OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

usiel

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Seriously, why does it always look like Williams takes forever to throw the rock?



His pocket awareness is second to none. Consistency and accuracy impress me. Watching him run around and evade defenders for 7 seconds and then finding an open receiver does not. He will get destroyed doing that at the NFL level. Maybe it's just this video, too many hero throws but I need to see more of him making anticipation throws and in rhythm throwing to his first read or second or third read. Even a simple screen pass as bread and butter throws to confuse the defense. I need to see more.

On of seemingly hundreds of analysis videos of the top 3 QBs I do recall that the average time to get rid of the ball that Williams was worse and way too long compared to the NFL norm.

His body control in the air on those jump throws is pretty elite. Also rolling right he can throw darts even when he's almost throwing across is body.
 
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alphabetical

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Sam Howell is trending on Twitter right now. I am like what the f*** is going here? This is what started it.



I am ALL IN. Get me a second for Howell and I will do Jumping Jacks nude at the 50 yard line on opening day.

If that's a condition of the trade, I'm saying no.
 

Bananas

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I can't find my way to individual game scores for the previous season, but here are overall grades per year for the top3 throughout their college careers:

View attachment 816206

View attachment 816207

View attachment 816209
The reason I asked is because apex seasons for both Caleb and Maye was 22. Obviously there should be recency bias on their grades but Daniels is in year-5 of his college career by this point and Maye is in year 2. I’d venture to guess that Maye and Williams were both waaay higher on PFFs list post-22. In some ways it feels like a bit of a cherry pick to not take into account performance over last two seasons for all three players.

Daniels was a Day-2 pick or lower coming into the season and won the Heisman. Maye and Williams have been in this stratosphere for longer. It’s a tough choice for sure, I’m more of a Maye guy but I absolutely see the appeal of Daniels.

In a perfect world we’ll rate them the same and we can try and get something out of the Patriots if they have a strong preference. Then we do same for Cardinals re MHJ. Then we’ll draft our QB at four and load up the war chest.

If Peters pulls off at least one trade down and we still get a QB he really wants, he’ll be a god to these eyes lol.
 
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RedRocking

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Cause he does, and it got worse his second year at SC which is weird, cause you'd think he'd have learned after his injury in his first year, which was entirely because of his tendency to hang on to the ball. He is an amazing player, but he needs to stop playing hero ball and he'll have way more success.
To be a little fair, USC’s D was atrocious, so he went into every game thinking he needed to score 35+. PAC-12 football - it’s a ridiculous sh*t show! And accordingly now defunct, I guess.

Anyways, this is where pro days and interviews are really important. Is this just how he likes to play/sees the field? Or was hero ball the best chance for his team to win most weeks.

With all that running around, throwing across his body, it’s kind of amazing he only threw 10 picks combined the past 2 years (5/5). And 3 this year happened in one bad game against ND.
 
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HTFN

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I can't find my way to individual game scores for the previous season, but here are overall grades per year for the top3 throughout their college careers:

View attachment 816206

View attachment 816207

View attachment 816209
I was under the impression that "2022" meant the 2022 draft class, so as to better understand how Stroud balled out while others didn't hit their marks, but I could be wrong there.

For me, then, can you do that draft class with Stroud compared to Young and the others?
 
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Block

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And 3 this year happened in one bad game against ND.
Yeah, but that game, and the others they lost except maybe Oregon were in part because he refused to play within the offense and keep the D off the field. ND specifically he created his own pressure for them, he had a clean pocket to step up into all day and kept rolling out into pressure and throwing deep into double coverage when the slants built in as release valves were wide open.
 

Chokingdogs

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No dog in any fight however…

Someone please show me a 3 game stretch where Brady, Montana, Mahomes, etc. crapped the bed while at college.

Not saying anyone drafted this year is the above named, but…
 
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RedRocking

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OK, you're not on the Daniels train and that's perfectly legit -- but blaming him for getting knocked out and for not stopping LSU's opponents' offenses is... not a strong argument.

A smaller snapshot from PFF (which knows better than I and probably any of us here):
Maye:

View attachment 816158

Things of note:
1) Didn't face FSU
2) Had 1 game w/ 90+ grade
3) Trash scores against the "good" ACC teams he did face: UM, Clemson, NCS

Daniels:
View attachment 816160
Notes:
1) His lowest score was against best ACC team and best ACC D in FSU -- and was still higher than Maye's scores against the next best ACC teams
2) SIX 90+ point scores, including against Bama (CFP Semi-finalist), and Mizzou (ranked 8 in final poll)
3) His 2 lowest scores were in the 70's

Everybody can have their preferences, but the data is the data, and it says JD performed much better against better competition.


