OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[kicksavedave]

I'm already at peace here at this point.

I despise knee jerk reactions but man the below raises all kinda f'no.

Yeah, there's nothing in that video that makes me think "That's the guy I want to bet my team on". I can just sense the maturity issues when things get tough, and they will.

 

[g00n]

Yeah, there's nothing in that video that makes me think "That's the guy I want to bet my team on". I can just sense the maturity issues when things get tough, and they will.

I don't get the issue with this video. It's a GQ series where celebs talk about their day to day swag items etc. There are hundreds of them. Seems pretty spot on for a top college QB trying to fit the format.

TBH, he actually impresses me a bit with his ability to talk about this stuff frankly, including as it relates to his family and personal goals.

My only concern is all the damn sugar he's eating. lol Then again, it works for Ovie and Marshawn Lynch so what do I know.

 

[EroCaps]

Yeah. Stay at 2 and take Drake Maye. Don’t trade up for the the man baby or take another Q-tip running QB.

It’s so f***ing easy to make this call.

 

[Bananas]

PFF updated their big board and Maye is at 3 and Daniels 22

 

[RedRocking]

Yeah. Stay at 2 and take Drake Maye. Don’t trade up for the the man baby or take another Q-tip running QB.

It’s so f***ing easy to make this call.

Yea, even if they were to take Maye and he didn’t pan out (for whatever reason), I wouldn’t be mad at the FO, as I would understand the process and thinking.

But Daniels was projected ~ 3rd rounder before he had this one great season as a 5th year starter. Throwing to 2 elite 1st round WRs, behind one of the best OLs in the country (semi-finalist for the Joe Moore Award).

His one elite NFL trait is his speed - so he’ll need to run to max his value. But he’s a toothpick, who doesn’t slide. And it’s hard to bank on him bulking up much more as a 23-24 y/o. He has adequate NFL arm talent, but nothing special. By his 2nd contract he’ll be 28, and likely losing that speed/athleticism.

So, for me, it boils down to stylistic choices. Do you want to build your offense around a running QB (like the Ravens). Or do you bet on the prototypical pocket passer, that is athletic enough to extend plays when needed. I’d bet on the latter every time.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I keep running sims trying to play rounds 2-4
We have 6 picks in the top 102. Its hard to get a bad draft class but its always different. Sometimes a Gem drops and sometimes all the OL has been picked.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft

 

[Holtbyisms]

PFF updated their big board and Maye is at 3 and Daniels 22

That's more accurate than Daniels anywhere in the conversation with Maye.

 

[EroCaps]

Yea, even if they were to take Maye and he didn’t pan out (for whatever reason), I wouldn’t be mad at the FO, as I would understand the process and thinking.

But Daniels was projected ~ 3rd rounder before he had this one great season as a 5th year starter. Throwing to 2 elite 1st round WRs, behind one of the best OLs in the country (semi-finalist for the Joe Moore Award).

His one elite NFL trait is his speed - so he’ll need to run to max his value. But he’s a toothpick, who doesn’t slide. And it’s hard to bank on him bulking up much more as a 23-24 y/o. He has adequate NFL arm talent, but nothing special. By his 2nd contract he’ll be 28, and likely losing that speed/athleticism.

So, for me, it boils down to stylistic choices. Do you want to build your offense around a running QB (like the Ravens). Or do you bet on the prototypical pocket passer, that is athletic enough to extend plays when needed. I’d bet on the latter every time.

Good point on the contract.

Also a lot of fans are glossing over the 2-3 years of development that Daniels has on Maye. JD is currently the same age as Trevor Lawrence. Who’s been in the NFL for 3 years.

Imagine how much Maye would be torching college defenses if he was a 5 year player in 2026-2027?

He’d been the highest rated QB prospect to ever come out of the draft.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

PFF updated their big board and Maye is at 3 and Daniels 22

That’s just pure rankings though, not a mock right?

 

[Bananas]

I really like the WRs who could be available R2. We could definitely use speed or size there.

