Rumor: 23-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part Trois: The Road to the Deadline

[henchman21]

We should just re-start the rebuild now, catch everyone off guard and maximize value

I understand this is in jest… it brings an interesting discussion though. The Kings after their Cup win in 2014 were looked at like an inevitable dynasty for years to come. They had just won their 2nd Cup in 3 years, Kopitar and Doughty were 26 and 23. Many key players were 28 or younger. So LA kept the group together. 14-15 was excused away as bad luck and a result of wear and tear. 15-16 was a ‘return to form’ during the season then got rolled over on by San Jose in the playoffs. Then time really caught up… the team started regressing badly and coaching went stale. 2017 they start making changes to shake up the team. Blake makes tweaks and changes coaches… but it isn’t until mid way through 18-19 that they decide that a retool is really needed. They delayed 4 years to make significant changes and in that time had no real success. It then took 4 years to really turn around and increase the outlook. Now in full year 5, they are a team that has expectations again (though still no real success).

What’s the point of this… it is to show time flies. Hesitation on decisions or missing a year here or there adds up very quickly. Before you know it, the window is shut and a team that should have been primed for another 2 Cups has wasted away for a decade. Now with the retool they have an oddly built team with some major holes. It can be a good team, but the reliance on bargain bin goaltending might do them in. If they fail here and next year… they might just end up in the mushy middle purgatory for 3-5 year before another rebuild.

There are many ways to build winners, but I find this LA path very interesting in both good and bad ways. Would they have been better off pushing harder after the 2nd Cup despite imperfect seasons? Should they have torn down and rebuilt in the summer of 15? Was this path the right move in the fact that they gave the guys a change and retooled early enough to have a solid roster before the best two players in team history retire. I don’t know the answer, but this is just a very interesting case study.

 

[JH21]

So has Mikko taken over for Jost and Compher as the new whipping boy?

You guys are flat out insane. Criticizing the 9th leading scorer in the league and making proposals to trade him for Dylan Cozens and his 35 points.

 

[The Pwnerer]

A little different circumstances but if Rantanen wants more then Mackinnon, you simply trade him and turn it into the next Lindros trade tree.

 

[Perratrooper]

Just stop it.

Great insight man, really appreciate the feedback.

 

[dahrougem2]

I'm of the opinion that trading Rantanen does not slam the window shut because it potentially presents an opportunity to fill other holes on the roster.

If Mikko Rantanen gets traded and the Avs, whether it be in that trade or as a result of open cap space from that trade, are able to acquire a 2C and either middle six winger or young-ish #4 style defensemen, I believe we still have the pieces to compete. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are still two of the top five players in the world, Val Nichushkin is IMO a top-10 winger and pieces surrounding them like Toews, Lehkonen, a healthy Landeskog, etc are great as a supporting cast.

Lehkonen - MacKinnon - XXX
Landeskog - 2C - Nichushkin
Wood - Colton - Kovalenko
XXX - XXX - O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson/XXX
Girard - Manson/XXX

Georgiev
XXX

That lineup with a Johansen buyout has 13.745M in cap space. IMO that is more than enough to find the 2C (Mikko trade or UFA), re-sign Drouin or find a reclamation like him/Rodrigues again, and find another defensemen on top of a cheap backup goalie.

Is it as super stacked as our championship season? No chance. But IMO it gives the Avalanche a ton of flexibility, allows for Landeskog to return, gives the Avalanche depth throughout the lineup and - most importantly - doesn't lock them into what looks more by the day to be a Jonathan Huberdeau style contract.

 

[Bender]

I went back to the Sabres fans on the main board and they said they’d be willing to do either Thompson+one of Östlund or their 2024 first or Cozens+Östlund+2024 first+ additional valuable asset.

To me I’d pull the trigger on Thompson, I think he’d light it up behind MacKinnon and it would give us a pretty dynamic 1-2 punch down the middle while saving in the range of $4-5m long term and $2m this season.

we could run lines of:

Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Drouin
Nichuskin-Thompson-Parise
Wood-Colton-LOC
Cogliano-Wagner-Kovalenko

I know Cozens can play a decent two-way game and I think he'll improve in that regard still being pretty young but can Thompson ? I'm not too sure about that one. He's super talented but with Mack at #1C we don't necessarily need a 75-85 point guy at #2C.

As far as Ostlund, he's a really talented kid and a really good prospect... I'd be pretty surprised if Sabres gave him up in that kind of package, I'd do it personally. (he's #13 on Button's recent list)

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Most likely the case and in general probably will never happen. However, with Buffalo’s AGM scouting games there’s always a chance of a big move before the deadline.

