Now do Kaprizov's stats after his draft year like you're using Michkov's after his draft year. Granted, the KHL has changed dramatically since then but this isn't going to support that argument nor really make much of a case for Michkov being average.
2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!
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- Oct 12, 2020
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100% agree.
It was the trading up to get him that made me cringe.
Would love to get an access to scouting teams information to see how was that pick the one to be taken.
I'm familiar it's a never ending cycle if we start hindsighting every draft pick, but this was one of the ones I have never understood.
Hunter Brzustewicz (RD) had all the signs at that pick to be taken since we needed defencemen and right handed. (He was drafted 3 picks later)
hohosaregood
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I'm gonna make a burning hot take. I think Svoboda and Klee are gonna be good 4th liners for us.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
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I really hope so too even though I've been bashing that pick for god knows how long.
Joe Pavelski, is it you?
- Jul 25, 2007
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Where did you get these rankings from?
Mathematically backed NHLe calculations still put the KHL as #2 in the world as recently as last summer. AHL is 4th behind SHL in 3rd.
Rethinking NHLe
How to translate performances from one league into NHL value
thibaudchatel.substack.com
NHLe is not perfect, but it's not really reasonable to just say, "I believe the KHL is the 4th best league in the world because reasons." You've gotta be more data-driven than that.
At any rate, it is not "starting to show that Michkov only had one exceptional year." He is having an exceptional D+1 year. There was a good debate on eliteprospects about whether Michkov or Demidov is a better prospect, with one arguing Demidov and the other arguing Michkov, but both agree that Michkov has significantly reduced the risk of the pick with his performance this year in the KHL. I personally am still not sold that we should have picked him over Smith, but it's a pretty big stretch to say he's not having a great year.
hohosaregood
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There was another guy Chance McCallum who wrote an NHLe article arguing that the KHL was on a severe decline but looks like he purged all his hockey content. The prink side article below is kinda all that's left from what I can see.
eprinkside.com
Russian hockey has been declining for years, it’s time to adjust how we view the prospects
Once a contender for second best league in the world, KHL has fallen in prospect development. Chace McCallum looks at the decline of hockey in Russia as evidenced by the KHL, VHL, and MHL.
eprinkside.com
sharski
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I'm just not as favorable on Levshunov as others are. He definitely has potential for offense, but there are others in the draft with better stats. I don't see him as being drafted 2nd or 3rd where I've seen people predict. I think 4th or 5th is more likely.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
You could be totally right that Lev doesn’t go until 4-5, but I think you’re extremely underrating the offense of an 18 year old defenseman putting up nearly a PPG in the NCAA and leading his team in scoring.
Parekh is the only guy I think who has higher offensive potential than Levshunov. Buium might have better stats but he’s only third on his own NCAA team and Denver is so stacked they have 11 drafted NHL prospects not including him. If you like Buium more because you watched both and like Buium more, I totally respect that. But rating Buium higher than Levshunov purely because of stats isn’t something I can get behind. I’d be thrilled to draft Buium with the Pens pick or even as high as ~8th theoretically, but I watched a lot of the NTDP last year and Buium just wasn’t that good. I’m skeptical that he developed this much in just a year as a December birthday and don’t see him having #1D upside.
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One thing as a sidenote on the D is that I think we in this thread might be a bit behind on the rise of Yakemchuk... In his thread some are talking about him being first off the board, which is probably a bit rich, but he's got everything you want in a RHD except for elite skating, and even then he's still able to get around. He shut down McKenna recently and he infuriated Lindstrom
... The Corey Perry-Brent Burns love child. Could definitely be one of the first 3 D off the board. Only knocks are "late birthday" which is probably overrated, and his rough skating style. Jux mentioned in his thread re: the Burns upside Comp, although he's probably not as good a skater as Burns at the same age, I'm not sure about Burnzie's profile at his draft.
... The Corey Perry-Brent Burns love child. Could definitely be one of the first 3 D off the board. Only knocks are "late birthday" which is probably overrated, and his rough skating style. Jux mentioned in his thread re: the Burns upside Comp, although he's probably not as good a skater as Burns at the same age, I'm not sure about Burnzie's profile at his draft.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
His shot, hands, and style of activation reminds me of Burns for sure. His defense shortcomings remind me of Burns as well, but are proof that you can still be one of the best defensemen in the NHL without being great defensively.
But Yakemchuk’s skating is average at best and he’s still quite a bit smaller than Burns, so I don’t think he has Burns’ upside. Still, I like the player a lot. I have Levshunov and Dickinson a tier above Yakemchuk/Parekh/Buium/Silayev, but I really like all those players a ton. If any of those four defensemen make it to the Pens pick, we’re laughing.
Still, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Yak go top-5. Past Celebrini literally anything could happen.
Also on a side note, I’m this close to saying “f*** it, Berkly Catton at 2nd overall”. He’s an animal.
StanleyCup2035
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Would you mind sharing your upside/base case/downside projection on Catton, please? Is this accurate:
Upside: Good 2C on a good team
Base case: Average 2C on a good team, good 2C on a bad team
Downside: 3rd line center
StanleyCup2035
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Silayev looks to have sustained a serious injury:
Draft him with the Pittsburgh pick.
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Just like we planned (evil laugh) but seriously if somehow we end up with Celebrini and Silayev, that would be crazy
They'll just end up on Vegas in 5 years anyways
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Probably haha. NHL GM's just have to mute their phone for VGK and stop helping them out.
I have a nightmare about the first time VGK is in the draft lottery, they'll probably win it no matter the spot they are in the top 10.
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From reading his thread and watching, I think the "market" answer on this is:
Upside: Jack Hughes
Base case: average or good 2C
Downside: too small, never really figures it out in the NHL, 30-40 points max for 3-5 seasons.
Wouldn't be something if the Sharks get Macklin this draft, and PIT to SJ next year's pick wins the lottery? If PIT trades Guentzel, that may happen.
StanleyCup2035
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Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Upside is All-Star C in the Jack Hughes mold. Downside is decent top-9 winger for a few years like Labanc.
I’m less concerned about Catton’s size than the fact that he plays tons of minutes in all situations with absolutely no talent around him. He didn’t show well at the Top Prospects Game, and though that doesn’t mean all that much it did strengthen my concern. Guys who are used to doing it all in juniors sometimes struggle to adjust to playing in an NHL system. But Catton is crazy talented. If we hadn’t drafted a similar guy in Smith last year I might be fully on the Catton train.
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Sounds like he returned to the game - good for him.
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Yeah, that's probably the only thing keeping me from getting excited about him. He profiles like Smith or Eklund. No matter what, I think that precludes Grier from picking him, certainly in the top 5, and probably at 11-15ish also.
Even if the Sharks got that lucky they would still be a bottom 10 team. Eventually the Sharks need to invest a top asset on a D. In the case you laid out they would probably trade one of those 3 C’s for a 1D. As much as I want Celebrini if the Sharks can grab 2 of Levshunov/Dickinson/Silayev/Buium/Parekh/Yakemchuk it would instantly give them the potential for an Elite top 4.
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