I feel like if the right OL are off the board, we’ll go EDGE or WR or LB.

 

[kicksavedave]

Imagine how much Maye would be torching college defenses if he was a 5 year player in 2026-2027?

He’d been the highest rated QB prospect to ever come out of the draft.

And yet, DM actually regressed from 2022 to 23. It's not automatic that players get better each year. QBs who regressed in their draft year have an incredibly bad track record in the NFL.

Daniels has more than just speed a talent. He's significantly more accurate than DM, and accuracy is one of the strongest indicators of NFL success.

JD is also much better under pressure than DM. The eye test and the advanced stats both prove this out. He simply makes much better decisions than Maye, makes fewer turnover worthy plays.

 

[Ridley Simon]

And yet, DM actually regressed from 2022 to 23. It's not automatic that players get better each year. QBs who regressed in their draft year have an incredibly bad track record in the NFL.

Daniels has more than just speed a talent. He's significantly more accurate than DM, and accuracy is one of the strongest indicators of NFL success.

JD is also much better under pressure than DM. The eye test and the advanced stats both prove this out. He simply makes much better decisions than Maye, makes fewer turnover worthy plays.

Didn’t one of the gazillion graphs/charts/percentages/peg-boards have something that showed Maye actually has the least TO% type plays? Or am I misreading something

 

[Jags]

And yet, DM actually regressed from 2022 to 23.

As if that's not attributable to the things that changed with his team in 2023. How his stats held up despite learning a new offense and the decline of his offensive line and receiving corps is a testament to his ability to adapt, which will help him at the next level.

Context matters. His TEAM regressed. His corresponding regression was FAR less by comparison. He held up mightily under the circumstances. Daniels had a standout O-line and two of the best receivers in college. The pressure Daniels saw was typically the predictable result of a collapsing pocket, sometimes by design. The pressure Maye saw last year was far more haphazard and immediate.

Doing well when you're supposed to doesn't impress me. Doing well when the odds are stacked against you? That's a character trait I admire.

 

[Roric]

Yeah, there's nothing in that video that makes me think "That's the guy I want to bet my team on". I can just sense the maturity issues when things get tough, and they will.

This seems like reaching to me. What’s so off-putting about the video? I didn’t sense any maturity issues here. Guy is well-spoken and articulate

 

[RedRocking]

You know what’s fun? Watching full game condensed cuts of the UNC and LSU offenses. As a believer in the eye test for QBs, it’s nice to see more game context than just random highlights or play breakdowns.

Just google “2023 LSU offense vs…”. Each game only takes ~ 10 mins. Good for hockey intermissions.

Here are a couple examples I just watched. And to be fair, I picked one where DM threw 2 picks. And Daniels is awesome vs Ole Miss.

 

[Bananas]

Yeah Daniels grew on me in the full game clips. He’s poised and keeps his balance under pressure. I likw him a lot.

As some have mentioned, I think Maye in two years will have better footwork. I think he has a chance to be an elite pocket passer if you give him a solid line.

It’s a win-win imo. Both have huge upside. Daniels is ahead today but I think Maye perhaps projects a little better.

So pumped we got N2OA. Thank you Jets, EB and Rivera!

 

[Holtbyisms]

I think too many people are assuming Maye is a pure pocket guy when in fact he's not. He's going to run in the low/mid 4.6s at the combine which will put him faster than most of the guys he's often compared to. He's no Lamar Jackson but he's certainly not Daniel Jones either. His biggest weakness is Brett Favre syndrome where he tries to do too much. That doesn't concern me. Look at the INT leaders in the NFL last season, you've got Mahomes, Allen, Tua, Hurts all in the top 5 (with Howell). You want a guy who knows he can make all the throws. Confidence is key to success at the QB position. We can get a game manager anywhere. Give me the gun slinger any day of the week.

 

[usiel]

Yeah Daniels grew on me in the full game clips. He’s poised and keeps his balance under pressure. I likw him a lot.

