Rumor: 23-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part Trois: The Road to the Deadline

[Colorado Avalanche]

His last 3 seasons before signing the deal, MacKinnon was pacing for
41 goals, 110 points
34 goals, 111 points
40 goals, 111 points

For the last 3 years (including this one), Rantanen has paced
39 goals, 100 points
55 goals, 105 points
42 goals, 103 points

I'm not saying it's a drastic difference in production, but it's still a difference. And MacKinnon is a center, that commands more than a winger in this league.

He will get less than MacKinnon, at least on this team. If he wants more, he can sign elsewhere. To be honest, it's going to be hard enough to keep Mikko even if he will sign for a reasonable 12ish million.

In the end, both fantastic but Rantanen is the Drai to McJesus(in this case MacK).

Not the same. They work well together but one is still clearly the better player.

 

[henchman21]

The MacK vs Mikko debate on who is better when and what that means for the contact is rather irrelevant. What's most relevant is how much would a team be willing to pay Mikko, what is the cap, and how much is Mikko willing to trim to stay?

On willingness... there is a flood of cap space coming for most teams. The flat cap tamped down enough and cut enough term that as we get to the 92m cap, teams are going to find they have a lot of room to spend again. We started seeing it a touch last summer, but we will see it a lot more this summer and by 2025, it will be a feeding frenzy.

On that similar note, the cap should be close to 92.5m even the same 15.27% gives Mikko over 14m. Pasta's percentage puts Mikko right at 12.6. This excludes the impact of other things. The fact that the league wide McDavid cap was broken and we are walking into a world where the one ups are about to start until McDavid re-signs means the first 14m aav is coming. Whether that is Mikko, Marner, or Drai remains to be seen.

The willingness to trim is key to all of this. Most players seem willing to trim off a half or a mil to stay with their desired teams. Not always, but the majority of the time that is the right number. Just assuming Mikko will do 500k... that puts him somewhere around 12.5-13.5.

IMO Mikko will ask for 14 over 6, Avs will work with him to trim that to 13.25 over 8.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

There has already been quite a bit of discussion about how lazy Mikko was when he was getting a new stick on the PP last week. But here is another example on the Gogs goal against the Leafs. (I don't know how to embed video so you will need to click on the arrow beside Cogs' listing).

I can understand coasting so you remain in open ice for a pass but this was not the body language of a player coasting to remain in open ice. It was the body language of a guy saying "I've done my part. You do the rest."

Basically doing the minimum he can.

I understand. A lot of minutes and regular season is boring.

But I hope it doesn't become a long-term habit. Bad habits.

 

[henchman21]

Basically doing the minimum he can.

I understand. A lot of minutes and regular season is boring.

But I hope it doesn't become a long-term habit. Bad habits.

IMO Mikko has always had these habits. There is an ebb and flow to it (and this year is on the worse side), but he's never been a very high work rate player.

The poor man's Jagr really hits. Most people remember Jagr as the hard working guy upon his return from the KHL. What they don't remember is how lazy he was his last 4-5 years prior to lockout and how much heat he got in Washington for his work ethic. Hopefully like Jagr, Mikko finds he loves the game too much to give up and develops and elite work ethic.

 

[John Mandalorian]

In the end, both fantastic but Rantanen is the Drai to McJesus(in this case MacK).

Not the same. They work well together but one is still clearly the better player.

Yeah, except this year Rantanen may actually be costing MacKinnon, Makar, and others points with his lapses and indifferent possessions leading to turnovers.

What stinks about this is that you kind of wonder whether or not the apathetic TDL from MacFarland last year led to Mikko feeling entitled to take a summer/year off. "If the front office is going to mail it in, why shouldnt I?" Thats not exactly professional but a GM asking for a lot from his guys and then giving so little isnt exactly great either. It's kind of "lead from the back".

Its also worth noting that both Kadri and Rantanen had down years the years before their contract years. Kadri then had a down year after he got his contract. MacKinnon, however, can not be accused of such a thing and it makes you realize he's worth every penny and kind of taken for granted.

 

[LOFIN]

IMO Mikko will ask for 14 over 6, Avs will work with him to trim that to 13.25 over 8.

Assuming the cap is 92mil (which is what everyone is saying it most likely will be), that would be 14.4%. No winger is currently making that. Panarin is the closest (14.3), and he signed a 7 year deal in a market where every team in the league could bid on him.

