2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

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we've joked about doomsday scenarios (chicago or Anaheim winning the lotto, pens getting a top pick and doing better next year, etc), but what is the best case scenario for the Sharks looking forward w/r/t draft lotto?

I think it's this:
  1. Sharks finish last and select 1st (don't "win" anything)
  2. Chicago finishes 2nd to last and drafts 3rd, Arizona drops to 3rd and drafts 4th, Anaheim finishes 4th and drafts 5th, because....
  3. One of the teams finishing 5-8 (CBJ, OTT, MTL), wins the 2nd lottery
  4. Pitt finishes 9/10 and keeps the pick, thus pushing the Sharks pick to 25. Dubas sells the farm after the draft, recouping a probable mid-1st in 25, while theirs becomes a top 5.
  5. NJ somehow makes the ECF
  6. Vegas trades their first and misses the playoffs somehow
That would give us:
2024 - 1OA, 29/30
2025 - 2 top 5 picks

And would block Chicago and Anaheim from a good outcome
I like your choice of weed if it produces these outcomes, feel free to share plz
 
we've joked about doomsday scenarios (chicago or Anaheim winning the lotto, pens getting a top pick and doing better next year, etc), but what is the best case scenario for the Sharks looking forward w/r/t draft lotto?

I think it's this:
  1. Sharks finish last and select 1st (don't "win" anything)
  2. Chicago finishes 2nd to last and drafts 3rd, Arizona drops to 3rd and drafts 4th, Anaheim finishes 4th and drafts 5th, because....
  3. One of the teams finishing 5-8 (CBJ, OTT, MTL), wins the 2nd lottery
  4. Pitt finishes 9/10 and keeps the pick, thus pushing the Sharks pick to 25. Dubas sells the farm after the draft, recouping a probable mid-1st in 25, while theirs becomes a top 5.
  5. NJ somehow makes the ECF
  6. Vegas trades their first and misses the playoffs somehow
That would give us:
2024 - 1OA, 29/30
2025 - 2 top 5 picks

And would block Chicago and Anaheim from a good outcome
My addition:
TBL goes deep in the playoffs, neutering Chicago's second pick in the first round.

I'm also not convinced that we wouldn't just want the 11th pick this year rather than the unprotected. Bird in the hand and all, plus a shot at an upside D at 11OA. Sure if they trade Crosby and Guentzel, and Letang and Malkin retire, they'll be a bottom 5 team, but they also probably shouldn't be as bad as they are this year.
 
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I'd rather have 11 or 12 OA this year than risking the unprotected 1st next year. The sooner we can develop a prospect the better, and it's nice that 10-13 range this year still fits into the upper tier(s) of this draft.
 
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Arizona will win, we will win, Pittsburgh will end up in the bottom 10 and we won't get the pick, then make a run to just make the playoffs next year and give us a mid pick.

We have no hope.
Arizona will win, we will win, Pittsburgh will end up in the bottom 10 and we won't get the pick, then make a run and win the cuo next year giving us basically a 2nd round pick.

Fixed it for you.
 
What our rebuild looks like is dependent on how good Eklund, Smith, Muk, Musty, and our upcoming picks really are. If they’re not formidable top of the lineup players, our rebuild is going to stall out. No Celebrini means more risk that the pick won’t be that caliber of player and for me less confidence that we have that sort of player. It’s not a boom or bust since one player isn’t really good enough for that but it’s difficult to get this thing off the ground without elite talent.
 
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Ultimately, Celebrini versus no Celebrini doesn't make mucha of a difference in the next few years becuase the Sharks are still so far away. I know people do not want to hear this but the Sharks are still 4-5 years away from being competitive.

Once you can accept that inital position it becomes much easier to accept.

The next part is that there is no guarantee that the Sharks will be legit Cup contenders in 4-5 years as the lottery and drafting is a complete crapshoot

.Again something to accept to be at peace with what is transpiring.

Celebrini is more about having a higher chance of being a legit cup contender rather than speeding up the time line.

One part that sucks is that if the Sharks cannot reach the bottom they could drop to 4th, which again would be a bad outcome given that there is a clear #1 and it appears that they could miss out on 2 higher ranked prospects and be back in the position of picking a player who is talented but has higher bust ceiling or a player with a lower ceiling higher floor.

The Sharks need dynamic players badly.
 
I'd rather have 11 or 12 OA this year than risking the unprotected 1st next year. The sooner we can develop a prospect the better, and it's nice that 10-13 range this year still fits into the upper tier(s) of this draft.
I'd rather have another round in the chamber next year tbh.

Also can someone explain the Hagens love? Was Misa not supposed to be the #1 in 2025?
 
The NHL clearly plays favorites and was never letting Bedard come to a smaller market like San Jose. He was destined for Chicago so long as they finished bottom 5. With that said though, they really do need to do the Sharks a solid and give us Cellebrini. Last in attendance, atrocious TV deal, if they really want to keep hockey in the Bay Area, the Sharks need this. Cellebrini having Bay Area ties should be all the more reason to guide him here
 
Ultimately, Celebrini versus no Celebrini doesn't make mucha of a difference in the next few years becuase the Sharks are still so far away. I know people do not want to hear this but the Sharks are still 4-5 years away from being competitive.

Once you can accept that inital position it becomes much easier to accept.

The next part is that there is no guarantee that the Sharks will be legit Cup contenders in 4-5 years as the lottery and drafting is a complete crapshoot

.Again something to accept to be at peace with what is transpiring.

Celebrini is more about having a higher chance of being a legit cup contender rather than speeding up the time line.

One part that sucks is that if the Sharks cannot reach the bottom they could drop to 4th, which again would be a bad outcome given that there is a clear #1 and it appears that they could miss out on 2 higher ranked prospects and be back in the position of picking a player who is talented but has higher bust ceiling or a player with a lower ceiling higher floor.

