Player Discussion: 2024 Vezina Winner Connor Hellebuyck

[StumpyTown]

Team defense plays a huge part in a goalies save %. Vegas generated so many high end chances that there isn't a goalie in the world that would stop many more than Helle did this series. That's not saying that Helle looked at all stellar, but imagine just how bad it would have been with Rittich, or going back in time, Pavelec. Looking at all the goals Vegas scored, there were only 2 that I would put on Helle screwing them up. All the others were either perfect plays, deflections, or 2nd chances where the team defense hangs him out to dry.

In this series the team made Helle look bad, not the other way around.

Game 1: No soft goals.
Game 2: No soft goals.
Game 3: Stephenson 1-0
Game 4: Theodore 3-1
Game 5: No soft goals.

 

[White Out 902]

Team defense plays a huge part in a goalies save %. Vegas generated so many high end chances that there isn't a goalie in the world that would stop many more than Helle did this series. That's not saying that Helle looked at all stellar, but imagine just how bad it would have been with Rittich, or going back in time, Pavelec. Looking at all the goals Vegas scored, there were only 2 that I would put on Helle screwing them up. All the others were either perfect plays, deflections, or 2nd chances where the team defense hangs him out to dry.

In this series the team made Helle look bad, not the other way around.

Game 1: No soft goals.
Game 2: No soft goals.
Game 3: Stephenson 1-0
Game 4: Theodore 3-1
Game 5: No soft goals.

Going in to last nights game sportsnet showed a graphic that 5 on 5 the Jets and GK had identical high danger chances but they had far more goals.

Helley sucked and our team D sucked. Not mutually exclusive. Broissoit had a great series.

 

[WickedPegJets]

Connor Hellebyck isn’t a playoff proven goalie. He’s fantastic during the regular season, however come postseason time, he crumples like a cheap polyester suit. He was clearly overshadowed by former Jets backup goalie Laurent Boissart!

Connor will be a UFA after next season. Does Chevy resign him, lessen his workload and hope that will solve the problem come playoff time, or trade him? Plenty of goalie poor teams will want him for sure.

 

[NotCommitted]

His career playoff record is practically identical to his career reg season record, if anything the completely irrelevant difference in numbers favors the playoffs.

Didn't have a good series against Vegas but the Jets have been in the extremely lucky position of getting stable goaltending for years, if he has a good year he's Vezina caliber and even in his bad years he's average at worst.

I get it, similar thing happened in Boston all the time, for part of the fan base anything less than the Tim Thomas cup run was just sub par, I guess it's the same with some Jets fans and Pavelec

 

[Victorias]

Connor Hellebyck isn’t a playoff proven goalie. He’s fantastic during the regular season, however come postseason time, he crumples like a cheap polyester suit. He was clearly overshadowed by former Jets backup goalie Laurent Boissart!

Connor will be a UFA after next season. Does Chevy resign him, lessen his workload and hope that will solve the problem come playoff time, or trade him? Plenty of goalie poor teams will want him for sure.

Team defense plays a huge part in a goalies save %. Vegas generated so many high end chances that there isn't a goalie in the world that would stop many more than Helle did this series. That's not saying that Helle looked at all stellar, but imagine just how bad it would have been with Rittich, or going back in time, Pavelec. Looking at all the goals Vegas scored, there were only 2 that I would put on Helle screwing them up. All the others were either perfect plays, deflections, or 2nd chances where the team defense hangs him out to dry.

In this series the team made Helle look bad, not the other way around.

Game 1: No soft goals.
Game 2: No soft goals.
Game 3: Stephenson 1-0
Game 4: Theodore 3-1
Game 5: No soft goals.

He did face a lot of high danger chances but I think your expectations are too low for a guy about to command a massive contract.

In Game 2, he gave up a bad rebound that created a goal and in Game 5 he overplayed the shot and was out of position, leading to a tap in for the opener. So, at a minimum that’s 4 goals in 5 games that are on him. And you could argue for several others he should have stopped/played better (though he absolutely made several A+ saves). Overall, he didn’t outplay Broissoit, so why pay him more?

I wouldn’t say he’s not a playoff goalie as his regular season and playoff SP are identical (.916). But he’s not stealing games the way you need him to if you’re paying him as a top 5 goalie.

 

[DRW204]

His career playoff record is practically identical to his career reg season record, if anything the completely irrelevant difference in numbers favors the playoffs.

Didn't have a good series against Vegas but the Jets have been in the extremely lucky position of getting stable goaltending for years, if he has a good year he's Vezina caliber and even in his bad years he's average at worst.