No, Mikko will not make over 13 mil with the Avs, unless he wins the Conn Smythe. And probably not even then.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

IMO Mikko has always had these habits. There is an ebb and flow to it (and this year is on the worse side), but he's never been a very high work rate player.

The poor man's Jagr really hits. Most people remember Jagr as the hard working guy upon his return from the KHL. What they don't remember is how lazy he was his last 4-5 years prior to lockout and how much heat he got in Washington for his work ethic. Hopefully like Jagr, Mikko finds he loves the game too much to give up and develops and elite work ethic.

At least in football, these bad habits start to show badly after age 30(decline in level of play). You can kinda getaway bab habits to certain point. The older you get, the more you have to take care of yourself, just like Jagr did. He was obsessed at the end, because he had to.

Lazy Jagr is pretty good comparison.

Yeah, except this year Rantanen may actually be costing MacKinnon, Makar, and others points with his lapses and indifferent possessions leading to turnovers.

What stinks about this is that you kind of wonder whether or not the apathetic TDL from MacFarland last year led to Mikko feeling entitled to take a summer/year off. "If the front office is going to mail it in, why shouldnt I?" Thats not exactly professional but a GM asking for a lot from his guys and then give so little isnt exactly great either. It's kind of "lead from the back".

Its also worth noting that both Kadri and Rantanen had down years the years before their contract years. Kadri then had a down year after he got his contract. MacKinnon, however, can not be accused of such a thing and it makes you realize he's worth every penny and kind of taken for granted.

If you are a top player and all the help you get from your GM is ****** Eller.. I mean it's like a spit on your face.

It was awful for morale and motivation. We seem to be repeating the same this season.

 

[henchman21]

Assuming the cap is 92mil (which is what everyone is saying it most likely will be), that would be 14.4%. No winger is currently making that. Panarin is the closest (14.3), and he signed a 7 year deal in a market where every team in the league could bid on him.

No, Mikko will not make over 13 mil with the Avs, unless he wins the Conn Smythe. And probably not even then.

IMO if the Avs don't go over 13m, Mikko walks.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

IMO Mikko looks more lazy this year than the past few years. I'm not sure if he is but he certainly looks it.

But here is two things I noticed big difference in Mikko's game this season:

1. I have mentioned that already a few times now. He is much slower at moving the puck on the PP. Mack and Makar move the puck quite fast. When they don't and they hold down to the puck they are moving around the ice. Mikko holds on to the puck much more and stays quite stationary when he does. That allows the defenders to close in on him and put a lot more pressure on him. Defenders close in on Mack and Makar a lot also but they get away from them by moving their feet. Not Mikko which means he loses the puck often or he panics and makes a dumb play. He needs to move that puck much quicker which will in turn get the defenders moving around more and therefore get tired more quickly.

2. He fumbles the puck a lot more this year. A few things can cause this:
a. an injury.
b. lack practice of stick handling. If he did get more lazy he might have stop practicing that particular skill.
c. Change of sticks. I have been wondering for a few weeks if that is the case. IIRC Mack did this year and it took him a while to get used to it. Maybe Mikko changed as well and it is taking him much longer to get used to it. Maybe somebody has a way to find that out?

 

[BobRossColton]

Mikko just needs to go 8x11.5.

 

[LOFIN]

IMO if the Avs don't go over 13m, Mikko walks.

Then they should let him walk. I don't think it aligns with the comparables around the league, it doesn't fit the cap structure of the Avs in the future.

 

[Mighty Makar]

Trade Rants this summer, if he wants more than Nate.

 

[Balthazar]

Then they should let him walk.

That's CBJ with Panarin level of terrible.

 

[henchman21]

Then they should let him walk. I don't think it aligns with the comparables around the league, it doesn't fit the cap structure of the Avs in the future.

I can see the merit in that thought. I honestly don't think they can afford him structure wise at 11.5m moving forward, but I think the Avs will sacrifice other areas to keep him.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Provorov talks picking up steam? — The Fourth Period

Ivan Provorov has generated interest and could be dealt by the trade deadline.

www.thefourthperiod.com

 

[LOFIN]

Mikko just needs to go 8x11.5.

A fair number to him is around 13% of the cap, which would be 12mil in 2025 when the contract kicks in.

That's CBJ with Panarin level of terrible.

