Rumor: 23-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part Trois: The Road to the Deadline

[Foppa2118]

I mean the stars D will look like this going into the playoffs I’d guess:

Heiskanen-Lindell
Harley-Tanev
Suter-Lundqvist

Tanev makes a ton of sense to add a good stable dman to pair next to Harley. Will basically be the same as us getting Manson to pair next to Girard/Byram.

I think Tanev is a solid move for Dallas, but I feel like we're overrating him, just to pile on CMac a week before the deadline, and further this narrative that the Avs need to go all in every year no matter what.

There's a bunch of teams that have gone all in every year and have nothing to show for it. Most end up shortening their window to win, which means they only have 2-3 years to win like CBJ, before they slam shut their window.

Which basically means they're relying on getting lucky that everything falls together and the team stays healthy enough to make a run in that 2-3 year span.

Tampa is the only one where it worked, and it's just as much because they had elite forwards, elite defenseman, and an elite #1G already on the team.

Meanwhile Joe and CMac have one Cup already, and have a chance at more with their calculated aggression that has given them a long window, which negates the luck factor, rather than just spewed aggression every year that gives you a 2-3 year window, and if they win another, they'll match what Lacroix accomplished going all in every year during the pre cap era, when it made way more sense.

They'll match what Tampa accomplished too, and depending on when they win, they'll have a shot at a 3rd Cup, which Tampa is unlikely to do because their time looks like it's coming to an end.

 

[MacKaRant]

I mean the stars D will look like this going into the playoffs I’d guess:

Heiskanen-Lindell
Harley-Tanev
Suter-Lundqvist

Tanev makes a ton of sense to add a good stable dman to pair next to Harley. Will basically be the same as us getting Manson to pair next to Girard/Byram.

That first pair looks SO much better than last year for them, when it was Heiskanen - Suter.

 

[AvsCOL]

I think Tanev is a solid move for Dallas, but I feel like we're overrating him, just to pile on CMac a week before the deadline, and further this narrative that the Avs need to go all in every year no matter what.

There's a bunch of teams that have gone all in every year and have nothing to show for it. Most end up shortening their window to win, which means they only have 2-3 years to win like CBJ, before they slam shut their window.

Which basically means they're relying on getting lucky that everything falls together and the team stays healthy enough to make a run in that 2-3 year span.

Tampa is the only one where it worked, and it's just as much because they had elite forwards, elite defenseman, and an elite #1G already on the team.

Meanwhile Joe and CMac have one Cup already, and have a chance at more with their calculated aggression that has given them a long window, which negates the luck factor, rather than just spewed aggression every year that gives you a 2-3 year window, and if they win another, they'll match what Lacroix accomplished going all in every year during the pre cap era, when it made way more sense.

They'll match what Tampa accomplished too, and depending on when they win, they'll have a shot at a 3rd Cup, which Tampa is unlikely to do because their time looks like it's coming to an end.

And what did they do at the deadline the year they won it? Lehkonen + Manson + Cogliano

Compare that to the other years they’ve entered the playoffs. They went for it that year and were rewarded. I don’t think they’ve even come close to that type of deadline any other year.

 

[BobRossColton]

I think @BobRossColton just wants to see a deal happen and I respect that tbh

Pretty much.

 

[Foppa2118]

And what did they do at the deadline the year they won it? Lehkonen + Manson + Cogliano

Compare that to the other years they’ve entered the playoffs. They went for it that year and were rewarded. I don’t think they’ve even come close to that type of deadline any other year.

Correlation does not equal causation, and that's a one year sample size. They could have won in previous years too if Landy wasn't offsides, or Kadri didn't get suspended.

Hell, they potentially could have won last year with a healthy roster. Only Vegas posed a threat IMO.

This is the luck factor I'm talking about. You can go all in, and then lose all the players the Avs lost last year, and then your all in moves are meaningless. You gave them away for nothing.

If you're a thinking GM, rather than a meathead GM, you use calculated aggression, and it gives you 2-3x the window to win, which negates the luck factor.

If you just spew assets every year, because you think you need to go all in to fix a team you didn't build well, you shorten your window, and have to rely on getting lucky that everything falls together in that 2-3 year window.

If the Avs had gone all in every year before they won, there's a good chance they'd still only have 1 Cup, and the all inner's would ironically be right that the window closed with MacKinnon's raise, and they'd be capped at 1 Cup.

By not throwing away all their assets every year, the Avs have a a great D core in their prime, and a potential cheap 2C in Ritchie, which will allow them to keep key players to their first Cup win like Val and Lehky, and give them good shots at a 2nd and perhaps 3rd Cup.

 

[BobRossColton]

I've basically decided our TDL won't be 2-4 useful deals. It's going to be a B grade move and D grade moves.

