Scoring is a lot higher now than it was in Getzlaf's prime. Save percentages league wide are the lowest they've been in 30 years IIRC.
Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)
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Scoring is a lot higher now than it was in Getzlaf's prime. Save percentages league wide are the lowest they've been in 30 years IIRC.
The Midnight Burrito
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Yeah, scoring goes up and down, like I said it's an arbitrary gauge for "franchise" player status. Proof is in the pudding on those guys.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I was agreeing with you that Celebrini looks like he could be a franchise player. Getting 100 points depends largely on the team construction. Pre-Twins era, Teemu and Kariya hit over 100 points a few times. Twins era, Getz, Perry, and Teemu never hit over 100 points. Pre-Twins era, the Ducks weren't a perennial playoff team. Twins era, they were.
Last year's #1 -3 picks (Bedard, Fantilli, and Carlsson) have all ended up injured this year. All three of their respective teams remain in the bottom-5 of the league. The top-5 picks in the 2021 draft class didn't stay in the NHL after being drafted; four of the five never touched NHL ice as they all belonged to NCAA Michigan and the remaining draftee, McTavish, stuck around for 9 NHL games before being returned. Between those two drafts, Bedard is the only generational talent and he was 100% going to the NHL.
There's a high chance that Celebrini will be in the NHL next year, but I don't know if it is a 100% chance he'll be in the NHL next year. Celebrini isn't a generational talent like Bedard. Physically, Celebrini is a hockey season younger than most top-end draft picks. Fantilli basically played in the NCAA as an 18-year old, where as Celebrini won't turn 18 until a couple of weeks before the draft. The Carlsson experiment with the Ducks doesn't look like it is working out the way the org planned. With a bottom-5 team, I don't comprehend the urgency to bring a prospect to the NHL right away, unless that player is a generational type player. Those teams are in a rebuild and rebuilds take quite some time to complete. Which is why I said "I hope whoever picks him lets him stew for another year in college."
100 is certainly a nice number to hit, but you have to look further than just that. in no way is RNH is a franchise guy, i'm not even sure he's a 1st liner on a team without 2 elite guys in front of him.
altho i this context, that could mean he doesn't seem him a franchise talent, but i'm not sure i agree. Rod Brind'amour was a franchise player but didn't quite put up numbers like that. And there are a lot of guys like that, Gabe Landeskog is another.
altho i this context, that could mean he doesn't seem him a franchise talent, but i'm not sure i agree. Rod Brind'amour was a franchise player but didn't quite put up numbers like that. And there are a lot of guys like that, Gabe Landeskog is another.
WhatTheDuck
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I think what Button was trying to say, was that Celebrini doesn't need to be a perennial 100 point guy in order to be a franchise changing center. He's going to be a two way beast.
Iggy wiggy wiggy woo woo is the highest of quality goal calls
Iggy wiggy wiggy woo woo is the highest of quality goal calls
The Midnight Burrito
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WhatTheDuck
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I think he was trying to sound like a locomotive?
WhatTheDuck
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Rasp
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Yak sort of reminds me a bit of a more physical Klingberg. Size, average skating, sorta redhead/blonde RHD, hands and shot. Peak Klingberg was a star for about 5 years but I’d still prefer someone who can defend and not fade like one dimensional players do… like Green, Ekman Larsson, Yandle, Chabot types.
All Mighty
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There is A LOT in this article.
theathletic.com
Who will draft Trevor Connelly? Inside the NHL's evolving scrutiny of top prospects
NHL evaluators are encountering new areas of concern when judging the suitability of prospects for their franchises.
theathletic.com
I posted this as a comment there, but it's a topic I'm very interested in as a parent of teenagers and a high school coach. I don't know if this is a good place to try to have this discussion, but I'm curious as to thoughts from folks here.There is A LOT in this article.
Who will draft Trevor Connelly? Inside the NHL's evolving scrutiny of top prospects
NHL evaluators are encountering new areas of concern when judging the suitability of prospects for their franchises.
In the high level youth sports world, unfortunately there is often a willful ignorance and tolerance of poor behavior in order to attract and keep talent. Coaches and administrators struggle to determine how to discipline a kid who shows this kind of behavior - do we cut his playing time? Make him do extra conditioning? Remove him from the program entirely? I think youth coaches are hugely influential in kids' lives; they can make a big difference in whether this behavior is curtailed or allowed to persist. Parents, obviously, are also a big factor here.
But the question remains - how do we help this kid get better? What is the NHL's responsibility to a kid like this? What is society's responsibility? One way or another, he's going to be a part of society and bring whatever attitudes and behaviors and worldviews to his community. If the NHL rejects him, which may be completely justified, does his bitterness cause him to lean into his bad behavior? Or will it teach him that actions have consequences and push him to better himself?