I do think your BUF trade idea has legs for this summer though. Unfortunately that doesn't help the Avs this season. They would have to find a temporary solution at 2C for this season.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

I understand this is in jest… it brings an interesting discussion though. The Kings after their Cup win in 2014 were looked at like an inevitable dynasty for years to come. They had just won their 2nd Cup in 3 years, Kopitar and Doughty were 26 and 23. Many key players were 28 or younger. So LA kept the group together. 14-15 was excused away as bad luck and a result of wear and tear. 15-16 was a ‘return to form’ during the season then got rolled over on by San Jose in the playoffs. Then time really caught up… the team started regressing badly and coaching went stale. 2017 they start making changes to shake up the team. Blake makes tweaks and changes coaches… but it isn’t until mid way through 18-19 that they decide that a retool is really needed. They delayed 4 years to make significant changes and in that time had no real success. It then took 4 years to really turn around and increase the outlook. Now in full year 5, they are a team that has expectations again (though still no real success).

What’s the point of this… it is to show time flies. Hesitation on decisions or missing a year here or there adds up very quickly. Before you know it, the window is shut and a team that should have been primed for another 2 Cups has wasted away for a decade. Now with the retool they have an oddly built team with some major holes. It can be a good team, but the reliance on bargain bin goaltending might do them in. If they fail here and next year… they might just end up in the mushy middle purgatory for 3-5 year before another rebuild.

There are many ways to build winners, but I find this LA path very interesting in both good and bad ways. Would they have been better off pushing harder after the 2nd Cup despite imperfect seasons? Should they have torn down and rebuilt in the summer of 15? Was this path the right move in the fact that they gave the guys a change and retooled early enough to have a solid roster before the best two players in team history retire. I don’t know the answer, but this is just a very interesting case study.

I don't disagree with you, and yes my original point was in jest. I've kind of mentioned it before, I think management's half ass commitment to bettering the team for the majority of the "cheap" years was a major detriment. I think the real time to really go for it was 2020 and onwards. They should've loaded up every chance they got and spent as many assets as needed to do so. They had so much cap flexibility and did nothing with it.

This is my concern though. The management team barely seemed committed to going for it when they had assets and cap space. I fear they're going to just repeatedly wait for the perfect scenario to go for it and completely close the window of contention without really recognizing it.

 

[JH21]

I'm of the opinion that trading Rantanen does not slam the window shut because it potentially presents an opportunity to fill other holes on the roster.

If Mikko Rantanen gets traded and the Avs, whether it be in that trade or as a result of open cap space from that trade, are able to acquire a 2C and either middle six winger or young-ish #4 style defensemen, I believe we still have the pieces to compete. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are still two of the top five players in the world, Val Nichushkin is IMO a top-10 winger and pieces surrounding them like Toews, Lehkonen, a healthy Landeskog, etc are great as a supporting cast.

Lehkonen - MacKinnon - XXX
Landeskog - 2C - Nichushkin
Wood - Colton - Kovalenko
XXX - XXX - O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson/XXX
Girard - Manson/XXX

Georgiev
XXX

That lineup with a Johansen buyout has 13.745M in cap space. IMO that is more than enough to find the 2C (Mikko trade or UFA), re-sign Drouin or find a reclamation like him/Rodrigues again, and find another defensemen on top of a cheap backup goalie.

Is it as super stacked as our championship season? No chance. But IMO it gives the Avalanche a ton of flexibility, allows for Landeskog to return, gives the Avalanche depth throughout the lineup and - most importantly - doesn't lock them into what looks more by the day to be a Jonathan Huberdeau style contract.

You don't trade a superstar to fill holes with average dime a dozen depth players.

You resign Rants to 8x12.5 and trade Girard and Byram to fill out the roster because we have their replacements with Behrens and Gulyayev

 

[LOFIN]

I'm of the opinion that trading Rantanen does not slam the window shut because it potentially presents an opportunity to fill other holes on the roster.

If Mikko Rantanen gets traded and the Avs, whether it be in that trade or as a result of open cap space from that trade, are able to acquire a 2C and either middle six winger or young-ish #4 style defensemen

I find it unlikely that such a wonder trade exists, but if there is one then you absolutely consider it. I just don't think teams are interested in trading such pieces, if they were in a position of signing a player of Rantanen calibre. The problem is not only finding such a team, but Rantanen be willing to sign after said trade because that's what makes the trade in the first place.

Anaheim and Buffalo are teams that could fit the bill hockey wise. Anaheim could be enticing for himself as a lifestyle option. Buffalo? Yeah, don't know about that.

I still lean towards keeping Mikko.

