OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[Block]

I was listening to this even more today he’s been such a USC homer for him to flip it means a lot

Its just content. None of it means anything.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Its just content. None of it means anything.

Maybe. But the draft rankings do and the fact you the Bears still want Fields, Williams, or a Monster trade doesnt show you have a real pick at all. Hence not really wanting CW

Also I know its just content, they have hours to fill with no games. Just like I dont trust gambling advice on these podcasts. You know 90% are not betting and is for clicks.

 

[RedRocking]

New realization. If Maye had Nabers and B. Thomas instead of the inconsistent Dez as receivers. If they go with a QB it needs to be Maye. Told myself I would hold off but until the combine this is my take for now.

One of us! One of us!

I’m trying to stay open minded and am enjoying gathering info/opinions. I think more highly of JD than I did last week. But still prefer Maye as of right now.

Been asking myself - besides his speed, what elite traits does JD have that may translate to the NFL? How will that speed serve him in the long run? (reminder that Justin Fields ran a 4.4, and is a heck of a rusher).

For Maye - rare combo of size/athleticism, and arm strength come to mind immediately as far as elite transferable traits.

 

[g00n]

If he falls to #2 great but the Bears price tag when they might not even want him is just to much.

Yes. The friggin Bears (and Pats) are the complicating factors here and they like it that way. Why wouldn't CHI want to sustain the intrigue as much as possible and force everyone to come to them with insane offers, unless they really don't need that #1 pick?

The fact that they're allowing the speculation and "historic offer" talk to happen at all implies they genuinely do not trust Fields to be the guy. Otherwise it seems foolish to risk continued damage to their relationship with Fields, the fans, and CW.

I think that means they are NOT targeting MHJr and do have their eyes on one of the other QBs. (or are at least agnostic about which one they get)

Fields carried a dead cap hit of 18M, 15M, then 11M his first 3 years. His cap hit is now a ridiculous 6M. He's cheap af for what he does and there's no reason for the Bears to trade him or even build around him at that price if they haven't extended him already. He'll be QB2 or QB1A heading into next year, fighting the rookie for a starting job.

So they probably either plan to draft someone not named Caleb Williams or are ambivalent about which of the top 3 they get, and would like a massive haul in return for trading out of 1OA....but not too far. They still want a top QB.

They know teams behind them will want CW and they need value for that instead of just picking Daniels or Maye and tossing that trade leverage in the trash. Obviously.

But who are they talking to other than WFT?

It's possible NE at #3 are bluffing when they say they're not looking to draft a rookie QB and will acquire one in free agency. I think this story came out after there was already discussion of the Bears asking price, so they may just be trying to keep the cost of 1OA down.

What about AZ at #4? What are they going to do with Kyler Murray? His contract is ridiculous due to 81.5M in dead cap this year, so who would possibly take that on? They have 2 firsts, so in theory they could trade up and get someone else but how do they dump Murray? Moving up to #1 would require two huge trades, including unloading Murray on some team that, for whatever reason, can't afford to deal with CHI directly. AZ drafting MHJr makes much more sense.

Then there's NYG sitting at 6OA. Daniel Jones is a big question mark and, like Murray, has an insane dead cap hit (69M). The cost to keep him around declines over the next 3 years so hard to tell if NY will be looking to move on, but seems unlikely they mortgage their future to do it.

Several teams behind NYG may be looking to move up and take one of the top 3 QBs (TEN, ATL, MIN, etc), but CHI can't be certain any of the top 3 QBs will fall past the 3rd pick, especially if they don't trust the noise out of New England. So CHI may only be taking offers from those other teams to drive up the perceived cost of the pick. Someone will blink but the price may be incredibly steep if TEN, ATL, MIN, DEN, LV etc are involved in a bidding war.