Yea, well, random analytics bro on a Pats podcast says the Pats should only take a QB if they can get CW/Maye. Otherwise, he says to avoid Daniels and trade down.

He says JD’s pressure/sack ratio is too high (sacked on 20% of pressures; 30% year before), and that this fancy stat follows guys to the NFL (actually mentions Howell as an example). Imagine this skinny kid taking the beating that Sam did last year.

So - check and mate, sir ;)
 
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TheSmokingMan

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I haven't really been following the team since Dan Snyder took over (with the exception of Gibbs returning for 4 seasons and RG3's rookie season), so I ask that you forgive my ignorance in advance.

It seems like there is a lot of contentious debate over what player to pick. Is my understanding correct that this years class of QB's is supposed to be very strong? There doesn't seem to be a consensus draft order and several QB's are considered to be possible franchise players that I think any team would love to have. That seems like an enviable position to be in.

The way it's being discussed here, it seems like people feel that there's a high likelihood of boom or bust, depending on the selection. Do you guys feel that some of these QB's will legitimately be outright busts or do you think that kind of talk is just people trying to hype their favorites?

With whomever they finally end up with, I hope that they'll finally have the franchise QB they've been lacking (for decades). Maybe I'll even start paying attention again.
 

g00n

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Maye: The complaints about his footwork are a little confusing. Is it during delivery? No dropback after shotgun snap? I don't see it as that big of a deal unless he simply can't execute a basic crossover step, and as the son of a QB I doubt that's the case.

Another "negative" I've seen is the way he pats the ball before a throw. I don't know how much of a real issue this is for an NFL QB, as I've only ever seen amateur youtubers pointing it out. He doesn't do it all the time. It seems like an unconscious habit on some throws, probably from a feeling that the ball needs to be more firmly in the hand, or a trigger that a certain type of decision has been made. Also:

1707398249129.png


With both of these things--"footwork" and ball tapping--if some NFL QB coach decides to change these aspects of his game, it will probably be a few years before he shows NFL level consistency, because he will be thinking too much about long-ingrained habits instead of just playing and reacting to the situation. Too much thought about what your hands and feet are doing during a play is poison to flow.

The main issue with Maye in my eyes is whether or not the QOC has been comparable. I think he'll make it somehow in the NFL, but I'm not sure whether he's the next Joe Montana or Ryan Leaf.


Daniels: My first viewing of his play I think I said he was good running and on deep balls but that's all that was shown in his highlight reel. He's an ELITE scrambler...one of the best I've seen. That's his prime selling point.

But I've also seen video where his short and mid-range passing was picked apart for its accuracy and timing. That's a concern in an NFL offense (if a true deficiency and not the product of some armchair QB cherrypicking flaws). But how hard is it to fix? I think that's 100% mental for any QB and simply a matter of recognition and nerve.

WFT version of Cousins was hesitant to throw the ball and checked down quickly because he was afraid of throwing picks. Daniels had 40 TDS to 4 INTS so maybe he's really REALLY trying to avoid the interceptions, and that's causing the half-beat delay in short-mid range delivery. Whether or not he becomes as elite with those timing routes depends on his willingness to let that go a bit and trust the process, imo. If he does that, he'll be a top QB in the league... IF he can avoid being snapped in half.

He also pats the ball, so there's that.


Williams: This guy is an enigma. Aladdin's Lamp or Hellraiser cube. He's super high risk/reward in a lot of ways, but the allure of pure talent will be difficult for any team to resist.

Like the others he works out of the gun so you can't 100% apply it to an NFL offense that starts under center, except maybe the fact that he often does seem to have a "classic" crossover dropback step even in shotgun. Daniels does this a little bit, Maye not much, if at all.

When CW does take the snap he seems to go by the book for a few steps, and then he flips it to improv mode. His delivery angles and movements will vary based on the play, BUT he doesn't just bail out and run at the first sign of pressure.

Since all three of these QBs have some escapability and slightly different running talents, you have to look at what else sets them apart. With CW, for me, it's twofold...

First is the way he seems to WANT to climb the pocket and stay in it with his eyes downfield when possible. This is a coveted pro trait that I don't see with DM or JD, and it's probably one reason he has stats that show him holding onto the ball so long. DM and JD will make a few reads and then either huck it up or scramble when the first guy breaks through the line, but CW seems to want to stick with the play a bit more. I don't know if this is something you can teach a QB because it's such a primal "fight or flight" type instinct at its root.

Second is his freakish arm strength. CW would probably have one of the strongest arms in the NFL on day one. He can roll out and flick the ball across his body on a rope. This is also something you can't teach. It's a HUGE advantage if you're playing an NFL style offense with tight windows and precise timing, which again his basic demonstration of footwork will also acomodate.

Then there's the diva/headcase question...



Verdict: Unless something happens at the combine, it has to be Williams first. This is a reversal of my previous stance, which was based on possible diva status more than anything. You have to roll the dice and ignore that. Rub the lamp. The pocket presence and arm talent are HUGE advantages that, unless he's a total rockhead, will put him in position to possibly start in the in NFL week 1.

It's a toss-up between the other two for 2nd and 3rd pick. Maye's QOC is potentially problematic, and JD's frame and penchant to just pull it down and run complicate the equation.
 
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ynotcaps

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Yea, well, random analytics bro on a Pats podcast says the Pats should only take a QB if they can get CW/Maye. Otherwise, he says to avoid Daniels and trade down.

He says JD’s pressure/sack ratio is too high (sacked on 20% of pressures; 30% year before), and that this fancy stat follows guys to the NFL (actually mentions Howell as an example). Imagine this skinny kid taking the beating that Sam did last year.

So - check and mate, sir ;)

Well, since random analytics bro said it in a podcast on the interwebs, it must be true! :laugh:

For me, it's CW #1 (he's an effing unicorn, and we may all be tearing pieces from him because that's what fans have to do when someone's been anointed for as long as he has), JD #2 (he's improved every year and his performance is '23 was dominant against top competition), DM #3 (tools all there, performance against toughest competition appreciably worse than against weak teams).

Good thing for all of us we have Adam Peters on the case who's got more demonstrated success in evaluating talent than I do!
 

Roric

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Those gave me rg3 vietnam flashbacks. He better learn to slide or he wont last long. Even richardson who's much bigger can't take those level of hits at the nfl level without getting hurt
 
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ynotcaps

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Those gave me rg3 vietnam flashbacks. He better learn to slide or he wont last long. Even richardson who's much bigger can't take those level of hits at the nfl level without getting hurt
He absolutely needs to have some of that coached out of him. "When you have open field, run like the wind; when you see a defender in front of you, dive like a waterbird."
 

Bananas

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I have being diving deeper than ever on this one. I’m not gonna lie, I come here every hour or two to see what anyone has posted lol.

On that note, three points I uncovered last night during deep dive:

- Maye’s system in college has Air Raid principles … I think. I couldn’t find a second source, but someone mentioned that KK was interesting for Maye since he “played the same offense at college”.

- UNC switched offensive coordinators from 22 to 23. Apparently the outgoing guy was much more highly touted than the incoming one. Not only that, his new coordinator favored the running game. I think both those elements certainly impacted Maye’s 23 numbers.

- Tez Walker, Mayes top target this year, looked bad at the Senior Bowl week and his draft stock looks to be falling.

To me there are various factors that could indicate the dip in production from Maye in 23 was not entirely his fault.

Just saying…
 
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Chokingdogs

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Those gave me rg3 vietnam flashbacks. He better learn to slide or he wont last long. Even richardson who's much bigger can't take those level of hits at the nfl level without getting hurt

Yep, those two videos were all I needed.

Huge pass on that fella.
 
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EroCaps

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Is this… is this an optimistic post by Ero? A new dawn in Washington, indeed.
It’s a low bar for all parties.

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I’m very wary of drafting 5 year starters in college.

Also didn’t Daniels have teammates who f***ing hated him at Arizona?

If not Williams then Maye or McCarthy.
 
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CapitalsCupReality

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Darius Butler….ex NFLer, regular in studio on the Pat McAfee show…..just played in a LIV pro am with Drake Maye (with Maye’s dad and uncle with them). Came away incredibly impressed by him as a leader. Said he would be his #1 pick today, but also said playing 5 hours of golf with CW or JD could sway him, but he loved Maye. Said he and the family were busting each others balls all day….highly competitive family vibe. Said he was lanky, but you can see him filling out and being Herbert-like.
 

kicksavedave

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It’s a low bar for all parties.

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I’m very wary of drafting 5 year starters in college.

Also didn’t Daniels have teammates who f***ing hated him at Arizona?

If not Williams then Maye or McCarthy.

Some history there. Check out this video on Daniels and some comments from teammates after he announced he was transferring.

 
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