 

[Bender]

Oh I can't wait to see which team wants to pay MORE than $2.5M-$3M per year for 30 year old Nick Seeler... (turning that down, his agent has some balls on him, I'll tell you that)

I was wondering if that was the guy that Landeskog told to "go back on waivers, you f***in' plug"... but that was nate prosser, I think. Lol same difference

It'll be like paying Nate Guenin a massive contract after he doesn't look so bad for a season and a half or Jeff Finger 4x4

 

[henchman21]

I don't disagree with you, and yes my original point was in jest. I've kind of mentioned it before, I think management's half ass commitment to bettering the team for the majority of the "cheap" years was a major detriment. I think the real time to really go for it was 2020 and onwards. They should've loaded up every chance they got and spent as many assets as needed to do so. They had so much cap flexibility and did nothing with it.

This is my concern though. The management team barely seemed committed to going for it when they had assets and cap space. I fear they're going to just repeatedly wait for the perfect scenario to go for it and completely close the window of contention without really recognizing it.

Yeah my fear is the front office truly believes this group has 5-6-7 contention years left. When in reality... it is probably 2, 3 at the most. I fear they will continue to play both sides and tweak a bit here and there to help this year and next, but won't do much to hurt years 4-5-6. In doing so, they ensure that none of the years are really as successful as they should be.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

So has Mikko taken over for Jost and Compher as the new whipping boy?

You guys are flat out insane. Criticizing the 9th leading scorer in the league and making proposals to trade him for Dylan Cozens and his 35 points.

Although we have been complaining about his play this season nobody wants to trade him because he is bad. The trade talks are because of cap issues helping the Avs to redistribute cap dollars at better place in the lineup, improving our depth throughout the lineup and therefore being a more balanced team. I do not believe a Mikko trade would close the window. I believe it would extend it.

 

[Perratrooper]

I know Cozens can play a decent two-way game and I think he'll improve in that regard still being pretty young but can Thompson ? I'm not too sure about that one. He's super talented but with Mack at #1C we don't necessarily need a 75-85 point guy at #2C.

As far as Ostlund, he's a really talented kid and a really good prospect... I'd be pretty surprised if Sabres gave him up in that kind of package, I'd do it personally. (he's #13 on Button's recent list)

Sabres fans somewhat backed off of the Östlund proposal and in suggested the first + Rosen (potentially balancing retired here). It’s a bit question for Thompson for sure and based on some of the game tape I’ve been watching your takes essentially jive with what I’ve seen.

To further elaborate though, I think Thompson can be passable defensively and electric offensively, he’s a line driver and can get it done by himself. If we were to be insulated by a player like Nichuskin I think the line would be more than fine defensively, however not necessarily elite.

Cozens on the other hand appears to be a lot less electric, but makes some more subtle smart plays and had a real knack for finding soft spots in defensive coverage. Right now he’s playing a bit of a winger/center hybrid mix with Mitts and him on a line with Greenway. From what I’ve seen Cozens tends to make the smart move more often than the flashy play and has a physical element to his game too.

If the Avs could land Thompson+2024first+ for Rantanen I’d have to do it as it makes way to much sense to me. Hell even Cozens+Östlund+2024 first+ is probably pretty damn close especially given that Sabres fans would consider a sizable plus to that.

 

[henchman21]

Oh I can't wait to see which team wants to pay MORE than $2.5M-$3M per year for 30 year old Nick Seeler... (turning that down, his agent has some balls on him, I'll tell you that)

I was wondering if that was the guy that Landeskog told to "go back on waivers, you f***in' plug"... but that was nate prosser, I think. Lol same difference

It'll be like paying Nate Guenin a massive contract after he doesn't look so bad for a season and a half or Jeff Finger 4x4

In a world where Jan Rutta gets 2.75m and Forbort gets 3... Seeler is correct in asking for more. That doesn't mean it is good value or anything, just what the market is at for good bottom pairing guys.

 

[Perratrooper]

I don't disagree with you, and yes my original point was in jest. I've kind of mentioned it before, I think management's half ass commitment to bettering the team for the majority of the "cheap" years was a major detriment. I think the real time to really go for it was 2020 and onwards. They should've loaded up every chance they got and spent as many assets as needed to do so. They had so much cap flexibility and did nothing with it.

This is my concern though. The management team barely seemed committed to going for it when they had assets and cap space. I fear they're going to just repeatedly wait for the perfect scenario to go for it and completely close the window of contention without really recognizing it.

It’s unfortunate we don’t have a GM with a similar mentality to Tampa or Vegas even. One who understands that we can go all in and then sell assets and re-tool on the fly or sell off the lesser assets that still have value to reinvest in other players.

I’m starting to wonder if CMac is a GM better fit for a club that is rebuilding rather than one that is competing. If he fails to make any substantial moves this year, you’d have to think he’s on the hot seat if we don’t have great playoff success this post-season.

 

[Miri]

So has Mikko taken over for Jost and Compher as the new whipping boy?

You guys are flat out insane. Criticizing the 9th leading scorer in the league and making proposals to trade him for Dylan Cozens and his 35 points.

