Red Sox/MLB 2025 Hot Stove - Mets land Juan Soto on 15-year, $765M deal

[Chevalier du Clavier]

pitching, pitching and more pitching

Houck fell off a cliff last season in the 2nd half. Bello was good but not great and Crawford is a back of the rotation guy and who knows what we have in Giolito.

Call me greedy but I want Burnes & Crochet

He did? He had six starts out of 30 in which he gave up 4 or more earned runs, none of which were consecutive. In fairness, there were three consecutive starts in late July and early August in which the opposition 4, 4 (3 earned), and 6 runs. Source:

Tanner Houck - Pitching Game Logs | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[ON3M4N]

He did? He had six starts out of 30 in which he gave up 4 or more earned runs, none of which were consecutive. In fairness, there were three consecutive starts in late July and early August in which the opposition 4, 4 (3 earned), and 6 runs. Source:

Tanner Houck - Pitching Game Logs | FanGraphs Baseball

Post AS Break....

Opp BA went up
Opp SLG went up
BB went up
HR went up
SO went down

 

[wintersej]

View attachment 942897

Post AS Break....

Opp BA went up
Opp SLG went up
BB went up
HR went up
SO went down

Sure but over 11 starts, those 3 jack up all the numbers.

 

[chizzler]

So, respectfully, what's your point?

I think you were telling me that the dodgers already won because of him. So he’s worth that money. I was saying that he didn’t pitch when won, if I’m not wrong. Soto is just a one position guy not a unicorn, like they say. Generally, I don’t like these long term deals.

 

[EverettMike]

I think you were telling me that the dodgers already won because of him. So he’s worth that money. I was saying that he didn’t pitch when won, if I’m not wrong. Soto is just a one position guy not a unicorn, like they say. Generally, I don’t like these long term deals.

You said, "This type of money sinks teams."

But the Dodgers just gave out this exact type of contract, and, even though, as you correctly point out, LA didn't even get the deal's full value because Ohtani didn't pitch, it didn't sink them at all.

Can they sink a team? Sure. But they can also help a team win a World Series. The Sox won two with Manny's enormous deal on the books.

 

[ON3M4N]

Sure but over 11 starts, those 3 jack up all the numbers.

Even if you break it down to a per plate appearance to equalize them, his numbers in the 2nd half were worse.

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

Even if you break it down to a per plate appearance to equalize them, his numbers in the 2nd half were worse.

Our definitions of falling off a cliff differ.

 

[ON3M4N]

Our definitions of falling off a cliff differ.

Sounds like it.

 

[GatorMike]

 

[EverettMike]

Sad I'm at a point where I figure the Blue Jays are more likely to sign a coveted FA.

 

[Donnie Shulzhoffer]

 

[GatorMike]

Sad I'm at a point where I figure the Blue Jays are more likely to sign a coveted FA.

We'll see.

I think the Sox have a couple of factors in their favor here, but I'm not sure it'll be enough.

 

[EverettMike]

We'll see.

I think the Sox have a couple of factors in their favor here, but I'm not sure it'll be enough.

At this point I'm going to need to see it to believe it. The Interest Kings don't get credit or instill confidence, for constantly coming in second or third with free agents.

 

[yazmybaby]

Sad I'm at a point where I figure the Blue Jays are more likely to sign a coveted FA.

The natives are getting restless....we better sign someone decent soon.
IMO Fried is the perfect fit for us / but I think he ends up with the Yanks and we get Burnes.

 

[gerrycheeversmask]

The natives are getting restless....we better sign someone decent soon.
IMO Fried is the perfect fit for us / but I think he ends up with the Yanks and we get Burnes.

Fried is the guy I want. I don't think we get either one. I hope the Sox prove me wrong.

 

[EverettMike]

The natives are getting restless....we better sign someone decent soon.
IMO Fried is the perfect fit for us / but I think he ends up with the Yanks and we get Burnes.

I'm not even desperate for them to "sign anyone." I just want them to go back to being a financial powerhouse and playing with the big boys where they should be.

 

[GatorMike]

 

[DKH]

The natives are getting restless....we better sign someone decent soon.
IMO Fried is the perfect fit for us / but I think he ends up with the Yanks and we get Burnes.

Burnes? Really

Give me Eovoldi and Pivetta at this point

If they only add a backup catcher but get 2 decent pitchers I’m good

 

[Smitty93]

I feel like we're not going to see them return to being a financial powerhouse until they find a competitive advantage that requires spending. In the early days of FSG's ownership, you didn't really see a plateau in ROI as you increased investment. With the changes in baseball economics, that's changed. They'll spend right up until the ROI plateaus and then stop.

It's difficult to expect that to change because information is so much more widely available now, so it's unlikely that they'll find some secret spending inefficiency to take advantage of.

 

[GatorMike]

At this point I'm going to need to see it to believe it. The Interest Kings don't get credit or instill confidence, for constantly coming in second or third with free agents.

That's fair.

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

 

[McGarnagle]

I feel like we're not going to see them return to being a financial powerhouse until they find a competitive advantage that requires spending. In the early days of FSG's ownership, you didn't really see a plateau in ROI as you increased investment. With the changes in baseball economics, that's changed. They'll spend right up until the ROI plateaus and then stop.

It's difficult to expect that to change because information is so much more widely available now, so it's unlikely that they'll find some secret spending inefficiency to take advantage of.

The first thing Henry did as owner was hire Billy Beane, who changed his mind a day later, then his protege Theo Epstein. It was all about getting those market inefficiencies with more of a budget than Oakland. But now in the age of advanced stats and analytical departments, it's harder to find hidden gems because they're not very hidden. So it's all about money and team-player relationships - they've been hesitant to spend the former and have made a mess of the latter after the Mookie and Sale deals. They're in a bind and really need to break the idea that they're also-rans in the market, even if it means technically "overpaying" for a guy like a Fried or Burnes to open up the floodgates for future free agents.

 

[Smitty93]

The first thing Henry did as owner was hire Billy Beane, who changed his mind a day later, then his protege Theo Epstein. It was all about getting those market inefficiencies with more of a budget than Oakland. But now in the age of advanced stats and analytical departments, it's harder to find hidden gems because they're not very hidden. So it's all about money and team-player relationships - they've been hesitant to spend the former and have made a mess of the latter after the Mookie and Sale deals. They're in a bind and really need to break the idea that they're also-rans in the market, even if it means technically "overpaying" for a guy like a Fried or Burnes to open up the floodgates for future free agents.

They really need to stop having disaster, last place seasons. I wasn't born the last time the Yankees and Dodgers finished in last place in their divisions.

Red Sox have finished in last place 6 of the past 13 seasons. The lowest their payroll has been in that period is 13th (2023). Of the 6 last place seasons, they had a top 6 payroll in 5 of them. Yes, in 3 of those they were only slightly below 0.500, but you've got to compete. They let seasons spiral and there's an organizational culture that lets it happen that regardless of manager or GM/CBO (though credit to Dombrowski for being the exception, though he was also the only one who got teams with the highest payroll in baseball).

 

[GatorMike]

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

That would be a nice start.