As some have mentioned, I think Maye in two years will have better footwork. I think he has a chance to be an elite pocket passer if you give him a solid line.

It’s a win-win imo. Both have huge upside. Daniels is ahead today but I think Maye perhaps projects a little better.

So pumped we got N2OA. Thank you Jets, EB and Rivera!

One of things about JD even though he doesn't have the arm of a DM man he drops those longer passes down the chute with the receiver in stride where making it super hard for DBs to interfere. If he can balance out just dumping off to the short man instead of always running would be good. Also as someone more experience in college and improved every year my gut tells me

I think too many people are assuming Maye is a pure pocket guy when in fact he's not. He's going to run in the low/mid 4.6s at the combine which will put him faster than most of the guys he's often compared to. He's no Lamar Jackson but he's certainly not Daniel Jones either. His biggest weakness is Brett Favre syndrome where he tries to do too much. That doesn't concern me. Look at the INT leaders in the NFL last season, you've got Mahomes, Allen, Tua, Hurts all in the top 5 (with Howell). You want a guy who knows he can make all the throws. Confidence is key to success at the QB position. We can get a game manager anywhere. Give me the gun slinger any day of the week.

I've actually come around on DM quite a bit. Feels like the floor is higher in a sense due to frame and mobility, arm and youth.

 

[kicksavedave]

Didn’t one of the gazillion graphs/charts/percentages/peg-boards have something that showed Maye actually has the least TO% type plays? Or am I misreading something

OT: - 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

I like the RB outta USC. Lynch. I’d wait in RB until the 5th or 6th, candidly. It’s not exactly a hole, and we should be able to get a back up (or platoon) pretty easily in FA. That’s just me

forums.hfboards.com

Turnover worthy plays: CW was at 3.6%, DM 1.8% (11th best) JD 1.6%(5th best)

 

[Ridley Simon]

OT: - 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

I like the RB outta USC. Lynch. I’d wait in RB until the 5th or 6th, candidly. It’s not exactly a hole, and we should be able to get a back up (or platoon) pretty easily in FA. That’s just me

forums.hfboards.com

Turnover worthy plays: CW was at 3.6%, DM 1.8% (11th best) JD 1.6%(5th best)

So basically the same. DM and JD.

Ok good.

 

[Jags]

Klatt is one of the guys I was waiting to hear something from on the QBs. Just always dug his knowledgeable, straightforward approach to breaking things down. He has CW at #1. His coverage of #2 onward starts at 13:45. He does use CW to break down his perspective on the position though, so it might be worth it to watch the whole thing...

 

[RedRocking]

Klatt is one of the guys I was waiting to hear something from on the QBs. Just always dug his knowledgeable, straightforward approach to breaking things down. He has CW at #1. His coverage of #2 onward starts at 13:45. He does use CW to break down his perspective on the position though, so it might be worth it to watch the whole thing...

“DM is closer to CW, than JD is to DM.” Not familiar with this guy, but this was the consensus opinion (for a while) before the recent JD bump.

Also - since Luck, his top 4 QB prospects: Lawrence, Burrow, CW, Maye.

 

[Jags]

Also - since Luck, his top 4 QB prospects: Lawrence, Burrow, CW, Maye.

That was one of the revealing things he said that I liked, because he's clearly making the distinction of "as a prospect." Without the benefit of hindsight, in other words. Of course we know that other guys turned out to be better, but purely as prospects he's saying that CW and DM are 2 of the 4 most talented to come out in the last ten years.

He also draws a hard line between #2 and #3. CW and DM are an echelon above the others.

I like Daniels a lot, and I won't be heartbroken if it goes that way. But the potential ceiling with Maye is tough to sneeze at. There are things he needs to address, no question, but if he has the humility to do that, he's got all the tools to be on par with Allen/Herbert/Burrow.

 

[RedRocking]

This is like the third such rumor I’ve seen this week. Have no idea how credible it is, but it has been popping up.

 

[kicksavedave]