If the Avs front office is on top of things, this is what goes down: Come July 1st, they will sit down with Mikko (or his agent rather), and tell him this: you are getting a number between Pastrnak and MacKinnon. 92 million * 0.13 = 12 million. 12 million times 8, 96 million how convenient! 13% is a slight discount, but that's what you will have to give to the team if you want to stay.

If you want more than that (which you can argue for based on merit and comparables I guess), you tell us now because we ARE going to start exploring trades. Mikko has a 9 team no-trade list, so there should be options out there that he would like to sign long term for.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I think Mikko will land on 12.25-12.5 with us or 14ish with somebody else. Can see it remaining a hair under the MacK salary of 12.6.

It's Makar who will blow it all out of the water in 4 years, but we cross the road when it comes.

 

[BleedWell]

I don't know what the Rantanen contract talk is here.
For me it's been clear all along.

Rantanen will sign exactly the same contract as Mackinnon.
It just makes all the sense in the world. Crosby and Malkin did it, Toews and Kane did it etc. Mack is(at least now) slightly the better player so he has the bigger % of the cap at the moment contract was signed but on paper it looks the same. No one hurts their feelings and the show goes on.

 

[MacKaRant]

I think Mikko will land on 12.25-12.5 with us or 14ish with somebody else. Can see it remaining a hair under the MacK salary of 12.6.

It's Makar who will blow it all out of the water in 4 years, but we cross the road when it comes.

Won't that be Calgary's problem though?

 

[henchman21]

It's Makar who will blow it all out of the water in 4 years, but we cross the road when it comes.

At that point it won't matter. The Avs will be the Bruins of the mid 90s and Makar will be the Bourque. A team with a Norris level defender who is in the conversation every year, but isn't really a threat to move beyond the 2nd round.

 

[John Mandalorian]

A fair number to him is around 13% of the cap, which would be 12mil in 2025 when the contract kicks in.


If the Avs front office is on top of things, this is what goes down: Come July 1st, they will sit down with Mikko (or his agent rather), and tell him this: you are getting a number between Pastrnak and MacKinnon. 92 million * 0.13 = 12 million. 12 million times 8, 96 million how convenient! 13% is a slight discount, but that's what you will have to give to the team if you want to stay.

If you want more than that (which you can argue for based on merit and comparables I guess), you tell us now because we ARE going to start exploring trades. Mikko has a 9 team no-trade list, so there should be options out there that he would like to sign long term for.

Piggybacking off of this. Some might think, well if Mikko gets traded, he just has to wait a year. That sounds easier than it is. Just look at how guys try to keep their intentions to themselves during that last year. Look at Gaudreau, Lindholm, possibly Pettersson, etc.

The misery of being in a place when everyone expects you to leave is enough of a deterrant for guys to keep their intentions quiet. They know that one year can be quite agonizing.

So, there is some leverage here.

 

[sethro109]

29 points in 70 playoff games. .41 PPG. His career average is .48 PPG.

Maybe he ghosted us in the playoffs because we were without Landeskog or Nichuskin and one of them would have been on his line instead of Matt Nieto?

He had a f*** ton of starts in the offensive zone with MacK, Makar and Mikko as his line mates. He took all the important face offs for the Seattle series. This POS is terrible in the playoffs.

And in the Tampa series when we won the cup, his line mates were Nuke and Kadri. He's just not good in the playoffs.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Then they should let him walk. I don't think it aligns with the comparables around the league, it doesn't fit the cap structure of the Avs in the future.

By that I hope you mean to not give him that contract and trade because Mikko walking would be the worst case scenario for the Avs.

 

[BleedWell]

Makar has declined the last two years already. If he continues that we can have our new Tyson Barrie at 5mil/season few years from now.

 

[LOFIN]

By that I hope you mean to not give him that contract and trade because Mikko walking would be the worst case scenario for the Avs.

See my post

If the Avs front office is on top of things, this is what goes down: Come July 1st, they will sit down with Mikko (or his agent rather), and tell him this: you are getting a number between Pastrnak and MacKinnon. 92 million * 0.13 = 12 million. 12 million times 8, 96 million how convenient! 13% is a slight discount, but that's what you will have to give to the team if you want to stay.

If you want more than that (which you can argue for based on merit and comparables I guess), you tell us now because we ARE going to start exploring trades. Mikko has a 9 team no-trade list, so there should be options out there that he would like to sign long term for.