We probably could use Cozens and he might do better than that at Avalanche, but true, trading Mikko for him is downright insanity. If we were trading Mikko, as in our third best player, it should be for someone like Petterson, and even then, it would be a sidegrade.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

It’s unfortunate we don’t have a GM with a similar mentality to Tampa or Vegas even. One who understands that we can go all in and then sell assets and re-tool on the fly or sell off the lesser assets that still have value to reinvest in other players.

I’m starting to wonder if CMac is a GM better fit for a club that is rebuilding rather than one that is competing. If he fails to make any substantial moves this year, you’d have to think he’s on the hot seat if we don’t have great playoff success this post-season.

Florida is another team that I think as been moving in the right direction. Sometimes their moves are a bit too short sighted, but they aggressive went after Bennett, Reinhart and Tkachuk, and they also gambled and won on Verhaeghe.

I still think the right move for the Avs should've been to go after Eichel. He's a top-tier talent and would've been well worth the risk to add to be the long-term 2C.

 

[henchman21]

It’s unfortunate we don’t have a GM with a similar mentality to Tampa or Vegas even. One who understands that we can go all in and then sell assets and re-tool on the fly or sell off the lesser assets that still have value to reinvest in other players.

I’m starting to wonder if CMac is a GM better fit for a club that is rebuilding rather than one that is competing. If he fails to make any substantial moves this year, you’d have to think he’s on the hot seat if we don’t have great playoff success this post-season.

Around here it will certainly be getting restless, but I'd be shocked if the Avs actually thought about making a change. Pierre was overextended by a year or two. Giguere got 3 seasons (which was 3 seasons too much). Sherman got technically 5, but really that was 4... and arguably a season or two too long. I'd say that trend would continue, especially given how CMac was a big part of the success. I'd be shocked if he got less than 4 years almost not matter how bad he did.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[JH21]

Sabres fans somewhat backed off of the Östlund proposal and in suggested the first + Rosen (potentially balancing retired here). It’s a bit question for Thompson for sure and based on some of the game tape I’ve been watching your takes essentially jive with what I’ve seen.

To further elaborate though, I think Thompson can be passable defensively and electric offensively, he’s a line driver and can get it done by himself. If we were to be insulated by a player like Nichuskin I think the line would be more than fine defensively, however not necessarily elite.

Cozens on the other hand appears to be a lot less electric, but makes some more subtle smart plays and had a real knack for finding soft spots in defensive coverage. Right now he’s playing a bit of a winger/center hybrid mix with Mitts and him on a line with Greenway. From what I’ve seen Cozens tends to make the smart move more often than the flashy play and has a physical element to his game too.

If the Avs could land Thompson+2024first+ for Rantanen I’d have to do it as it makes way to much sense to me. Hell even Cozens+Östlund+2024 first+ is probably pretty damn close especially given that Sabres fans would consider a sizable plus to that.

You can give up anytime now.

7.2 million Tage Thompson and his 14 goals and 33 points and a 1st for Rantanen and his 74 points.

BRILLIANT!! It keeps getting better and better lol.

Great insight man, really appreciate the feedback.

Why waste my time?

 

[JH21]

Yeah my fear is the front office truly believes this group has 5-6-7 contention years left. When in reality... it is probably 2, 3 at the most. I fear they will continue to play both sides and tweak a bit here and there to help this year and next, but won't do much to hurt years 4-5-6. In doing so, they ensure that none of the years are really as successful as they should be.

As long as we have MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar we will be a top 10 team.

 

[Alienblood]

Florida is another team that I think as been moving in the right direction. Sometimes their moves are a bit too short sighted, but they aggressive went after Bennett, Reinhart and Tkachuk, and they also gambled and won on Verhaeghe.

I still think the right move for the Avs should've been to go after Eichel. He's a top-tier talent and would've been well worth the risk to add to be the long-term 2C.

they did go after Eichel apparently and lost out to Vegas

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

they did go after Eichel apparently and lost out to Vegas

If I remember correctly, they inquired about the cost of Eichel, but then decided they were out when the Sabres wouldn't retain on his contract.

 

[Alienblood]

Oh I can't wait to see which team wants to pay MORE than $2.5M-$3M per year for 30 year old Nick Seeler... (turning that down, his agent has some balls on him, I'll tell you that)

I was wondering if that was the guy that Landeskog told to "go back on waivers, you f***in' plug"... but that was nate prosser, I think. Lol same difference

It'll be like paying Nate Guenin a massive contract after he doesn't look so bad for a season and a half or Jeff Finger 4x4

Seeler is pretty good, would like him here but yeah not for over 2.5 to 3 mil

If I remember correctly, they inquired about the cost of Eichel, but then decided they were out when the Sabres wouldn't retain on his contract.

I thought they were pretty close snd just lost out to Vegas.

Not replying to you but others who said we can't have 2 top paid C's. It shows that they considered this before which is a positive.