Rumor: 23-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part Trois: The Road to the Deadline

[Spilot23]

Fire everyone if Rants walks for free

He will do a Stastny and sign in St-Louis.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Trading Rantanen before the summer of 2025 signals we have given up on competing. The team that gets the best player wins the trade 90% of the time. Trading him away before trying to win a Cup in the spring of 2025 waves the white flag.

Management may feel we have a better chance of winning in 2025 with Rants on the roster than we do without Rants on the roster 2026 and beyond.

Not at all, trading a Rantanen that the team can't or won't sign signals a commitment to the team to bring in talent to keep the contention going. Letting Rants walk for nothing is waiving the white flag.

Let's be honest, the only real option is keeping him, regardless of cost. But if a GM wants to keep their job, they won't let their star walk for nothing before trading them. When was the last time a GM survived something like that, Darcy Regier in Buffalo?

 

[Alienblood]

Maybe just maybe the Avs are trying to hit the big fish at 2C and not just a stop gap

 

[henchman21]

You can give up anytime now.

7.2 million Tage Thompson and his 14 goals and 33 points and a 1st for Rantanen and his 74 points.

BRILLIANT!! It keeps getting better and better lol.



Why waste my time?

Thompson is clearly having a down year, and using those stats to paint this picture is dishonest at best.

If we look for the last 3 years combined... Thompson has 58g and 58a for 116p 5v5. Mikko has 65g and 69a for 134p. That is a significant difference. Though if you excuse away this year (and you shouldn't fully), but then it goes TT 49g 52a 101 points compared to Mikko at 49g 50a 99p. All situations it bumps up to a 35 point difference.

There are two situations were the scoring is vastly different. First is on the power play. Which is tricky for Thompson because as a right shot with a bomb... he needs the MacK spot, but that isn't going to be given up. So he either will get 2nd unit time here or be a bumper guy. Mikko and Thompson both score goals on the PP at roughly the same rate... but Mikko is a much better passer where he basically doubles up TT on assists. Because of the time and unit, I wouldn't expect TT to make up that scoring. The other where Mikko has a 13 point advantage is against an empty net. This is a direct result of being on a winning team. If you win more, you face more empty nets. Buffalo doesn't win that often, so Thompson doesn't get that same chance. Given Thompson's defensive ability and body, I'd expect a decent amount of empty net time for the Avs. Maybe not Mikko level as he's on the MacK line mostly... but close. I'd expect that 13 point difference to evaporate.

Now saying all that... Thompson looks every bit the 40-40 or maybe pushing up to 50-50 center if healthy. At 7.2m that would be exactly what the Avs would need to have as a 2C that extends a window. If you can get Thompson for Rantanen... you do it every day of the week.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

We probably could use Cozens and he might do better than that at Avalanche, but true, trading Mikko for him is downright insanity. If we were trading Mikko, as in our third best player, it should be for someone like Petterson, and even then, it would be a sidegrade.

But it wouldn't be for Cozens alone though. Cozens on the Avs behind Mack and getting better match up could easily go back to being a 65-70 pts and maybe more.

This season we have Mikko at 9.25M and a 2C at 4M (Ryjo). It doesn't matter if Ryjo is being played at 2C or not, it is what is being allocated to that position. That is 13.25M between the two. If you have Cozens at 7.1M it gives you 6.15M for a top-6 W. The Avs scouts could find a 60pt W for that price with the other pieces we would get in that trade. We would give up a bit of production but the lineup would be much better constructed. It helps next season but it would help even more when Mikko would get his new 13M contract. At that time depth would be very difficult to fill without weakening our defense.

And we have not even talked about cap increase and/or Landy possibly being back next season.

 

[JLo217]

I’m ready for the dam to break

 

[henchman21]

As long as we have MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar we will be a top 10 team.

Kings, Caps, Penguins, Hawks all said the same with their cores. And really the 10th best team isn't a contender. If you're okay with not being a contender an just being a playoff team that is there most years and wins a round every few... then yeah, I'd expect that core to do that through 33-34. To be a legit contender... once Rants re-signs, it is pretty much over. It might be over today with the lack of depth really showing through, but that Rants contract is likely eat up the last bit. Then once regression hits (and it will), it only gets worse from there.

