Most of us are joking, but it is frustrating that over the last 20 years, the top 11 (about 1/3) most valuable franchise have won something like 13 of the #1 picks, the original 6 have won more than the bottom 14 teams combined. During that time, the bottom 11 teams had 4 #1 picks and the middle 10 had 3 (both expansion teams were in the middle 10). Rationally we know it's not rigged, emotionally the fact that big markets keep winning it makes us mad.
Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)
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To be fair, the #2 pick can only be "retained" if the number one pick is "retained." If number 1 is different, number 2 has to be different. So we're looking at 0-4.
Edit, NM. I thought about it and #2 could win number 2 and #1 could fall to number 3. But it's not likely at all. I'm pretty new and not sure how to delete a post, sorry.
WhatTheDuck
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Rasp
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- Apr 9, 2019
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Yakemchuk flying up the rankings! Sitting at 6th on their board.
Also 6 D in the top 10. Its a very D heavy draft up top.
IMO we draft one of these two guys:
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The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
I think this is right, but also, "an international lottery company" and "the third largest accounting firm in the world" don't exactly make the intended point about inviolable integrity.
- Jul 25, 2012
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Those are the 2 I want personally if we don’t get celebrini , Dickinson 3rd option
It wasn't a point about their integrity. It was a point about risk. What would be the upside of this massive conspiracy for those companies? And that is completely bypassing the logic of if the NHL would want it to happen in the first place lol.
Anyways, lets move on. Its a batshit conspiracy theory based on complete conjecture and I genuinely loose respect for people that think it is likely happening.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Leaving aside whether it would actually need to be "massive," the upside would be financial, which is the point of being a gigantic company in the first place. And I think the NHL does want the result, but they're the ones (if any) who'd probably be deterred by the risk. They're a franchisor with a large market cap but whose revenue derives largely from the branding of the franchisees and isn't all that intrinsic -- they're just not in a position to manipulate the market that way. So the thing that makes the conspiracy sound real (it helps the league when big market teams do well) is basically the same thing that makes the conspiracy impossible.
But international accounting firms, those kinds of companies are good at hiding things in plain sight, it's a service they provide. Their involvement makes shady shit more likely, not less, was my point.
Anyway, I think the NHL would rig the lottery but wouldn't dare. So I doubt it for that reason.
In theory, it should even out over time. So there should be a string of the less popular/lower value franchises winning lotteries, hopefully in the near future. When (if?) teams like Arizona or San Jose, or Anaheim win a few lotteries in a row, it'll go the other way and fans of big markets will complain it's rigged... especially if the Matthews/Bedard level talents are going to non-traditional markets. We just haven't seen that happen since... ever. Hopefully it starts this year with Anaheim jumping Chitcago for #1 from the #3 spot.
robbieboy3686
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Hockey Duckie
Registered User
It could happen that we win this year's lottery, but it's a pale comparison to winning last year's lottery. Winning the lottery this year wouldn't mend the "rigged conspiracy" idea b/c a big team market got the generational talent.
Just looking at the Ducks lottery events alone, we came up short in the Sidney Crosby in the 2005 lottery. In the 2019 draft, we got leapfrogged from a team below us to drop to 9th. In the 2020 draft, we got leapfrogged again from a team below us to drop to 6th. With the 2nd highest chance of winning the lottery in the 2021 draft, Anaheim got shafted once again by an expansion team, Seattle, a team below us. For the 2022 draft, we finished 10th worst record and remained at the 10th pick in the draft... shockingly. Of course, there is the recent dropping in 2023 to lose out on Bedard.
In the multiple draw era (2016 - present), Anaheim has moved down four out of five times.