 

[Snow Arc]

Mikko Rantasesta tulee todella rikas mies: ”En lainkaan ihmettelisi”

Mikko Rantasen nykyinen sopimus Colorado Avalanchen kanssa päättyy kesällä 2025. Miehen seuraavasta sopimuksesta tulee massiivinen.

www.iltalehti.fi

Rantanen article.

Contract negotiations?

Rantanen's contract expires on June 30, 2025. Suddenly it seems like it's still a long time, but for the top players, they start talking about an extension in good time.

This is what happens with Rantasen too.

- Negotiations haven't started yet. According to NHL rules, one year before the end of the contract, further negotiations can begin. They will probably start next summer, Rantanen tells Iltalehte at the table of a cafe in the center of Denver.

Is there an option to go elsewhere?

- Probably not. I have had very good years here. There are so many good players here. I'm only interested in winning, that's the most important thing. In this team, many players are in prime time, this team will be able to win in the next few years, 27-year-old Rantanen answers.




So based on this, a small home-town discount coming? I hope.. He doesn't want to leave it seems.

Does he want to stay enough to make a good faith attempt at becoming a centerman?

 

[The Abusement Park]

I think Tanev is a solid move for Dallas, but I feel like we're overrating him, just to pile on CMac a week before the deadline, and further this narrative that the Avs need to go all in every year no matter what.

There's a bunch of teams that have gone all in every year and have nothing to show for it. Most end up shortening their window to win, which means they only have 2-3 years to win like CBJ, before they slam shut their window.

Which basically means they're relying on getting lucky that everything falls together and the team stays healthy enough to make a run in that 2-3 year span.

Tampa is the only one where it worked, and it's just as much because they had elite forwards, elite defenseman, and an elite #1G already on the team.

Meanwhile Joe and CMac have one Cup already, and have a chance at more with their calculated aggression that has given them a long window, which negates the luck factor, rather than just spewed aggression every year that gives you a 2-3 year window, and if they win another, they'll match what Lacroix accomplished going all in every year during the pre cap era, when it made way more sense.

They'll match what Tampa accomplished too, and depending on when they win, they'll have a shot at a 3rd Cup, which Tampa is unlikely to do because their time looks like it's coming to an end.

I mean Tanev is really good defensively, his numbers, even on a Calgary team that started the year pretty bad, are pretty ridiculous. He’s the perfect addition for them right now.

 

[Pokecheque]

I'm stuck on my G+1st for Ned+Petterson

I most certainly would not do that deal. You don't give up a first rounder AND Sammy for two guys who don't move the needle much at all. Nedejlkovic is a pretty decent backup, but Pettersson statistically is not really an upgrade on Sammy. They can worry about getting out from under G's contract later, that should not be a consideration at the deadline. All assets should go toward upgrading the roster.

 

[Foppa2118]

Eric Francis, a CGY analyst for Sportsnet, said when interviewed this morning that the team was also afraid Tanev would get hurt and they would get nothing.

That sounds like more BS though IMO.

They went the whole year without trading him, and they couldn't wait another week? Hold him out if you're so worried.

They were worried they would lose out on a 2nd, conditional 3rd, and a defensive defenseman prospect, who are always the kind of prospects at risk to never become NHLers in this day and age?

That just sounds like they're using Francis for damage control, over making the deal so early, and getting so little, because they didn't think they'd get more for Tanev by waiting.

 

[Pokecheque]

Either Craig Conroy isn't a good GM, or ownership is being meddlesome. Something really stinks in Calgary at the moment and it isn't the bull shit.

 

[Foppa2118]

Either Craig Conroy isn't a good GM, or ownership is being meddlesome. Something really stinks in Calgary at the moment and it isn't the bull shit.

My money would be on ownership meddling.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

And what did they do at the deadline the year they won it? Lehkonen + Manson + Cogliano

Compare that to the other years they’ve entered the playoffs. They went for it that year and were rewarded. I don’t think they’ve even come close to that type of deadline any other year.

Interesting that those three players we still have. Long-term plan over rentals.

 

[Pokecheque]

My money would be on ownership meddling.

Yeah me too.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Does he want to stay enough to make a good faith attempt at becoming a centerman?

That's too much work for his salary.

"We want to send the right message after trading away our 1C, 1D, and 4D, and will likely trade another top 4D."

Shittiest bluff ever

That also means the price for Saros will go up as there will be a bidding war.

Saros should get a good return no matter what.

 

[The Moops]

I think Tanev is a solid move for Dallas, but I feel like we're overrating him, just to pile on CMac a week before the deadline, and further this narrative that the Avs need to go all in every year no matter what.

There's a bunch of teams that have gone all in every year and have nothing to show for it. Most end up shortening their window to win, which means they only have 2-3 years to win like CBJ, before they slam shut their window.

