2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Grinner]

So, I see were off to a launch of HMS Titanic type season.
Hagans Martone Shaefer

 

[Gecklund]

I’ll take a guaranteed shot at one of Martone, Misa or Hagens.

Add Schaefer, McQueen to that list. Hell I like Ryabkin and Frondell too.

 

[matt trick]

Add Schaefer, McQueen to that list. Hell I like Ryabkin and Frondell too.

I've been all-in on Schaefer, assuming we didn't get #1, but Martone and Misa have both gone nuclear at 2ppg through 10, while he's been out with Mono.

Aside from Rossi, the only two OHL guys to do that in the past decade are McDavid and Marner. Even if they end up in the 1.75 range that adds Byfield, Tkachuk, DeBricat, Strome, and Perfetti.

Guys who have finished >1.65 in their draft year (if none, I added the leader):

OHL:
2024: Martone (2.22), Misa (2.1), Spence (1.22)
2023: Musty (1.47)
2022: Wright (1.49)
2021: N/A
2020: Rossi (2.14), Perfetti (1.82), Byfield (1.82)
2019: Kaliyev (1.52)
2018: Svechenko (1.64)
2017: Suzuki (1.48)
2016: M. Tkachuk (1.88), Debricat (1.68)
2015: McDavid (2.55), Marner (2.0), Strome (1.9)
2014: Bennett (1.6)

WHL: Showing north of 1.5 PPG (included Iginla, McQueen, Reschy Basha, Patrick, and Glass as point of interest)
2024: Schmidt (1.73), Bear (1.5), Reschy (1.44), McQueen (1.38)
2023: Catton (1.71), Parascak (1.54), Basha (1.44), Iginla (1.35)
2022: Bedard (2.51), Cristall (1.76), Benson (1.63)
2021: Savoie (1.38)
2020: Guenther (2.0- 12 games), Stankoven (1.67-10 games)
2019: Jarvis (1.69), Zary (1.51)
2018: Cozens (1.24)
2017: Fonstad (1.01)
2016: Yamamoto (1.52), Patrick (1.39), Glass (1.36)
2015: Phillips (1.06)
2014: Barzal (1.3)

Man, if Schmidt was 5'10 instead of 5'8 he might be a top 10 threat. As it is, I think he ends up late first or early second.

College: Included .75ppg and above- DY eligible guys are very rare.
2024: Hagens (1.33 in 4 games)
2023: Celebrini (1.68) (note: Smith, Leonard, Perrault were not DE)
2022: Fantilli (1.81)
2021: Kent Johnson (1.04)
2020:
2019:
2018: B. Tkachuk (.78)
2017:
2016: Kunin! (.94)
2015: Eichel (1.78)
2014:

McQueen 6'5, Martone 6'3, Schaefer 6'2, Misa 6'1, Hagens 5'11 (edited; thanks Leeroy!). Unless Hagens is the clear cut BPA, we should be adding some solid size with our next franchise pillar.

 

[LilLeeroy]

I've been all-in on Schaefer, assuming we didn't get #1, but Martone and Misa have both gone nuclear at 2ppg through 10, while he's been out with Mono.

Aside from Rossi, the only two OHL guys to do that in the past decade are McDavid and Marner. Even if they end up in the 1.75 range that adds Byfield, Tkachuk, DeBricat, Strome, and Perfetti.

