Toggle sidebar

2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

  • Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
Status
Not open for further replies.
DG93 said:
His upside is lower because of his low offensive capabilities. If we're worried about Silayev being a black box due to KHL reasons, just take Levshunov and forget about it. He's an excellent prospect.
Click to expand...
I think it's underselling Dickinson and overselling Levshunov. They're both future NHLers, and both in the top 5 discussion, but Dickinson is ppg on a high scoring team but has a whole lot of puck skill, a heavy shot, and pretty solid playmaking. Just watched my second Dickinson game and he plays a complete defensive game, including some offensive threat, and only a few bad decisions on transition zone passing and zone exits.

Levshunov is super smooth, rangy, big, has offensive flash, but every time I watch him he just looks lacksadaisical and behind the play, especially in his own end. I think he could get exposed as the play level increases. I just watched every shift of the second Notre Dame game, and while he looks very naturally athletic and had a nice snipe, he was very fortunate not to be the primary cause of two goals against. He's sharpest on the offensive blue line, roves well around the ice effortlessly, but I don't see him actually understanding the play or being ahead of it.

I think of them very much in the same breath right now but for my preferences, as of right now before any playoffs or NCAA tournament I'd prefer Dickinson for the more complete game. It's super close and I could see it going either way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: timorous me, CaptainShark, Sandisfan and 1 other person
coooldude said:
I think it's underselling Dickinson and overselling Levshunov. They're both future NHLers, and both in the top 5 discussion, but Dickinson is ppg on a high scoring team but has a whole lot of puck skill, a heavy shot, and pretty solid playmaking. Just watched my second Dickinson game and he plays a complete defensive game, including some offensive threat, and only a few bad decisions on transition zone passing and zone exits.

Levshunov is super smooth, rangy, big, has offensive flash, but every time I watch him he just looks lacksadaisical and behind the play, especially in his own end. I think he could get exposed as the play level increases. I just watched every shift of the second Notre Dame game, and while he looks very naturally athletic and had a nice snipe, he was very fortunate not to be the primary cause of two goals against. He's sharpest on the offensive blue line, roves well around the ice effortlessly, but I don't see him actually understanding the play or being ahead of it.

I think of them very much in the same breath right now but for my preferences, as of right now before any playoffs or NCAA tournament I'd prefer Dickinson for the more complete game. It's super close and I could see it going either way.
Click to expand...

Dickinson's game lends itself more favorably to me. Just feels more complete. More competitive. Better defensively. Better skater.

I don't know where I lay on Levshunov, I have him closer to Parekh and Buium. I don't know if any of them will be all situations dominators.

Dickinson feels like the closest thing to that in his position in this class.
 
  • Wow
  • Like
Reactions: CaptainShark and Sandisfan
coooldude said:
I think it's underselling Dickinson and overselling Levshunov. They're both future NHLers, and both in the top 5 discussion, but Dickinson is ppg on a high scoring team but has a whole lot of puck skill, a heavy shot, and pretty solid playmaking. Just watched my second Dickinson game and he plays a complete defensive game, including some offensive threat, and only a few bad decisions on transition zone passing and zone exits.

Levshunov is super smooth, rangy, big, has offensive flash, but every time I watch him he just looks lacksadaisical and behind the play, especially in his own end. I think he could get exposed as the play level increases. I just watched every shift of the second Notre Dame game, and while he looks very naturally athletic and had a nice snipe, he was very fortunate not to be the primary cause of two goals against. He's sharpest on the offensive blue line, roves well around the ice effortlessly, but I don't see him actually understanding the play or being ahead of it.

I think of them very much in the same breath right now but for my preferences, as of right now before any playoffs or NCAA tournament I'd prefer Dickinson for the more complete game. It's super close and I could see it going either way.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but Levshunov's upside is a legit #1D...Dickinson doesn't have that even now. He screams more of a minute-munching #3D (maybe complementary top pair guy), and I'd prefer to go for upside.
 
  • Wow
  • Like
Reactions: CaptainShark and Sandisfan
coooldude said:
I think the upside is Pietrangelo (4th overall) who was an under PPG D man in the OHL.