Finally there is the slim chance one of the other teams that does NOT need a QB simply draft one of the top 3 QBs as an immediate trade chip, which would be incredibly rare and unusual, but maybe more likely this year than any previous draft due to the uncertainty. Again, it all depends on what NE actually plan to do. Regardless, CHI can't bank on any of those QBs falling past #3.

The key, per this long-ass post, is whether or not CHI are really looking to replace Fields, and it seems they are. So they will probably not want to trade out of the top 3, which narrows the REAL bidding war to WFT and possibly NE.

If WFT are smart they will realize this and stick to a more reasonable offer in the negotiation, understanding they may only really be bidding against NE (or whoever trades up to #3 if NE is telling the truth) and not half the league.

CHI will know whether or not NE is bluffing based on whether the Patriots make any kind of serious offer. NE may also trade back, in which case the Bears will likely ONLY be talking to WFT about moving out of #1. If WFT are smart they'll put out as many corporate espionage feelers as possible to assess what's really going on between NE and CHI, if anything.

tl;dr: WFT might be bidding against themselves and should keep their offers low.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Yates new mock draft has us taking JD 2

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yates new mock draft has us taking JD 2

ESPN guys loving JD at 2 this morning….

 

[ynotcaps]

New realization. If Maye had Nabers and B. Thomas instead of the inconsistent Dez as receivers. If they go with a QB it needs to be Maye. Told myself I would hold off but until the combine this is my take for now.

OK, but you're projecting what Maye would do with those receivers, whereas we know what Daniels did do with them. I don't think that's an automatic projection that DM throws for over 4K, 40 TDs, 4 picks. (Certainly doesn't automatically mean his picks go down -- bad decisions & throws are are bad decisions & throws.)

 

[ynotcaps]

Yates new mock draft has us taking JD 2

Have I mentioned how much I love Field Yates?

Seriously, though, there are so many mocks out there and they all change so much, I can't get excited about any one just yet. The interesting thing at this point, to me, anyway, is the trend line. Earliest mocks were solid CW at 1, Maye to us at 2, with a few exceptions. Now there are more showing CW dropping to us at 2 and more showing us taking JD over Maye at 2. There are also a growing number having us move up, which I don't like at all.

If folks don't already have this, here's a mock draft conglomeration site. (And for the mock addicts among us, please accept my apologies in advance...):

2024 NFL Mock Draft Database | The Home for NFL Mock Drafts

NFL Mock Draft Database is the largest 2024 NFL Mock Draft collection from the top analysts, experts and sites around.

www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

 

[John Price]

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

"Kliff" notes? I cant listen to a 25 min cast now

The combine needs to get here already lol

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

 

[usiel]

I'm already over the whole 'historic' haul of draft picks nonsense from the Bears.

 

[John Price]

Kliff notes from Jordan Reid on the same podcast are that basically no trade is going to happen because the gap is too small between 1 and 2 and daniels / maye are good enough. plus the draft capital to trade up, just isn't something that Reid could see Peters doing

 

[John Price]

other than johnson the OL coach, these hirings have been very solid for the coaching staff.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We might be about to pick one of the top RBs in the 2nd... I like the Michigan kid Ill have to see where hes projected

A top QB and RB in the same draft would be pretty cool. The 1st Mock that @ynotcaps had no RBs 1st round. I looked at CBS

2024 NFL Draft Position Rankings: Running backs

Texas' Jonathon Brooks headlines PFF's 2024 NFL Draft running back rankings.

www.pff.com

Looks like we could get one in the 3rd with our high pick

 

[hockeykicker]

other than johnson the OL coach, these hirings have been very solid for the coaching staff.

I tend to ignore one year of the giants and look at when he was with the bills

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[ynotcaps]

We might be about to pick one of the top RBs in the 2nd... I like the Michigan kid Ill have to see where hes projected

A top QB and RB in the same draft would be pretty cool. The 1st Mock that @ynotcaps had no RBs 1st round. I looked at CBS

2024 NFL Draft Position Rankings: Running backs

Texas' Jonathon Brooks headlines PFF's 2024 NFL Draft running back rankings.

www.pff.com

Looks like we could get one in the 3rd with our high pick

Through my dozens-upon-hundreds of mocks I've done (lol), there have been some pretty good options w/ lots of run/catch guys in the 4th and 5th -- in my fake-GM mode, I'm looking for guys who have shown chops in the pass game, since BR is our bruiser.

