the ones who were overly down on Tkachuk as an option opposed to those that just happened to prefer another player.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

lots of people wanted hughes is that eating crow?

also Zadina is a fantastic talent. like he was looking like the most offensively gifted player on the Red Wings in the game i watched. definite ppg upside so a bit early to start saying people should be eating crow.

It’s not early to say that people who thought tkachuk was not going to be good were morons

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Tell me honestly, have you ever paid for their fantasy report, prospect report or used Fantasy Hockey Geek?

They are the best fantasy site. Fantasy is a different beast

 

[Frank8]

If Jokke was as good at scouting as he seems to think he is he’d be in the HOF as a builder already.

Going in with a hard, condescending take on Jarventie’s production doesn’t make him look like an objective analyst, he looks like someone getting defensive to justify his take.

Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, the guy behind Moneyball, and probably the biggest influence on sports in the last century, (Time 100 most influential people) was a security guard working in a pork canning factory when he started writing about baseball. This idea that you have to be mainstream to be taken seriously is really limited thinking. The mainstream guys are the ones you should be looking at more suspiciously because they have a network obligation to create new stories all the time to fill a demanding news cycle.

 

[BondraTime]

Tell me honestly, have you ever paid for their fantasy report, prospect report or used Fantasy Hockey Geek?

Yes, I have. I don't care too much about the fantasy aspects, or fantasy rating, that's irrelevant in the draft.

I talk about the drafts and prospects here year round, I have gotten pretty much every source available reporting on and discussing both the draft, and already drafted prospects. Pro and junior.

I listen to the dobber guys talk on their podcast every time a new one is released, they have some very good guests on, I see everything they are writing about. They, the dobber guys, are not a group I would go to for their draft evaluations.

 

[Frank8]

Yes, I have. I don't care too much about the fantasy aspects, or fantasy rating, that's irrelevant in the draft.

I talk about the drafts and prospects here year round, I have gotten pretty much every source available reporting on and discussing both the draft, and already drafted prospects. Pro and junior.

I listen to the dobber guys talk on their podcast every time a new one is released, they have some very good guests on, I see everything they are writing about. They, the dobber guys, are not a group I would go to for their draft evaluations.

Fair enough, to each their own.

 

[Frank8]

How much are we talking? I could figure it out myself but I'd rather not go through trying to translate everything.

I'm looking at 9.90 euros but I'm in Europe, not sure about viewing in Canada.

 

[Frank8]

They are the best fantasy site. Fantasy is a different beast

They're way more than fantasy, they're using data instead of old school hockey thinking to assess players. The NHL has flirted with analytics but still hasn't had it's Beane or Morey to properly shake things up. Execs in other leagues have economics degrees, you see far less of that in the NHL, they're about 5 years behind.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

They're way more than fantasy, they're using data instead of old school hockey thinking to assess players. The NHL has flirted with analytics but still hasn't had it's Beane or Morey to properly shake things up. Execs in other leagues have economics degrees, you see far less of that in the NHL, they're about 5 years behind.

Hockey will never be like baseball for analytics. Completely different sports. Analytics don’t paint an accurate picture in hockey

if you compare guys like dobber and wheeler to guys like Hockey Prospect, to me it’s not close

 

[Korpse]

Well schucks - that’s surprising. I still trust our scouts over Jokke but dang it. From all I’ve read he’s been very good and not floating about picking up pity points.

I would love to look back at Jokke's hot takes from previous drafts.

 

[Micklebot]

Hockey will never be like baseball for analytics. Completely different sports. Analytics don’t paint an accurate picture in hockey

if you compare guys like dobber and wheeler to guys like Hockey Prospect, to me it’s not close

While that's true, basketball has started to see more analytics creep into player evaluation. They seem to be much further ahead than hockey in that regard, and probably a better analogue to what analytics in hockey could be.

 

[JungleBeat]

There’s a couple guys I’d take over him. We’ll see how he pans out though.

 

[h2]

I think we have all been guilty of believing too much in our own opinions and convictions before. Some seem to do it much more than others though.

Personally, I have learned in life not to rely on my opinions but to always look for objective information to support my claims. It's also something that is crucial in college. They're not necessarily looking for your opinion but more for what has been acknowledged as a fact on a particular subject. What you learn is how to develop a valid argumentation with the right methodology, fact support, etc.

We all have preferences and it's perfectly normal, but to cry/complain like crazy on Tkachuk over Zadina selection only has the potential to make you look like a fool eventually. Some people learn, some people never do.

When you look at a re-draft, it's never even close to what actually happened, or to what somebody's favorite source ranking was. Again, it's not an exact science and there is no concensus to follow. Teams try to hit homeruns on every pick (aka getting NHL players with varying degrees of good). They are definitely looking to do that with that Finnish goalie as well (with maybe not a lot of people who had him on their radar). Only time will tell if they were right or wrong.

Agreed completely.