I'm more concerned about Levshunov's floor.
Click to expand...
Except scoring for juniors, and especially defensemen, has changed a lot in the last 15 years. It used to be that a defenseman going PPG in the OHL in their draft year was practically unheard of, now it’s like any defenseman worth anything is putting up a PPG in his draft year. I mean, Luca Cagnoni put up a PPG last year and got drafted in the 4th round for his efforts. Defenseman are twice as involved in offense nowadays as they were back then—remember how insane Mike Green’s 70-something point season was in 2010? Now there’s like five defensemen over a point per game and it’s kinda meh. This all trickles down to junior hockey as well.

You’re also missing a lot of context with Dickinson. Not only does he play on the absolutely bonkers London Knights, but he plays a lot of minutes with the other top players on the Knights, including his defense partner, Oliver Bonk, who is out-pacing him comfortably and is better defensively at this time as well. No one is projecting Bonk as a top-pairing guy.

Dickinson gets a lot of his points from stretch passes and basic point play. So he does have the puck skills to be a #2 guy. But he absolutely does not have the offensive skills of Alex Pietrangelo.

Moreover, I don’t think Dickinson is excellent defensively right now. He’s solid, but I’m often left questioning his defensive decision-making. Not as often as Levshunov, naturally, but that’s more because of Levshunov’s aggressive play-style than because I think Dickinson has really high defensive hockey IQ.

Could Dickinson become a true #1D? I don’t know. But I definitely wouldn’t put money on it. Middle pairing defensemen are available for trade every single season if your pro scouts do their homework. #1D’s aren’t, and Levshunov clearly has that upside. That’s what separates the two to me.

The fact is that other than Celebrini, you could poke holes in the game of every single prospect in this draft. Eiserman is too one-dimensional, Levshunov can make some questionable lazy defensive miscues, Dickinson may not have huge upside, Lindstrom may not continue his upward trajectory and just ends up as a complementary wing, Catton might not thrive when he’s not “the guy” on his team and has size concerns, Demidov might not be suited for the NA style game, Silayev might just be a big guy who can skate well, Parekh doesn’t play defense, Buium’s skating is questionable, Helenius’ offense may not be effective in the NHL, etc. etc. ad. nauseam.

That’s why it’ll be a tough job for scouts to distill something from this nonsense and presumably why they get paid to do it, unlike me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JBeast, CupfortheSharks, fasterthanlight and 8 others
Juxtaposer said:
Except scoring for juniors, and especially defensemen, has changed a lot in the last 15 years. It used to be that a defenseman going PPG in the OHL in their draft year was practically unheard of, now it’s like any defenseman worth anything is putting up a PPG in his draft year. I mean, Luca Cagnoni put up a PPG last year and got drafted in the 4th round for his efforts. Defenseman are twice as involved in offense nowadays as they were back then—remember how insane Mike Green’s 70-something point season was in 2010? Now there’s like five defensemen over a point per game and it’s kinda meh. This all trickles down to junior hockey as well.

You’re also missing a lot of context with Dickinson. Not only does he play on the absolutely bonkers London Knights, but he plays a lot of minutes with the other top players on the Knights, including his defense partner, Oliver Bonk, who is out-pacing him comfortably and is better defensively at this time as well. No one is projecting Bonk as a top-pairing guy.

Dickinson gets a lot of his points from stretch passes and basic point play. So he does have the puck skills to be a #2 guy. But he absolutely does not have the offensive skills of Alex Pietrangelo.

Moreover, I don’t think Dickinson is excellent defensively right now. He’s solid, but I’m often left questioning his defensive decision-making. Not as often as Levshunov, naturally, but that’s more because of Levshunov’s aggressive play-style than because I think Dickinson has really high defensive hockey IQ.

Could Dickinson become a true #1D? I don’t know. But I definitely wouldn’t put money on it. Middle pairing defensemen are available for trade every single season if your pro scouts do their homework. #1D’s aren’t, and Levshunov clearly has that upside. That’s what separates the two to me.

The fact is that other than Celebrini, you could poke holes in the game of every single prospect in this draft. Eiserman is too one-dimensional, Levshunov can make some questionable lazy defensive miscues, Dickinson may not have huge upside, Lindstrom may not continue his upward trajectory and just ends up as a complementary wing, Catton might not thrive when he’s not “the guy” on his team and has size concerns, Demidov might not be suited for the NA style game, Silayev might just be a big guy who can skate well, Parekh doesn’t play defense, Buium’s skating is questionable, Helenius’ offense may not be effective in the NHL, etc. etc. ad. nauseam.