Guys who have finished >1.65 in their draft year (if none, I added the leader):

OHL:
2024: Martone (2.22), Misa (2.1), Spence (1.22)
2023: Musty (1.47)
2022: Wright (1.49)
2021: N/A
2020: Rossi (2.14), Perfetti (1.82), Byfield (1.82)
2019: Kaliyev (1.52)
2018: Svechenko (1.64)
2017: Suzuki (1.48)
2016: M. Tkachuk (1.88), Debricat (1.68)
2015: McDavid (2.55), Marner (2.0), Strome (1.9)
2014: Bennett (1.6)

WHL: Showing north of 1.5 PPG (included Iginla, McQueen, Reschy Basha, Patrick, and Glass as point of interest)
2024: Schmidt (1.73), Bear (1.5), Reschy (1.44), McQueen (1.38)
2023: Catton (1.71), Parascak (1.54), Basha (1.44), Iginla (1.35)
2022: Bedard (2.51), Cristall (1.76), Benson (1.63)
2021: Savoie (1.38)
2020: Guenther (2.0- 12 games), Stankoven (1.67-10 games)
2019: Jarvis (1.69), Zary (1.51)
2018: Cozens (1.24)
2017: Fonstad (1.01)
2016: Yamamoto (1.52), Patrick (1.39), Glass (1.36)
2015: Phillips (1.06)
2014: Barzal (1.3)

Man, if Schmidt was 5'10 instead of 5'8 he might be a top 10 threat. As it is, I think he ends up late first or early second.

College: Included .75ppg and above- DY eligible guys are very rare.
2024: Hagens (1.33 in 4 games)
2023: Celebrini (1.68) (note: Smith, Leonard, Perrault were not DE)
2022: Fantilli (1.81)
2021: Kent Johnson (1.04)
2020:
2019:
2018: B. Tkachuk (.78)
2017:
2016: Kunin! (.94)
2015: Eichel (1.78)
2014:

McQueen 6'5, Martone 6'3, Schaefer 6'2, Misa 6'1, Hagens 5'10. Unless Hagens is the clear cut BPA, we should be adding some solid size with our next franchise pillar.

Hagens is 5'11

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1849137395569938703

 

[Hodge]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1849137395569938703

Hagens listed at 5'10.5". I don't see how any team can justify taking that 1st overall over Martone, Misa or McQueen. It's not like Hagens is on a completely different level than them offensively.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Hagens listed at 5'10.5". I don't see how any team can justify taking that 1st overall over Martone, Misa or McQueen. It's not like Hagens is on a completely different level than them offensively.

The #1 spot is Hagens to lose but it's not as locked in as Celebrini and Bedard were. I think skill-wise, there are a lot more NHL translatable skills to Hagens' game than there is to anyone else in this draft. If we snagged him, it at least provides the team flexibility with him and Smith that one of them can be leaned on as a center and the other moved to wing to focus on offense.

 

[JotAlan]

I saw many commenting that Hagens started slowly. Taking a good look at his start, it's close to Macklin's in the first 3 games.

Celebrini 3+1, 12 kicks and 28/50 FO%
Hagens 1+4, 10 kicks and 21/35 FO%

 

[Hodge]

I saw many commenting that Hagens started slowly. Taking a good look at his start, it's close to Macklin's in the first 3 games.

Celebrini 3+1, 12 kicks and 28/50 FO%
Hagens 1+4, 10 kicks and 21/35 FO%

Hagens is 7 months older than Macklin was and is playing with infinitely better linemates.

 

[wickedwitch]

Hagens is 7 months older than Macklin was and is playing with infinitely better linemates.

FWIW, he's not playing with Leonard and Perreault regularly at 5v5. The exception was the end of the second game against MSU when they need a goal.

But more important than raw production is the tiny sample size.

 

[JotAlan]

Hagens is 7 months older than Macklin was and is playing with infinitely better linemates.

Okay, he's half a year older, and I can agree that he plays for a better team, but saying that the start is bad is a fallacy.

FWIW, he's not playing with Leonard and Perreault regularly at 5v5. The exception was the end of the second game against MSU when they need a goal.

But more important than raw production is the tiny sample size.

On that I agree. The sample is tiny. But it's the only one we have at the moment and it's what Hagens is being "judged" for.

 

[Hodge]

Okay, he's half a year older, and I can agree that he plays for a better team, but saying that the start is bad is a fallacy.