Which basically means they're relying on getting lucky that everything falls together and the team stays healthy enough to make a run in that 2-3 year span.

Tampa is the only one where it worked, and it's just as much because they had elite forwards, elite defenseman, and an elite #1G already on the team.

Meanwhile Joe and CMac have one Cup already, and have a chance at more with their calculated aggression that has given them a long window, which negates the luck factor, rather than just spewed aggression every year that gives you a 2-3 year window, and if they win another, they'll match what Lacroix accomplished going all in every year during the pre cap era, when it made way more sense.

They'll match what Tampa accomplished too, and depending on when they win, they'll have a shot at a 3rd Cup, which Tampa is unlikely to do because their time looks like it's coming to an end.

Unless we trade Rants I feel like we realistically have this season and next to win the cup again. His next contract will cripple any ability to add meaningful depth. We should have been going all in going back to when added Soda+Nemeth. That's 2 wasted years now. We cant squander any more kicks at the can. MacK can't keep this up forever and worse case scenario, Landy comes back healthy enough to be 4W, were going to be even worse off.

 

[Ararana]

Ooof Carolina almost got Pettersson. Wow that would have made them scary.

 

[The Moops]

Ooof Carolina almost got Pettersson. Wow that would have made them scary.

Would have been a great move for them

 

[Nihiliste]

Ryjo obviously can’t skate, sometimes I wish our management was as more like Vegas. Just convince him to sit on LTIR until the playoffs

 

[Foppa2118]

Unless we trade Rants I feel like we realistically have this season and next to win the cup again. His next contract will cripple any ability to add meaningful depth. We should have been going all in going back to when added Soda+Nemeth. That's 2 wasted years now. We cant squander any more kicks at the can. MacK can't keep this up forever and worse case scenario, Landy comes back healthy enough to be 4W, were going to be even worse off.

I disagree. I think it will be tougher to win if they keep Mikko, but I think this team will always have a shot to win with a core of MacKinnon, Mikko, and Makar in their late 20's and early 30's.

I never agreed with the idea of regression applying to all players, especially superstars like MacKinnon.

Look at the level Stamkos, Kucherov, Crosby, Malkin (until recently), Panarin, JT Miller, Pavelski, etc, have played at in their 30's?

Nate and Mikko both take great care of their bodies and diet, and are highly dedicated professional athletes. If Sid can do it, so can Nate who has the same off season regime, and a better diet. If Malkin can do it, so can Mikko.

That's the difference between them and players from the past who regressed hard in their 30's. They didn't take care of themselves as well.

And at that point, a few years down the road, that's when you start to go all in every year, because you're coming to the end of the runway anyway.

If you go all in every year at the beginning, or mid point, you shorten the window, and run the risk of getting unlucky and having nothing or little to show for it.

 

[The Moops]

I disagree. I think it will be tougher to win if they keep Mikko, but I think this team will always have a shot to win with a core of MacKinnon, Mikko, and Makar in their late 20's and early 30's.

I never agreed with the idea of regression applying to all players, especially superstars like MacKinnon.

Look at the level Stamkos, Kucherov, Crosby, Malkin (until recently), Panarin, JT Miller, Pavelski, etc, have played at in their 30's?

Nate and Mikko both take great care of their bodies and diet, and are highly dedicated professional athletes. If Sid can do it, so can Nate who has the same off season regime, and a better diet. If Malkin can do it, so can Mikko.

That's the difference between them and players from the past who regressed hard in their 30's. They didn't take care of themselves as well.

And at that point, a few years down the road, that's when you start to go all in every year, because you're coming to the end of the runway anyway.

If you go all in at the beginning, or mid point, you shorten the window, and run the risk of getting unlucky and having nothing or little to show for it.

I don't think the window will be closed, but it's a different mentality I guess. It seems like you want to be competitive as long as possible, and I want them to go balls out for a handful of years and take the cup by any means possible. Hard to say what's the best, but it's hard to win like the Pens did where they had 2 windows.

I personally don't think we draft well enough to keep the window open super long, so that's partly why I lean the way I do

 

[dahrougem2]

Ooof Carolina almost got Pettersson. Wow that would have made them scary.

He is an RFA. If he was a UFA I get Vancouver wanting certainty but they control his rights.

 

[The Moops]

Is there a recent cup winner who won when all they added was an Eller/Soda/Nemeth level talent at the deadline?

 

[The Abusement Park]

Ooof Carolina almost got Pettersson. Wow that would have made them scary.

That is exactly the move Carolina needs to make. Them striking out on EP and Tkachuk could be cup costing moves.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Is there a recent cup winner who won when all they added was an Eller/Soda/Nemeth level talent at the deadline?

The Blues won the Cup in 2019 and made 3 useless trades all season long, with just 1 at the deadline.

Their big move was in the offseason getting ROR.