That’s why it’ll be a tough job for scouts to distill something from this nonsense and presumably why they get paid to do it, unlike me.
Click to expand...
Yeah, all fair. I'm not missing any of that context, I know and understand it. But Bonk is over a year older and Luca is not 6'3" as a 17 year old.

Your point and also mine consistently is that there isn't really a consensus after Celebrini. I happen to dislike Lev's flavor more than others and I'd only want to take him in the 4+ range. I'm not sold on Dickinson either, I just don't think it's clear between the two where others talk about it like it is.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Sandisfan and CaptainShark
coooldude said:
Yeah, all fair. I'm not missing any of that context, I know and understand it. But Bonk is over a year older and Luca is not 6'3" as a 17 year old.

Your point and also mine consistently is that there isn't really a consensus after Celebrini. I happen to dislike Lev's flavor more than others and I'd only want to take him in the 4+ range. I'm not sold on Dickinson either, I just don't think it's clear between the two where others talk about it like it is.
Click to expand...
If you understand the context, then I don’t see how you can compare Dickinson to Pietrangelo. Yes, Pietrangelo is also a big guy with excellent skating, but that’s where the comparison ends for me. Pietrangelo has high-end hockey IQ and puck skills, whereas I’d only rank Dickinson above average in those categories.

I do respect that you’re more risk-adverse than I am, but I just really don’t like the Pietrangelo comparison for Dickinson and think it gives folks an overinflated idea of Dickinson’s upside. And upside is really what sets Levshunov apart in my eyes. But like I said, Dickinson is a good player with a high floor and if we can’t get Celebrini or Levshunov he’s probably the right pick.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CaptainShark
Juxtaposer said:
If you understand the context, then I don’t see how you can compare Dickinson to Pietrangelo. Yes, Pietrangelo is also a big guy with excellent skating, but that’s where the comparison ends for me. Pietrangelo has high-end hockey IQ and puck skills, whereas I’d only rank Dickinson above average in those categories.

I do respect that you’re more risk-adverse than I am, but I just really don’t like the Pietrangelo comparison for Dickinson and think it gives folks an overinflated idea of Dickinson’s upside. And upside is really what sets Levshunov apart in my eyes. But like I said, Dickinson is a good player with a high floor and if we can’t get Celebrini or Levshunov he’s probably the right pick.
Click to expand...
Firstly, I said ceiling not comp. I don't think Pietrangelo is a normal expectation.

Second, I wonder if people would have said Pietrangelo had elite hockey IQ and puck skills when he was drafted in 2008, versus just above average in both. I wasn't paying attention to the blues, but a consistent 40-50 point D man isn't lifting anyone's eyebrows in the West when Doughty and Burns are doing their thing back then 2009-17. I don't think people saw him as a game defining D man until he captained the blues to a Cup, and even then it's his complete game that defines him.

I'm not necessarily risk averse. I said multiple times that I don't know who I'd pick of the two of them. Probably Levshunov gun to my head, but I would then assume an Erik Johnson or Dion Phaneuf outcome which again, to me, is a bit of a disappointment out of a 2-4OA pick. Upside higher, sure, but not expected.

For that reason I might actually be slowly leaning towards a Lindstrom preference at 2-3, but that also comes with big questions. It's not a great year to be picking 2-3 in many ways. Your decision kind of gets made for you at 4-5. We still do have a bit of hockey left to sort it out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CaptainShark
coooldude said:
Firstly, I said ceiling not comp. I don't think Pietrangelo is a normal expectation.

Second, I wonder if people would have said Pietrangelo had elite hockey IQ and puck skills when he was drafted in 2008, versus just above average in both. I wasn't paying attention to the blues, but a consistent 40-50 point D man isn't lifting anyone's eyebrows in the West when Doughty and Burns are doing their thing back then 2009-17. I don't think people saw him as a game defining D man until he captained the blues to a Cup, and even then it's his complete game that defines him.

