Rumor: 23-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part Trois: The Road to the Deadline

[NateTheGreat]

This place can be so gaslighting, so thank you for acknowledging this.

I call it like I see it. If someone points to a time they were right and others were wrong, you can usually do the same to them.

Looking back and seeing where you went right or wrong is great if you’re using it to try to improve your own process. But in my opinion it serves no purpose to bring it up in conversation as if it lends any sort of credence to your next prediction.

 

[henchman21]

Appreciate your well thought out posts today in this thread. Good reads.

I do wonder though, if Avs management has a "just get into the playoffs, anything can happen" mentality.

I mean, every year, almost every team has some roster weakness. Or two. It's pretty hard to go into the playoffs looking like the 2022 version of the Avs. For any team. And so much playoff success depends on unforeseen events, such as injuries, star players (at any position) going cold, 3rd string goaltenders coming out of nowhere to play Vezina-type playoff goaltending, etc. And then just the brutal two month grind of the whole thing.

I totally get the 'all-in' points of view that you, Pierce, RIAL and some others have put forth in this regard. I'm just not sure Avs management sees it quite that way.

A lot of people are putting the onus on MacFarland not being capable of going all in for one more cup - he just doesn't have what it takes. But is that really it? Or is he entirely capable of doing such a thing, but they simply don't believe in doing it?

A lot of teams live by that... but really when you look at teams that win the Cup, 90+% of the time, there is a formula for a roster. You can do it differently, but you need a 1C playing well. You need a 2C and likely a 3C for depth. You need a 1D and either a shutdown guy or a shutdown pairing away from that 1D. Need a high end PK forward and D. Need an average starting goalie. Need a star level wing. If you go down the list of say top 10 'needs' a Cup winning team has 7 or 8 of them and some are absolutely necessary. Now if you have those pieces and you slide into a Wild Card spot... yeah anything thing can happen. That's the Florida situation last year. Nearly all the pieces, and then where they lacked they had guys step up.

Also the anything can happen goes the other way too. You may have the best team in the league by a mile, but something crazy happens and you get swept by Columbus in the first round... namely your star winger throws a tantrum. That's why it is best to push as hard as possible for as many times as you can. If you can identify a legit 3-5 year window and push, you do it. These 7-8-9 year windows that teams preach are just not realistic. Each team that wins a Cup has massive changes happen within 3 seasons... so the ones that sustain, re-tool and have years they don't push. The ones that win multiple in a short time gave themselves a 3-4 year stretch to really go for it... they typically pay for that after.

I'm still in wait and see on CMac, but he only has until this deadline for me. By then we will know what he has, and the results from this season are his to own. Wherever that lands will determine how I think he's doing. I'm willing for one mulligan as a new GM, but two is not something that should be acceptable for a contending team.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Henchy is quite easy to figure out when it comes to players and team evaluations. It seems to follow this path

Team is well liked = team stinks
Team is hated = team good
Player is highly hyped on HF = player stinks
Player is unknown = player good
Player on Avs =player bad
Player on any other team = player good

You forgot a couple of important ones:
Player on other teams is over 30 = still good
Player over 30 on Avs = regression
Other team has injuries = why they are not doing well
Avs have injuries = all teams have injuries so they need to work through them.

 

[Bender]

Appreciate your well thought out posts today in this thread. Good reads.

I do wonder though, if Avs management has a "just get into the playoffs, anything can happen" mentality.

I mean, every year, almost every team has some roster weakness. Or two. It's pretty hard to go into the playoffs looking like the 2022 version of the Avs. For any team. And so much playoff success depends on unforeseen events, such as injuries, star players (at any position) going cold, 3rd string goaltenders coming out of nowhere to play Vezina-type playoff goaltending, etc. And then just the brutal two month grind of the whole thing.

I totally get the 'all-in' points of view that you, Pierce, RIAL and some others have put forth in this regard. I'm just not sure Avs management sees it quite that way.

A lot of people are putting the onus on MacFarland not being capable of going all in for one more cup - he just doesn't have what it takes. But is that really it? Or is he entirely capable of doing such a thing, but they simply don't believe in doing it?

Imagine being Nathan MacKinnon playing your ass off, carrying this team all season and then seeing all these other teams ADD and your managerial group is there thinkin'...maybe we'll still do well in the playoffs.

I think if that happens he asks for a trade to Pittsburgh. I think they'll probably need to overpay but they can't not get it done in a meaningful way this year.

 

[JH21]

Imagine being Nathan MacKinnon playing your ass off, carrying this team all season and then seeing all these other teams ADD and your managerial group is there thinkin'...maybe we'll still do well in the playoffs.

I think if that happens he asks for a trade to Pittsburgh. I think they'll probably need to overpay but they can't not get it done in a meaningful way this year.

So the season is over already and we will have to trade Rantanen AND Mackinnon? When will we have to trade Makar?

 

[Metallo]

I am also a big Prosvetov fan, you don't really see somebody as athletic as him with his size. The problem though is he might not have the IQ to go along with his physical attributes. He certainly has not looked good this season and his saving reflexes are pretty below-average as well.