The Sharks need dynamic players badly.
Couple things I want to say here:

Yes Celebrini vs no Celebrini does make a difference. As you say later on, we need dynamic players and the draft is a crap shoot. Celebrini is the clear top/dynamic player in this class, and is the opposite of a crap shoot, as he is way way safer than the other top picks. Acquiring him sets our initial foundation down the Center with Celebrini-Smith-etc. Winning teams build down the middle, and that sets us up with two extremely dynamic centres to surround with scoring wingers. He's also the only prospect ready for the NHL next year, so that alone means drafting him puts us ahead of schedule as opposed to waiting anywhere from 1-3 years for anyone else.
 
The NHL clearly plays favorites and was never letting Bedard come to a smaller market like San Jose. He was destined for Chicago so long as they finished bottom 5. With that said though, they really do need to do the Sharks a solid and give us Cellebrini. Last in attendance, atrocious TV deal, if they really want to keep hockey in the Bay Area, the Sharks need this. Cellebrini having Bay Area ties should be all the more reason to guide him here
If by some miracle the Sharks actually win the lottery over Chicago or Anaheim, the league will definitely pick up the phone and make a personal apology to those teams
 
Couple things I want to say here:

Yes Celebrini vs no Celebrini does make a difference. As you say later on, we need dynamic players and the draft is a crap shoot. Celebrini is the clear top/dynamic player in this class, and is the opposite of a crap shoot, as he is way way safer than the other top picks. Acquiring him sets our initial foundation down the Center with Celebrini-Smith-etc. Winning teams build down the middle, and that sets us up with two extremely dynamic centres to surround with scoring wingers. He's also the only prospect ready for the NHL next year, so that alone means drafting him puts us ahead of schedule as opposed to waiting anywhere from 1-3 years for anyone else.
Agree with this. Getting Celebrini means that between Celebrini, Smith, Hertl, Eklund, and Bystedt we would be absolute set at center for ten years and would only have to worry about #1D in next year’s draft. If we were able to get Celebrini and let’s say Buium this year, our future looks like:

Musty-Celebrini-X
Eklund-Smith-X
X-Hertl-Bystedt

Buium-X
Mukhamadullin-X
Thrun-Emberson

Get that #1D via 2025 draft, trade or sign UFAs for wingers and the last top-4 D, take a couple of years of growing pains for the young guys, then you’re looking competitive assuming guys hit their average expected outcome.
 
Agree with this. Getting Celebrini means that between Celebrini, Smith, Hertl, Eklund, and Bystedt we would be absolute set at center for ten years and would only have to worry about #1D in next year’s draft. If we were able to get Celebrini and let’s say Buium this year, our future looks like:

Musty-Celebrini-X
Eklund-Smith-X
X-Hertl-Bystedt

Buium-X
Mukhamadullin-X
Thrun-Emberson

Get that #1D via 2025 draft, trade or sign UFAs for wingers and the last top-4 D, take a couple of years of growing pains for the young guys, then you’re looking competitive assuming guys hit their average expected outcome.
Situations I'd be keeping an eye on in the years to come to try and fill some of the empty spots in the lineup: can Buffalo keep Quinn, Peterka, Benson, Savoie, Kulich and Ostlund long term given their commitments to Thompson. Cozens, Dahlin, Power, Skinner, Samuelsson, etc.? And will the Devils be able to keep Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec (I think we know which one they would pick) with Jack, Timo, Hischier, Bratt and Hamilton already on the books?
 
Situations I'd be keeping an eye on in the years to come to try and fill some of the empty spots in the lineup: can Buffalo keep Quinn, Peterka, Benson, Savoie, Kulich and Ostlund long term given their commitments to Thompson. Cozens, Dahlin, Power, Skinner, Samuelsson, etc.? And will the Devils be able to keep Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec (I think we know which one they would pick) with Jack, Timo, Hischier, Bratt and Hamilton already on the books?
Buffalo should be fine, 25 mil next year, 36 the year after, 45, 54, 54 for the next 5 years without any raises to the cap after the 2nd year.
 
That's assuming rosters of 11, 8, 5, 4 and 4 players...
And also assuming the cap will go up at the least 2+ million each of those years, so signing 2-3 maybe 4 players long term is easily done when you have 45-50% of the cap free to do it with.
 
Situations I'd be keeping an eye on in the years to come to try and fill some of the empty spots in the lineup: can Buffalo keep Quinn, Peterka, Benson, Savoie, Kulich and Ostlund long term given their commitments to Thompson. Cozens, Dahlin, Power, Skinner, Samuelsson, etc.? And will the Devils be able to keep Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec (I think we know which one they would pick) with Jack, Timo, Hischier, Bratt and Hamilton already on the books?
Yeah, I really like both of those teams as potential offersheet targets in ~2-3 years. I really think up and coming teams should take advantage of the offersheet mechanic. Or obviously as a discounted trade target.
 
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McDavid is 27 and they were bad for numerous years. Outside of getting lucky in the draft, it's super important the GM makes the right moves at the right time.

Otherwise you end up with horrible contracts like Neal, Lucic, Nurse, Kasian, Campbell, etc etc. (I'm watching the oilers game right now 🙂)

This is my concern. Look at those horrible contracts Pat Verbeek gave out.
 
I'd rather have another round in the chamber next year tbh.

Also can someone explain the Hagens love? Was Misa not supposed to be the #1 in 2025?
totally agree.

I'm rooting for pittsburgh to fail hard this year. I don't think they'll be better next year .The risk of downgrading from 11-12 -> 20 if they turn it around is /totally/ worth a potential top 5
 
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