On that I agree. The sample is tiny. But it's the only one we have at the moment and it's what Hagens is being "judged" for.

It's not a bad start but it's not as impressive as Martone's or Misa's start either.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

It's not a bad start but it's not as impressive as Martone's or Misa's start either.

It's only three games compared to 9 or 11, yeah? Not much of a comparison.

 

[vortexy]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1849595603598156191

Schaefer's first game of the season and has a goal, was out due to mono

 

[Bizz]

Let's say we win the first pick in 2025 again and Hagens is the clear cut consensus #1 pick, should we:

1. Just pick Hagens even though we are fairly set at Center
2. trade down to #2 (or #3 if it's not too risky) to pick Martone. If so what should be the realistic return?
3. Just pick Martone first overall

 

[gaucholoco3]

Let's say we win the first pick in 2025 again and Hagens is the clear cut consensus #1 pick, should we:

1. Just pick Hagens even though we are fairly set at Center
2. trade down to #2 (or #3 if it's not too risky) to pick Martone. If so what should be the realistic return?
3. Just pick Martone first overall

If he is the consensus #1 you either pick him or trade. I think the answer depends on Smith and Celebrini’s development. If they struggle pick the best player (Hagens). If they are developing into clear 1A/1B centers (ppg in the last half of the season) then you trade to some of the teams that have multiple firsts.

If you could get a top 5 and top 15 pick guaranteeing one of (Martone, Shaefer, McQueen, or Misa) and also pick up Hensler or a high upside RD then that would be more value than adding Hagens to Smith and Celebrini.

 

[Hodge]

Let's say we win the first pick in 2025 again and Hagens is the clear cut consensus #1 pick, should we:

1. Just pick Hagens even though we are fairly set at Center
2. trade down to #2 (or #3 if it's not too risky) to pick Martone. If so what should be the realistic return?
3. Just pick Martone first overall

Can't draft another smurf forward like Hagens when we already have Eklund, Celebrini and Smith. Just pick Martone 1st overall.

 

[Grinner]

Ooh! Ooh! I pick #2
What do I win?

 

[matt trick]

Let’s say San Jose ends up at 1 and Philly ends up at 3 and they are desperate for Hagens or Misa to play with Michkov. Grier wants Martone to staple to Celebrini’s wing for the next 15-20 years (creating a smaller Barkov/Tchachuk partnership). Philly has Michkov, Konecny and Tippet at RW and projects Misa and Hagens in the top 2. They’re willing to give up 3rd overall, a late first and two early seconds- they have their own, Anaheim, and Columbus’. Still get one of the elite forwards (in this scenario our guy, Martone) and get three other top 40 picks. Statistically you probably get a 4/5 dman or a top 6 forward, not both from those three picks in the 28-40 range. Is that really worth trading down even if your scouts are 9/10 on one guy and 8.5/10 on two others?

In any trade down within the top 4, I would want a major piece like another 8-12 pick or a Dickinson-level prospect, preferable a RHD or a C. Assuming the following end up top 3/4.

CBJ 1st+Jiricek
Philly 1st+Luchanko
MTL 1st+Reinbacher/Guhle/CGY #11-13 overall
Detroit+Edvinsson/Sandin-Pellika

Probably wouldn’t be willing to help Chicago or Anaheim, though if they’re top 4 they’re getting elite players either way.

Honestly, my hope is that we end up in the top 8 with Philly, Montreal, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Columbus, calgary, and Detroit. Keep McQueen, Martone, Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, and Frondell away from Chicago and Anaheim.