 

[Holtbyisms]

ESPN guys loving JD at 2 this morning….

Because it's drama. That's why the Bears "massive haul" stories are circulating too. Some "insider" asked a Bears exec in a text if they'd consider trading down and they said "Not unless it's for more than anyone has ever given up LOL". If everyone just knew Bears were going CW 1, Skins going DM 2 it wouldn't be news worthy. ESPNs need to create controversy and buzz for the draft has been a recipe for success for decades.

 

[ynotcaps]

Yes. The friggin Bears (and Pats) are the complicating factors here and they like it that way. Why wouldn't CHI want to sustain the intrigue as much as possible and force everyone to come to them with insane offers, unless they really don't need that #1 pick?

The fact that they're allowing the speculation and "historic offer" talk to happen at all implies they genuinely do not trust Fields to be the guy. Otherwise it seems foolish to risk continued damage to their relationship with Fields, the fans, and CW.

I think that means they are NOT targeting MHJr and do have their eyes on one of the other QBs. (or are at least agnostic about which one they get)

Fields carried a dead cap hit of 18M, 15M, then 11M his first 3 years. His cap hit is now a ridiculous 6M. He's cheap af for what he does and there's no reason for the Bears to trade him or even build around him at that price if they haven't extended him already. He'll be QB2 or QB1A heading into next year, fighting the rookie for a starting job.

So they probably either plan to draft someone not named Caleb Williams or are ambivalent about which of the top 3 they get, and would like a massive haul in return for trading out of 1OA....but not too far. They still want a top QB.

They know teams behind them will want CW and they need value for that instead of just picking Daniels or Maye and tossing that trade leverage in the trash. Obviously.

But who are they talking to other than WFT?

It's possible NE at #3 are bluffing when they say they're not looking to draft a rookie QB and will acquire one in free agency. I think this story came out after there was already discussion of the Bears asking price, so they may just be trying to keep the cost of 1OA down.

What about AZ at #4? What are they going to do with Kyler Murray? His contract is ridiculous due to 81.5M in dead cap this year, so who would possibly take that on? They have 2 firsts, so in theory they could trade up and get someone else but how do they dump Murray? Moving up to #1 would require two huge trades, including unloading Murray on some team that, for whatever reason, can't afford to deal with CHI directly. AZ drafting MHJr makes much more sense.

Then there's NYG sitting at 6OA. Daniel Jones is a big question mark and, like Murray, has an insane dead cap hit (69M). The cost to keep him around declines over the next 3 years so hard to tell if NY will be looking to move on, but seems unlikely they mortgage their future to do it.

Several teams behind NYG may be looking to move up and take one of the top 3 QBs (TEN, ATL, MIN, etc), but CHI can't be certain any of the top 3 QBs will fall past the 3rd pick, especially if they don't trust the noise out of New England. So CHI may only be taking offers from those other teams to drive up the perceived cost of the pick. Someone will blink but the price may be incredibly steep if TEN, ATL, MIN, DEN, LV etc are involved in a bidding war.

Finally there is the slim chance one of the other teams that does NOT need a QB simply draft one of the top 3 QBs as an immediate trade chip, which would be incredibly rare and unusual, but maybe more likely this year than any previous draft due to the uncertainty. Again, it all depends on what NE actually plan to do. Regardless, CHI can't bank on any of those QBs falling past #3.

The key, per this long-ass post, is whether or not CHI are really looking to replace Fields, and it seems they are. So they will probably not want to trade out of the top 3, which narrows the REAL bidding war to WFT and possibly NE.