 

[Bender]

So anyone trading for EP40 (if he's even available) better double-check and triple-check their paperwork... make sure you don't get the D-MAN!!!!

 

[John Mandalorian]

Ottawa seems like a good trade partner even if its not involving Tkachuck. They have Batherson and Norris/Pinto/Greig.

 

[Perratrooper]

You can give up anytime now.

7.2 million Tage Thompson and his 14 goals and 33 points and a 1st for Rantanen and his 74 points.

BRILLIANT!! It keeps getting better and better lol.



Why waste my time?

I’m starting to wonder if you actually watch Avs or Sabres games.

 

[S E P H]

I am not an expert on ANYTHING related to prospects, AHL, but especially goalies (I'd leave that to much smarter posters like @Gigantor The Goalie)

He was a fan of the Prosvetov move, here's what he had to say about it when we claimed him:



Now, he obviously may not work out, but it's also possible that he needs/needed more playing time and getting the specific coaching w/ Jussi up here and Budaj down in Loveland.

I am also a big Prosvetov fan, you don't really see somebody as athletic as him with his size. The problem though is he might not have the IQ to go along with his physical attributes. He certainly has not looked good this season and his saving reflexes are pretty below-average as well.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I’m starting to wonder if you actually watch Avs or Sabres games.

All he looks at is production. He doesn't look at things like team construction, more sustained attack, team defense, etc.

 

[S E P H]

I could see Dallas grabbing both Seeler and Walker. Would help them tremendously.

The Stars have all the ability to win the Cup for the past 3-4 seasons including this year, but they won't go anywhere if their star players can't score/play consistently.

 

[Freaky Styley]

All he looks at is production. He doesn't look at things like team construction, more sustained attack, team defense, etc.

PPG is more useful as well. Thompson has played 11 less games than Mikko this year. Still, Cozens would be my preferred target from Buffalo

However, if you could get Thompson + a top 10 pick/Ostlund for Rants like Sabres fans are suggesting.. I think you'd have to do it. Or Cozens + 1st + Kulich/Peterka.. Not sure we will find a better deal/trading partner.

 

[Alienblood]

The Stars have all the ability to win the Cup for the past 3-4 seasons including this year, but they won't go anywhere if their star players can't score/play consistently.

Strange since so many here had the Stars as old and over the hill 3 years ago and the Jets as missing out on their window and it closing yet here they are.

 

[S E P H]

Strange since so many here had the Stars as old and over the hill 3 years ago and the Jets as missing out on their window and it closing yet here they are.

Many changes happen within an offseason, and that's why the Avs team two years from now will be different from the problems we currently face today.

 

[AslanRH]

For Rantanen,

Deciding to coast and reach out with your stick as far as it can go - instead of actually using your legs to backcheck is a great example of what everyone is talking about (except for a few who either don't watch the games or are actually related to #96).

This and extra this for emphasis.

 

[henchman21]

Strange since so many here had the Stars as old and over the hill 3 years ago and the Jets as missing out on their window and it closing yet here they are.

Stars (and Jets) are amongst the best drafting teams in the league. Just take the Stars, so while the Stars' previous core aged... they went out and drafted Hintz, Robertson, Otter, Miro, and Harley within 5 drafts. That is an impact player per year including a new 1C, 1D and 1G. Then found an ace in the hole with Johnston to give them 6 guys who could age into their primes and form a new core. Additionally they have 2 more guys who look NHL ready up front. When you draft that well, you basically create a new core and window as long as the previous contracts don't get in the way.

 

[Alienblood]

Stars (and Jets) are amongst the best drafting teams in the league. Just take the Stars, so while the Stars' previous core aged... they went out and drafted Hintz, Robertson, Otter, Miro, and Harley within 5 drafts. That is an impact player per year including a new 1C, 1D and 1G. Then found an ace in the hole with Johnston to give them 6 guys who could age into their primes and form a new core. Additionally they have 2 more guys who look NHL ready up front. When you draft that well, you basically create a new core and window as long as the previous contracts don't get in the way.

true but all those guys were already there and people still had them left for dead.