The only other thing I'll add is players like Peterka/Grans, etc (the favourites to pick at #33) look like promising prospects, they also have holes in their game which is why they aren't picked in the first round. The consensus favourites at that point in the draft don't usually pan out which is the point I wanted to get across. The reaction to the Pinto pick last year was very similar and it's looking like a great pick. Beyond a certain point in the draft you need to broaden your expectations for what the team selects (I would say around the mid/late first round).

 

[Xspyrit]

Agreed completely.

The only other thing I'll add is players like Peterka/Grans, etc (the favourites to pick at #33) look like promising prospects, they also have holes in their game which is why they aren't picked in the first round. The consensus favourites at that point in the draft don't usually pan out which is the point I wanted to get across. The reaction to the Pinto pick last year was very similar and it's looking like a great pick. Beyond a certain point in the draft you need to broaden your expectations for what the team selects (I would say around the mid/late first round).

A very important thing that also seems to be overlooked is that we CAN'T have all the prospects we would like. We have to choose one.

The Senators (like any other team) are very aware of who is available when it's their turn to pick. They just go with the prospect they envision to end as the best NHL player down the road. This time, they put their money on Jarventie. That doesn't mean they think Peterka and Grans will be crap. Just that they were higher on Jarventie.

You can be disappointed that your team didn't pick your favorite prospect (because it would have been cool) but since everybody and their dog has a very different BPA list, how can you be mad at them? It's kinda ridiculous.

And agreed about the cutoff concensus. Heck there's not even a concensus in the top-5, so imagine at the end of the 1st or in the 2nd round.

 

[Masked]

Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, the guy behind Moneyball, and probably the biggest influence on sports in the last century, (Time 100 most influential people) was a security guard working in a pork canning factory when he started writing about baseball. This idea that you have to be mainstream to be taken seriously is really limited thinking. The mainstream guys are the ones you should be looking at more suspiciously because they have a network obligation to create new stories all the time to fill a demanding news cycle.

Bill James has a degree in economics and came up with things that were truly revolutionary. Plus, his writings were logical and seemed like common sense after reading them. Now we've got a bunch of hacks that want to be the Bill James of hockey despite not having the intelligence to figure out that baseball and hockey are apples and oranges when it comes to stats.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Jokke wants Jarventie to do well. He is really familiar with Finnish prospects .. more so than any other public source.
He has expressed before that he thinks Jarventie has all the tools to be really good and he just has to believe it himself and be more consistent with his effort and with more attention to the defensive part of the game . I would not read too much into his tweet on the secondary assists.. probably more of a shot across the bow at some Sens fans that gave him a hard time when he said Stutzle would be staying in Germany. I think he could probably provide a pretty good breakdown of his game so far at the Liiga level. If you have a twitter account .., just ask him for that, report it and then tell how terrible he is.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

While that's true, basketball has started to see more analytics creep into player evaluation. They seem to be much further ahead than hockey in that regard, and probably a better analogue to what analytics in hockey could be.

Still very different sports with no changes on the fly

 

[BondraTime]

Jokke wants Jarventie to do well. He is really familiar with Finnish prospects .. more so than any other public source.
He has expressed before that he thinks Jarventie has all the tools to be really good and he just has to believe it himself and be more consistent with his effort and with more attention to the defensive part of the game . I would not read too much into his tweet on the secondary assists.. probably more of a shot across the bow at some Sens fans that gave him a hard time when he said Stutzle would be staying in Germany. I think he could probably provide a pretty good breakdown of his game so far at the Liiga level. If you have a twitter account .., just ask him for that, report it and then tell how terrible he is.

Would be very childish if so, even worse look

 

[JungleBeat]

Why’re people outraged with what Jokke said

 

[Bileur]

Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, the guy behind Moneyball, and probably the biggest influence on sports in the last century, (Time 100 most influential people) was a security guard working in a pork canning factory when he started writing about baseball. This idea that you have to be mainstream to be taken seriously is really limited thinking. The mainstream guys are the ones you should be looking at more suspiciously because they have a network obligation to create new stories all the time to fill a demanding news cycle.

My point was that Jokke comes off as too big for his britches. That doesn’t mean he’s wrong, just that he’s full of himself. I also didn’t say anything about mainstream people or that their opinions are better.

Since you brought them up, do you see Bobby Mac dropping a deuce on any prospects that went higher than he predicted on his list two weeks after the draft? Do you see Craig Button trying to take away credit from an 18 year old for having secondary assists in the highest league in his country? It’s just unnecessary.

I get your point about Bill James but does that that mean TSN should get Monsieur Laflèche, the commissionnaire who works security at my building and tells me how great all the Habs picks are, to replace Craig Button on the TSN segments? Of course not.

Just because one person came out of obscurity to have great success doesn’t mean everyone’s opinion is created equal. I honestly think this idea that everyone’s opinion is created equal is a blight on society, it’s what leads to people saying things like “sure Dr Tam says we should wear them but I don’t believe in masks and they are an individual decision”. That doesn’t mean mainstream people are always right or that random people can’t be right but this false equivalency is wrong.