(Just in case the uploaded image didn't come up, here's the link to the lottery winners: source )
- Since 2016 draft (8 years)
- Retained the 1st pick:
- Toronto (2016)
- Buffalo x2 (2018, 2021)
- Montreal (2022)
- Moved up in the draft more than once:
- New Jersey x3 (2017 to 1st, 2019 to 1st, and 2022 to 2nd)
- Chicago x2 (2019 to 3rd and 2023 to 1st)
- NY Rangers x2 (2019 to 2nd and 2020 to 1st)
- Retained the 1st pick:
Looking at the chart, there appears to be a heavy bias towards the original six and big market east coast teams.
- Teams that didn't retain the 1st overall.
- 2017: Colorado had the worst record, Vancourver had the 2nd worst.
(NJ jumped from 5th to 1st.)
- 2019: Ottawa had the worst record, LA had the 2nd worst.
(NJ jumped from 3rd to 1st.)
- 2020 (COVID): Detroit had the worst record, SJ had the 2nd worst.
(NYR jumped from 8-15 to 1st.)
- 2023: Anaheim had the worst record, Columbus had the 2nd worst.
(Chicago jump from 3rd to 1st.)
- 2017: Colorado had the worst record, Vancourver had the 2nd worst.
We see all the mechanisms to show the lottery isn't rigged, but the results reflect a whole lot of bias to certain teams as opposed to the projected randomness of the lottery. To reduce that bias, these changes were made starting in the 2021 draft:
- 1. the NHL went from a 3-draw lottery to a 2-draw lottery
- 2. reduce the leapfrogging to 10 spots
- 3. no single team can "advance" in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in any five-year period. This limitation will not affect a club’s ability to retain its presumptive draft position in any Draft Lottery
Anaheim has been shafted twice in three years with the new rules in place with the 2nd best chance in 2021 and best chance in 2023.
That #3 rule is sketchy. Chicago advanced in 2023. If Chicago ends up with the worst pick in 2024 and "retains" the 1st overall pick, then that doesn't count towards the "advance" counter. Which means Chicago can win the lottery (advance) one more time in ensuing three drafts. But I digress.
The fact the NHL had to implement the 2021 new rules says they too noticed the bias. With three drafts completed under the new rules, it still feels like there's bias in the lottery.
Anyways, back to the prospects...
I called Yakemchuk working his way into the top 10 at the start of the year. He is the prototypical Ducks pick if Bob was still the GM. Hard to tell if PV will make a difference.
I called Yakemchuk working his way into the top 10 at the start of the year. He is the prototypical Ducks pick if Bob was still the GM. Hard to tell if PV will make a difference.
It would be interesting to see how much influence the GM has on the pick. The scouting staff is mostly the same I think. Based on last year, it sounds like he goes with a consensus since he said Carlsson was unanimous among the scouts and him (after debate I think?).
Rasp
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You can see from the difference in our drafting since BM left. We used to have a bias towards high skill players and now seem to only want to draft bigger players
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I'm not sure Yakemchuk is Murray's prototypical Ducks' d-man pick in the top-5. Yakemchuk's defense and discipline isn't there. He's like a taller Montour. Murray drafted the more defensive-minded Pettersson before drafting the offensive Monty in the 2014 draft.
MMC
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AngelDuck
Rak 'em up
- Jun 16, 2012
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Not sure but I personally just can’t see us taking a goalie after trading for Clang and drafting Clara last season. Unless it’s just such an obvious pick
And we should sign Suchanek
- Jul 25, 2012
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Ya I’d rather just sign suchanek and not worry about a goalie too much…. Unless someone were high on just falls into our lap
Yeah. If we see someone we really like then sure. But we don't HAVE to pick one, as we have Dostal, Clang, Suchanek, Clara, all of whom have a potential. Albeit Clang is falling a bit
Goalies are such a shit show. Just take one every year in like the 5th round and hope you hit once every 10 years lol.
Smirnov2Chistov
Fire Greg Cronin!
Obviously, but in a Drysdale/Sanderson situation where they have them equal you take the position of need.
If they have Silayev and Levshunov ranked the same then they should take Levshunov.
Vaakou
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