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Player Discussion: 2024 Vezina Winner Connor Hellebuyck

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cbcwpg said:
In the playoffs... Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This is 5 on 5

Helly's HDSV% is 0.667 which is the worst of all playoff goalies

For comparison:

Oettinger ( who a lot of pundits think is just a beast these playoffs ) HDSV% is 0.760 ( 4th worst )
Click to expand...

I meant more in the season than the playoffs but that is below his usual. Also does he face more high danger chances than other goalies. Based on the link above he's 6th in high danger shots faced but even this season was well below his usual hdsv%.
 
cbcwpg said:
In the playoffs... Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This is 5 on 5

Helly's HDSV% is 0.667 which is the worst of all playoff goalies

For comparison:

Oettinger ( who a lot of pundits think is just a beast these playoffs ) HDSV% is 0.760 ( 4th worst )
Click to expand...

200w.gif
 
tbcwpg said:
I meant more in the season than the playoffs but that is below his usual. Also does he face more high danger chances than other goalies. Based on the link above he's 6th in high danger shots faced but even this season was well below his usual hdsv%.
Click to expand...
regular season, using NST totals:
6th most at High-Danger Shots 5v5 (4th most in xGA)
5th most at all-strengths (3rd most in xGA)

rates is probably a bit better to look at depending on what you're trying to find, since high starts you'd accumulate more.

per-60 depending on your goalie-gp bench-mark if you go 40+ gp, out of 26 goalies

5v5
12th least in High-Danger shots/60, (16th least xGA/60)
all strengths:
10th least in High-Danger shots/60 (14th least xGA/60)
 
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tbcwpg said:
I meant more in the season than the playoffs but that is below his usual. Also does he face more high danger chances than other goalies. Based on the link above he's 6th in high danger shots faced but even this season was well below his usual hdsv%.
Click to expand...
I think you would have to figure out % of hd shots per game since helle's work load is more then others
at 5v5:
helle faced 414 hd shots in 64 games for an average of 6.4 hd shots per game
ullmark has faced 302 in 49 games for an average of 6.1 hd shots per game
so at 5v5 it seems like he ends up facing 1 extra hd shot then ullmark every 3 games (if I did that correctly)
 
White Out 403 said:
no no, the correct answer is, and feel free to fact check me cuz I'm using rough numbers, 904.
Click to expand...
As a forum member pointed out, you tend to cherry-pick stats to justify your argument. you completely ignore the fact that Hellebuyck posts superior stats in the post season, and point out one single series. Under those goalposts, I can make an argument that we should have kept Pavelec, since Hellebuyck had a mediocre 2016-17 season (the only time he finished with below average stats in his 8 year career).
 
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DRW204 said:
regular season, using NST totals:
6th most at High-Danger Shots 5v5 (4th most in xGA)
5th most at all-strengths (3rd most in xGA)

rates is probably a bit better to look at depending on what you're trying to find, since high starts you'd accumulate more.

per-60 depending on your goalie-gp bench-mark if you go 40+ gp, out of 26 goalies

5v5
12th least in High-Danger shots/60, (16th least xGA/60)
all strengths:
10th least in High-Danger shots/60 (14th least xGA/60)
Click to expand...

So it seems like he had a bit of a down year, which matches what I saw and another poster pointed out - strong start, mid middle, strong finish.
 
Jets4Life said:
As a forum member pointed out, you tend to cherry-pick stats to justify your argument. you completely ignore the fact that Hellebuyck posts superior stats in the post season, and point out one single series. Under those goalposts, I can make an argument that we should have kept Pavelec, since Hellebuyck had a mediocre 2016-17 season (the only time he finished with below average stats in his 8 year career).
Click to expand...
Last 10 starts is a perfectly reasonable stat and data set to use. It's recent and represents hockey from 2 different post seasons. You're saying it's cherry picked because you don't like the data it produces.
 
White Out 403 said:
Last 10 starts is a perfectly reasonable stat and data set to use. It's recent and represents hockey from 2 different post seasons. You're saying it's cherry picked because you don't like the data it produces.
Click to expand...
How about we produce the last 10 starts of the 2022-23 regular season, which carries for more weight than what happened years ago;

7-3-0, 0.940%

It's completely cheery-picking when one considers Hellebuyck finished the 2021 playoffs with a 2.23 GAA, and a 0.931% in 8 games. You simply exclude the first two games where Helle stood on his head, and let in one goal in the first two games to fit your agenda.
 
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White Out 403 said:
So you want to ignore his last 4 starts? Now whos cherry picking.
Click to expand...


Hellebuyck's career playoff stats:

2.54 GAA, 0.918 saving percentage.

You seem to imply that the Jets need a better goalie (just as you did during the 2019-20 Vezina Trophy season). Should we start Arvid Holm or Dom DiVincentiis, considering Rittich is injured.
 
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Jets4Life said:
Hellebuyck's career playoff stats:

2.54 GAA, 0.918 saving percentage.

You seem to imply that the Jets need a better goalie (just as you did during the 2019-20 Vezina Trophy season). Should we start Arvid Holm? Dom DiVincentiis?
Click to expand...