How can you be athletic and have poor reflexes? To me an athletic goalie moves quickly.

 

[Alienblood]

As currently constructed, at least you have the Avs not making the finals. So you got at least one part right.

with a 2C things will change

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Besides EJ, what would a one stop shop be from Buffalo?

Mittelstadt
UPL
Jokiharju?

Is Mittelstadt option? PLD got 8.5 mil a season.. not sure I want to pay that much for 60 points.

PLD makes Mikkos future contract look cheap though

This team is just scraping by as top ten team right now. And that’s with Mack and Makar at their peak, and a relatively healthy season. Combine that with one of the worst prospect pools in the league and likely the worst amateur scouting group in the league, you got yourself a recipe for prolonged mediocrity after the next 1-2 years.

Exactly. Time is to go now or never. When we still have prime MacK, Makar and Rantanen.

Nelson is also the only one with playoff experience of the legitimate 2Cs discussed.

That doesnt mean those without playoff experience would do poorly. But some really struggle at first. Its a mixed bag.

Nelson makes a lot of sense.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

How can you be athletic and have poor reflexes? To me an athletic goalie moves quickly.

Athletic about physical condition and reflex hand eye coordination no?

You could have great physical attributes to be a goaltender but poor reflex/hand eye coordination

 

[S E P H]

How can you be athletic and have poor reflexes? To me an athletic goalie moves quickly.

They are two separate categories blud. Lundqvist was not super athletic, but his reflexes were insane (very rarely was he ever beat 1v1 with a shooter). Rinne was super athletic with poorer reflexes (to Lundqvist for example). Quick was both, very athletic with great reflexes for shot-stopping ability.

Athletic goalers move very quickly, which tends to take them out of position and opens many holes. The main aspect you're taught as a goaler is to put your jewels/pootie tang in the middle of the puck on a shooter's stick due to "cutting down the angle." If you're too squirrely because you're too moveable, your angles tend to be off most of the time. This doesn't explain why Prosvetsov is, he just has below-average reflexes akin to Grubauer's high glove. Some goalers just have weaknesses and Prosvetsov getting beat by many 1v1 shots when he started shows, to me anyway, that he isn't very good (as of now).

 

[Balthazar]

Rivals trying to get better

 

[EdAVSfan]

Selling teams are basically on 100% full hold.

No one is giving in and selling unless their price is met.
And buyers aren’t meeting their price.
Looks like we’re going to be waiting for someone to give in for some floodgates to open.

 

[BobRossColton]

@Colorado Avalanche
I think mittelstadt ends up 6.25- 7m.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[henchman21]

What a wild ride of a tweet

 

[The Abusement Park]

I mean... I don't see any reason not to send Mercer out in a trade for Saros, Mercer will be good but he's not a C I don't think and doesn't have truly elite upside to me. Markstrom I get, especially cuz of his age. But Saros you get a high end goalie for two cup runs at 5mil at the absolute most which is by far and away NJ's biggest need.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

July 1, 2023 was the first time that Mikko had to submit a 9 team no-trade list.

He's been in a what I've viewed as a funk the entire season. I wonder if this is playing any part, if it's weighing on his mind at all.

 

[Metallo]

Athletic about physical condition and reflex hand eye coordination no?

You could have great physical attributes to be a goaltender but poor reflex/hand eye coordination

Hand eye coordination is different from reflexes.

If your are athletic goalie it is usually ment you have fast twitch muscles and good reflexes, plus usually flexibility/range of motion.

I agree that you can be athletic and have poor coordination. Now I get want you ment.

Maybe Prosvetov is clumsy or lacks in spatial awareness, but I think it's more a question of (lack of) technique and economy of movement in his case.

Edit: Me realizing I'm speaking to someone else.

 

[henchman21]

Edit: Me realizing I'm speaking to someone else.

Which personality is it today?

 

[Metallo]

What a wild ride of a tweet

He's comparing apples and oranges. Mercer, Turcotte vs Byfield.

 

[Metallo]

July 1, 2023 was the first time that Mikko had to submit a 9 team no-trade list.

He's been in a what I've viewed as a funk the entire season. I wonder if this is playing any part, if it's weighing on his mind at all.

It should not, he had no trade protection before that. He should sleep better not worse. (And apparently has slept through many games this year )

 

[henchman21]

He's comparing apples and oranges. Mercer, Turcotte vs Byfield.

Yeah like any of them are even in the same realm of each other. If Trotz got offered Byfield and he didn’t accept, he should be fired today. If he traded Saros for Turcotte, same but different but same.

 

[avsfan09]

Henchy is quite easy to figure out when it comes to players and team evaluations. It seems to follow this path

Team is well liked = team stinks
Team is hated = team good
Player is highly hyped on HF = player stinks
Player is unknown = player good
Player on Avs =player bad
Player on any other team = player good

In other words a contrarian.

 

[Bender]

In other words a contrarian.

I don't think he'd agree to that

 

[henchman21]

I don't think he'd agree to that

Well played sir