I'm not necessarily risk averse. I said multiple times that I don't know who I'd pick of the two of them. Probably Levshunov gun to my head, but I would then assume an Erik Johnson or Dion Phaneuf outcome which again, to me, is a bit of a disappointment out of a 2-4OA pick. Upside higher, sure, but not expected.

For that reason I might actually be slowly leaning towards a Lindstrom preference at 2-3, but that also comes with big questions. It's not a great year to be picking 2-3 in many ways. Your decision kind of gets made for you at 4-5. We still do have a bit of hockey left to sort it out.
Click to expand...
Pietrangelo was compared to Niklas Lidstrom in his rookie year. It was the Karlsson vs. Pietrangelo debate everywhere you looked in 2010-2012. He was pretty much considered a top-10 defenseman in the league from the get-go. Other than his 18 and 19 year old seasons, where he played 8 and 9 games in the NHL respectively like Eklund did the last two years, Pietrangelo has never average less than 22 minutes a game and has never had a season +/- of less than -2 in his whole career. He put up 43 points as a 20 year old in 2011 and he was considered a true #1D ever since, including playing significant minutes for the stacked 2014 gold-medal-winning Olympic Team Canada.

It’s true that Pietrangelo didn’t have Burns/Karlsson-level offensive skills, but other than those guys, who does? My point is that Pietrangelo has always been that good. I don’t see any scenario where Dickinson becomes that good.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CaptainShark
Juxtaposer said:
Pietrangelo was compared to Niklas Lidstrom in his rookie year. It was the Karlsson vs. Pietrangelo debate everywhere you looked in 2010-2012. He was pretty much considered a top-10 defenseman in the league from the get-go. Other than his 18 and 19 year old seasons, where he played 8 and 9 games in the NHL respectively like Eklund did the last two years, Pietrangelo has never average less than 22 minutes a game and has never had a season +/- of less than -2 in his whole career. He put up 43 points as a 20 year old in 2011 and he was considered a true #1D ever since, including playing significant minutes for the stacked 2014 gold-medal-winning Olympic Team Canada.

It’s true that Pietrangelo didn’t have Burns/Karlsson-level offensive skills, but other than those guys, who does? My point is that Pietrangelo has always been that good. I don’t see any scenario where Dickinson becomes that good.
Click to expand...
Look, you speak with a lot of conviction, but we're a little off topic and anyway I'm not quite sure it was as cut and dry as you're portraying. For one, I'm never going to be as confident as you are about this, about anything related to a player's future. I'm not sure how you could be this confident about it as we are all amateurs (as you said) and pros don't know the future either. For two, here's one thread (there were others) where he wasn't being compared to Lidstrom nor Karlsson. I'm pretty sure everyone in 2012 was talking about Keith, Pronger, Doughty, etc.

Alex Pietrangelo?

I see people are talking about OEL, Karlsson, Subban, and sometime even Del Zotto alot. But how come peoples never talk about Alex Pietrangelo? He have done quite a bit as a future player so far. The things he accomplished: WJC best d-men under-20 2010. THN Future Watch #1 guy 2010. And...
forums.hfboards.com forums.hfboards.com

My point remains that both of them are going to make me feel more nervous than excited coming off the board as a hopeful "franchise defining defenseman." Silayev probably has a lower median outcome but an overall highest ceiling. I'll see any of them as likely helpful pieces, with big risk both ways, and hope for the best. Just about like how I feel about Smith.
 
  • Like
Reactions: themelkman, timorous me, Sandisfan and 1 other person
Juxtaposer, cooldude, everyone else who took part in that last exchange: as you can see by me turning into full sandisfan, I really enjoy your back and forth and don’t agree that it’s off topic. Where else would we discuss who to pick if it’s not 1OA? Keep it going.

As someone who doesn’t have the time to watch prospects himself, I try to read as much as possible (here, main board, draft lists by sports-writers) to make a half educated draft-list for myself.

While doing that, I don’t have a structured approach, it’s more or less just going by my gut (formed by others peoples opinions :laugh:).