I'm not implying. I'm very directly saying I would settle for a quality start. 2 goals or less or 915. I don't get why that has to be a fight or controversy.
 
Guffman said:
I was retorting someone’s take that he’s a great regular season goalie but not so much in the playoffs, but the basic stats actually say otherwise.

I wasn’t commenting on his cap hit and if it is worth it based on his performance. Did you want to discuss that instead?
Click to expand...

Helle has been a mix of good and bad in the PO. He has always been weak in our last series, thus it is our last series.
 
Guffman said:
So is that what you want to do? Cherry pick?

Don't waste my time.
Click to expand...

It wouldn't be a waste of time. It makes a different point. You are countering the statement that Helle has always been bad in the PO, and rightly so. But what about more recently? It is permissible to criticize a players recent performance.
 
Ppl expect to much from Hellebuyck

One day and I hope it's not soon but one day when helle is gone, ppl will wish for him.

Dude stands on his head nightly and stats may not show that but all of us watching sure know that without him, we are a lottery team
 
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Guffman said:
Sorry, 2 cups are outside of your 10 game cherry picking window.

Look who is trying to move the goal posts?

HONK! HONK!

:joker::joker::joker::joker::joker::joker:
Click to expand...

Why'd you pick Vasilevskiy? Because he's a goaltender with pedigree. Posting abject nonsense then laughing at yourself and honking doesn't give you an edge. It just highlights that you're an unserious person with an axe to grind. I want Helley to succeed and do well, because then the Jets do well. He's been a complete rollercoaster stats wise in the postseason his entire career, and his last 10 games in the playoffs have been a dumpster fire. I would have personally given the man a handjob for him to steal us a game or at least give us a quality start Monday so my kid could have enjoyed a win. You look like a fool.
 
Guffman said:
Like Hellebuyck said after the last game, and he's right if you watch the goals that were scored on him, a couple of those goals were "lucky" in the sense that they got deflected off of skates, etc. That's why you really can't drawing all of these statistical analysis after four games. Goaltenders getting the bad bounces will have bad stats, goalies getting those lucky bounces will have great stats.
Click to expand...

Goalie stats don't mean much, if anything, in a small sample. So I'll just go by the eye-test. He has been weak this series.

Every goalie gets flukey goals scored against him and makes some flukey saves too. It all comes out in the wash - if you have a large sample. His career stats don't mean squat in this series either. He is not playing up to his own standard.
 
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tbcwpg said:
So it seems like he had a bit of a down year, which matches what I saw and another poster pointed out - strong start, mid middle, strong finish.
Click to expand...
Funny that you mention this (it might have been one my posts you saw ;))

i was looking at his career sv% of each game# he plays (so all career shots faced vs career GA of game #1, game#2....#40, #50 etc)

the trend of his career seems to be v good beginning, meh-ish middle, v good end (looking at a rolling-15 career game average *since each "game#" is potentially 8 seasons worth). 0.916 is his career sv%.
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Mortimer Snerd said:
Goalie stats don't mean much, if anything, in a small sample. So I'll just go by the eye-test. He has been weak this series.

Every goalie gets flukey goals scored against him and makes some flukey saves too. It all comes out in the wash - if you have a large sample. His career stats don't mean squat in this series either. He is not playing up to his own standard.
Click to expand...

I think some of you expect him to be superman night in night out and that's not overly fair expectations for him.

Without him, we are waiting for the lottery to see If we keep our top 5 pick or move up or down. Instead waiting for game 5.

Whenever this thread gets bumped, it's just ridiculousness that follows and some sort of pretend expert knowledge from folks who have never done it.

Without Helle, we are golfing. Waiting for Chevy to pick Fantilli

His series sample size is irrelevant, has he been great? No. Bad? No. Average? I'd agree below but without him, it's all a moot point so the goalie topic annoys me because the goalie can really only do so much but watching the game, it seems like he's made lots of unreal how did he stop it saves too tho so it's a weird one. Jets appear to give up lots of shots In close or more bang bang... Vegas crashes the net too. Jets D hasn't been good since Josh got hurt

Least of the problems

He's the guy that I sign long term if I wanna reload instead of rebuild. The other Connor is more of a problem right now
 
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KFnC204 said:
I think some of you expect him to be superman night in night out and that's not overly fair expectations for him.

Without him, we are waiting for the lottery to see If we keep our top 5 pick or move up or down. Instead waiting for game 5.

Whenever this thread gets bumped, it's just ridiculousness that follows and some sort of pretend expert knowledge from folks who have never done it.

Without Helle, we are golfing. Waiting for Chevy to pick Fantilli

His series sample size is irrelevant, has he been great? No. Bad? No. Average? I'd agree below but without him, it's all a moot point so the goalie topic annoys me because the goalie can really only do so much

Least of the problems

He's the guy that I sign long term if I wanna reload instead of rebuild
Click to expand...
I feel like I've made this post a million times but maybe Ill try my luck again. Do you agree that there is a spot between "hasek" Helley, and, "pavelec" Helley, and that it's a reasonable middle point to expect as a floor? Yes or no
 
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