 

[Grinner]

Let’s say San Jose ends up at 1 and Philly ends up at 3 and they are desperate for Hagens or Misa to play with Michkov. Grier wants Martone to staple to Celebrini’s wing for the next 15-20 years (creating a smaller Barkov/Tchachuk partnership). Philly has Michkov, Konecny and Tippet at RW and projects Misa and Hagens in the top 2. They’re willing to give up 3rd overall, a late first and two early seconds- they have their own, Anaheim, and Columbus’. Still get one of the elite forwards (in this scenario our guy, Martone) and get three other top 40 picks. Statistically you probably get a 4/5 dman or a top 6 forward, not both from those three picks in the 28-40 range. Is that really worth trading down even if your scouts are 9/10 on one guy and 8.5/10 on two others?

In any trade down within the top 4, I would want a major piece like another 8-12 pick or a Dickinson-level prospect, preferable a RHD or a C. Assuming the following end up top 3/4.

CBJ 1st+Jiricek
Philly 1st+Luchanko
MTL 1st+Reinbacher/Guhle/CGY #11-13 overall
Detroit+Edvinsson/Sandin-Pellika

Probably wouldn’t be willing to help Chicago or Anaheim, though if they’re top 4 they’re getting elite players either way.

Honestly, my hope is that we end up in the top 8 with Philly, Montreal, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Columbus, calgary, and Detroit. Keep McQueen, Martone, Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, and Frondell away from Chicago and Anaheim.

I'd look to try and snag MBN from Det.
Nice list

 

[Hodge]

Let’s say San Jose ends up at 1 and Philly ends up at 3 and they are desperate for Hagens or Misa to play with Michkov. Grier wants Martone to staple to Celebrini’s wing for the next 15-20 years (creating a smaller Barkov/Tchachuk partnership). Philly has Michkov, Konecny and Tippet at RW and projects Misa and Hagens in the top 2. They’re willing to give up 3rd overall, a late first and two early seconds- they have their own, Anaheim, and Columbus’. Still get one of the elite forwards (in this scenario our guy, Martone) and get three other top 40 picks. Statistically you probably get a 4/5 dman or a top 6 forward, not both from those three picks in the 28-40 range. Is that really worth trading down even if your scouts are 9/10 on one guy and 8.5/10 on two others?

In any trade down within the top 4, I would want a major piece like another 8-12 pick or a Dickinson-level prospect, preferable a RHD or a C. Assuming the following end up top 3/4.

CBJ 1st+Jiricek
Philly 1st+Luchanko
MTL 1st+Reinbacher/Guhle/CGY #11-13 overall
Detroit+Edvinsson/Sandin-Pellika

Probably wouldn’t be willing to help Chicago or Anaheim, though if they’re top 4 they’re getting elite players either way.

Honestly, my hope is that we end up in the top 8 with Philly, Montreal, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Columbus, calgary, and Detroit. Keep McQueen, Martone, Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, and Frondell away from Chicago and Anaheim.

It's not worth the risk of missing out on Martone (or whoever we want) just to add a mid prospect. If we're lucky enough to get 1st overall again we should absolutely keep it and make the pick. The only offer that would make me think is if a team like Columbus or Chicago offered their unprotected 2026 1st in exchange for trading up but that's not going to happen.

 

[spintops]

If Hagens is the undisputed number 1 pick and projects to be a franchise #1C you just take him unless you get a haul of a trade.

 

[Friday]

If Hagens is the undisputed number 1 pick and projects to be a franchise #1C you just take him unless you get a haul of a trade.

I mean shit, can we take him and trade him for someones 1# D at that point haha

 

[Grinner]

I mean shit, can we take him and trade him for someones 1# D at that point haha

I'd suspect any true 1D would be locked up with a nice at the least
We could take Hagans at 1oa. And still shop him prior to picks 2 or 3 are taken. If nothing comes about, then we're still getting the supposed best player from the draft.

 

[Shark Finn]

We could take Hagans at 1oa. And still shop him prior to picks 2 or 3 are taken. If nothing comes about, then we're still getting the supposed best player from the draft.

Now that's a proper way to begin a relationship with a player. Not going to happen. 1st overall picks don't get traded anyway, nevertheless 1st overall pick players, in a way like this.