If WFT are smart they will realize this and stick to a more reasonable offer in the negotiation, understanding they may only really be bidding against NE (or whoever trades up to #3 if NE is telling the truth) and not half the league.

CHI will know whether or not NE is bluffing based on whether the Patriots make any kind of serious offer. NE may also trade back, in which case the Bears will likely ONLY be talking to WFT about moving out of #1. If WFT are smart they'll put out as many corporate espionage feelers as possible to assess what's really going on between NE and CHI, if anything.

tl;dr: WFT might be bidding against themselves and should keep their offers low.

Great analysis and research!

I go back to what Poles said in the very beginning, that it would take a mind-blowing offer to make them move down. And. really, there's no reason for them to unless they actually get that offer. This pick is found money for them as it was a gift from CAR's silliness (in making the trade) and lousiness on the field. If WAS, NE or ARZ want to be stupid, sure, take the ransom and get a great player this year and another high pick next year.

But for WAS, NE or ARZ to make that kind of insane trade would be dumb. We and NE have weak rosters with too many holes to be giving away high picks, and while ARZ has a better roster, their QB/cap situation makes such a move dumb because it costs them controlled talent PLUS the cap hit to replace Murray. And replacing Murray is the only reason to move up from 4 when it's probably 90% likely that they get their presumed guy in MHJ if they stay put at 4.

None of the other QB-needy teams have the ammo to blow CHI's sox off. Sure, they could give CHI 1sts this year and the next 2, but they're all teams that, with a Williams/Daniels/Maye, could be expected to be contenders for the foreseeable future, thereby lowering the value of those future picks.

 

[g00n]

Because it's drama. That's why the Bears "massive haul" stories are circulating too. Some "insider" asked a Bears exec in a text if they'd consider trading down and they said "Not unless it's for more than anyone has ever given up LOL". If everyone just knew Bears were going CW 1, Skins going DM 2 it wouldn't be news worthy. ESPNs need to create controversy and buzz for the draft has been a recipe for success for decades.

You're not wrong, but it seems like these stories DO sometimes take on a life of their own and manifest in reality.

Whether the hype reflects the actual backroom conversations or creates them is a Schrodinger's Draft Pick question.

 

[kicksavedave]

One of us! One of us!

I’m trying to stay open minded and am enjoying gathering info/opinions. I think more highly of JD than I did last week. But still prefer Maye as of right now.

Been asking myself - besides his speed, what elite traits does JD have that may translate to the NFL? How will that speed serve him in the long run? (reminder that Justin Fields ran a 4.4, and is a heck of a rusher).

For Maye - rare combo of size/athleticism, and arm strength come to mind immediately as far as elite transferable traits.

JD has NFL level ability to read defenses, make good decisions and manipulate DBs to open windows. The scouting report highlights this. JD dedicated himself to film study last year and it showed - He was the only one of the top 3 QBs who actually improved from 2022 to 2023. JD's arm isn't all world strong, but he's certainly strong armed enough to make all the throws he needs to. And I'd say his overall accuracy is superior to Maye's by a significant amount. Lastly its apparent when you watch a lot of his whole games that, when he's under pressure, JD handles it well and makes good reads and decisions, whereas Maye really starts to break down and make mistakes, force the ball, and throw errantly. Just my $.02 comparing the two players.

 

[John Price]

noted VT player.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Because it's drama. That's why the Bears "massive haul" stories are circulating too. Some "insider" asked a Bears exec in a text if they'd consider trading down and they said "Not unless it's for more than anyone has ever given up LOL". If everyone just knew Bears were going CW 1, Skins going DM 2 it wouldn't be news worthy. ESPNs need to create controversy and buzz for the draft has been a recipe for success for decades.

You might, just might want to consider that JD is going to come out of this entire process as the #2. Will you still blame the media then?

I’d have to trust Peters and Co. if they made that ranking decision.