Most interesting part for me is you explaining on which principles you base your decisions (eg: upside over floor).
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Jargon, Sandisfan and Juxtaposer
Juxtaposer said:
Except scoring for juniors, and especially defensemen, has changed a lot in the last 15 years. It used to be that a defenseman going PPG in the OHL in their draft year was practically unheard of, now it’s like any defenseman worth anything is putting up a PPG in his draft year. I mean, Luca Cagnoni put up a PPG last year and got drafted in the 4th round for his efforts. Defenseman are twice as involved in offense nowadays as they were back then—remember how insane Mike Green’s 70-something point season was in 2010? Now there’s like five defensemen over a point per game and it’s kinda meh. This all trickles down to junior hockey as well.

You’re also missing a lot of context with Dickinson. Not only does he play on the absolutely bonkers London Knights, but he plays a lot of minutes with the other top players on the Knights, including his defense partner, Oliver Bonk, who is out-pacing him comfortably and is better defensively at this time as well. No one is projecting Bonk as a top-pairing guy.

Dickinson gets a lot of his points from stretch passes and basic point play. So he does have the puck skills to be a #2 guy. But he absolutely does not have the offensive skills of Alex Pietrangelo.

Moreover, I don’t think Dickinson is excellent defensively right now. He’s solid, but I’m often left questioning his defensive decision-making. Not as often as Levshunov, naturally, but that’s more because of Levshunov’s aggressive play-style than because I think Dickinson has really high defensive hockey IQ.

Could Dickinson become a true #1D? I don’t know. But I definitely wouldn’t put money on it. Middle pairing defensemen are available for trade every single season if your pro scouts do their homework. #1D’s aren’t, and Levshunov clearly has that upside. That’s what separates the two to me.

The fact is that other than Celebrini, you could poke holes in the game of every single prospect in this draft. Eiserman is too one-dimensional, Levshunov can make some questionable lazy defensive miscues, Dickinson may not have huge upside, Lindstrom may not continue his upward trajectory and just ends up as a complementary wing, Catton might not thrive when he’s not “the guy” on his team and has size concerns, Demidov might not be suited for the NA style game, Silayev might just be a big guy who can skate well, Parekh doesn’t play defense, Buium’s skating is questionable, Helenius’ offense may not be effective in the NHL, etc. etc. ad. nauseam.

That’s why it’ll be a tough job for scouts to distill something from this nonsense and presumably why they get paid to do it, unlike me.
Click to expand...
I do think there's a real concern about scouts picking players not to get fired, or GMs showing a lack of patience in this draft.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Great Makohead Shork and Sandisfan
coooldude said:
Look, you speak with a lot of conviction, but we're a little off topic and anyway I'm not quite sure it was as cut and dry as you're portraying. For one, I'm never going to be as confident as you are about this, about anything related to a player's future. I'm not sure how you could be this confident about it as we are all amateurs (as you said) and pros don't know the future either. For two, here's one thread (there were others) where he wasn't being compared to Lidstrom nor Karlsson. I'm pretty sure everyone in 2012 was talking about Keith, Pronger, Doughty, etc.

Alex Pietrangelo?

I see people are talking about OEL, Karlsson, Subban, and sometime even Del Zotto alot. But how come peoples never talk about Alex Pietrangelo? He have done quite a bit as a future player so far. The things he accomplished: WJC best d-men under-20 2010. THN Future Watch #1 guy 2010. And...
forums.hfboards.com forums.hfboards.com

My point remains that both of them are going to make me feel more nervous than excited coming off the board as a hopeful "franchise defining defenseman." Silayev probably has a lower median outcome but an overall highest ceiling. I'll see any of them as likely helpful pieces, with big risk both ways, and hope for the best. Just about like how I feel about Smith.
Click to expand...
Hell, even the pros themselves are often proved wrong, let alone fools like us. We're talking about 17 and 18 year olds who have so much development, both physical and mental, to do in the next few years. So the more information and conversation the better!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Great Makohead Shork and Sandisfan
So I was reading some quotes from Couture the other day, and he said he doesn't want to be traded and wanted to stay here. This is a guy that hasn't won a cup his entire career and he doesn't want to go to a contender to have a last chance to battle for a cup. There's no drive, no ambition. Not sure if that's a leader that what you want your youngsters to look up to.
 
  • Haha
  • Wow
  • Like
Reactions: themelkman, Great Makohead Shork, Sandisfan and 3 others
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom