OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[ynotcaps]

Playing against the best competition and that 40/4 season is absurd. I’m pulling for Maye to come out on top in the process but JD is electric….and his passing is near flawless. Very torn….

No need to be torn, it's OK to go all in on Jayden.

 

[Roric]

Sam Howell is trending on Twitter right now. I am like what the f*** is going here? This is what started it.



I am ALL IN. Get me a second for Howell and I will do Jumping Jacks nude at the 50 yard line on opening day.

 

[kicksavedave]

Yes. You like Daniels better. I can understand that. I don’t know if I like Maye better, BUT I can see the allure.

Plus they are the same height. However one is already 20lbs + heavier than the other (and still has 2yrs to grow), which cannot be undermined when looking at the injury rate of QB’s in the NFL. Shit, we know this better than many franchises, right?

Im open to either. IN Adam I Trust. Kool-Aid!!!

I'll say this, if I am drafting, I like Daniels 2% more than Maye, and both of them 50% more than CW, the arm not withstanding. I think CW is by far the more likely to bust among the three. I'm glad we're drafting 2, because if we were at 3, I'd hate it if CW fell to us and we felt compelled to take him. I may eat these words, but I think CW has epic bust written all over him and some dumbass team will trade a fortune to draft him and regret it for a generation. Dudes will get fired over it. I think DM and JD will be very good pro QBs but they MUST be in the right system for them.

 

[ynotcaps]

I get it, we are projecting the younger, less experienced guy, to grow into the same production as the older guy. But its not a guarantee. Whereas Daniels HAS already grown into that mature QB level.

Its not just projections though, which are hard no matter who we're looking at. Maye's flaws are ones that tend to be deal breakers in the NFL. When he gets pressured, like Howell did all year, his accuracy disappears and he throughs bad balls, bad decisions. When Daniels gets pressured, he stays calm, and makes good decisions - pass, run or throw it away. This may or may not be just experience, but it may speak more to their overall inherent ability and personality. Hard to predict, which is why NFL minds get it wrong so often.



Daniels OL was not very good though, and he played against MUCH better competition all year, compared to Maye.

Yeah, to me this another big draw. His line wasn't just not very good, it was objectively bad. So he's got experience playing top-flight defenses with a below-par OL. No matter how many assets we pour into the OL this offseason, I don't see it getting anywhere above "adequate." (Unless, of course, they take Alt or Fash, in which point the QB debate is moot, but that seems highly improbable.)

As for his weapons, yes, he had 2 absolute studs -- and every bit as much as they made him better, he made them better*.

*Ref. Burrow, Joe; Jefferson, Justin; Chase, Jamar

Sam Howell is trending on Twitter right now. I am like what the f*** is going here? This is what started it.



I am ALL IN. Get me a second for Howell and I will do Jumping Jacks nude at the 50 yard line on opening day.

I only consider this trade if @Roric does NOT do nude jumping jacks at the 50-yard line on opening day! (Jeeziss, isn't FedEx Field enough of a hellscape as it is?! )

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

An LSU QB had a bad O line is some shit. LSU gets all the best players. I’m not sure any other player on the Tar Heels would make LSU this season.

 

[bacchist]

Do you really not see one of these 3 outperforming sam in camp?

Howell is a professional. He sat for a year and then started for a year. I'd expect him to put some college kid in his place pretty quick.

 

[usiel]

I went a completely different direction with this mock. Took an offer to trade back to 3OA from New England and decided to build for the future without focusing on QB. Picked up two first round picks for next year that can be used as ammo to trade up if they need a QB. Drafted three potential day 1 starters on the OL. I did pick up Joe Milton who stands 6’5” and has arguably the strongest arm in this draft class as a developmental QB.

View attachment 815893

Two things I'm fine with. Drafting a QB in the first round or drafting technically the best player in the draft in MHJ.

 

[kicksavedave]

An LSU QB had a bad O line is some shit. LSU gets all the best players. I’m not sure any other player on the Tar Heels would make LSU this season.

The question isn't LSU's line vs NC's line, its LSU's line vs the DL's it faced. LSU's line this year was very bad by its standards and by comparing itself to its competition, the SEC defenses. JD was under pressure all year long. He handled it like a dream. DM was under pressure a lot also. He didn't handle it well at all.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Ok I maybe have made my choice

 

[Ridley Simon]

Ok I maybe have made my choice

Oh dear That’s 4min of my life I just wasted. lol

 

[Bananas]

If Daniels is the pick, I’m totally fine with it. Even more so if we can trade down to 3. However, to me there is far more risk in Daniels due to his propensity to take big hits and his sub-NFL frame. IMO he will be electrifying when healthy, I just see injuries galore incoming possibly even to the RG3 career destroying level. Impossible to predict, of course. It was my first thought the first time I watched his reel. He’s Toast Forbes, RG3 level slender. He will be decimated if he consistently takes huge hits from NFL defenders. Period. The only question is can the coaches get through to him and can he learn to genuinely protect himself.

I’d personally rather not find out.

 

[kicksavedave]

If Daniels is the pick, I’m totally fine with it. Even more so if we can trade down to 3. However, to me there is far more risk in Daniels due to his propensity to take big hits and his sub-NFL frame. IMO he will be electrifying when healthy, I just see injuries galore incoming possibly even to the RG3 career destroying level. Impossible to predict, of course. It was my first thought the first time I watched his reel. He’s Toast Forbes, RG3 level slender. He will be decimated if he consistently takes huge hits from NFL defenders. Period. The only question is can the coaches get through to him and can he learn to genuinely protect himself.

I’d personally rather not find out.

I know we're all spooked by RGIII, but he tore his ACL in college and missed most of a season. As near as I can tell, Daniels has never missed a start due to injury and only once had to leave a game, when he got kabong'd vs Alabama on a roughing the passer penalty and had to exit for the concussion protocol. He started the next week though and destroyed Florida. He may be thin, but he's not "fragile". He can also gain weight, and yes, he will need to learn to slide in the NFL. RGIII just refused to slide and it cost him his career. Daniels will need to be smarter than that.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I know we're all spooked by RGIII, but he tore his ACL in college and missed most of a season. As near as I can tell, Daniels has never missed a start due to injury and only once had to leave a game, when he got kabong'd vs Alabama on a roughing the passer penalty and had to exit for the concussion protocol. He started the next week though and destroyed Florida. He may be thin, but he's not "fragile". He can also gain weight, and yes, he will need to learn to slide in the NFL. RGIII just refused to slide and it cost him his career. Daniels will need to be smarter than that.

See this is what worries me. His game vs a team of 5 stars on Bama and he gets knocked out...

 

[Jags]

I'm not a college football guy, so I have zero knowledge other than what I'm learning on YouTube and here (which is a frightening thought in itself). There are passionate "Maye is the guy" posters here and passionate "Definitely Daniels" posters as well. Here's what I'm hearing from you guys, and please correct me if I'm wrong.

Daniels is going on 2 years older, but they've both played roughly the same amount of Grade A college football. Daniels saw tougher competition and his team wasn't loaded with talent, so he played more A-list teams and was under a lot of pressure, yet put up great numbers. He does not attack the center of the field the way Maye does, however, which is a key trait given the position of the hashes in college. A college QB that focuses mostly on "the outside" is only playing on a third of the field and may not be developing "see the whole field" tendencies.

Daniels is the same impressive height as Maye, but is apparently 210 pounds and has legs that look like Forbes', which is comical and alarming. NFL linebackers eat poultry with bigger leg bones than that. There's a real concern that Daniels would absorb a full-on NFL tackle the way a wicker chair would handle a collision with an F150.

Maye is a much bigger boy with a rifle arm that can hit all three levels over the middle. But he saw dogshit competition in college, didn't win the tough matchups, and does not perform well under pressure. Virtually all of his big plays on all the highlight reels are thrown to one receiver, which begs some questions about which guy is the talent cuz he's throwing a lot of those balls to a wide open guy.

I'm sincerely asking both camps -- how much of this summary am I getting wrong?

Nice that Maye is younger, but given his apparent weakness versus pressure, can we expect ANY maturation at the NFL level, or are we throwing a rookie who played versus marginal college talent in against the best Ds in the world?

I don't care that Daniels is 24 this year, but his legs are twigs. He's shockingly narrow for his frame, and adding weight now, with so much of his development done, might just slow him down versus faster and harder-hitting pressure.

Serious upsides and downsides to both guys. Those of you that are confident about your pick, how are you making that choice?

 

[Roric]

Seriously, why does it always look like Williams takes forever to throw the rock?



His pocket awareness is second to none. Consistency and accuracy impress me. Watching him run around and evade defenders for 7 seconds and then finding an open receiver does not. He will get destroyed doing that at the NFL level. Maybe it's just this video, too many hero throws but I need to see more of him making anticipation throws and in rhythm throwing to his first read or second or third read. Even a simple screen pass as bread and butter throws to confuse the defense. I need to see more.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Comparing their competition at the college level is kind of laughable. ACC has Clemson and FSU. Which are very good teams that have won championships and had first overall draft picks very recently.
SEC is by far the best conference. but those teams play cupcakes and pad their stats when they’re playing baloney University in non conference.

It’s not like Maye is playing in D2

JD had 5 stars at every position had a poor record W/L

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Leading insider pours cold water on Commanders quest for Caleb Williams — Riggo's Rag

When Adam Schefter talks, people listen... Feb 07, 2024 A leading insider poured cold water on growing speculation linking the Washington Commanders with a daring raid for quarterback Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams is the hottest quarterback to emerge from the college ranks in some time. He's...

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[ynotcaps]

See this is what worries me. His game vs a team of 5 stars on Bama and he gets knocked out...

OK, by that logic, any QB who ever got knocked out of a game by a good D is worrisome? Not sure how the QB is the problem when the OL lets the QB take a helmet to the chin.

And as was stated, he came back the next game and flamed FLA.

I'm fine with worries about his running, but if you worry about a guy because he got knocked out by a late hit to the chin after the ball was released, then I don't think think there's a QB in the league or college who you shouldn't worry about.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

What Im worried about JD is taking hits from NFL DL and LB who hit alot harder then college players. 1 cheap shot in college is not the main reason for this injury fear.

 

[ynotcaps]

Comparing their competition at the college level is kind of laughable. ACC has Clemson and FSU. Which are very good teams that have won championships and had first overall draft picks very recently.
SEC is by far the best conference. but those teams play cupcakes and pad their stats when they’re playing baloney University in non conference.

It’s not like Maye is playing in D2

JD had 5 stars at every position had a poor record W/L

OK, you're not on the Daniels train and that's perfectly legit -- but blaming him for getting knocked out and for not stopping LSU's opponents' offenses is... not a strong argument.

A smaller snapshot from PFF (which knows better than I and probably any of us here):
Maye:

Things of note:
1) Didn't face FSU
2) Had 1 game w/ 90+ grade
3) Trash scores against the "good" ACC teams he did face: UM, Clemson, NCS

Daniels:

Notes:
1) His lowest score was against best ACC team and best ACC D in FSU -- and was still higher than Maye's scores against the next best ACC teams
2) SIX 90+ point scores, including against Bama (CFP Semi-finalist), and Mizzou (ranked 8 in final poll)
3) His 2 lowest scores were in the 70's

Everybody can have their preferences, but the data is the data, and it says JD performed much better against better competition.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

OK, you're not on the Daniels train and that's perfectly legit -- but blaming him for getting knocked out and for not stopping LSU's opponents' offenses is... not a strong argument.

A smaller snapshot from PFF (which knows better than I and probably any of us here):
Maye:

View attachment 816158

Things of note:
1) Didn't face FSU
2) Had 1 game w/ 90+ grade
3) Trash scores against the "good" ACC teams he did face: UM, Clemson, NCS

Daniels:
View attachment 816160
Notes:
1) His lowest score was against best ACC team and best ACC D in FSU -- and was still higher than Maye's scores against the next best ACC teams
2) SIX 90+ point scores, including against Bama (CFP Semi-finalist), and Mizzou (ranked 8 in final poll)
3) His 2 lowest scores were in the 70's

Everybody can have their preferences, but the data is the data, and it says JD performed much better against better competition.

Well, those are some good stats. Thank you for sharing them.

I’m very excited for our teams future to have the opportunity draft one of the highest rated quarterbacks in the last decade

 

[ynotcaps]

Well, those are some good stats. Thank you for sharing them.

I’m very excited for our teams future to have the opportunity draft one of the highest rated quarterbacks in the last decade

I think the fact that we're all nervously picking apart everything about these guys is actually kind of a positive -- it means we all actually have some level of hope that the team is not just on the upswing, but that we also really might be able to solve the QB problem that's plagued us for 20+ years. (That's why I can't think about trading out -- who knows when/if we'll have the confluence of draft position plus premier talent again.)

And thank god we've got an actual real personnel talent in position to decide the pick!

 

[Bananas]

OK, you're not on the Daniels train and that's perfectly legit -- but blaming him for getting knocked out and for not stopping LSU's opponents' offenses is... not a strong argument.

A smaller snapshot from PFF (which knows better than I and probably any of us here):
Maye:

View attachment 816158

Things of note:
1) Didn't face FSU
2) Had 1 game w/ 90+ grade
3) Trash scores against the "good" ACC teams he did face: UM, Clemson, NCS

Daniels:
View attachment 816160
Notes:
1) His lowest score was against best ACC team and best ACC D in FSU -- and was still higher than Maye's scores against the next best ACC teams
2) SIX 90+ point scores, including against Bama (CFP Semi-finalist), and Mizzou (ranked 8 in final poll)
3) His 2 lowest scores were in the 70's

Everybody can have their preferences, but the data is the data, and it says JD performed much better against better competition.

Can you take a look at 2022 for us?

 

[ynotcaps]

Can you take a look at 2022 for us?

I can't find my way to individual game scores for the previous season, but here are overall grades per year for the top3 throughout their college careers:

 

[Block]

Seriously, why does it always look like Williams takes forever to throw the rock?

Cause he does, and it got worse his second year at SC which is weird, cause you'd think he'd have learned after his injury in his first year, which was entirely because of his tendency to hang on to the ball. He is an amazing player, but he needs to stop playing hero ball and he'll have way more success.