Winnipeg has some good forward prospects now still coming so they've certainly done well

 

[BleedWell]

There are only two centers that makes sense and they are:

Brock Nelson and Yanni Gourde. That's it.

Give 1st round pick + Richie + what prospects you need to give.
If one of those players is available you go and get him and we have two legit runs for the cup with this core.

 

[henchman21]

true but all those guys were already there and people still had them left for dead.

Winnipeg has some good forward prospects now still coming so they've certainly done well

There is a naturally tendency for people to pump up their team and talk down a division competitor... in the age debates of the past it this would subject was debated for like 200 pages and Dallas' work to draft well and build up a new core is the main reason for their success. They've been able to take some calculated risks on some other guys on the cheap to tweak around and then not have Seguin and Benn's contracts hurt becuase Robertson, Hintz, Johnston, etc have been such an extreme value. But Johnston and Harley are really just fully establishing now. For years, many discounted Harley and he's turned out to be very, very good.

I do think Dallas has quite a bit of age risk as time progresses, but their drafting has been so strong that they have continued to overcome it. As long as they can get out of Benn's contract next year without major pain, they should be fine. Teams can typically handle one bad contract and when the Stars draft like they do, it makes it much easier.

 

[chet1926]

To which the Avs will counter and say that MacKinnon is a center, and he still scores more. 13 mil/92 as predicted salary cap ceiling would be 14%. He's not getting that much, unless he wins the Conn Smythe.

They will meet somewhere between Pastrnak and MacKinnon, mark my words.

That's where they should meet, however it really depends on the player and their agent how reasonable they want to be.

Maybe just maybe the Avs are trying to hit the big fish at 2C and not just a stop gap

I mean it's nice to have this hope. However I'd say it's more likely that time travel is invented and prime Sakic, Forsberg and Roy all are willing to sign for league minimum to help our Cup run.

 

[MacKaRant]

When he's on and playing his best and putting forth his best effort, he certainly looks like a franchise player. That happens what 10% of the time, if that? Where as with true franchise players, it's usually the opposite where they look the part 90% of the time or more.

I've seen a lot of posts about Rantanen being 'lazy' or 'just not moving his feet' and we've watched him for EIGHT years, we know all about 'the regular Mikko Rantanen' and his strengths & shortcomings but for me, anyways - this season is different.

I don't have the advanced stats in front of me right now, but from what I recall, I think they back up what we're seeing with the eye test. Rantanen had excellent defensive metrics (top quartile) in 2020-21 and especially the Cup year of 2021-22, but they were bad last season and I think the for current season, he's sitting at a lovely 0% percentile (that's very bad) for even-strength defense.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Kings, Caps, Penguins, Hawks all said the same with their cores. And really the 10th best team isn't a contender. If you're okay with not being a contender an just being a playoff team that is there most years and wins a round every few... then yeah, I'd expect that core to do that through 33-34. To be a legit contender... once Rants re-signs, it is pretty much over. It might be over today with the lack of depth really showing through, but that Rants contract is likely eat up the last bit. Then once regression hits (and it will), it only gets worse from there.

Yhea, we have this year.
Then next year is a bit unknown because the Lando situation causes a lot of uncertainty about what cap room we will have.
Then in two years it is likely to be very painful... I think it will be our worst year in ages.
After that, it will all depend on regression. We will need cap to increase to regain depth, but time will play against us and by the time we have cap it may very well be too late and we will be in Pens, Caps territory.
So in my mind, we have this year and next. After that, its gravy. That's why I agree that it is so important that they make a big move this year.

 

[niwotsblessing]

Kings, Caps, Penguins, Hawks all said the same with their cores. And really the 10th best team isn't a contender. If you're okay with not being a contender an just being a playoff team that is there most years and wins a round every few... then yeah, I'd expect that core to do that through 33-34. To be a legit contender... once Rants re-signs, it is pretty much over. It might be over today with the lack of depth really showing through, but that Rants contract is likely eat up the last bit. Then once regression hits (and it will), it only gets worse from there.

His GAF quotient has fallen through the ice and out the other side of the planet.