I get it, similar thing happened in Boston all the time, for part of the fan base anything less than the Tim Thomas cup run was just sub par, I guess it's the same with some Jets fans and Pavelec

The stats are similar however if you look relative to the rest of the league ie: other nhl goalie stats in the PO's they're middle of the pack

I remember looking at this otherday, from 17-18 he was ranked 15/28 in po sv% of goalies with 10+ PO starts (not sure what the correct benchmark is but just estimated two series worth)

 

[molon labe]

Connor Hellebyck isn’t a playoff proven goalie. He’s fantastic during the regular season, however come postseason time, he crumples like a cheap polyester suit. He was clearly overshadowed by former Jets backup goalie Laurent Boissart!

Connor will be a UFA after next season. Does Chevy resign him, lessen his workload and hope that will solve the problem come playoff time, or trade him? Plenty of goalie poor teams will want him for sure.

We want him.

What do you guys want in return?

 

[gojetsgo]

We want him.

What do you guys want in return?

1st + 3rd + prospect

 

[molon labe]

1st + 3rd + prospect

I don't mind the 14OA this year being the centerpiece.

Additional draft pick or a prospect interest you more? I think asking for more is too much for one year without good retention. Don't really see many teams picking 10-20 who'd be as interested as the Pens will be - and picking top 10 in this draft it would be silly to trade that for any goalie.

 

[gojetsgo]

I don't mind the 14OA this year being the centerpiece.

Additional draft pick or a prospect interest you more? I think asking for more is too much for one year without good retention. Don't really see many teams picking 10-20 who'd be as interested as the Pens will be - and picking top 10 in this draft it would be silly to trade that for any goalie.

just basing the value off of the kuemper trade, who helle is far better than

 

[molon labe]

just basing the value off of the kuemper trade, who helle is far better than

Obviously deeper draft here in 2023.

I think the deeper draft offsets value and the better goalie. But, we are in obvious need - so giving a little more shouldn't be an issue. Bigger add if retention was considered to help us ease out of the Jeff Carter contract and hope for a bigger cap bump in 24.

Top targets on our board are: Saros, Hellebuyck, Swayman/Ullmark, Gibson (heavily debated). I'd personally prefer any of Saros, Hellebuyck, or Ullmark. Gibson only if he came super cheap but that seems unlikely based on his term.

 

[Jets4Life]

Connor Hellebyck isn’t a playoff proven goalie. He’s fantastic during the regular season, however come postseason time, he crumples like a cheap polyester suit. He was clearly overshadowed by former Jets backup goalie Laurent Boissart!

Connor will be a UFA after next season. Does Chevy resign him, lessen his workload and hope that will solve the problem come playoff time, or trade him? Plenty of goalie poor teams will want him for sure.

Even though posters have already pointed out that Hellebuycks stats in the playoffs are actually superior than his regular season stats, there are still uneducated fools who will blame hiim for this loss.

Did Hellebuyck play great in this series? no.
Neither did Tuuka Rask in 2018 and 2020.
Neither did Jusse Saros in 2020
Neither did MAF in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2019
Neither did Andrei Vasilevski in 2015, 2019, and 2023.
Neither did Sergei Bobrovsky in 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2023.
Neither did Carey Price in 2009, 2010, and 2013.

Hellebuyck is an elite goalie, but there is a vocal minority of people who are expecting him to be as good as Dominic Hasek, and we should trade him if he falls short of that. Even in Hellebuyck's Vezina Trophy season, he was still getting shit on from certain forum members, which leads me to believe people will complain about everything, and offer no solution.

For the people who want Hellebuyck gone, I have one question: Who are we going to replace him with?

 

[Jets4Life]

n/m

 

[White Out 902]

Hellebuyck is an elite goalie, but there is a vocal minority of people who are expecting him to be as good as Dominic Hasek, and we should trade him if he falls short of that. Even in Hellebuyck's Vezina Trophy season, he was still getting shit on from certain forum members, which leads me to believe people will complain about everything, and offer no solution.

For the people who want Hellebuyck gone, I have one question: Who are we going to replace him with?

I notice a number of logical fallacies and greasy debate tactics, so let me address a couple things.

to the 1st bolded, this is my big pet peeve right now. The dude finished well below 900 in the Vegas series. Sportsnet, a totally neutral Canadian broadcast, who would have no axe to grind, pointed the finger at the series being tilted in the VGK favour due to the 5 on 5 disparity of goals. They noted how the Jets were winning special teams, but, the huge goal difference 5 on 5 was the difference. The kicker here is that 5 on 5 high danger chances before game 5 was identical. There is a huge gap between Hasek and someone who's playing that far below replacement level. You can keep lying and saying people want Hasek, when we'd settle on quality starts. I'm sure this is the 3rd seperate time I wrote that.

For the 2nd I dont want him gone. I want him on a reasonable term or traded for assets. Who will we place him with? I dunno, VGK seems to do be doing great with Brossoit. We had Comrie. Lots of options. If you're doing a rebuild because Helley wants McDavid money, I dont care if Mick e. Moose is in net.

 

[Jets4Life]

You can keep lying and saying people want Hasek, when we'd settle on quality starts. I'm sure this is the 3rd seperate time I wrote that.

