Thanks for sharing your list, and agreed with your scenarios for the most part. Two questions for you:
1) What gives you the clarity on Levshunov? I don't read or see the separation from the other top D -- he has top end tools and he's young but he's suspect in his own zone, to say the least, and generally doesn't pop off with good decision making on tape (if anything, the latter). If he did, I would say he'd be clear #2 or potentially in the convo for #1 but as is, I would have expected to see him in your tier 3 group.
Some of the criticism of Levshunov is his pace, which I think it a fair criticism, but I actually don’t think that pace is an important aspect for defensemen like it is for forwards. I actually almost prefer to see defensemen who are calm and collected, as opposed to the “chased by bees” style which can be very effective for forwards. For me, it comes down to this: Lev has the highest upside, he’s got size, he’s got the scoring, he’s right-handed, he’s raw but already good, and his work ethic is there. Yes, he can make some bone-headed decisions at times, but the highs of his game are so good and his tools allow him to recover from his mistakes surprisingly well. If anyone is going to be a #1D from this draft, I think it will be Levshunov. Yakemchuk and Parekh also have super high upside, but without the obvious floor of Levshunov to me.
2) Understood on Dickinson playing on a loaded team, and maybe being 4th best on that team (I don't watch enough to really have an opinion), but he is also 2nd youngest after Brzustewicz and showing some elite spikes of his own
e.g. here (beating Parekh, notably, in these skating drills). If the Pietrangelo ceiling is fair, that's a great player to have that is absolutely necessary on a winning team and probably contributes more to a winning team than a scoring winger. Although, I suppose you do have him in Tier 3 so maybe that's all priced in! If he were showing much more offensive spike, he'd also probably be clear 2OA.
Dickinson has elite size and elite skating, that’s absolutely true. He’s very good defensively but I would argue that he isn’t elite defensively in the OHL. He’s very casual in the same way that Levshunov can be but without the highlight reel upside Lev has. If Dickinson showed me high-end offense in the OHL, I would probably move him up with Levshunov, but I have never seen any kind of plus-plus offense from Dickinson. He’ll be a capable puck-mover and capable of 40 points a season, but just because he’s a good player and not because he’s an offensive driver.
FWIW it sounds like Yakemchuk might continue his climb, and Iggy as well. If that happens I'd personally expect to see them either join the group, or displace Helenius/Buium/Silayev (who I just learned has been playing 6D minutes in the second half of the season). Buium's knock is that he also plays on an extremely high scoring team and his blue line escapes and shiftiness he's known for might not work at the next level.
I really just hope someone from 2-15 has a great next 3-4 months to generate some clear separation...
It wouldn’t shock me at all if Yakemchuk and Iginla both went top-10. Yakemchuk stylistically plays a lot like Brent Burns, except that he’s two inches shorter than Burns and doesn’t have Burns’ elite skating. Burns was a bit of a unicorn in his prime, so I don’t think it’s really fair to project that onto Yakemchuk, but he’s definitely got high high upside.
I also really love Iginla. His game style is going to make him a fan favorite for whoever drafts him without a doubt. Not only is he an incredibly hard-worker who is tenacious on the puck, but he’s also a great one-on-one attacker and has a rocket of a shot. He’s really fun to watch and kinda marries all the best qualities of Zach Benson and Ryan Leonard. If he keeps scoring at this pace he could go as high as 6th, IMO. Helluva player.
Someone will shake loose at the Pens pick. If Iginla and Yakemchuk go top-10, then maybe Parekh or Helenius or Catton drops. Hell, if Eiserman were around at 11th, that would be crazy.