Could an NHL team potentially help him grow as a human being, providing a more diverse, better regulated environment where he's forced to confront and correct his hurtful tendencies in order to advance? Or will that simply perpetuate the abusive tendencies, subconsciously reinforcing the idea that he can act out and still be rewarded with a career in professional hockey?
I honestly don't know the answers to any of these questions. They're not simple, they're not black-and-white issues. Where does justice meet rehabilitation? At what point does punishment cross the line into becoming punitive? I believe in grace and forgiveness, but I also believe in caring for victims and in accountability for perpetrators. This is a really, really difficult topic to parse.
Playing in the NHL is a privilege not a right. Connelly will get drafted. At some point he'll be worth the risk to a team. At that point it will be up to him to display that he's become a better person than his actions thus far show him to be.
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The more concerning part of the article is the fact that he left 2 junior programs after 2 weeks. Obviously the racists shit is concerning, but its possible to chock it up as an idiot kid trying to be edgy. I knew people like that as a teenager and they turned out to be good guys and not racist pieces of shit.
But people who are so toxic that they can't make it work in situations, that shit is a bad sign. 2 weeks is nothing. If the situation between him and coaches or him and other players got so bad in 2 weeks that he left, then that is really bad. 1 time you give him the benefit of the doubt, but twice? No, he is a problem.
I would put him on the do not draft list, which sucks because it would be awesome to get a kid from Tustin.
But people who are so toxic that they can't make it work in situations, that shit is a bad sign. 2 weeks is nothing. If the situation between him and coaches or him and other players got so bad in 2 weeks that he left, then that is really bad. 1 time you give him the benefit of the doubt, but twice? No, he is a problem.
I would put him on the do not draft list, which sucks because it would be awesome to get a kid from Tustin.
Theres alot of interesting big two-way dmen in this draft... but are there any Adam Lowry types? I'm sure Detroit is hoping Michael Rasmussen ends up being that type for them.
Would love to see us invest in our prospect pool by adding a Cernak + Lowry type along with a top prospect in the next 4 months.
Would love to see us invest in our prospect pool by adding a Cernak + Lowry type along with a top prospect in the next 4 months.
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No. They would only do that if Connelly pulled himself out of the draft.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Here's a compilation of four rankings for the draft. Lots of variances in ranking after Celebrini.
www.bleachernation.com
2024 NHL Draft: Let's Compare Four Analysts' Mid-Term Prospect Rankings - Bleacher Nation
How do prospect rankings differ among NHL draft analysts?
www.bleachernation.com
It is really hard, as you say.
People do grow and change, especially from when they are teenagers. That's the best time to learn and grow. Hopefully, we've all learned, grown, and changed since our teenage years, or at least known people who have. But we've also probably met a few who didn't or even got worse. Maybe with help they would have gotten better.
I think one thing to think about is does this person sound and act like someone who has changed or wants to improve themselves? Do they understand what they did was wrong and the harm it has caused?
I think that will help guide the answers to some of the questions you have posted here.
Two of my favorite examples of people who learned, grew, and changed were Mike Vick and Ray Rice in the NFL. Both did things that are worse than anything Connelly has been accused of. Both took responsibility for their actions, went to therapy (probably court mandated), worked on themselves, and went above and beyond what their sentences required to make amends for their actions through work volunteering for organizations that help victims of the crimes they committed. It's easy to tell reading and hearing interviews they do and through their actions they are truly sorry about what they did and have worked to grow.
As someone else pointed out, playing in the NHL is a privilege, not a right. I don't believe Ray Rice ever played in the NFL again. He continued on his path anyway.
In this instance, after reading the article, it doesn't seem like Connelly has really accepted that his behavior is wrong. Even when apologizing he often blames his circumstances and others around him. He doesn't seem to be doing any work other than what he is required to do. He doesn't seem like he really wants the help to change even though he has been given the opportunity. So in this instance, I don't think the NHL or society owes him any more help in changing than he wants to take.
He's still young and much closer to the bad behavior than a lot of us message board posters are and our friends who we saw mature into good people. It sometimes takes decades and often many years. How many of those jerks we knew in middle/high school were jerks at 16 and good people at 18? I'd imagine not many.
Finally, if there's one thing that definitely doesn't help people turn into better people, it's having enough money to not have to be accountable to anyone. 2nd and 3rd round draft picks in the NHL aren't making that kind of money, but often kids don't realize how little money that actually is when it has to last a lifetime.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Leaving everything else aside, and assuming it's true, I think pissing on some kid's gear in retaliation for that kid hazing you is 100% acceptable and also kind of awesome.
TopShelfWaterBottle
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The Midnight Burrito
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So Ivan's dad was a Dov and his mom was a human.
edit - I'm worried that I've made this joke before and just don't remember.
edit - I'm worried that I've made this joke before and just don't remember.
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GunnarStahl
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