You have a terrible history of shitting on Hellebuyck for no reason (i.e his 2019-20 Vezina Trophy season), and your posting history verifies this.

For the 2nd I dont want him gone. I want him on a reasonable term or traded for assets. Who will we place him with? I dunno, VGK seems to do be doing great with Brossoit. We had Comrie. Lots of options. If you're doing a rebuild because Helley wants McDavid money, I dont care if Mick e. Moose is in net.

Good luck with that. Realistically, we're not going to get a replacement goaltender anywhere remotely close to Hellebuyck. Brossoit has played a grand total of 16 games for Vegas,. He is technically older than Hellebuyck, and tends to have one good year, followed by a bad year, playing 1/4 the workload. Comrie is 28, and had one good year as a backup, Steve Mason was a bust. Pavelec was mediocre at best. Rittich, Montoya, and Hutchinson were career backups.

10 goalies have played for the Jets since their return in 2011. None have come remotely close to outperforming Hellebuyck.

 

[Atoyot]

I feel like I've made this post a million times but maybe Ill try my luck again. Do you agree that there is a spot between "hasek" Helley, and, "pavelec" Helley, and that it's a reasonable middle point to expect as a floor? Yes or no

Do you think Hasek has never had a bad 4 game stretch?

 

[DRW204]

Hellebuyck was third in 2017-18 during the playoffs. Only MAF and Martin Jones performed better.

source: NHL Goalie Playoff Stats 2018

sorry i might have not written that out properly

from 17-18 to-date he is:
15th in PO SV% out of 28 goalies that have started 10+ games (again, don't know the proper bench-mark to set for gp here).

edit: actually just double checking this now since it looks like a few others have hit the benchmark. he is 19th/32.

he was great in 17-18... that was also 5 years ago now.

 

[White Out 902]

Do you think Hasek has never had a bad 4 game stretch?

I'm sure he has.

 

[Jets4Life]

sorry i might have not written that out properly

from 17-18 to-date he is:
15th in PO SV% out of 28 goalies that have started 10+ games (again, don't know the proper bench-mark to set for gp here).

edit: actually just double checking this now since it looks like a few others have hit the benchmark. he is 19th/32.

he was great in 17-18... that was also 5 years ago now.

My bad....I interpreted your post as 2017-18 exclusively. Helle did play great in 2020-21, and was about average in 2019. Not so well in the pay-in against Calgary or this season playoffs.

 

[DRW204]

My bad....I interpreted your post as 2017-18 exclusively. Helle did play great in 2020-21, and was above average in 2019. Not so well in the pay-in against Calgary or this season playoffs.

all good.

honestly don't remember his play during the STL series all too much. He did exceptional against EDM in the CDN Division year, i think he was closer to average/below average against MTL.

i don't think anyone is expecting Hasek, and really all your deflections or whatabouisms/neither-dids don't really help. he was poor this series and got outplayed by Brossoit, at a position the Jets really should've had a huge advantage. Posters allowed to comment on that.

between the softies, or extremely early goalies that had this team chasing.... he was the complete opposite of clutch.

 

[Jets4Life]

i don't think anyone is expecting Hasek, and really all your deflections or whatabouisms/neither-dids don't really help. he was poor this series and got outplayed by Brossoit, at a position the Jets really should've had a huge advantage. Posters allowed to comment on that.

The point I am trying to make, is that even the top goalies of the past 20 years have all had poor playoff performances. Pointing out Hellebuyck was sub-par in this series is fair. Saying he is "horrible" in the playoffs, and the Jets "would be better off trading him" is pretty ridiculous.

If Hellebuyck refuses to sign an extension with the Jets, we are in big trouble.

 

[Victorias]

I'm sure he has.

Of course. But Hasek led the league in save percentage 6(!) years in a row. THAT is the only type of goalie (aka no one today) worth giving a big contract to.

Schmid is outplaying Shesterkin, Samsonov is outplaying/equal to Vasilevski, Ullmark is going to win the Vezina…it’s not worth building around any goalie. Trade Helle, replace him with two budget guys, ideally one with upside, and spend the money elsewhere.

FWIW, the top 10 goalie contracts. Are ANY of them worth it? Maybe Vasi and Helle’s old contract. Going forward I wouldn’t want any of them, especially with a higher salary for Helle

 

[Jets4Life]

Word on the street is Helle is a wanted man, should he become available.



Ottawa and New Jersey are also rumoured to be very interested in Helle, if he does not sign with Winnipeg.

 

[Jets4Life]

 

[ps241]

”IF” Helle is going as part of the larger plan then you sell him if and when the market is hot. If you have young teams like LA , New Jersey, and possibly Ottawa you really only need two to create competition. Helle has been our rock and I will miss him but we need to maximize the return on such a key organization asset.

I love Helle but I don’t want his next contract for a team that is not in contention. Same as Scheif I have zero interest in Mark’s next contract for this team.